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enochbenjamin
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Posts posted by enochbenjamin
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Another thing I have learned over the years ( the hard way of course ) is to do very little trading this time of year, May thru July.Historically, my worst months Have been May - July. I don't know why.
Sell in May and go AWAY has been a trading mantra for years! However this May nobody was selling!
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Please explain how you are not paying the spread both on the entry and the exit?if i want to get short at say 129.50, I set a limit for 129.50 and get filled at 129.50. if i set a take profit stop at 129.40 and get filled at 129.40. I do not see any transaction cost when I tally up at the end of the day.
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others are 75%, 50% and 33%.
These are not fibonacci ratios.It's going to be difficult to think outside the box for those who don't even know the basics.It's difficult to understand why those who don't know just 4 ratios insist on writing articles....
MightyMouse-"When you get past first base, you'll realize how silly this phase was. Look forward to the future.
(i took the liberty of adapting your comment to something more constructive:) )
Btw...it's impossible to look forward to the past;)
I am not here to argue the merit of fibonacci retracements - I am a scientist by education so I very much understand the concept. It is also my science background that tells me nomenclature is very important if we are to build off of previous discoveries and thus actually learn something. This is where I have a problem with the retracements - they are based on the Golden Mean of Euclid and Aristotle, the divine proportion of Leonardo daVinci. The ratio of 1.618034 from which the erroneously named fibonacci retracements are based upon, was around and used in math centuries before Fibonacci discovered his little pattern of numbers. Also the actual ratio of 1.618034 was fixed for convenience the actual ratio varies slightly based upon which numbers are used to calculate the ratio.
Any way, if anybody really wants to know more about the subject there are literally dozens of books on the subject. And while fascinating - fibonacci theory does not always hold true in nature - just like in trading.
If it works for you and you - why worry what the naysayers think.
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Why Successful Traders Use Fibonacci Retracement(s):B. 50% is not a Fib level.
neither are 38 or 68.
My son is in 5th grade and happened to be looking over my shoulder when i was reading this post. He told me we just went over Fibonacci patterns in school and quickly pointed out that the first 12 fib numbers are
1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233...
I had to double check as its been some years since I learned about these numbers, but it appears my young lad is correct.
this leads me to believe that fib retracements are completely made up... if I am missing something, please educate me as I am smart enough to know that I am dumb.
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Forex - If you had your choice of trading a regulated market where you could enter within one tick of where you wanted (on avg.) and be making money from the very first tick towards profit and you could move your stop and target(s) at will anywhere anytime OR start out deep in the hole (best I ever got in Forex was -8 pips to BE) and when you tried to move a stop or target you usually got an error message plus your broker could legally run a bucket shop on your trades if he chose to do so, which market would you choose?
You obviously have not traded forex in quite some time. The execution is much better and with current spreads I am never down more than 2 pips on a newly initiated trade - if I time my entry correctly that is it. The spread is the equivalent of a futures commission, I will admit it is higher, but if you when your trade and compensate for the spread then the transaction does not cost you a dime.
Also, having started trading on futures, I can assure you that most trades will enter some drawdown as well and depending on what your trading 1 tick can be more expensive than 1 or 2 forex pips.
As I stated previously, I am not one for trying to convince others to trade one vehicle over another, but I do want to point out that some of the opinions are very biased and slightly misleading.
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This article sounds like a PR piece planted on behalf of the CME. While it may contain some good info - telling a trader which vehicle is best to trade is goofy. This article is geared towards novice traders. You yourself state that you went through a progression and settled upon the vehicle that best suited you. There are obviously people making money in stocks, forex, as well as Spooz. If memory serves me well Warren Buffet detests futures, but he seems to do ok with his stocks. I recently re-read Market Wizards and The New Market Wizards and it is clear that there are giants trading not only every feasible time frame but every vehicle known to man as well.
Trade what you feel comfortable with.
