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Predictor
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Everything posted by Predictor
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The dynamic we're seeing now is short sellers driving into resting limit order institutions and then those short sellers are forced to cover... This creates the typical pullback pattern in trends. So its not enough just to look at if there are a lot of market orders being executed but the context is important. I was looking for that push drive myself but I just missed it by 1 tick. When too many traders get one sided then by the mere fact they need to clear creates reversals.. just like puts in options.
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Well push may be the wrong word... the LQ providers can take on so much inventory. Depending on whether they want more or less inventory will determine how they adjust their books.... They are pretty big and can absorb a lot of market orders. As observed today... there was a lot of selling at these most recent highs but they just took them and market is now moving higher. I was probably out of that 1 by 1 tick.... sometimes it happens They aren't the only traders sitting at limit though. The limit orders influence market strongly and this is something that few people understand. Institutions also sit at limit and define ranges... But obvoiusly the LQ providers want to drive price a bit so they can get flat... this is why you will often see the market move up just a point or so before dumping. There are other dynamics involved... including the dynamic between the instiutions and scalpers.
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I'm out. Shorts have regained control. I could have saved about 4 ticks on that one. We may go higher but I have to protect my profits now. Today.. I took a small loss.. from a big loss to a small loss is I guess pretty good. I was at break even at the highs. I pushed that trade far enough.
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Over 3,000 sells were executed into 36.50 without driving it even 1 tick. Market pop 3 ticks. 36.50 is important to hold. The market is getting tenuous here but if price moves against those market orders then they'll be forced to cover...
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DOW has broken out to new highs. NASDAQ has broken to new highs. I track highs/lows carefully. Some negative orderflow present in ES from 38 to 37. I except this to reverse quickly and new highs to follow but if it doesn't I will look to protect profits. If AAPL keeps moving up then equities buy programs should kick in and drive the ES higher... some locals/institutions have started to short... Shorts getting more aggressive. May take profit soon.
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Again, I use specialized tools for understanding the action in the market beyond price. I don't believe price is meaningless. I believe it is extremely useful but is most useful when understood in relation to other variables. I don't claim to understand it all. For example, I don't understand why the volume in ES has been so unidirectional lately. We've seen just very one sided order flow up and down lately and that's a bit unique and may be causing me some problems. Sometimes high volume will attract high volume. This is especially true late day where one will see huge orders going off on both sides and not even moving price. My interpretation is that some large institutions don't even use price in their trading. They are just looking for the liquidity to execute against. That was evident in the algorithms that were used during the flash crash.. So if we have an institutions wanting to short vs another wanting to long, we will get high volume without much meaning on the price. All the indices are green. When an index is above the open then buy programs will often trigger.. We may also see some stop runs shortly.
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I am up in a good deal of profit now from my last long position. AAPL continues to move up and was already beat down. Most other instruments are showing a strong rally. Because of this, I believe that new highs above 40.25 could be in play. However, it is important to keep an eye on risk...
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Again.. not in my opinion... I actually had success with every technical method except for market profile before I realized it was just a graphing method and not a trading method. Market profile tries to represent what a "floor trader" sees in his mind. I only "got it" after I got the ability to understand volume on my own. It may look like this in hindsight but remember every trend starts into a low volume area. One has to understand whether we are talking about new initiated trade vs previous initiated trade in understanding volume. The understanding of this may give someone a much different perspective of what is going on. Likewise, it is important to understand how price and open trade (open volume) interact. How are liquidity providers interacting with market orders.. these are types of things I keep in mind. My recommendation do away with any market profile conventions and instead actually study what happens. You will learn what is happening vs what a book says should happen. Another example.. selling volume doesn't mean that the market will move lower nor buying volume higher. Sometimes selling volume will drive market higher.
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In my opinion there are 4 distinct players in futures market 1. Institutions -> Sit limit at extents of market and trigger programs to enter. 2. Liquidity Providers -> Push market around 1-2 points to trigger stop losses 3. Day Traders/Locals -> Drive market to institutions 4. Equities bots -> Unique behaviors.. can overrun institutions or be stopped by them. Each has a distinct method of working/trading... I don't believe there are enough retail traders in futures to even make a difference, just my opinion.
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The market can't be understood with such simple notions. They aren't useful. I find it more useful to WATCH and see what actually happens.. don't go from what you read. In range markets, it is not uncommon to find low volume at the extents of the range and higher volume in the middle but that isn't going to be true in all cases nor when understood in all time frames. I think about how the limit vs market order traders interact and how previous activity was formed. Someone has to provide liquidity for market traders to trade against... this is important and the interaction of the market traders vs the limit traders is important. The interaction between how the market moves in relation to the open trade is important. It is also critical to distinguish between new activity versus previous/recent activity to understand volume dynamics.. I learned all this from just studying the market. not any market profile crap..
