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analyst75
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Posts posted by analyst75
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AUDUSD Market Dragged Lower on Bears Dominance
AUDUSD Price Analysis – August 15
The bears were in full control moving the market lower in the prior session, although in the present session we see the pair found buyers around the level at 0.6748 for the 4th day in a row while the pairs bear dominance is evident falling to lowest close since the beginning of the year.
Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7297, 0.7207, 0.7085
Support Levels: 0.6748, 0.6676, 0.6620
AUDUSD long term Trend: Bearish
In the bigger picture of the daily time frame, the decline from the level at 0.7207 (high) is seen as resuming the long term downtrend from 0.7297 (February high). Firm break of the level at 0.6876 (low) should confirm this bearish view.
On observation, further fall may be seen to the level at 0.6620 (low) next. On the upside, the break of the level at 0.7085 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium-term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of a strong rebound.
AUDUSD short term Trend: Ranging
On the flip side of the 4-hour chart, the AUDUSD is staying in consolidation from the level at 0.6676 and it’s intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, the break of the level at 0.6827 will extend the rebound.
But upside should be limited below the level at 0.6909 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, the break of the level at 0.6676 may target 100% projections from the level at 0.7085 to 0.6827 from 0.7085 at 0.6620 level reflecting on the daily chart.
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EURJPY Approached Recent Swing Lows, Likely to Breach the Low of the Year on the Level at 117.50
EURJPY Price Analysis – August 16
The pair depreciated again in value against the Japanese Yen. The currency pair during the mid-week breached both the upper and lower horizontal lines on the moving average 5 and 13 while completing another lap on the low in today’s session towards the low level at 117.50.
Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 123.01, 121.40, 119.91
Support Levels: 117.50, 117.00, 114.84
EURJPY Long term Trend: Bearish
The Daily time frame displays the EURJPY at the low, showing the pair is also testing a swing area on the level at the 117.50 to the level at 118.16 below the moving average 5 areas. The price attempted to dip below the area on August 12 to the low for the year on the level at 117.50, but could not keep the momentum going. The swing area was reestablished as support on August 13 and again today
However, buyers are trying to lean against the low level at 117.50, on the retest and hoping for a quick bounce. The trend is showing a bearish outlook in the medium and long term.
EURJPY Short term Trend: Ranging
On its Intraday, the bias in EURJPY remains neutral for the moment. With the level of 119.91 minor resistance intact, further decline is in favor. Although a break of the level at 117.50 will resume a large downtrend to the level at 114.84 support next.
However, on the break of 119.91 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. A stronger rebound should be seen to the horizontal resistance line now at 121.40.
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WHEN A CHECK/DRAFT IS PAID INTO YOUR ACCOUNT
They say it’s a rule from CBN. When a check/draft is paid into your account, especially from someone using another bank, you will receive a credit alert.
The credit alert will be there as an SMS alert, email alert and if you even login to your Internet banking area, you see it there. The name of the sender is not included.
THE STATUS OF YOUR CREDIT
The reality is that, the credit will never be added to your available balance. The book balance would be different from the available balance and you won’t be able to use it until after 48 hours. This would give your bank the time to confirm the cheek/draft. If it is genuine, the money would be added to your available balance. If it’s fake, the money would be removed from your account.
Sadly, most members of the public are not aware of this fact. Once many people see credit alerts from their banks, they believe it’s real money and they fall into traps. And scammers know that most people don’t know.
HOW BANKS AID AND ABET SCAMMERS
Some banks will send credits alert to you, as soon as a check is deposited into your account. This is wrong, and it’s the loophole that the scammers capitalize on. Why should banks send credits alerts for checks that have not been cleared (checks that have not been confirmed)?
It currency takes up to 48 hours to confirm a check or draft and banks should not send alerts to their customers until that is done. So, if the checks are later proven to be forged/spurious, the money would then be removed from your account. Many customers are not aware of this.
Sane employees of sane banks, know that it saves a lot of things, when a check/bank draft is confirmed before alerting customers. If the one who pays, or the payee is really in a hurry, then they should look for other ways to transfer money. Yes, there are other and better ways to transfer money… And insisting on draft/check should raise suspicion.
A bank that alerts customers without confirming a check is really adding and abetting scammers.
SCAMMERS ARE DIFFICULT TO CATCH
Yes, scammers are difficult to catch. Be suspicious of anyone who changes their numbers too often. Once they dupe someone and the person is threatening them, they remove the SIM and that person can never reach them again.
A scammer can pay one-year house rent and spend only a few months - only to change accommodations. Changing offices is not a big deal to them. They try their best to erase all traces to them and they do their best not to come in your way again, forever.
They’re good at forging documents and using fake addresses and fake things. Until you’re convinced that you’ve been duped, they’ll be giving you guarantee that all is well, and no problem and anything going wrong would be corrected.
Meanwhile, while they’re fooling you that there’s no problem, they’re packing away from their locations.
I can tell you that some (and most of these scammers) are married with children. Some of them are elderly people. Some of them are really gentlemen in society and they still dupe people.
They know about the loopholes in Nigerian laws and they know that if you can even catch one of them, you can never catch the rest of them.
WHAT NIGERIAN BANKS AND CBN CAN DO
CBN should instruct Nigerian banks that they should stop giving alerts to customers until the bank drafts and checks paid into their accounts, are confirmed to be valid. If a customer or those who may think they’re in a hurry, then they should use an electronic method or direct cash deposit to pay.
Yes, if they think they cannot wait for 48 hours or you can’t wait for 48 hours, for the bank draft to be cleared, then they should use another means of payment.
In this digital/electronics payment age, when banking technology has advanced so much, how can someone insist on using a bank draft or check to pay people?
Bank officials that don’t alert customers or put “locked” credits in their accounts until the checks have been cleared, are saving lots of lives. Bank officials that send credits alerts, when checks/drafts have not been cleared, are really not doing the right thing.
When banks start to refuse to credit or alert any customers (based on drafts or checks brought in their names), until the checks and the drafts are cleared and confirmed to be genuine, then scammers who forge checks and drafts will go out of the business. That’s the only way.