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I could not find DOOZIE in my dictionary, Sir. Can you help improve my English vocabulary?Thanks
Since the thread has come back to life I will explain what doozie means - it means its a motherfucker!
:rofl:
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A few things...
1) If you are trading daily pivot points they are intended to be used for that days trading only. Now some people keep older pivot points for reference but if you wanted to position trade I would suggest using weekly or monthly pivots.
Which leads right into
2) You should know before entering the trade what type of trader you are. If you went into the trade with the intention of it being a day trade - then get out at the end of the day. If you went into it knowing you want to let it run, fine, but know before you enter and don't change your mind mid way thru the trade.
If you keep switching during live trades it indicates you either didn't have a plan or you are not following your plan. You might get away with this in the short term but in the long run you will get smashed! Trust me. I used to always get in a good day trade and immediately start thinking this is the trade of the century!!! It's gonna run forever! Only to wake up the next morning to see all that green looking quite red.
Pick your poison and live with it.
Wishing You Good Trading!
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to limit losses - DON"T TRADE. if you insist on trading then you must learn to embrace your losses as lessons and part of the game. you will not last if you cannot accept that losing is going to occur (unless you are a US bank).
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BEAN OIL:Funny I should notice this thread as Ive been trying to get short bean oil over the last few days as a position trade.
You get some crazy opening spikes, and the overnight action is pretty crazy too (much to my detriment) - stop running extravaganza! I can see why it would be ideal for day traders - especially those who like the russell 2k Bean Oil is like ER on crystal meth! and at $6 a tick it may not be so damaging to the pocket book.
I have to chuckle.... bean oil moves like lightning and those $6 ticks can add up real fast! I blew out an account trading bean oil - not for the faint of heart. If you've got brass balls and deep pockets, have fun!
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Hi all I'm demo trading a soybean strategy at the moment (my experience so far is in trading forex). I am using an Alpari UK demo account for this purpose. I sold ZS.Q1 at 1379 with SL at 1382.25 at 11:05 CET, 21/7/11. My 1382.25 SL triggered at 11:10, 21/7/11 despite price only reaching a high of 1379.5.My question for the more experienced soybean traders is is this sort of fill very common? Is it massively worse/better with different dealers? As you can imagine I was a bit alarmed to lose 11 ticks more than I thought I should have. Any comments would be very much appreciated, thanks.
You need a futures broker to trade grains. That slippage is unacceptable and you will be broke very fast trading grains with that (almost 3 points) kind of slippage. Stop now before it's too late. The one thing you have to keep in mind with grains is that a news event will cause some significant gaps - so something like a flood being reported in the midwest can cause significant gaps.
Secondly, if this is your first foray into commodities after trading forex you sure picked a doozie! Corn is a little more liquid and moves a little slower - I would start there until you get a feel for grains as they are a very different beast from fx.
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I have tried it a few times on 1 minute and 3 minute - but that spread kills you on scalps - especially since the price action is so fast...
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the new year is often the time for renewed vows -- i am convinced that i could be a super trader if i could just force myself to cut the computer off after 10 am.
so... my new years vow is to stop trading everyday by 11 am - no new trades entered after 10 am.
and with that being said - does anyone want to revive the race?
i will be funding a new small account with a new super cheap broker: generic trade... so if anybody want to give this thing a go again, i'm game!
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look into market structure. market structure highs on 30 min or higher are pretty reliable indicators that the trend is reversing.
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did the experiment fail?
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what is you criteria for entering?
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Don't sweat it - in hindsight it looks like we all should have made mega bucks yesterday. Forget about it and concentrate on the next trade.
And if I could take my own advice I would be a wizzard!
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hang in there - you got the balls to keep posting so you got the will to make it happen.
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while we are at observations here is one i have noticed in ES and not so much in other futures.
I use sierra charts and can show depth of dom on the chart. This nifty feature gives the total percentage bid vs total percentage ask. I have noticed that when the price is slanted more than 60% in one direction - price is going to go in the opposite direction.
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well I've got 2 from my first 3 months of trading...
