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Patuca

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by Patuca

  2. Posted

    Who cares if his methods do not fit your understanding of JR methods - its his log for his benefit - not yours. And since you have never undertaken JRs private tuition who are you to say this isn't how JR trades today.

     

    Regarding his first post holding any trades overnight - it is you who should study carefully.

    Then why post it here..to show off his ability to trade? Posting once in a while..."I placed a trade and made 10 ticks" with no description why or how isn't helping anyone on the forum..now is it?

     

    There was no real substance to his posts. Of course we all post things from time to time with no substance but continual worthless posts does no one any good.

     

    I did maybe sort of jeer..so did capt bob but not even that would incite him to post some other than basically: took a trade...made 10 ticks.

     

    Instead he gets offended...and takes off like speedy gonzales in a huff...never to return.

     

    He could have just written his log on a yellow legal pad at home and served the same purpose. If he don't want public probing of his methods then don't show up on a public forum.

     

    I did apologize for my sort of jeering but come on he needs to face reality...some things did not square up and he was busted..

     

    "If you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen"....may apply here..

     

    Probally nobody takes more jeering than Patuca on this forum and i am still around. I even jeer at myself..

     

    Good luck handle...and again i apologize for well, sort of jeering...i'm am sure you will peek back in to see what is being said since your grandiose departure...:rofl: :rofl:

     

     

    Handle you may jeer at me all you like as i do a series of taylor trades on the beyond taylor thread.. it will probally be a fiasco so you can find something to jeer about ...I am sure...

  4. Posted

    Thank you all for your comments. I am moving this Trader Log to another forum. Those of you truly interested in following my log, please send me a message.

     

    Thank you again.

     

    Tony

    handle you are owed an apology by me Patuca. I can't speak for capt Bob. I apologize for my behaviour... I don't really understand what is the reason for your posts. I know you said for yourself..discipline or something of that nature but may i ask is there any benefit to the readers of your posts?

     

    I admit i was sort of well jeering..but hey i do that all time...nothing personal with you...i as a scalper certainly do not laugh at 10 ticks profit. I traded 10 lots today for less ticks than that...

     

    I actually thought you were doing quite good..win rate and all...so before you leave i apologize...that is all can do....good luck with J Ross tactics.. I have respect for mr ross...and i wish you the best.

     

    See, i am my biggest problem..you and your big mouth Patuca...such an idiot..

     

     

     

    Patuca

     

    PS i also talk to myself...

  5. Posted

    you didn't share the feelings with the new status.....I was just curios how you feel at these levels :)

    Thanks..i finally got out of the complete idiot level! I'm feeling better already... I didn't know i was at the guru level. I have been working outside in the sun and feeling faint. My powers of observation must have failed me...

  7. Posted

    Those are wise words coming from a complete.....I beg your pardon... a GURU.

    In the Indian world a Guru is a teacher :cool:

    In the US a Guru is a person with followers.... Charles Mason. :helloooo:

    In Beleze, where our new Guru hangs out,it refers to a fisherman who uses a NET for catching fish. Thats in the tidal pool. :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

    regards

    bobc

    one minnow once in a great while...then another..then another great while...then another minnow...ad naseum...

     

    I cannot be a guru...i have no followers...i sell no systems for ES...i am not a good teacher..at least no one on this forum seems to think i am.. In addition, i am presently stuck at the COMPLETE IDIOT level per zdo and TW and there is no telling when i will break free from this level...therefore, i cannot be a guru...

  12. Posted

    See did you hear that capt bob the man has no slippage....we best make haste and advance to module two of the free course....for a considerable consideration you may even be able to get a diploma w/o finishing the course..

     

    is this happy training/trading or happy hour? Zdo are you smoking something? John w zip drive left alarmed at all the noise..

  13. Posted

    I burst into laughter when I read this.

