Higher Lows Lower Highs

[Snow Dog 10]

2 buys on EJ after missing out on some clean moves this morning (not in front of computer).

 

Buy 122.64 for +25 and 123.05 for +50. Higher lows, 3 bar reversals back into trend, little/no upper wicks on set up candles.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 7 Mar

EUR - View was: The moves up over the previous 2 days was a rally in downtrend and the D closed a lower high 3 bar reversal. It does appear that we have divergence on D and 4hr. Price action would need to confirm this so to buy we'd be looking for a 1hr higher low to change flow upwards. There is a potential resistance level at last weeks low. We would expect the solid D negative close candle to follow through lower. Bias is down until flow confirms otherwise.

We did have a 1hr higher low following divergence. The major move up was after the interest rates decisions/news conference.

 

GU - View was: Very similar picture to EUR with the D close and divergences. Again though bias down until flow confirms otherwise.

We did have a double bottom and move up after news.

 

EJ - View was: Not much clearer than yesterday for me. No bias.

Things cleared up quickly breaking the range higher and then gave clear higher lows on 15 min chart.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 8 Mar

 

Non-farm payroll today so as always care is recommended.

 

EUR - D double bottom, 3 bar reversal engulfing close after the divergence, good candles like this should follow through higher. Interestingly we stopped right on the previously identified resistance level 1.3120. 4hr broke above 1.3070 so the 4hr lower high lower low cycle is broken. 1hr now on higher high higher low. As the D chart has completed a double bottom over 6 days we have a valid D reversal pattern. Bias up.

 

GU - D closed a doji and divergence could still play out. 4hr still on lower high lower low flow. 1hr latest is lower high lower low. We are below the RSI 50 level on the 3 main time frames. The D doji by itself is not a high probability reversal signal but a positive D close following would be. For now bias still down.

 

EJ - Bias up.

[Snow Dog 10]

Can't help wondering if these posts are helping. Specifically an analysis of view of likely days movement, then recap on whether that view played out. Then the concept of trading with the flow going counter trend only at proven SR levels, W pivots, divergence, 1hr flow proving for hours that it does not want to continue in trend.

 

Please post a comment, a like or a thanks if the thread and its focus is of some value to you.

 

Cheers.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 8 Mar

Non-farm payroll today so as always care is recommended.

 

EUR - View was: D double bottom, 3 bar reversal engulfing close after the divergence, good candles like this should follow through higher. Interestingly we stopped right on the previously identified resistance level. 4hr broke above 1.3070 so the 4hr lower high lower low cycle is broken. 1hr now on higher high higher low. As the D chart has completed a double bottom over 6 days we have a valid D reversal pattern. Bias up.

Small move up in line with bias until better than expected jobs numbers boosted USD.

 

GU - View was: D closed a doji and divergence could still play out. 4hr still on lower high lower low flow. 1hr latest is lower high lower low. We are below the RSI 50 level on the 3 main time frames. The D doji by itself is not a high probability reversal signal but a positive D close following would be. For now bias still down.

A nice move up when price could not go lower for 3 hours and a 3 bar reversal started move up.

 

EJ - View was: Bias up.

A strong move up in line with bias until the US jobs numbers came out.

Edited March 9, 2013 by Snow Dog

[Snow Dog 10]

4hr charts W pivots

Showing as usual the importance of the W pivots and support/resistance levels. Again 2-4 moves in the week.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 11 Mar

EUR - Last week closed a long legged doji with the support level that goes back to Feb/Mar/Apr '12, Jan '13 being respected. D closed negative after the better than expected NFP numbers. Bias down but can bounce up from the lows of last week.

 

GU - Making new lows after the NFP numbers. D showing divergence. 4hr on lower high lower low flow also showing divergence. Bias down but there can be a reaction higher on the divergence that has been showing for about 2 weeks now.

 

EJ - D closed a shooting star as a reaction to the NFP numbers. Possibly a reaction to the 18/20 Feb highs. If 4hr closes negative its on a lower high and short term bias would then be down. Other than that bias remains up.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 11 Mar

EUR - View was: Bias down but can bounce up from the lows of last week.

The lows held and price moved up in US session.

 

GU - View was: Making new lows after the NFP numbers. D showing divergence. 4hr on lower high lower low flow also showing divergence. Bias down but there can be a reaction higher on the divergence that has been showing for about 2 weeks now.

London session moved down in line with bias.

 

EJ - View was: D closed a shooting star as a reaction to the NFP numbers. Possibly a reaction to the 18/20 Feb highs. If 4hr closes negative its on a lower high and short term bias would then be down. Other than that bias remains up.

