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TinGull
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Posts posted by TinGull
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And XLF...the Select Sector Financials spdr is showing a nice hammer with good volume to it. Oughtta be interesting.
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Well, the IWM chart you show marks out the exact trade I'm currently working. My short legs are at 72 and 86.
The SPY chart you show marks out almost exactly the trade I'm currently in. My short legs there are at 143 and 158. So, pretty much you're right on. With the current market conditions I'd say they're pretty much right on for doing these iron condors. We're seeing very whippy, volatile action without any real direction. ICs are directionless plays.
So...it is really that easy. You could certainly "leg into" an IC if you wanted, by selling a call vertical when price is at the top of an area you think it will respect, and then wait for it to venture down to the bottom to enter a put vertical and complete the IC. I tend to enter them all at once when market conditions warrant. If the market is trending like it was last year and half of this year, I'd be looking just at selling put verticals since the odds were with the market to go up.
Anyhow...you're seeing things right. The R/R really SUCKS on IC's, but the probabilities really play in your favor and as long as you know how to manage a trade and have a plan of attack when price gets to a S/R level you're watching...then you'll do fine.
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Las Vegas Sands
Ebay finished looking real good yesterday. A gap up Monday would confirm as well as a gap up on LVS
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Another great day for time decay! The SPY position is sitting real nice and pretty, and I'll be putting a position on the IWM hopefully monday for a fill. Currently working a 88/86/72/70 Iron Condor with a wicked sweet spot. Overall the vol puts me at an 80% chance of expiring worthless come DEC expiration. Is this a beautiful trade? Absolutely! At a .75 credit, this is giving me a return of nearly 52% on the risk. Totally cool. The current mark of this spread is sitting at .71, and looking for a little rise in IWM Monday to give me a fill in the AM.
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They do apply some sort of adjustment (they being TradeStation) to the end of the June/beginning of Sept contracts in order to mesh the 2 together. As for how they do it....I've got no idea. DTN couldn't figure it out either.
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Thanks. I try to keep everyone in line
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Welcome NeoTrader!! Glad to have you aboard
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This came up on my radar today...high volume on a major gap down right into 2 areas of support, and looks like it should be closing on it's highs if all stays the same today.
Also...Ebay
Gap down, closing on it's highs (so far) and should be an increase in volume, tho not a surge in volume...
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Had to point this one out on an intraday time frame. Just was so perfect!
It's IWM, the R2K etf
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IQ doesn't "blend" the data like Tradestation does for contract rollovers on continuous symbols. I used to grapple with the same issues when I was using dtn.
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Welcome and thanks for your contributions in advance
You should tell Gavin to squeak a copy of TradeGuider under my doorstep for hosting such a fabulous thread But I really do look forward to seeing your contributions. I'd love to know more about how VSA changed how you view things. What were you thinking about volume and spreads before grasping what VSA has to offer?
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Right in the middle of my sweetspot as of todays close. Very nice and am lovin' it. 2 weeks to expiry and these trades could be closed out next friday. Currently sitting at around a 10% gain on risk, looking to make up that next 10% in the next week.
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XME is interesting...had a real nice resistance point right around 68 bucks and then it broke on slightly increasing volume, and then the failed breakout. It's still in an uptrend channel, but will be interesting to see how this one pans out.
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Thanks
I think candles with VSA is a wonderful way to look at things. -
That whole move has been beautiful so far. As technically perfect as I could ask for! Now just would look to see it break its highs on volume.
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Maybe I get influenced by the candle formation being bullish as well and not worrying that it closes at the highs or not. Agreed, the next bar had higher volume and closed lower, but at the time of the test you don't know that bar has occurred yet. I still stand with my loose defs of tests, tho. Much easier for me to work with. When I see a hammer, I just think "bullish" and if it happens to test a support area on low volume...all the better for me.
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Looks like a nice play...no telling what else the financials have to go through, but technically it looks sound.
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Nick...good start there. What I would say is that the spread was teeny showing no professional interest to continue the up move. If no one wants to continue the upmove, then the path of least resistance is DOWN. The next candle is DOWN on higher volume and then your last chance to get in is that low volume UP candle closing at the highs (4 candles after this doji) showing that there's no demand in this market. Then it heads down. Your analysis was great, tho.
As for where I found that resistance, you can see the previous high to the left on that chart.
And James, had that volume been very strong and it was still a small spread....my stance would be the same. If you have ULTRA high volume and a narrow spread, what's happening there? There is a lot of volume being traded in a small range. Theory is...if a lot of buying volume is happening, it's being done by the smaller players while the pros are selling into resistance, which is what you normally do see. The amount of selling indicated by the high volume is very telling for the strength of the eminent down move, IMO.
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Is this a little closer to what you'd want to see? I realize it's not right at the highs of the bar for a close, but in the upper third anyhow. It comes down to test the high of that SUPER high volume up bar.
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YM, ES and DJIA Analysis
in The Candlestick Corner
Posted
Just another chart of this long term resistance/support at 31.00