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MightyMouse
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Posts posted by MightyMouse
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The biggest chunk goes to banks, who manipulate the market, very small portion goes to traders that manage to profit.Banks make money until they lose all of it and then some, recognizing that they didn't have a handle on the risk they were taking.
Cycles of fear and greed over and over again. No one is immune.
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Good traders and bad traders take your money from you and keep it or give it to someone else, depending on how good or bad a trader they are.
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A priest is driving down the road when he comes across a pig lying dead in the road. He contacts the police to inform him of his find.
A cocky desk sergeant laughed and said " did you give it its last rites?"
"No", said the priest. " I thought I would inform his next of kin first".
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1. Too many people sucking on the goverment teet.
Do not think for a moment that I am referring only to the low income or impoverished. The wealthy or special interest groups snag a much bigger chunk than the poor do. he poor receive a pittance in comparison. We could easily fund the poor. We need to borrow to fund the wealthy.
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Hi,Trading is a hard task...
...I tried to watch a boxing fight to understand how to get beat up and still rise to get more and give some as well,
Stop trading in the markets. Trading in financial markets is a very advanced form of trading, no matter which instrument you trade. You are guaranteed to lose. If you are winning without knowing how to trade, it's because you are lucky. You might run out of luck.
Start trading other things: Cars, baseball cards, other collectibles, etc.Learn to spot value, desperation, over supply, tight demand, etc, etc. Learn to succeed in these markets, then decide if you would like to trade the financial markets.
When you trade, you are trading with other traders. Learn who they are, when they are desperate, over confident, foolish, etc. Then find indicators that wil help you locate those people who exhibit these behaviors and exploit them.
Financial markets are much more difficult because you can't see the other guy and need to learn how to find them, always keeping in mind that others are trying to snare you at the same time.
From the movie Rounders: When you are sitting at a table (poker) and you can't tell who the sucker is, then it's probably you.
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Trading without a stop loss is like driving without stopping at traffic lights. It may go faster, but you tremendously increase your chance of getting killed. :doh:Minimal losses is the key. If you are putting size on from the start, then a good stop is important. If you are starting really small. then the stop isn't that big a deal if the amount risk isn't a risk to your existence as a trader.
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The other way around. The dollar determines the value of Gold and most every other major tradable market in the world.Don't fight the fed ... until that no longer applies.
The fed moves (some say controls) the markets. What they say and what zdo says is all that matters.
I dread the day the fed is no longer in control.I don't think I will be around then.
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It is not as simple as that, gold is not only a commodity but a fear indicator, safe heaven and it represents real value of the currency.I think we'll see gold trading above 2k per ounce in the mid/long term future.
Simple supply and demand issues.
Lots and lots of supply created on the way up and maybe some more on the way down too.
Gold has a long way to go before the market works through all that supply.It will deal with the supply at lower and lower prices until all of it has been processed.
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Third, before you come within a country mile of leverage, you need to learn how to trade. Forex is not the place to learn how to trade.
I totally agree. I will add that no market is good for learning how to trade.
An individual who wants to trade a market should know how to trade first and then learn to trade a particular market.
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Gold is a commodity.
All commodities closely follow the laws of supply and demand.
When prices rise, supply enters the market.
Historically, or normally, supply was physical, but we no longer live in normal times or we have a new type of normal. There are more ways to get involved in PM than one can list; most of which are paper gold that does nothing more than mimic the price of gold. More people have access to PM than ever before and that leads to bigger and deeper bull and bear cycles. Since we have seen the last sucker who bought, we are now looking for the last sucker who sold as we work through this incredibly oversupplied market. We are a long time away from the bottom. At this point we can expect gold to drop to lows not seen in at least a decade. A guess would be somewhere near $500 an ounce.
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Principle #2: Expect Volatility and Profit from It
Investing in stocks means dealing with volatility. Instead of running for the exits during times of market stress, the smart investor greets downturns as chances to find great investments.
Yup, smart investors held onto Woolworth's, Pan Am, Enron, Eastern Airlines, Commerce One, and Merry-Go-Round. Each was a great investment given the information available at the time.
You might want to change this from investor to trader and instead of finding great investments, they find great money making opportunities. Your definition sounds little bit like bottom fishing, or trying to catch the falling knife. Catching the knife leaves you with multiple lacerations.
Also smacks of the convention: The market always comes back. This is true as long as there is a central bank that can inflate the value of assets.
Principle #3: Know What Kind of Investor You Are
You only have two real choices: The first choice is to make a serious commitment in time and energy to become a good investor who equates the quality and amount of hands-on research with the expected return. If this isn't your cup of tea, then be content to get a passive ( possibly lower) return but with much less time and work.
Be the Ball, Danny.
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Your market reversal will occur in a few years. Sure, there will be a hiccup here and there, but we will see S&P 2500 - 3000 before we see a major downturn. 100 or 200 points is not a major downturn, but it is enough to get technicians, chartists, late comers, etc. confused and betting in the wrong direction. Shorts in a bull market tend to fuel the move to the upside.
We have been through a period of unprecedented actions performed by central banks and it will lead to unprecedented market reactions. In other words, to gauge how high we can go, you'd have to go back to a period in time where a single central bank pumped 4+ trillion dollars into the system to compare to today's environment.
If you are short equities, you'll have to squeeze your butt cheeks for a while before the market matches the results expected in the physical world.