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Neg, I understand. I'm watching AAPL right now. Its moving up. I use volume analysis, order flow analysis, and correlated markets. I look to identify day structure and look for patterns that indicate trend versus mean reversion. I find that just using volume levels doesn't provide a big edge but they are useful for setting targets and stops, and sometimes scalping. One of the things I'm watching is AAPL dragging down indices... if AAPL can base then there are several other sectors that are strong. Futures order flow is still troubling. As for understanding volume, again I suggest to look at how it acts when trend vs range... Caution against shorts here based on order flow. We have buying interest from 28.50 up.. ... I also read the tape using specialized tools. So, I'm watching a lot of data but most of all, I'm not reading single market charts like most other traders.
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I'm still seeing some signs the market may move higher. I'm long again based on evidence but close to my daily loss limit. I try to be aggressive when I think I'm right.. cut back when I'm wrong.
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Nice work. I use volume analysis (and order flow and some other things) in my trading. I'm not willing to share the details of my methods in public. But, I can say they don't fully agree with market profile but there are some good ideas there. One needs to look at whether the market is trending or ranging to really understand volume analysis...
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Stop out. I am moving closer to my daily loss limit. So I am shutting down. Most of my trades had good FA today but I just wasn't fast enough in taking the profits. I may take a break for the next several weeks, I'm working on some projects that's requiring a lot of my energy.
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Selling extremely one sided all the way from 40... I had hit my profit target but was pretty confident we were going higher. I'm in the red now and may be stopped out shortly. I've given this trade a bit more rope then usual.... Buying one sided from the 1333. I notice most buying/selling in ES is one sided. I exited at market.. A larger then usual loss. It seemed everything was in play for a great trade but this market is a challenging one. I just pushed it too far. This is a rather bearish market shaping up. Long again. Still see some possibility.... even if low
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I'm long. Today is looking to setup to be a possible big day to upside. I'm looking at 40.25 being taken out right now with my target somewhere above that. I think a retest of yesterday high may also be in play. Some aggressive selling off the 40ish area... not surprising on first push. I'm looking for a second push but ready to adapt.
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Sellers remain in control. Moved from exceeding my profit target to taking a small loss.. maybe seeking too much gain. I will evaluate.. probably not be making too many calls here.. distracts me and makes me less likely to take a small loss.
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Looks like new lows coming up shortly. Bid long. Previous call was good but seeing some buying now.
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I no longer like long side... offers are thick and selling is able to easily push price down. Will continue to monitor... perhaps some news broke about Deutsche bank?
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Market appears to be basing here. Strong buying interest at recent lows. Sellers seem to have lost interest. Strong selling coming in now. Unable to drive price. Possible liquidity trap developing.. could drive market back to 42s. So far just watching. Tempted to bid near lows. Still Long... Notice that NASDAQ has broken out and DOW too. Had good profits on that trade but let them slip... lost about 3 ticks. I was about 3 points. Bad management on my part. I do not like long side any more. I've started to lose, so shut down. Would have been very nice day for me too... as I had well exceeded my profit target. got sloppy or greedy. Finish below profit target.
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They pressuring the 40's.. if they take the 40's then a re-test in the 30's might be in play. If presented that could be a good opportunity to get long.. or an indication that my analysis was wrong and another trend down day is setting up. Fortunately, this early bird got the worm already. I still think we are rangebound. I notice that earnings appear to be a bit weak(?) that might be driving the market.
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Target met.. I could have got a bit more out of that. I'm close to my profit target today and so I will be slowing down... Bidding long... missed it. Looks like market is basing here and going to retest.. not going to chase. could have instant reversed that short for a scalp. Stopped out. I was at my profit target for day too. HFT bots flooded in front of my order. Long again. Profit target exceeded. Done for day.
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Yes, I considered that too. I'm currently short. See what develops. Target somewhere in the 40s..
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I'm looking for a range bound day today.. I will look for opportunities to buy low/sell high or maybe not trade. I don't see a lot to drive the market either way. It looks like we may retest the low 30's
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It was just a scalp for me. I don't know why any real trader would say they move their stop to BE as soon as possible. A lot of the time the market will retrace 100% before moving lower... The ES tends to have a buy surge before the bid drops. I didn't quite get what I wanted out of that trade.. fooled by the buy surge. I think too many herd are trying to get short today... making it more difficult. Met profit target for the day.. I feel good about closing here. my take is that there are a group of large traders, liquidity providers, in ES that can push the market maybe up to 2 points. But as soon as the LQ providers run into institutions they have to give up... and the institutions often define a range they sell into and sit limit... Bulls look willing to challenge 45.. if they take 45.. I'd not be surprised with a close around 44.50. Change that.. another short looks to be setting up.. if we break 42.25 maybe low 41's in play..