We moved up in US session in line with bias.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 12 Mar

EUR - D positive close inside bar, higher low. We'll see the reaction at London open, so far the move up is significantly weaker than 7 March. Bias down to the previous lows.

 

GU - D closed a doji and the divergence is still showing. 4hr flow still lower high lower low. Bias down.

 

EJ - D positive close. 4hr shows the pause at the previous high with sell negative divergence. We'll see the reaction at London open. Bias remains up, we can obviously move lower from the highs

[Snow Dog 10]

EJ - The divergence and the move lower from the highs won out. Mrs V missed out on the picture perfect 15 min lh this morning around London open.

 

This afternoon neg close 1hr, 15 min 3 bar reversal. Out a tad early for +30.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 12 Mar

EUR - View was: D positive close inside bar, higher low. We'll see the reaction at London open, so far the move up is significantly weaker than 7 March. Bias down to the previous lows.

We did move down in line with bias to the previous low and had a bounce from 1.2990.

 

GU - View was: D closed a doji and the divergence is still showing. 4hr flow still lower high lower low. Bias down.

Down bias played out after London open, after which a significant bounce up.

 

EJ - View was: D positive close. 4hr shows the pause at the previous high with sell negative divergence. We'll see the reaction at London open. Bias remains up, we can obviously move lower from the highs.

A strong move down during late Asia/London morning.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 13 Mar

EUR - D closed a doji, 1.3000 as a proven support level is a tough nut to crack. having said that we are not going up either. For now the 4hr is on a higher high higher low. A negative close now would flip that over back to a sell. No bias can go either way.

 

GU - D closed a hammer so we could go up. No conviction in the move we are below our 8lwma and below RSI's signal line (on yesterdays close), divergence still there. 4hr has broken the lower high lower low flow. Still viewing valid system buys as counter trend and main focus should be selling the rallies in this downtrend. Focus will remain down bias until daily proves otherwise with a valid reversal pattern.

 

EJ - 126 held for the 3rd day. D closed negative but we are still above our 8lwma and RSI signal line. 4hr had RSI sell signal earlier allowing sells yesterday. There is support at 124.70, the move below there yesterday was quickly rejected as clearly shown by the lower wicks on 1hr. Short term bias appears down there is the chance to bounce up from support.

[Snow Dog 10]

Above the 200ema on 15 min, price did not want to progress higher for 3 hrs. 15 min lh, 3 bar reversal close, little/no lower wick. Out at +34, 3% ROI on that one.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 13 Mar

EUR - View was: No bias can go either way.

Pushed up to the previous days high/W M3 and fell strongly.

 

GU - View was: Still viewing valid system buys as counter trend and main focus should be selling the rallies in this downtrend. Focus will remain down bias until daily proves otherwise with a valid reversal pattern.

A very choppy day.

 

EJ - View was: Short term bias appears down there is the chance to bounce up from support.

A very choppy day.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 14 Mar

EUR - D closed a 3 bar reversal evening star pattern, still has evidence of divergence. 4hr on lower high lower low flow. Bias down.

 

GU - D closed a shooting star, the struggle to go lower continues. The 4hr higher low might get broken when the current candle closes putting us back on a lower high. Still viewing any rallies as chance to sell back into downtrend.

 

EJ - D closed negative. 4hr had a double top and is now approaching the W Pivot and 123.80 where we bounced up from on Fri. 1hr on lower high lower low and showing positive divergence at the lows. Bias down with the potential to bounce up from support.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 14 Mar

EUR - View was: D closed a 3 bar reversal evening star pattern, still has evidence of divergence. 4hr on lower high lower low flow. Bias down.

There was a move down after London open. With D, 4hr and 1hr showing divergence NY open had a 3 bar reversal and moved up from W S1.

 

GU - View was: D closed a shooting star, the struggle to go lower continues. The 4hr higher low might get broken when the current candle closes putting us back on a lower high. Still viewing any rallies as chance to sell back into downtrend.

The 4hr higher low won out and moved up. A difficult move to trade with no 1hr reasonable set up candle.

 

EJ - View was: D closed negative. 4hr had a double top and is now approaching the W Pivot and 123.80 where we bounced up from on Fri. 1hr on lower high lower low and showing positive divergence at the lows. Bias down with the potential to bounce up from support.

Bounced up from support. 1hr higher low after divergence going into London open.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 15 Mar

EUR - Divergence showing on D, 4hr and 1hr saw a move up and positive D close. The W pivots have been strong containers of price this week. 4hr at the moment trying for a higher low on the current open candle. Bias up but there is the potential to reject an upper trend line and W pivot.