WHAT SCAMMERS DO AND HOW THEY BEHAVE
When people want to scam you, they usually pose as honest, dependable and trustworthy people. They do everything in their capacity to prove to you that you’re safe when doing business with them.
They’ll always tell you that they’ve been duped in the past, and they don’t want to be duped again. They’ll be asking you to confirm that you’re honest and safe to do things with.
They pretend to be very religious.
They pose like lawyers, accountants, bishops, imams, etc. They claim to be holding very high positions in society. They claim to have international experience and connections. They “prove” to be close friends with those who’re working at Chevron, Head of Bureau the Change or a senior nurse at LUTH. etc.
They put on corporate dresses and use cars to deceive people.
They pretend to be who they’re not. They assume titles of the positions you respect. They spend a lot of energy, days and resources (which could have been channeled into other productive things) trying to dupe you.
The best way they get you is through someone you know very well. They may be a family member, a church member, a neighbor, a friend, a customer, etc. Someone you think you can trust. They will come to you through that person, as the one who introduces them to you. You won’t know that the person has a money sharing deal with the scammers.
The premise is: The person you know, who introduces others to you, usually for business or contracts or projects, is presumed by you, as someone who will not deliberately betray you, because you’ve been dealing together for some time.
Some of them may call you through the phone number of the person you know, who introduces you to them.
Sometimes, they insist on using drafts or checks only, to pay you, for a flimsy reason. No matter how, they won’t give up on you until they succeed in duping you.
You won’t know what people are capable of doing, until you find yourself at their mercy.
The best thing is not to fall into their traps in the first place.
HOW THE PUBLIC CAN PREVENT THIS SCAM
One of the most effective ways to stop these scoundrels from their usual business and from destroying people’s life, is to create awareness and educate the public on how to guard themselves against these people.
1. No matter what they say… No matter what they claim to be… No matter where they come from… No matter how they try to convince you… NEVER NEVER accept bank draft or check payment from anybody or any company or organization. Never allow such a thing to be used to pay money into your account.
2. If no-one can do business with you unless they use a check or a bank draft, please forget about that business, no matter how “safe,” attractive or lucrative it may be.
3. If they cannot pay by cash or electronic money transfer, then they should forget about doing business with you. Or they can use the draft to pay one of their own people, and then the person can pay you with cash or electronic transfer.
4. Prevention is better than cure. It’s better to be safe than to be sorry. It’s better not to make money or not to do business, than to do what you will regret for the rest of your life.
5. If you must accept a bank draft or a check, please disregard any alerts that come to you in any form. Wait for at least, 72 business hours, and then, contact your account officer to confirm if the money from that check has been cleared and added to your available balance. You must ensure that you are able to use that money before you deliver anything to those who used the checks/drafts to pay.
Beware of anyone making it seem to be in a hurry to do business with you. If they’re really in a hurry, then they must use another means other than a bank draft or check to pay you. Never release anything or send anything until you’re able to confirm that you’re completely safe.
Please save people from penury and financial ruin. Save them from pains and losses. Share this information on websites, social media, WhatsApp, Skype, Telegram and Facebook groups.
Forward it to your exchangers and their customers and all those who deal in goods and services in return for payment. You don’t know whether the next person you’ll save is your loved one. Save someone today with this information.
Thanks for reading….
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Please send this message to the people you love if you don’t want them to be scammed. Also alert the authorities before they bring more pain and more ruin to innocent Nigerians.
They created a WhatsApp group that looks professional and they look for victims by inviting them on social media. They can comment on Facebook post of someone who has thousands of followers or they tag people with many friends so that innocent victims can join their groups, using the WhatsApp Invite link, and telling people they can be rich overnight.
What’s their message? “WE WILL DOUBLE YOUR MONEY WITHIN ONE HOUR.” Send a minimum of 10K (there is no maximum) and get 100% within 40 minutes. You can then re-invest the money.
They don’t have any websites they can really show. What they give you doesn’t exist, and they claim they don’t allow people to comment so people don’t spam them. This is partly correct. But they also don’t want people to comment that they’re fake.
You’re no allowed to comment in the group. Only the 3 admins below can do that.
+234 806 642 0723 – the head of the criminals
+234 816 427 2418 – a partner in crime
+234 816 563 1317 – a partner in crime
This is their WhatsApp invite link: https://chat.whatsapp.com/IURDuulYVex4j5rcRZ1emg
This is one of their adverts on Facebook:
“It's an investment platform were market woman and business men and also a student do invest and they are making it, It's an investment platform were you get 2times of what you invest, We are just using it to assist the citizens of the country for the betterment of life, It's a newly launched and it's really paying, It's very genuine and authentic platform, Like if you invest from 10k up word to 50k you will receive your double payment in the next 1hour you can chat us this Whatsapp Link below https://chat.whatsapp.com/IURDuulYVex4j5rcRZ1emg. Note no scamming of each other and your payment is guaranteed.” – Felix Blessing (apparently one of them).
Her Facebook profile is: https://web.facebook.com/felix.blessing.5201
They’ve no legitimate business model.
Sometimes, they enable the group to comments, usually for a few minutes. The comments are from those who testify that they have invested and have been paid, giving Glory to God, and promising to invest again. Admin will also reply by congratulating them. The screenshots they show you are really, really forged. And for those who’re real, it’s the screenshots of the alerts from the monies sent by their victims.
After a few minutes of testimonies, the group is disabled again so that people cannot comment. Needless to say, those who testify are also part of them.
The pictures they use on their WhatsApp profiles are fake. You can only private message them. So if you realize that you’ve been duped, you cannot alert others in the group. You’ll just be blocked privately. Those numbers don’t mean anything to them. If you raise too much dust, they can easily remove the SIMs and start using another lines while looking for more victims.
If 10 people leave the group, 30 people will be added, because Nigerians want to get rich quickly. Is that not the type of prayers they offer in the church (riches they don’t work for)?
They’ll try their best to persuade you, like saying “You’re in safe hands,” “Calm down.” “I’m a Christian.” Give us a benefit of the doubt.” “You have nothing to fear.” Etc., etc.
