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jjthetrader

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Everything posted by jjthetrader

  1. jjthetrader
    Why point to VSA rather than Wyckoff? Because it's much simpler and way easier for daytrading. And I'm not pushing it on anyone or asking anyone to struggle through anything. In essence you're encouraging a newcomer to give up because TG's sales pitch is heavy or you think it doesn't work becuase you can't make it work? I'm encouraging someone to move forward because I know it works from experience.
  2. jjthetrader
    Mark, you got it! That's not only a mantra to trade by but to live by. Regarding Wyckoff, I found VSA much easier to adapt to daytrading. Plus VSA was born out of Wyckoff so it's methodology is sound. To Bearbull, I don't think these guys actually think they have the holy grail. In no way am I defending them but if you had a method that's 80% accurate would you mortgage your house to trade it? Todd Kruger himself only claimed 70% accuracy. It's just a way to help you trade and with the proper risk to reward 70% is more than enough. But not enough for a second mortgage. Lets not mistake VSA for tradeguider.
  3. jjthetrader
    Mark, welcome. Don't get too caught up in the way Sebastian "trades" this. He may or man not actually even trade. A lot of trading educators don't actually trade (Joel Pozen). You just don't know. Also, the bar by bar commentary is a style unique to Sebastian. It's not the only way to trade the principles. When I started out trading with VSA I thought it was something I was doing wrong because their methods didn't work all that well. Once I found my own style the methodology became brilliant. In a way it kinda sucks that TradeGuider has monopolized VSA. There is truth there but when you start to trade you start to see which aspects are the truth and which you can actually apply. Many traders have turned their trading career's around by adopting VSA. I'm one of them.
  4. jjthetrader
    Winnie, this would be even better because you'd then have the potential for a trap upmove to form. My morning session goes from 9:30am EST to 12pm EST.
  5. jjthetrader
    Well I don't care much for working full days so I only trade the morning session. On the 3 min I can expect at least 3 good setups in the morning. The ES is the only thing I trade at the moment. It's volatile enough to make your money in the morning. One of the reasons I like it is because the biggest traders in the world are trading it and since we're trying to follow them it makes sense to be where they are. Not that they aren't anywhere else, they're just in the ES in high proportion. With the recent volatility I've actually gone down to a tick chart because for a while I couldn't afford the stops needed on the 3 min. It's back to a reasonable speed now so the 3 min works for me again. However I took a liking to the tick chart so am still using it.
  6. jjthetrader
    What do you want to bet in the next Tradeguider event they start using our term 'completion bar'? lol. Candle, one thing I'd like to point out in the way I trade VSA is that if there's weakness in the background, especially if it's proven, that I discount low volume downbars. I don't do the whole bar by bar thing. That method isn't really tradable to me. What I look for is strength or weakness and then try and pinpoint my entry with a signal such as a no demand. Have you ever notices that the completion bar of a no demand reversal is almost always low in volume? This happens because it's an area where people don't really know if it's going up or going down because it's moving so slow in both directions. So at that point downward pressure doesn't really exist even though we know that it will because of our background. Then the volume will usually pick up on the bar after the completion bar. But the way you're reading it is technically correct and if you were emulating Sebastians technique then you'd probably be spot on. I'm jsut pointing out how I read it and make it easier on myself. Then there's TaweTrader who has a completely different way to read VSA but just as good or even better. It's a wonderful methodology that gets adapted by your style.
  7. jjthetrader
    No. It all depends what happens next really. A second low volume upbar might be a good thing because it's showing you a no demand on a higher timeframe. But this is an individual thing. I'd probably tighten up my stop.
  8. jjthetrader
    I would just be mindful of the close. The fact that a bar closed down after a no demand bar tells us our story.
  9. jjthetrader
    This stuff is not the forerunner or foundation of VSA at all. An indicator that incorporates volume doesn't make it VSA. Maybe you should start at the beginnig of this thread to find out what VSA is.
  10. jjthetrader
    Well, Winnie, CandleWhisperer and I have been discussing this over the last 5 or so pages. Have a look over it and you'll see our discussions about entry specifics. TaweTrader posted some really nice trades with commentary and specific entry levels. TradeGuiders intermediate trend is just average true range. It's way too slow in my opinion. You can't count on it. There are people however who use it in their trading plan. If it works for you then go for it.
  11. jjthetrader
    Yes again we're kind of getting lost in the word confirmation. What you're talking about are secondary signs of strength or weakness entering the market (confirmation). What I'm talking about is the confirmation of the confirming sign ;-) I'm looking at how and where to enter on this confirming sign. A test is a secondary confirmation of strength in the background and this test isn't actually complete until the second bar forms. So we may not want to call the second bar a confirmation bar but a completion bar. Does that make things less confusion? To complete a no demand signal the next bar must close down. And a test must do the opposite. It's true that TradeGuider takes 2 or 3 bars before it'll signal and it will print it's signals 2-3 bars back. It's a useful tool for beginners to learn all this stuff but as you get on it becomes a hinderance. If you want to trade with that diamond approach it's just a 5 period moving average. It tells you very little.
  12. jjthetrader
    Agreed. My trading finally started picking up when I started shorting on downbars. In this was you get the momentum to move you into profit faster. If you enter short on an upbar who is to say the next bar won't be up? So you're right Candle. I think a nice thing about this thread is that we take VSA and actually trade it. In this way we see what's real about it and what's smoke and mirrors to sell software.