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Trad And WinChirp, chirp says the pigeon..
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The point I'm making is that studying profitable traders isnt particularly useful either. Jack Schwager presumably still makes his living writing books and speaking at conferences and events, his study of successful traders didnt transform him into a big swinging dick.
Jack interviewed some of the luckiest traders over the decades, many of whom subsequently went bust. Trading is awesome when you wind up on the right side of the trade no matter how aggressively you trade.
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Holiday (Thanksgiving Day) here in the U.S Thursday which means low volume so stops either direction can be taken out easily.Yes, the incubus at work.
Generally, though, there are not enough committed buyers entering the market. A committed buyer is not someone who sells at the slightest move down or sells because of a lack of movement. A non-committed buyer is neither dumb nor astute; he is simply not committed to the upside.
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In my experience, the only “can’t loose” PM ‘trade’ is to be a price insensitive accumulator of the physicals across time… to the point where you then start only exchanging one physical element for another… and only using currencies/debt in transactions at all for any ‘hedging’ [snic] via derivatives you might be doing.Each and every other PM ‘trade’ can and most likely will at some point along the way be considered as a “can loose” (or "loss" or however you might spel it.) or at minimum, a suboptimal allocation of capital...
: citations removed to delay being banned
Banned? By whom?
It feels like the site was abandoned.
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I think the 95% failure rate origin comes from 100% of the traders who lose money trying to find comfort in why they lost money; it is too hard.
I agree that It makes no sense to study the accounts of losing traders to determine what the odds of becoming a losing trader are.
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Hello,I ran across EminiTutor.com and have been considering taking the course offered. I wanted to see if anyone here has taken this course? It's pricey but if its as good as it seems, then its definitely worth it.
Was hoping I can find some guys on here that can give me first hand feedback on it? It seems legit and has been around for several years. Watching Horst trade is pretty amazing how he does it.
Any help would be greatly appreciated!
Thanks
The course is one of the very best trading courses that money could buy. But, before you take the course, I would like to send you pics of a couple of bridges I have available at discounted prices. Buy one, then, when you are making money from the bridge toll, you can buy a shortcut course on trading the emini.
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Sorry did not want to include the stock symbol here, so we can have pure technical based responses. It would be nice to put some thoughts and then we will see where the stock moves and why it moved there and how was our analysis spot on or incorrect.Please see attached ..
The stock price is in a down trend. It's always a good bet to bet on continuance and not try to be a hero and call a turn.
The indicators you have chosen to display are indicating a divergence which may lead you to think that the stock's price is going to go up and not down.
Price has made a new low and a higher periodic high and not a lower high. I would want to see a lower high and a lower low to be confident about a short. I would also want to see a higher low get put in, which was not, before I was confident about trying a long. If it broke out above the recent high, then a higher low would have been but in.
If I had to trade this, I would take a long with a buystop entry above the high made around 65 or I would take a short with a sell stop entry if it made a new low. I might try a short from a higher price with a sellstop if I could find a window of opportunity in a lower timeframe. I would get short on a lower timeframe since being short is consistent with the major trend down. I would not want to get long on a lower timeframe than the timeframe being displayed on the chart.
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1180 support is a mirage. Those who get long, anticipating that 1180 will hold, will help grease the slide below 1180.
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... Of those, seven see higher prices.... Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.
Patuca you are not alone. Take comfort in the fact that you are in the minority. The majority is usually wrong.
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When even Barclays is bearish then i am just a minor trader..Barclays Lowers Gold Price Forecast
Wednesday September 17
Barclays on Wednesday lowered its price forecast for gold, citing “an increasingly bearish macro backdrop developing for gold,”.
“Rising rates and a significantly stronger dollar present headwinds, which are set to overwhelm any seasonal strength in physical demand this year,” the bank said.
Barclays lowered their fourth-quarter average gold price forecast to $1,220 an ounce. They now expect prices to average $1,270 an ounce in 2014. Their 2015 forecast calls for an average gold price of $1,180.
Barclays is always late to the party.
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thnks a lot mightymouse....i totally understand that we are in a multi year bull run, probably stronger than any other in history and that call writers consistently lose money in this environment, eating up into their account balance bit by bit
what am doing is selling into strength.and if it was a bull market, i would sell puts(and sure am in healthy profits since the start of bull run). its just the way i do it.
what am trying to know is whether my profitability will be affected by gap up events, and historical examples in this regard would be highly welcome.
Selling into strength is a good strategy but it is not a good strategy when strength is followed by more strength. Spy rarely gaps, but it does trend.
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Spy is in a monstrously, major bull market. It probably has a few more years of upside to it. A short put is the better bet, even if you are put the etf, if you want to be a premium writer; otherwise, a strategically purchased call will make you more money in a bull market. You need to have really good reasons for going against such a strong move if you choose to write calls.
The call premiums are high to lure traders into doing exactly what you are thinking and deter exactly what I am saying.
Best of luck
Where Does the Lost Money Go?
in Beginners Forum
Posted
I, respectfully, disagree. Too many traders overtrade and some of them are very good traders too. Overtrading leads to excessive fees. If you are trading for a tick or 2, the transaction costs are too high as a percentage of the trading profit. A trader needs to be at an unsustainably high win rate to make money. Eventually, the costs suck his account dry.