These 419 people belong to a large network of different players for a common purpose: to get your money. They appear Godly, religious, serious, sincere, convincing, rich, influential, with lots of high-security professions, until you fall into their traps.
They may also be using delay tactics after you’re duped. It’s when you begin to threaten them that they block you and remove their SIMs.
Really successful people don’t reveal their secrets. If they can really double money every 40 minutes, they don’t need to start looking for people to help. No-one loves you to the extent of persuading you to benefit from the secrets that can make them billionaire.
Someone turns 30 USD to 60 USD in 40 minutes. If that can be achieved, the whole money in the world will go to the person in less than one month. But this is a lie.
I don’t know when Nigerians will stop being gullible.
People like this should not be allowed to live in the society.
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I got an email over the weekend asking about the correlation if any between gold and the AUD and to be honest I didn’t know if there was any relationship between the two other than the long bow stories generated by economists. So I decided to have look. Whenever you start to look at the relationship between instruments you need to first define what you are looking at. The email I got implied that they looked the same at present therefore this implied some form of relationship.
At a glance both instruments at present seemed to be forming some form of broad congestion but this raises the question as to whether this a relevant observation since it would be possible to find hundreds of instruments that currently displaying the same pattern. However, a simple analogy will suffice to put this into context. If you have two cars driving side by side down a road this does not imply that they have either come from the same place or more importantly mean that they are heading towards the same destination. Correlation between instruments is more nuanced than simply observing that they look the same.
Correlation can be broken down into two parts, price correlation and returns correlation. Price correlation looks at whether prices move together with any degree of regularity and traders often stop their analysis here because they assume that if they move together then the impact of either an account or trading system will be the same. The issue with this is that it is not representative of the full picture. There is a second arm to correlations and this is the idea that returns between instruments can be correlated. It is important to note that it is possible for an instruments to have very high price correlations – in simple terms they look similar but have very different returns correlations. It is returns that matter to an account not whether something looks the same as something else.
When breaking down correlations I like to ask a simple question – what does the value of $1 look like if invested into each instrument since this takes into account their differing historical returns and unpacks any link between these returns.
As you can see from the chart the trajectory of $1 invested into either instrument shows at times a wildly diverging path which was exacerbated during gold’s Bull Run from 2008 and this raises the question for traders as to which possible returns would you like to expose your portfolio to. The issue here is not so much whether instruments look the same and have the same set up but rather what potential impact will trading them have upon your account. It is also quite easy to understand the differing nature of these returns by reference to the environment within which instruments exists.
Metals such as gold are free from Government interference – they can find their own level. Currencies are not free from such intervention, the fate of the AUD is intimately linked to Government policy and this ultimately puts boundaries around where the currency can go to. For example it is impossible for a currency pair to start its run at $0.75 and for it to be $7.50 three months later – this sort of move is the preserve of equities.
So outside of currently looking the same my answer to the question as to whether these two instruments share any meaningful connection for traders I would have to say no. There will also be someone who talks about the narrative behind the relationship between commodities and a given currency but my response to that is that this is an irrelevancy. Traders are not interested in stories or whether things look the same, they are or should be interested in returns.
You can view the charts attached to the articles here: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/correlation-between-gold-and-the-aud/
Author: Chris Tate
Article reproduced with kind permission of TradingGame.com.au
This piece is ended with the 3 quotes below:
“The main message I want traders to understand is how important the disciplined execution of a well thought out trading plan is in today's markets.” – Andy Jordan
“When you are overconfident, you are ripe for a major setback in the market.” – Joe Ross
“Every system begins in drawdown”. – Chris Tate
www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets
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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (December 17 - 21, 2018)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market, although the bearishness is not that strong. Price has been going downwards gradually, targeting the support lines at 1.1300, 1.1250 and 1.1200. These targets may be reached soon, but price may not go seriously below them as a strong reversal is expected to happen anytime, which will accompany some form of weakness in USD. This is what might bring about a bullish bias.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDCHF is bullish in the long-term, and neutral in the short-term. Nonetheless, looking more closely, it is revealed that price is a kind of rising gradually, and generating a “buy” signal, which would eventually become significant in case the market continues moving upwards. A meaningful bearish movement cannot be seen unless there is a considerable amount of loss on Greenback stamina.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable as bears continue to frustrate bulls’ effort to reverse the trend and push price upwards. Apart from Brexit and political news surrounding the UK, the US dollar stamina is preventing the market from going upwards. Once bears give way, there may be a significant rise in the market. Right now, the bearish bias remains in place and long positions are not currently recommended.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument is bullish in the long-term, and neutral in the short-term. The bullishness is not that great as there has not been a significant directional movement in the market. A rise in volatility remains a possibility before the end of this week or next week. Further movement to the upside will result in more emphasis on bullish outlook while a significant drop from here would result in a bearish outlook.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
The bias on this cross is generally neutral, as there has not been a significant directional movement for the past several weeks. It is possible that this neutrality would continue until the end of this year because trading activity is expected to thin out (unless there is a breakout between this week or next). For the neutrality to end, price would need to go above the supply zone at 131.00 or below the demand zone at 125.00, and this will no doubt, require a strong bullish momentum.
GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is a confirmed bearishness (Bearish Confirmation Pattern) on this cross, because of the weakness in GBP. This trend will continue until it is clear that things are no longer bearish. That will be this week or next, and before that happens, there could still be at least, a movement of about 200 pips towards the south.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“However, if a trading strategy has been proven to work over the long run, with a quality risk to reward profile, it needs to be adhered to no matter the way trades play out. Ask yourself a question: is it the trading strategy producing the results or the trader producing the results?” – Sam Evans
Source: www.tallinex.com
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Technical Reviews for Gold and Silver (December 2018)
GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
Gold has been making attempts to go upwards this month. The attempt started on November 13, when price reached the monthly low of 1195.90, and since then, price has gained roughly 5200 pips. This has generated a bullish signal in the market (both in the long-term and the short-term). The bullish signal is supposed to be sustained until the end of the year as price gains another 3000 pips minimum, thereby creating a huge Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Short positions are not currently recommended.
SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Neutral
Unlike Gold, which has had a sensible bullish signal on it, Silver remains neutral, with no directional movement in the last few weeks. In the long run, the neutrality has been in place since August 2018. Although there seems to be some noticeable bullish effort in the short-term, that is not significant enough to result in a bullish signal, unless price goes above the supply zone at 15.0000, which would require some determined buying pressure in the market. While the current consolidation will probably continue for some time, the trend is expected to end before the end of this year, leading to a breakout that will most probably favor bulls.
Source: www.tallinex.com
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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (December 3 - 7, 2018)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The bias is neutral in the short-term and bearish in the long-term. Last week, price swung upwards and downwards without having a directional movement. That is going to change this week, as a prolonged directional movement is expected, which would most probably favor bulls, as price is approaching major support lines at 1.1250 and 1.1200 (areas where further bearish effort will be rejected).
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Although inversely, when compared to the EUR/USD, this pair is neutral in the short-term and bullish in the long-term. The market also moved upwards and downwards last week, without any clear direction. This week, a clear directional movement is anticipated and that would most probably favor bears. This does not mean there cannot be rally attempts, but it would meet a strong hindrance at the resistance levels of 1.0050, 1.0100 and 1.0150.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market – both in the long and the short term. Bullish efforts have proven abortive as the market retains its bearishness. On Friday, price closed at 1.2744, and it may go further downwards towards the accumulation territory at 1.2700, and below that. However, the further southwards the price goes, the higher the probability of a bullish breakout when it does happen, and that will be strong when it happens.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDJPY is slightly bullish – with a kind of precarious Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Further rally from here will result in a stronger Bullish Confirmation Pattern; while a southwards movement from here will result in nullification of the Bullish Confirmation Pattern, which may harbinger a “sell” signal in the market. Either of the aforementioned scenario will materialize this week, for a rise in momentum is expected.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
This is a neutral market, which has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks. The consolidation phase is bounded by the supply zone at 130.00 and the demand zone at 126.00. As long as price is within that supply zone and that demand zone, the consolidation phase will exist. On the other hand, there should be an end to the consolidation phase before the end of the week. It is after that that winners will be determined; either the bull or the bear.
GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
This is a flat market, which has been particularly flat since the middle of November 2018. There is supposed to be an end to the flatness this week, because a rise in the momentum of the market is expected. The most probable direction would be skywards when a breakout does occur, because there is a high probability that GBP will gain enormous stamina. The supply zones at 146.00, 146.50 and 147.00 might be reached soon.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Trading is like playing chess; you can learn a lot about it by reading books but if you really want to get good in it, you actually have to do it on your own. Practice is necessary to becoming successful in many professions; and trading is one of them!” – Andy Jordan
Source: www.tallinex.com
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THERE IS NO MAGIC
“Your trading methodology has to make sense for you even if it’s the opposite of what makes sense for other people. Choices made in developing your approach to trading should suit you personally to minimize internal conflict. Only then will you have the confidence to remain true to its development and its execution during tough times. The long-term advantage of developing your own system from scratch (rather than trading someone else’s system) assures you of high compatibility with your beliefs, personality, edges, and objectives. That compatibility becomes one of your sustainable edges. As Curtis Faith of Turtle fame noted: “It’s not about the system, it’s about the trader’s ability to execute the system.” – (Source: VanTharp.com)
LB and I have just wrapped up the final in our series on full time trading. For the most part they have been enjoyable except for one twat who complained that it was unprofessional of LB to not present when she was suffering from severe laryngitis. Presenting for the first time in years is an interesting thing as the expectations of those you present to also change over time.
This particular series could be summarised as all the mistakes I have made in trading and the solutions I have found such as they are. One of the things I have learnt over the past few decades is that there is no magic. Trading is a grinding profession where your central tenet is not to go broke waiting for the next big move. I think in part some attendees were waiting for the magic.
That point in the seminar where you do a grand reveal of your magic strategy that never has a losing trade which means you can quit your job tomorrow and start trading full time with nothing other than a credit card because CFD providers will now in their wisdom allow you to fund your account with credit and earn frequent flyer points.
Regrettably the field of investing has been tainted by endless shonks who have polluted the thinking of people before they even set foot in the market. Before writing this piece, I Googled trading bitcoin for a living and got 35,900,000 returns. Certainly not all of them relate to trading bitcoin or any other crypto full time but if even 10% do then then that’s a staggering 3.5 million sites promising people that they can give up their day job and start trading overnight.
The central theme of these sorts of sites and it is not limited to cryptos is that you can trade full time with very limited capital. And you can do this because you will never have a losing trade. Your equity curve will be a linear trajectory that soars from the bottom left hand corner of the chart to infinity without ever breaking stride. I can understand why this sort of thing has permeated the thinking of new traders.
Whilst this sounds seductive it ignores many of the key realities of trading the foremost of which is that trading does not produce linear returns. We encounter a feature of equity curves called drawdown. All trading systems generate drawdowns – in a very general sense if you are a trend following you expect to have a drawdown of between 15% to 25% once per year. As an example, consider the equity curve below.
This is the equity curve of Dunn Capital a money manager that uses trend following as its basic tool. You see decades of outperformance punctuated by drawdowns. There is an inviolate relationship between performance and drawdown, if you are swinging fr the fences you need to expect to be struck out a lot. Irrespective of the trading system drawdown is a fact of life for traders – it can only be avoided by not trading. If someone tells you that their equity curve never draws down, then they are a liar. It really is that simple.
The implication for those seeking to trade full time is that your first drawdown will coincide with your move to full time trading. This is a natural feature of systems, they cut their losses and then let their profits run. There is a timing dislocation between these two events that results in the account value immediately slipping. The problem is that this occurs at a time when you are most economically and emotionally vulnerable, it is also a problem because most new traders are undercapitalised. They simply don’t have enough money because they have not thought their transitions through and they may or may not have been infected by the thinking that you can give up your day job and earn 100k a year on a bank of 50k. It is at this point in a seminar that I can see how people begin to sag because it begins to dawn on them that they need much more than think to survive as a trader.
