Quote:
Originally Posted by JUANEBAT »  I am a newbie with only a couple of years trading options. But my bias is that expired options historical data have a very little potential to be of any value to predict the behavior of current active options.
It may require a lot of effort for no valuable or meaningful information
AM I wrong ?
Even in active options I see often ilogical disparity in the price behavior just one stirke price
ahead ...
Example while the price of the same expiration date of Sina when up 0.10 cents , the price when down for the one line above and one like below...
How come ?
I will try to post the picture of part of the option chain .
Again , remember I do not know much  |
I would say you are correct - that the past behavior of expired options will not affect the current options - however, that was not what was asked, and it may not be the reason why they want past information.
Maybe they are trying to reconcile their accounts, trying to track the behavior of an option to see how it moves from the exchanges mark to market system.
and yes you will often see strange things between options strikes and series. You need to then understand and then investigate why...
does the system you look at only show the last traded price, does it show the mid point between the bid offer spread of the market makers, does it give a theoretical value derived from an average volatility measure, are you looking at your theoretical prices.
Derivatives such as options will always add many extra dimensions as to their pricing, and there is a lot more to understanding them.
Regards Sina - without more info i could not comment, but maybe volatility was coming off and everyone was a seller and the last sales were reported strangely, or a spread went through....who knows.
07-09-2011, 07:12 PM
Linear Mode