  13. jjthetrader
    Candle, waiting for the next bar down still gives you a giid entry. If the no demand looking bar is just lack of buying for the moment then the professionals will still support it's low. So if the lows are broken then probability is on your side that it will continue, especially with weakness in the background. Regarding pivots, one of my favorite place to take shorts, no demands, are after an automatic bounce off of a pivots. Of course temp support will come in there, you'll get profit taking, and then a no demand will show up. You look to see how much support came in at that pivot. Was it enough for a bottom to be put in? At the very least you'll get a retest of the pivot. SO if your R:R is at least 1:1 to that point I would take it. If you were unsure then you could always short the retrace to it after it broke.
  14. jjthetrader
    You're right in your theory there. That's not what I was refering to but that is part of VSA. What I meant was that in VSA when you get a test looking bar it's not actually considered a test until the following bar closes up. That's the confirmation bar. For a no demand the confirmation bar would be the next one as well. If it closes down then you've confirmed your no demand. I don't like to wait that long which is why I put my orders where I do. But what you're speaking of is a great point. These multiple signs of weakness all confirm the supply in the market.
  15. jjthetrader
    No not really. You've got to have strength in the background before you'd consider taking a test. The test is your entry into the strength. On a trading note, you never know what a trade is going to do. You take the high probability ones and even the perfect looking setup can fail. Buying a pullback in a rally with strength in the background is high probability. You've got to find an entry and a test is your best bet. Candle, I agree with your options. I like Option2. Not just because you had your resistance there but because you couldn't even get as high as the last no demand and that bar you pointed out goes up and comes back down to close on it's low. With no demand/weakness in the background this is an awesome entry.
  16. jjthetrader
    If you're a gambler that's one way to trade. This is why VSA always wants to see a confirmation bar. That test only fails if you break it's low. Instead of the confirmation bar you could just as easily take the break high of the test bar. If a test bars low is going to be broken then chances are good that it's high won't and thus trigger you into a position. Tom Williams and the lot teach to enter on the close of a bar. If you actually trade then you know this is foolish. Trading strategies can be adopted around the methodology.
  17. jjthetrader
    Well Candle, that which catchs my eye first is the no demand you have marked within the box. I'd take it's break low and be prepared to get out, at what you have labeled Y1, if necessary. Forex is a much different beast than futures. Knowing how your market reacts when you get the signals you like to see is very important. So for this I think your opinion would carry more wight than mine. Having no centralized exchange to report data makes me a bit nervous being a volume trader. Having strong price action skills if a must in FX and my guess is you have them.
  18. jjthetrader
    Hey Sleepy, my number one is no demand just like CandleWisperer pointed out. There's a few reasons for this. 1. You can flip the whole setup upside down for long positions. Now you're playing both sides of the market with one setup. 2. The narrow spread affords you a tighter stop on the other side of that no demand. 3. They're alway showing up after a couple signs of weakness so they're easier to confirm. Upthrusts are cool but I'll be trading the no demand that follows them. I'm not saying what I do is right, I'm just saying it's what I do.
  19. jjthetrader
    Hell ya get short! This is one of my favourite setups. Yes there was potential support down below but in trading we're never looking for the market to continue in one direction forever. There was enough there to have a good risk to reward trade. Nice example.
  20. jjthetrader
    Agressive? lol, of course. We always take more agressive trades when its paper trading. Would you have considered that with real money? It was a nice double top but that bar closing on it's low, could that just as easily have been support and resistance traders at the double top area? I would have at least taken the trade (not that I would have taken that one) when the low of B was broken.
  21. jjthetrader
    Not sure, you could start a new one though if this is something you're interested in.
  22. jjthetrader
    Well I basically answered your question. The only reason I was willing to go into this topic here is because Winnie is trying to learn VSA. Are you making your inquiry with regards to VSA or just a basic trend question becuase a whole discussion on trend belongs in another topic. If you start one I'd be glad to contribute.
  23. jjthetrader
    This is very common. It's called counter trend trading and you can scalp it if you're fast but better to stay with the trend.
  24. jjthetrader
    Well, don't tell your subconscious you're stupid too often. You're new, not stupid. Trend is pretty easy actually. Don't get yourself confused with too many timeframes first off all. They'll alll be pointing in different directions and confuse you. First, what timeframe do you like to trade? Personally I trade the 3min. I don't ever look at a chart higher than 30min. I'm not a swing trader so it doesn't really impact my trade. I'm trading off 'mini' supply and demand pockets. A 30 min chart will tell you the story of the bigger picture to if you need it. Just look at the timeframe you like to trade off of. Are the bars forming higher highs and higher lows? When we have a run up are the pullbacks shallower than the advance? If so we're in an uptrend. If we're in an uptrend then it's good to be able to tell if there's strength in the background. The uptrend will last much longer if there is. Yes you could use a trend channel to tell you the trend but depending on the timeframe you trade, this could really lag. Bottom line, look for bars to form higher highs and higher lows and for each swing low to be higher than the previous. That's the simplest way I think. It's a great subject and I'd like to hear from others as well.
  25. jjthetrader
    Winnie, lets just think about an upthrust logically. Price moves up, hits an area of supply and comes back down to close on it's low. All the ones on your chart appear to be upthrusts but they're not all tradable. If you've got strength in the background, and you're heading up, then all of a sudden you get a thrust, look left. Chances are you're breaking an old top and support and resistance traders had their orders parked there. Yes that is supply but it won't change the trend, it'll pullback a couple bars. Typically we like to see upthrusts after major supply has hit the market. Once the big boys dump their load then you have a perfect spot for an upthrust to be tradeable. This is their one last push to shake everyone out before they move down. Upthrusts in a downtrend are perfect to unless demand has entered. If there's no sign of demand then take the one half way down. Price went up and tested, there's still supply and it closed on it's low. What market are you looking at?
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