However, I think they are missing the bigger picture since the move to full time trading does not have to be an all-in proposition. The move can occur gradually over time as your capital grows and you acquire more skill. And along the way your life begins to change in small but incremental amounts. You may even reach a point where you stop believe in magic and start believing in your own ability to slowly and inexorably change your own life.
Author: Chris Tate
Article reproduced with kind permission of the author.
Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/there-is-no-magic/
I end this piece with the quotes below:
“Just coming back from vacation where we’ve been doing a lot of hiking in the mountains, here’s an analogy. You’re standing on a peak of a mountain looking at an even higher peak. But to get there you first have to go down that small valley…no way around it!
It's the same in trading, so as long as the size of the drawdown is within your expectations, you can and should relax when you’re in a drawdown. It's just a necessity you have to endure to get those profits. So understanding and accepting Drawdowns as part of this business will make your life as a trader much easier!” – Marco Meyer (Source: Tradingeducators.com)
“Having said that drawdowns are still making me uncomfortable. I don't like them at all and each time I'm in a big one I'm having the same doubts and troubles most of you probably have too. But knowing that actually nothing is wrong helps a lot to make it through these times. Without that knowledge and understanding, you not only have the doubts but you allow them to win over, follow them and then probably stop trading at the worst time possible.” – Marco Meyer (Source: Tradingeducators.com)
www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets
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Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
EURUSD has become particularly bearish since last week (the bearishness has been in place since August 2018). On November 7, another phase of a bearish movement was begun and price has really become weak. There are support lines 1.1250, 1.1200 and 1.1150, which would tend to impeded further bearish journey. The outlook for this week is bearish, and thus long trades are not currently recommended.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is currently doing exactly the opposite of what EURUSD is doing. The trend is bullish and the bullishness has been in place for a long time. On Wednesday, there was a new lease of bullish breakout, which has made the market skyrocket by nearly 150 pips. The bullish trend is still in place as there is a high probability that price will continue going upwards this week, reaching the resistance levels at 1.0100, 1.0150 and 1.0200. It is highly unlikely that price will be able to stay above the resistance level at 1.0200, even if it breaks it to the upside.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The situation surrounding the Cable is currently dicey. The long-term trend is bearish and the short-term trend is bullish. However, the current selling pressure is undermining the short-term bullish signal in the market. Since last week Wednesday, the market has lost well over 320 pips, and another loss of at least, 300 pips, will result in a stronger Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. .
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
There is an undisputable Bullish Confirmation Pattern on this currency trading instrument. In the long run, price has gained over 900 pips since March 2018, plus the current bullish breakout has occurred since October 29. Some other JPY pairs are currently trending downwards, but USDJPY remains strong, thanks to the strength in Greenback. The current strength should remain in place, otherwise, a massive bearish movement could begin.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross is bearish in the short-term, but neutral in the long-term. In the long run, the market is quite choppy; whereas there has been a slow and steady bearish movement in the shorter timeframe. The recent bullish signal that was generated (especially last week), has been threatened by the ongoing southwards movement in the market. The further the price moves downwards, the more convincing the weakness in the market.
GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market is a kind of bullish in the short-term; but the situation in the market is precarious as the trend remains undecided in the long-term, and the bull is almost giving way to the bear’s pressure. Since Friday, GBPJOY has lost 320 pips, now getting close to the demand zones at 145.00. The demand zone could be breached to the downside, which may render the recent “buy” signal in the market useless; otherwise, the “buy” signal will be saved.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Money is made as a by-product of following a sound trading plan, and adhering to the principles of money management.” – Louise Bedford
Source: www.tallinex.com
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Technical Reviews for Gold and Silver (November 2018)
GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Gold is bearish is the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. Since April 2018, price has shed 20,000 pips, reaching a yearly low of 1159.00. However, price has been ranging since the yearly low was reached in August, as speculators await breakouts of the price. There have recently been wild upwards and downwards swings, which have not been strong enough to put an end to the ongoing sideways movement in the market. This is supposed to happen before the end of November and the most probable direction is towards the north.
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SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Exactly like Gold, Silver is also bearish in the long-term and sideways in the short-term. Since the top of April 2018, price has gone downwards by over 30,000 pips, reaching an annual low of 13.0000 in September 2018. Since then, the market has become very choppy with no directional movement. A movement towards the annual low will give emphasis to the ongoing Besrish Confirmation Pattern in the market; otherwise a protracted bullish movement, which goes on for a few days consecutively, will result in a valid bullish signal.
Source: www.tallinex.com
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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (October 27 - November 2, 2018)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
EURUSD is in a bearish trend – which started about 2 weeks ago. Price went downwards by roughly 160 pips last week, having gone down by 250 pips since October 15. Further bearish movement is anticipated, that would move price towards the support lines at 1.1350 (which was previously tested and will be tested again), 1.1300, and 1.1250. However, a very strong selling pressure is needed to break the support line at 1.1250 to the downside.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
There remains a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on USDCHF, which has been in place for at least, 4 weeks. Since the current bullish movement began in September 21, price have moved forwards by about 470 pips. Last week, there was no significant bullish movement, and price closed on a bearish note on Friday, which was presumed to be a temporary reversal in the context of an uptrend. The bullish journey is expected to resume soon.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The movement on Cable is nearly similar to the movement on EURUSD – the only difference being that the movement on the former is faster than the movement on the latter. Since October 12, price has dropped at least, 450 pips, as the market makes high lows and lower lows. Higher lows allow traders to enter short at better prices, and it is a pattern that is expected to continue as Cable targets the accumulation territories at 1.2800, 1.2750 and 1.2700.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market is bearish, especially in the short-term; and in spite of bulls’ effort, a bearish signal has already been generated and this will become more significant as the market goes further southwards (a trend that is expected this week and next week). There would be pauses and transitory rallies on the way, but the demand levels at 111.50, 111.00 and 110.50 would be reached.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a classic example of a bearish movement. Since September 21, price has dropped roughly 600 pips, thus giving a rise to a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern. The market will continue its drop this week, as JPY continues to exert its energy. There is going to be lots of opposition to the bearish trend once price reaches the demand zone at 126.50, nonetheless. But with enough selling pressure, the demand zone will be breached to the downside.
GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
There was a massive drop on the GBPJPY, which happened last week, and which ended the protracted ranging movement that was seen in the latter part of September 2018 and the early part of October 2018. The last week drop was over 400 pips, as the weakness in GBP was too favorable to the stoing JPY. Price closed on a bearish note on Friday, following some shallow upwards bounces. Further drop of at least, 250 pips is anticipated this week.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Markets go up and markets go down. Sometimes they go up a lot and sometimes they go down a lot.” – Chris Tate
Source: www.tallinex.com
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THESE 4 TRAITS WILL MAKE TRADERS SUCCESSFUL
If you have a passion for trading, Dr. Brett Steenbarger has some choice words for you: you're not going to make it. Instead, traders need to be passionate about markets. It may sound like a minor distinction, but it's not. In decades of working with billionaire hedge fund managers and traders, he's found that traders that are passionate about trading don't put in the work and trade too much.
To be successful trading, Dr. Steenbarger has learned:
1. A rule of thumb for how traders should control losses so that they never lose more in a morning than they can make in an afternoon, more in a day than they can make in a week and more in a week than they can make in a month;
2. Why traders should not just focus on minimizing their weaknesses, but also maximizing their strengths;
3. A simple trading journal that will help you improve each day; and
4. That the best traders are ones that embrace losses and use them to become better.
Author: Dr. Brett Steenbarger
Source: https://blog.topsteptrader.com/brett-steenbarger-limit-up-futures-trading
www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets.
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Technical Reviews for Gold and Silver (October 2018)
GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Gold is bearish in the long-term, but bullish in the short-term. Price skyrocket on October 11, thus bringing about a bullish signal in the short-term. In the long-term, Gold would need to continue making its bullish effort before the long-term bias can become bullish as well (provided the market continues going upwards). A movement to the south, would invalidate the short-term bullish signal and strengthen the bears’ position and enable a bearish trend continuation. However, a move to the upside is the most likely.
SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Silver is neutral in the short-term, and bearish in the long-term. Should the market continue its current consolidating movement, the long-term bias also may become neutral. It is more likely that the current market condition will continue, until the situation changes around the end of November 2018. That means a breakout is more likely to occur, and when it does occur, it would most probably favor bulls. Either there would be a bullish breakout by the end of November, or there would be a continuation of the current short-term consolidation.
Source: www.tallinex.com
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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (October 8 - 12, 2018)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market was bearish last week, and the bearishness has become pronounced since September 26, 2018. Since the mentioned period, price has lost about 300 pips (or more or less). The market would remain bearish as long as USD is strong, and the support lines at 1.1450, 1.1400 and 1.1350 may be tested. There could be temporary bullish effort on the way, but the general movement this week should be bearish.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on this market has been steady and unaffected. Since September 21, price has gained about 390 pips (it gained about 140 pips last week). Price topped at 0.9953 and ended Friday on a slight bearish note. The outlook for this week is bearish, as price is expected to continue going upwards until it reaches the resistance level at 1.0000 where a very strong and stiff resistance will be met.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The bias on the GBP is bearish but there is a serious rise in a bullish momentum, which would eventually render the bearish outlook ineffectual. Price went downwards from Monday till Wednesday and then started going upwards. The upwards movement was strong enough to threaten the extant bearishness in the market, and once the market gains another 200 pips (which is expected to happen this week), the bias on the market will turn bullish.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDJPY went upwards from October 1 to 3, and then started going downwards from October 4. Unless the demand levels at 112.00 is breached to the downside, the outlook on the market will remain bearish. A movement from here, towards the north, will result in confirmation of the current bullish bias. That means failure to go upwards will eventually result in “sell” signal in the market.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross is bearish in the short-term, but bullish in the long-term. The movement that was experienced last week was not that much, but this week might be different, as JPY pairs break out with renewed momentums. Should price drop 200 pips from here, the bias on the market will turn bearish. Should price rise by 200 pips from here, the long-term bullish bias on the market will eventually be saved.
GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The rally attempt that was seen last Friday ended the consolidation that was witnessed in the last two weeks. If not for the fact that the JPY is kind of strong in its own right, the market would have gone upwards significantly last week (Just as GBPCHF, GBPAUD and GBPNZD have gone significantly upwards). However, any signs of weakness in JPY may result in a strong bullish movement, which may enable price to reach the supply zones at 149.50, 150.00 and 150.50.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Your trading life is the sum total of all of your experiences, not just the ones you are comfortable with.” – Woody Johnson
Source: www.tallinex.com
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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (October 1 - 5, 2018)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has become bearish, especially in the short-term. Last week, price went sideways from Monday to Wednesday and then dropped sharply on Thursday and Friday. The drop was 170 pips, and it was enough to bring about a near-term bearish outlook on the market. This week, the bearishness could continue as the market is projected to drop at least, another 100 pips, which would enable the support line at 1.1500 to be reached.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on USDCHF, brought about by the strength in the Greenback (and the bearish run on EURUSD). The rate at which USDCHF has gone upwards is faster and more serious that the rate at which EURUSD has come downwards. Price gained 230 pips last week, ending the recent bearishness in the market and ending September 28 on a bullish note. The outlook on the market is bullish for this week.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
In the first 3 weeks of September, Cable made commendable effort to bring about a sustainable bullish signal in the market. Nevertheless, the downward movements that was witnessed on September 21, 27 and 28, have rendered the bullish effort useless. In fact, the bias on the market is now bearish and the accumulation territories at 1.3000, 1.2950 and 1.2900 could be tested before the end of the week.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This is a bull market, with a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern. The strength of USD, plus the perceived weakness in JPY, has helped the buying pressure in the last few weeks. Since September 7, the market has gained about 320 pips, and it might gain at least, another 200 pips within the next 2 weeks. This week is going to be volatile for JPY pairs, as it is the new week of the October.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
On September 24 and 25, this cross went sideways. From September 26 to 28, it began to pull back. The pullback was not significant enough to bring about a bearish signal in the market, unless price falls by another 200 pips. From this point, price has a higher probability of going upwards than going downwards, and as a result of this, the supply zones at 132.00, 132.50 and 133.00 might be attained before the end of this week.
GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
There is a valid bullish outlook on this trading instrument, irrespective of the fact that the market movement was flat throughout next week. It is possible that the flatness in the market could continue for a few more days, before there is a breakout in the market. When the breakout occurs eventually, it would end the current flatness in the market and most probably favor bulls. The expected bullish movement could even become significant, especially when GBP finally begins to gather strength.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“…The good thing is that there is no age limit when it comes to trading and, unlike the Olympics, you don't have to worry so much about the physical part as you can go for gold from the comfort of your chair.” – TradingEducators
Source: www.tallinex.com
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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (September 24 - 28, 2018)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The current bias on the market is bullish, but the bullishness is not very strong. Price consolidated in the first few trading days of last week, and went higher on Thursday. The outlook on the market remains bullish for this week, and thus, buying pressure may take price towards the resistance lines at 1.1750 (which was previously reached), 1.1800 and 1.1850. There is also a good support line at 1.1650, which should try to prevent any meaningful pullback along the way.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market dropped roughly 100 pips last week, having dropped 400 pips since August 17, 2018. Since there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is assumed that the price should continue going further and further downwards, reaching the support levels at 0.9550, 0.9500 and 0.9450 within the next few weeks. There could be some transitory rallies along the way, but they should not be significant to the extent of overriding the current bearish market. .
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This long-term and the short-term biases are bullish. Since August 16, 2018, price gained 600 pips, resulting in a confirmed “buy” signal. On September 21, there was a serious pullback in the market, which made price drop 200 pips from the high of that day. The drop was not strong enough to bring about a “sell” signal, unless the market drops at least, another 200 pips. This will determine what the market will do next.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
About two weeks ago, a clean bullish signal was generated on this currency trading instrument, and the signal has been sustained till now. For about two weeks, price has gone northwards slowly and gradually, gaining about 200 pips. There is much room for price to go northwards: The supply levels at 113.00, 113.50 and 114.00 could be aimed at, although a very strong buying pressure is needed to reach the supply level at 114.00..
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Like USDJPY, this cross has been going upwards in the last two weeks (a gain of roughly 500 pips). Since there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, further northwards journey is possible, even in spite of the minor bearish retracement that was witnessed last Friday. The supply zones at 135.50, 136.00 and 136.50 could be reached within the next several trading days. They could even be exceeded.
GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since a bullish signal was generated on GBPJPY, price has made a significant gain. Nonetheless, there was a pullback on September 21, which cannot be ignored (a pullback of 240 pips). It is normal for price to resume its northward journey from here, giving a good opportunity to go long at lower prices. On the other hand, the market could pull back further, and that may threaten the recent bullish signal.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Any one of the many trading strategies available to traders can be used following the principle of matching personal risk tolerance to the amount of risk in the market.” – Joe Ross
Source: www.tallinex.com
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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (September 17 - 21, 2018)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral
The bias on EUR/USD has essentially turned neutral, as price has not made any significant upwards or downwards movement in the last several trading days. There is a resistance line at 1.1750, and there is a support line at 1.1500. Either the resistance line must be breached to the upside, or the support lines must be breached to the downside before there could be a directional bias. That is what is expected before the end of this week or next.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market. In the medium-term, the market has been swinging up and down. The price action is characterized by higher lows (which proffer opportunities to sell short at slightly higher prices), and lower lows, which follow the line of the least resistance. The most probable direction for the market this week is bearish. Price has remained bearish when EURUSD was weak, and therefore, it would be very difficult for USDCHF to trend upwards when EURUSD breaks out upwards.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
A clean bullish signal has already been generated in the market. Even in the higher time horizon, price has been going upwards in the past four weeks. On Friday, the market closed on a slightly bearish note – which would eventually turn out to be a temporary pullback in the market. The recent bullish journey is expected to resume, and the distribution territories at 1.3100, 1.3150 and 1.3200 may be reached within two weeks.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
A straightforward bullish signal has been generated and there is a high probability that the market would continue to make higher highs, owing to the Bullish Confirmation Pattern that was present in the market. Within the next several trading days, price is expected to reach the supply levels at 112.50, 113.00 and 113.50. There is also a demand level at 111.00, which is supposed to be a barrier to any bearish pullbacks along the way.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The bias is bullish, but the bullishness is weak. Further bullish movement is expected but any surprisingly negative fundamentals can send the market tumbling (owing to the precariousness of the market). The next targets are the supply zones at 130.50, 131.00 and 132.00. A very strong buying pressure is needed for the supply zone at 132.00 to be breached to the upside, and this will not come without bearish machinations.
GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross gained about 370 pips last week, having gained over 700 pips since August 15. Price closed on Friday, around the demand zone at 146.00. The outlook on the market remains bright, and therefore, in spite of any possible pullbacks in the market, general movement will be towards the north. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market will aid price towards the supply zones at 146.50, 147.00 and 147.50.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“I realized that the more common pitfalls you avoid, the more edges you have relative to other traders operating with less awareness.” – VTI
Source: www.tallinex.com
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TIMELY EXIT
“Successful Trading Is Not About Being Right.” – VTI
What is your tolerance for pain? Consider the following scenario. You have 10% of your account balance on the line. For the past two days, prices have been going in the direction you had anticipated, but today, an announcement was made that caused a market move that caused all your profits to be wiped out in an hour. What will you do? See if prices will move back to where you are okay again? At times like these, it is useful to have a clearly defined trading plan with a specific exit strategy.
Trading is inherently uncertain. You never know exactly what will happen next. That’s what makes the business exciting to some traders but nerve wracking to others. How you handle adverse events that make prices move against you depends on your personality. The best way to protect your capital is to use protective stops. When formulating your trading plan, you must decide how much pain you can tolerate. How much money can you lose before you have to exit the trade? You can set this exit point as a formal stop loss, you can use the automatic settings on your trading platform to set a stop, or you can use a mental stop (not recommended).