    OK , I'll compromise , fish and wine

    bobc

     

    PS "both will affect your training" :confused::confused:

    I hope you haven't been at the cherry bottle

    capt bob did i say train? Yes, i did.. I mean't trade..but since i said train lets discuss train...j. ross friend..or disciple...handle is trying to train us via his blog even though he would never say that..please be friendly..the course is free you know....eat 3 times as much fish as wine if you must...beer would be better for you..vit B you know....

  14. Posted

    Hi Patuca

    Its supper time

    A nice fillet steak and some dry white wine will help

    In the mean time

    I'll be back

    The Terminator

    you may be stopping your arteries with steak and deadening your brain with wine...both will affect your training..Fish and orange juice on the other hand......

  15. Posted

    If you are determined to intraday trade the ES, you will find over time that most (if not all) of your thoughts towards trading will melt away as they are replaced by thoughts that are particular towards your new found interest

     

    Words like 'noise' will cease to exist ... win/loss ratio will fade away as you focus on entry continuance or scratch.

    You lose interest in R/R but you might be heavily attracted to moving averages of High/Low and whether they are traveling in near straight lines from time to time and whether your bar entry lies inside/outside the last bar mov av. of High/Low.

    RTH Open will be a fat line across your chart together with Yesterday's Close ...2,3 day high/low plus other lines dragged forward from significant recent and not so recent turning points.

     

    Trend and momentum merge (who cares what to call the next few minutes) ..either you have bought in or sold in to the developing price wave... you are either long or short on an OCO trade and your management requires you to drag the stops around the DOM, or hit the Flatten button when you want out.

    Trailing Stops are for other People.

     

    This style of trading is not everyone's cup of tea quite frankly .... it is best treated as a game IMO and as such we train for it ... and train hard.

     

    We all need a realistic understanding of our appetite to stress and our ability to react immediately.

    The rewards are good, because you are doing the same thing several times each day, (although your no. of lots keeps increasing) ... and over time you will come to understand that the price is repeating patterns but not always in the same order.

     

    That is why People hold the believe that the market is random.

     

    Remember that 'No. of Lots"' does the heavy lifting ... you just need to provide stability.

     

    Lastly, it is a simple game and you must keep it that way ... there is no time for complexity

    trend on a daily TF is noise on a weekly or monthly TF. it is all noise...yes ALL noise...moves..and noise...some with drum rolls...trading is noisy...now what noise is easier to predict?.....

     

    Even the pit is noisy....posters are noisy.. People are noisy and nosey....i have to go fishing to get away from the noise...

     

    PS NOISE =$$$$

     

    Thanks Patuca :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

     

    PPSS Waves are BS. Its more like currents...

  16. Posted

    Hi Handle

    Double dog nonsense. (patent Patuca)

    Your RED / GREEN arrows show where you entered.

    You must have the highest slippage in the world

    Remember......novice traders come looking for help on TL.

    And they are eager to accept anything.

    And they will accept your posts as gospel

    I think your posts are morally wrong.

    But everybody else seems to accept your posts as genuine

    So I guess I am wrong..... me and Galileo.

    No regards

    bobc

    Uh we have problem houston....entry into the atmosphere is not where originally projected at....what shall we do...over..commander cap Bob.

  18. Posted · Edited by Patuca

    Hi Patuca,

     

    I disagree with this, although I have respect for the argument you make.

     

    Certainly, if you can predict short term price movements with any accuracy then, to put it simply, you'll have a much smoother ride than any longer term trader. If this weren't the case, then all those HFT firms wouldn't bother.

     

    But is this possible? If not, then the very first premise of your argument is flawed . . .

     

    The more variables that enter into the picture (especially those with high granularity as opposed to major fundamental events like wars), then the more "smoothed" their effect will be. If you look at a weekly chart and there's an uptrend, then this uptrend is the result of opinion in spite of whatever short term fluctuations the influences you list may generate.

     

    The shorter the timeframe, the lower the signal to noise ratio.

     

    For me, this has a clear consequence: you can trade against short term noise in favour of the long term trend.

     

    Example: long term uptrend but news (it's just noise) causes a three day sell-off = buy.