 

GU - Strong D close, 4hr had higher lows after divergence that played out. 1hr on higher high higher low flow also. D upper trend line broken. We stopped at W R1 on an 85/15 trade. Bias up and would like to see yesterdays high break higher as there is always the chance of test of back of trend line or reversal back to down trend.

 

EJ - D closed a small hammer. 4hr on higher low. Bias up.

[Snow Dog 10]

Missed out in morning move up. W M3 held for an hour, a quick 20 hit and run. Not the biggest trade but EUR was struggling at the RN and UJ was going down which could also give EJ problems following through.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 15 Mar

EUR - View was: Divergence showing on D, 4hr and 1hr saw a move up and positive D close. The W pivots have been strong containers of price this week. 4hr at the moment trying for a higher low on the current open candle. Bias up but there is the potential to reject an upper trend line and W pivot.

Moved up in line with bias and had a pullback from R2/W R1.

 

GU - View was: Strong D close, 4hr had higher lows after divergence that played out. 1hr on higher high higher low flow also. D upper trend line broken. We stopped at W R1 on an 85/15 trade. Bias up and would like to see yesterdays high break higher as there is always the chance of test of back of trend line or reversal back to down trend.

Moved up in line with bias to R1 in London session and back down to the days open in US session.

 

EJ - View was: D closed a small hammer. 4hr on higher low. Bias up.

Moved up in line with bias until the highs over the last week were reached and fell strongly.

[Snow Dog 10]

4hr charts W pivots lower highs/higher lows following divergence

 

As usual I am posting the 4hr charts to show how important the W pivots and support and resistance levels are. As is typical there were only 2 or 3 decent moves for the week.

 

I have also added the divergences and when a higher low or lower high follows divergence price action is confirming and they are usually good set ups to trade.

[Snow Dog 10]

Charts for above post with the divergences!!:roll eyes:

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 18 Mar

EUR - We will have to see how the market reacts to Cyprus bailout news. It would not be unusual for the gap to be closed before falling suggesting a move up to 1.3000. For now we stopped at the Dec '12 lows/W M1. There could well be further flight to the $ as a safe haven. No bias as we could close gap or just as easily fall.

 

GU - D shooting star lower high. 4hr looks like it could have a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.5065. 1hr chart, Asian session could not break the lows. 4hr has signaled a sell short term bias down. If the current candle closes positive that will be a higher low to continue positive flow.

 

EJ - Same story with EUR. Close gap move higher or continue lower. We'll just have to see which way the market takes us.

Edited March 18, 2013 by Snow Dog

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 18 Mar

EUR - View was: We will have to see how the market reacts to Cyprus bailout news. It would not be unusual for the gap to be closed before falling suggesting a move up to 1.3000. For now we stopped at the Dec '12 lows/W M1. There could well be further flight to the $ as a safe haven. No bias as we could close gap or just as easily fall.

Gap was filled.

 

GU - View was: D shooting star lower high. 4hr looks like it could have a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.5065. 1hr chart, Asian session could not break the lows. 4hr has signaled a sell short term bias down. If the current candle closes positive that will be a higher low to continue positive flow.

Small range no follow through.

 

EJ - View was: Same story with EUR. Close gap move higher or continue lower. We'll just have to see which way the market takes us.

Gap was filled.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 19 Mar

EUR - Positive D close to close the gap to Fri's lows, still below RSI 50 level. 4hr is still on lower high after the gap closed price went sideways, 50% retrace, still below RSI 50 level. No bias can go either way today.

 

GU - D closed a small range doji. 4hr has now formed a lower high. A base has formed around 1.5070 and on the upside W M3 at 1.5143 and the recent high just above. No bias can go either way.

 

EJ - Positive D close to fill the gap. We are at W M2/last weeks lows/62% retrace. After a D close like yesterday view would normally be bias up but in view of the above we could easily react lower.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 19 Mar

EUR - View was: Positive D close to close the gap to Fri's lows, still below RSI 50 level. 4hr is still on lower high after the gap closed price went sideways, 50% retrace, still below RSI 50 level. No bias can go either way today.

50% retrace held, negative close lower high 3 bar reversal on 4hr set up move down.

 

GU - View was: D closed a small range doji. 4hr has now formed a lower high. A base has formed around 1.5070 and on the upside W M3 at 1.5143 and the recent high just above. No bias can go either way.

It did with some wild swings on 1hr.

 

EJ - View was: Positive D close to fill the gap. We are at W M2/last weeks lows/62% retrace. After a D close like yesterday view would normally be bias up but in view of the above we could easily react lower.

The fib/W pivot/resistance level held, move lower set up by a 4hr shooting star.