The problem with a formal stop loss procedure, whether it is a formal order or an automatic setting on your trading platform, is that a transitory change in price can ‘stop you out.’ if the placement of your stop loss does not adequately account for volatility. It’s hard to know how far a stock may move and a temporary drop can ruin your trading plan when a protective stop is not set properly. Mental stops may be more useful, but you run the risk of not being able to exercise your mental stop (think heart attack, nervous breakdown, stroke, personal emergency, computer failure, etc.). You can decide how far a stock price must move against you before you will liquidate the position. When prices reach the exit point, you can decide whether the low price is transitory or represents a significant change in trend. You can then exit the trade.
This all sounds good in theory, but depending on your personality, you may not be able to carry out this strategy. If you have trouble controlling your emotions and you use a mental stop, for example, you may have trouble closing the trade when it reaches your exit point. Some people panic and out of fear don’t close their position when their mental stop is reached. These people may need to impose the proper amount of discipline on their trading actions by using an electronic stop or a formal stop-loss order.
Minimizing trading losses is the hallmark of successful trading, but not all traders are equal when it comes to their ability to trade decisively under strain. If you want to trade profitably, you have to work around your personality. If you are cool headed, disciplined, and are willing to take the risk even under the most stressful conditions, you can use mental stops to protect your capital. But if you are easily shaken by choppy market action, you might want to use electronic, automatic stops to protect yourself. Whatever you do, however, minimize losses as much as possible. It’s the only way to trade profitably in the long run.
Author: Joe Ross
Source https://www.tradingeducators.com/edition-733
The article is ended with 3 quotes below:
“Getting out of trades too early with tiny profits very often is a sure road to bankruptcy. Sure it feels good to take some off the table right away…but it’s hardly ever successful in the long run.” - Marco Mayer
“To make money out of these still requires good management. It is always challenging to see some traders make money from a trade while some traders lose money from the very same trade.” – Joe Ross
“Don’t let those losses lead to mindset traps that can stop you from taking the next trade. Change the way you think about your loss, and you’ll regain your motivation. I guarantee it.” – Louise Bedford
www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets.
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Technical Reviews for Gold and Silver (September 2018)
GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Gold is a bear market. In August price dipped by over 6000 pips, reaching around the support level of 1160.00 (a support level). From there, price moved upwards by 5000 pips and then moved sideways till the end of the month. All this happened in the context of a downtrend; plus the market has been moving sideways in the last two weeks. A breakout is imminent, and that would happen anytime before the end of September and it would most probably favor bears. Thus price is expected to go downwards by at least 5000 pips from here.
SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Just like Gold, Silver is also bearish, but its downwards movement is more pronounced than that of Gold. Price dropped roughly 10,000 pips in August alone and it has dropped 32,000 pips since June 14, 2018. Owing to the current Bearish Confirmation Pattern, it is rational to expect further bearish movement (at least another 10,000 pips) in September. 4000 pips have already been lost this month, and after the current consolidation ends, further bearish journey should continue, leading to more shedding of pips.
Source: www.tallinex.com
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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (September 3 - 7, 2018)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair started rising on August 15, and it gained more than 400 pips since then. However, there was a bearish retracement that took place last Thursday and Friday, which was not significant enough to override the recent bullish bias in the market (unless there is at least, 300 pip-drop from here). Price is supposed to recover and move higher this week, reaching the resistance lines at 1.1600, 1.1650 and 1.1700; which were all previously tested.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market. Since the last consolidation phase ended, price has come down by over 250 pips, closing on a bearish note on Friday. Since there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is rational to expect further bearish pressure, which may push price towards the support levels at 0.9650, 0.9600 and 0.9550. The selling pressure needs to be significant for the support level at 0.9550 to be breached to the downside.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable is bullish in the short-term, but bearish in the long-term. Further northward movement will endangered the long-term bearish bias, while further southwards movement will strengthen it. Price closed below the distribution territory at 1.2900 on Friday, and may go slightly lower before any rally effort is made. The possibility of price moving lower is stronger than its possibility of moving higher.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
The bias is now essentially neutral, and the situation in the market is currently dicey (as the market is choppy). Recently, price has swung between the supply level at 112.00 and the demand level at 109.50. As long as price is between these demand and supply levels, the neutrality in the market will persist. Once the demand level is breached to the downside (and price stays below it) or the supply level is breached to the upside (and price stays above it), the neutrality will end and a directional bias will start. Nevertheless, this requires a strong momentum to happen.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since August 15, price has gained roughly 600 pips, before the bearish movement that was witnessed on August 30 and 31. From last week’s high, price went downwards by 200 pips, and it could still go downwards by another 100 pips or more or less. The bullish bias will remain intact as long as price does not go below the demand zone at 126.00. Bulls will generally continue to endeavor to push the price upwards.
GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The cross is bullish in the very short-term (though the long-term bias is somewhat bearish). A strong movement towards the south will result in more emphasis on the recent bearishness in the market, while a strong movement to the upside will result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. On the upside, the supply zones at 144.50, 145.00 and 145.50 could be reached, provided the market does not continue its current bearish correction.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Those who know me or who have traded with me know that I am always looking for a simple and straightforward approach to trading.” – Andy Jordan
Source: www.tallinex.com
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Posted · Edited by analyst75
Staying Within Previous Boundary EURJPY Continues to Trade Within a Range
%2> EURJPY Price Analysis – August 23
In today’s trading session, the common European currency traded sideways against the Japanese Yen. The currency pair was trading below the moving average 5 and 13 since yesterday’s trading session. We may see bearish traders pressurize the currency pair towards the level at 117.50 before the end of today’s trading session.
Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 123.01, 119.88, 118.33
Support Levels: 117.65, 117.50, 117.00
EURJPY Long term Trend: Bearish
In the daily picture, the EURJPY pair may most likely maintain the price range during the next trading session. Alternatively, a breakout may occur downwards.
While the exchange rate has been trading within the range of the level at 118.33 and 117.50 since mid-August. The trend is bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the medium and long-term.
EURJPY Short term Trend: Bearish
Today’s trading range has been going negative and more, and that’s below the last trading month’s daily average range. On the flip side, we may see a change in trend with renewed upward strength.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high towards the level at 118.33 where further buy stops might get activated. Although with the level at 119.88 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish.