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TinGull
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Posts posted by TinGull
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Also just got filled on a call vertical that I sold on SOLF for 40 cents, 17.6% return with 76% probability based on the vols.
It's a DEC and any close under the top of that range we've got will give me max profit. Note, too, IV is really pushing high. These folks report earnings on Tuesday and right now it's looking like "smart money" knows what those earnings are gonna be and they want to be poised for taking it lower. When the report is released and vol gets crushed even if earnings are good I won't get hit too hard with it. High odds setup here.
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It's all good
Love the Q's cause it makes me think. I was talking with another one of the guys on the board earlier and he pointed out, too, that there is TONS of volume sitting right overhead. It's gonna take some intense buying to push things through that. -
Right...I don't know that there is a difference. More people just know about condors and iron condors rather than iron butterflies. Could've been the other way around, I suppose, too. Both IB and IC have wide sweetspots whereas a regular butterfly will have its max profit at a specific price. I really just like a couple different strategies rather than learn the myriad of them. ICs and regular verticals, calendars and just learning about diagonals. I'm cool with not having to guess the exact direction or strength of the directional trade.
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I see the weakness as inability to follow through on that very first WRB on ultra high volume that started this last range. When price couldn't follow thru and just ranged and then fell thru the bottom of that range, that to me is weakness. Now price has come back to test the bottom of that range and is doing so on low volume.
As for intraday access, I do have that. I try not to sit and watch all the time, tho...sometimes I get a little trigger happy and don't let things follow thru.
I try and get a little bigger picture than the last UHV bar. For this example, its the range and then break down of that range and testing it on lower volume.
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welcome to the club!
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Hmmm....having 2nd thoughts on this trade today going into the weekend. A break of yesterdays highs would certainly get me out of the trade, but it looks like there's no supply right now. There does seem to be weakness in the background tho, so that gets me wondering other things. Gotta love it. What do you all think about this chart?
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Nice chart jj.
Here's a nice squat at WRB support....just happened this morning.
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You could get that thru any charting service such as tradestation, InvestorRT, eSignal...Market Profile won't be thru just anyone, tho. I happen to like IRT for MP stuff. If you're looking for it for free....best of luck to you.
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Nice work. I bought some DEC puts for a quick down play on SOLF
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candles and volume. That's all one really needs. You can draw your own S/R lines from market generated price action (which is the best anyways).
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Nice writeup, ranj. I initiated a short on it about 15 minutes ago at 12.51 (that was the stock price...I actually entered an options play) and am looking for those lows, too. We'll see...I've got a DEC position on so I might roll it out if price doesn't reach there in the next 2 weeks.
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I'd been getting into WRB as S/R lately after reading and reading and reading stuff from Pivot and NihabaAshi...just wanted to post a picture perfect chart from just now...
Beautiful how the WRB provided resistance. Really is quite amazing after looking through tons and tons of charts today, seeing how that happens time and time again.
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ranj, very sweet...very very nice.
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Nice spinning top at an old support/now resistance and also resistance from the top of a WRB. Note it's also happening on low volume....
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To follow up on the chart from yesterday....bam, nice gap down.
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Already got short the cash index at 1488, and again at the close at 1478. Tuesday hard rally on light volume was enough for me to get that done.
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Currently working....
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In the face of this bullish rampage...gotta remember 1490 on SPX. Was resistance, then support, and a heavy support at that...and we broke through that and are now at 1490 again....
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Squat's are dojis on a narrow range, I believe.
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Well, this isn't always a fun thing to have to talk about...got stopped on my put spreads from the SPY iron condor. My short strike was at 143 and 141 and after yesterdays closing action after trying to mount a relief rally during the day...I decided it'd be better to cut those trades loose now rather than risk the loss. I always want to close out 4-7 days prior to expiration anyhow, and this was the 4th day prior to it, so my rules would dictate me getting out then anyhow.
So, close the trade and when combined with the credit given from the call spread, I ended up losing a penny per contract. Basically break even. Sucks to have to wait for a few weeks to pass and then you get nothing. BUT, it's better than getting a big loss.
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Ok, I've exported data into 1 minute segments but the spreadsheet still isn't seeing the data.
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Possible, although, I think it's more coming from the data you're using rather than from Excel 2007.Maybe you could send me the data you're trying to use so I can check on my version to see if it works?
I'm just using the same spreadsheet that you uploaded...no other data. Is that the problem perhaps?
[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part I
in Volume Spread Analysis
Posted
Nice...thanks guys. Thanks for that chart JJ...I appreciate it.
ranj, I'm already short this in 2 ways, basically hedged in volatility. Currently sitting on a small loss, but am pretty confident after seeing the close today and the complete lack of volume today.