     

    Example: long term downtrend but war (it's just noise) causes a brief rally = short.

     

    Trade the trend, and fade the noise for great entries!

     

    As soon as you move to intraday the difficulty is that the trend (?) is just the noise from the higher timeframes. I imagine there is some sophisticated way to assemble all this (some incredibly complex fractal hedging in multiple timeframes?), but I have stopped looking for it - end of day works well enough.

     

    The point should also be made (so I'll make it!) that I may just be cynical because shorter term trading isn't something I myself have had any success with.

     

    Finally, a R:R of 1:1 is fine if you have a high win rate.

     

    BlueHorseshoe

    Like i said it isn't for everyone. A RR 1:1 is bare min. Many times i get RR Like 8:1, 9:1 and more. It all comes down to precise picking where actual risk is so low that it makes the RR ratio very high. Many times, probally aprox 30%, of my trades end up having a 0 risk. Many more end up have a .25 pt or .50 pt actual risk.

     

    For instance, say i make 4 points on an ES TRADE. Say after entry the market only actually goes against me by .25 pts before giving me the 4 pts. What is my actual RR ratio? See what i mean?

     

    However, initial risk should be at least with a RR 1:1 and better if 2:1 because depending on skills in picking trades math can still take a trader to the cleaners...and will on bad initial RR.

     

    High actual RR in short term trading is indicative of good precise picking of trades. In the end what counts mathematically in terms of risks and an account growing is ones actual risk as opposed to ones initial risk. Actual RR ratio trumps initial RR IMO. Math is relentless and in the end determines an account growing or being whittled away.

     

    Long term trading generally has a 40% probability of success. Short term can be 60% or 70% and at times more. I actually have a very high win rate.

     

    I understand what you are saying on noise. My argument is that noise can be anticipated and is actually easier to predict than longer term price action...because of the fact that it is noise and shows up a such in a chart...that is why reversion systems work on the ES for short term trading...it tends to revert quiet often...

     

    Plus on short term trading with size you can make your money and be done very quickly for the day. Many times in the first hour of trading. Not so with end of day trading.

     

    My thinking on it is thus: the longer I am in the markets the more risks i assume in terms of probabilities of the market going against me as time slithers by (not dollar risk as that is fixed if i don't move my SL). I am ONLY at risk when i am in the market.

     

    Anyway there are generally several ways to skin a cat.......so to speak.....trading also needs to fit ones personality...glad EOD works good for you.. Not sure i could handle it. My main point is that not trying for big move does not exclude one making good money from the markets. Paul Rotter comes to mind who made 65 million or more per year for 10 years scalping 2 to 5 ticks. But again that kind of trading isn't for everyone. I personally like to scalp 1 to 4 points and occasionally will let it run more if PA doesn't indicate large pullbacks. The larger scalps i call swing scalps (when more than one leg..i.e. i hold thru at east one PB)

  19. Posted

    Consider this: the longer time frame the more variables enter into the picture.. War...news...traders sentiment...fed reserve....hft jolts...algo's..etc.

     

    A cursory look to the left will have a high probability of telling you where prices will go in the next five minutes...therefore, why do so many want to make big gains by attempting to play for larger moves? The larger moves, by definition, are harder to "anticipate" (since the word "predict" sends many traders into mental convulsions) thus causing the probability of success to be less. I know one is looking for a bigger RR thinkng higher RR is the key to mega $$$ rolling in to ones account. However, once one gets REALLY GOOD at anticipating 5 minute moves it is entirely possible to have an actual RR of 8:1 or 10:1 and on top of that a high win rate.

     

    Consider this: a trader only has to average a consistent 2 points per day in the ES and simply up the size to 5 lots. In a year he will have made 120,000.00 - 24,000.00 aproxRT commisions assuming 4 trades per day to get the 2 points. In actuality, many days 1 trade will get the 2 points but just saying if it takes up to 4 trades to net 400.00 per day trading 5 lots. Point to be made is several fold.

     

    First, It is easier to anticipate a 1 or 2 point move in the ES over the next 5 to 15 minutes than a 10 to 15 point daily move.

     

    Second, you can mathematically have a very good positive traders equation and a very good RR once you get sharp at predicting 2 point moves on 5 minute chart.

     

    Third, it is achievable to have a very high win rate doing this.

     

    Fourth, many days there will be 4 or 5 or more points gained which will more than make up for losing days.

     

    Now, throw in the NQ together with ES and trading 5 lots and capturing 5 point moves (net) day...add this to the points net on the ES......well you get the picture....

     

     

    It is easier to make many base hits than home runs in the markets...

     

    Of course, I am at the complete idiot level so you might want to take what i say with a grain of salt. It certainly isn't for everyone but with those so inclined it just might work for them if they can get good at it. Many times the points can be made within 30 minutes of the open....

     

    Just another dipstick viewpoint.....

  20. Posted

    Right about now (anytime rest of the day) is a good time to look at getting long IMO around 1385 to 1387 area for an ATM TRADE. Price stands a higher probabilities of trading up tomm. Then exit at the top of the minirange...full exits when trading mini ranges generally is the best strategy.

     

    This for information only. Do not do what my opinion ! You could lose your money!

     

    Patuca

  21. Posted

    Hi Patuca

    Gold now at 1391...... bullish :confused::confused::confused:

    I have to go feed the horses , put the ox on the spit, blah, blah blah

    I'l be back

    The terminator.

    it is bullish in the intermediate bullish channel trend and perhaps even longer term trend. It has been bearish all morning almost for ATM but it is soon with next hour or so be bullish for ATM. Remember in ATM BUY BOTTOMS. Bottoms of the mini sideways range. Generally, when i say bullish i am speaking of the intermediate to longterm trend.

     

    In ATM it goes back and forth bullish / bearish until it breaks out ofthe sideways mini range. Maybe this will clear up things?.

     

    In other words, ofds favor a couple of sideways bars were you buy the low and sell the high and repeat until a breakout of the range top or bottom occurs.

  22. Posted

    You are correct Patuca,

    They should really make you a Wizzard.....even if its just temporary ;)

    Stopped out for 9 point gain...chicken feed :crap:

    regards

    bobc

    ok i didn't read your post well. I now see it was yesterday you went long at 1401. That would make sense. But in addition i would have shorted high today for an entry into ATM. I did not undrstand why you went long today. Misunderstanding. Carry on....

     

    [ame=http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OOhvX9JQ_WI]Kansas Carry on my Wayward son Lyrics. - YouTube[/ame]

  23. Posted

    Patuca,

     

    Wake up. There was another!

     

    mr handle

    oh ...yawn....you just won't let me sleep..will you?

     

    One thing mr handle you are 8/1. Maybe 9/1 soon so if it is nonsense it has a high win rate...all you have to do is up size and some decent money can be made...

     

     

    Question for all traders: is it easier to predict probable price 5 miniues from now or one day from now? Or is it equallly as difficult?

     

    Patuca

  24. Posted

    LONG at 1401 from yesterday

    Stop now at 1410

    Target 1420

     

    Gold is BELOW the 45 degree Gann angle....thats bearesh

    The numbers to watch

    .... break below 1410 goes to 1395

    .....and then to 1370 SUPPORT The price bounced off 1372 yesterday. Lots of demand at this level .So thats the BIG number for a home run.

    .....break above 1421 goes to 1434 RESISTANCE

    .....break above 1434 is a home run (and SunTrader is dead)

     

    regards

    bobc .

    why? Why? Why? Did you do that capt bob? Why long? I said in in my very recent post # 1096 "heads up" for ATM zone. Nothing to do but sell the top and buy the bottom until we get another breakout either up or down. We should get at least 2-3 sideways bars now 70% chance(). If a trader buy tops in ATM zone and sell bottoms he will get stopped out 70% to 80% of the time. Please meditate deeply about the matter..A trader should deeply consider selling strenght and buying weakness..

     

    Ps Gold s bullish.

    Patuca

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