My first ever "trade". I had bought stocks and mutual funds before but never with the intention to trade them, more of a buy and hold philosophy. Well a trader introduced me to trading and I was hooked! Opened up a futures account and the first day I was allowed to trade, I bought 1 CL (crude oil) and in less than a minute I was up $3600. I couldn't beleive how easy trading was (oh boy did i have a lot to learn) and quickly cashed in on my good luck. I just knew I was going to be rich in a matter of weeks. Here is what I did not know:
1. that Nigerian rebels had taken over a Shell refinery and I was lucky enough to place my trade seconds before the news came out - I had NO IDEA news even affected trading.
2. I did not know what a stop-loss was. I could have just as easily lost $3600 in a few seconds.
3. I did not know how to open a chart on my platform. I had just figured out how to pace trades and was so anxious to do so that i just jumped in naked - no chart, no news, no ideas about anything.
Needless to say I blew that account out in the next 2 weeks.
Fast forward 3 months and I am educated now. Had coffee with a hedge fund manager who schooled me on "trend-trading" and I'm in the know. I even opened a "BIG-BOY" account with Interactive Brokers, cuz that's where the real traders trade (or so i thought). I am in Hilton Head with the family, who are all at the pool/beach while I am in the room studying my charts. Since I am a big boy I trade 6 lots at a time. Yup, just 3 months into the game and I am trading 6 of everything I touch - Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, S&P Futures, Gold, Silver, Dow Futures, you name it. Anyway - today wheat was the flavor of the day. My wife comes in the room glances at my chart and proclaims - "even I can tell thats going up! why aren't you buying it???" That was the trading signal I had been waiting for. Buy 6 lots of wheat!!! about 5 minutes later wheat was limit up! I was thrilled and decided to go to the pool and buy my wife a few cocktails! Ok, what I didn't know:
1) I knew about limit moves, but I didn't know that the market remained open for trading in the opposite direction. I was sure that once the limit move occurred everybody just waited to trade the next day. When I left to party I was up about $12,000 - when I got back the market had declined a wee bit and I had less than $3,000. My wife rationalized that 3k would cover the cost of the trip so I cashed out...only to see the market really close limit up on what was the start of the wheat run a couple of years back. I recall doing the math and had I been able to hold those 6 contracts for the next 2 months I would have netted close to 300k.
I've learned a lot since those days but I still feel like a newbie!
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I subscribe to the Paul Tudor Jones two drink minimum rule. Well for SIM trading, not deutsche mark currency futures at 4:00 AM. Sorry, I just watched his documentary last night.I've seen the documentary and its pretty clear that he's chugging cans of Bud while trading at 4AM! But then again thats Paul Tudor Jones and there is only one Paul Tudor Jones.
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I am sad to say I have to drop out of the race. My trading from January 19 through mid May was very poor and I need to get back to basics as trading is my only source of income. The Race brought out the gambler in me which I thought had been put to rest but it was a good learning experience on sticking to my plan.I wish you all the best of luck.
Chris
I came to the exact same conclusion about a month ago - just did not have the dignity to announce it as you did.
Best to all.
-e
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I took it on the chin yesterday, but back positive for the week after a good morning today.ditto! Except not positive on he week :-( Did good this am by switching to QM to withstand the surge in volitility in oil.
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very disappointing day yesterday - shorted oil near the top and got out with a 1 tick gain before the MASSIVE selloff! then started revenge trading - you see the results....
When to Stop Trading and Call It a Day ?
in Forex
Posted
I had a very similar dilemma today. I was down big on a trade I held overnight and was scalping to minimize the damage. Late in the morning I accidentally closed out the trade for a huge loss. Normally I shut it down at 11am CST. It was 11:04... I saw my setup - I took it.
I have grappled with your question multiple times over the years and have decided (i sometimes change my mind) that I should take my setup whenever I see it. So if the terminal is open and a setup appears - I am taking it. The only exception is 1 hour prior to NY close.
Just my 2¢