amory hill

A few assumptions: if any of these strike you as odd or unreasonable, please don't read on. 1. the Perfect System does not exist. 2. some Traders are more Successful than others - why, because they are doing Something right. 3. some Traders are successful Sometimes, but they lack the necessary Concentration & Dedication to create lasting results.. 4. regardless scams & rip-offs, a Computer CAN do it better Is anyone still with me? No objection to (4)? then let us keep going. In the 1970's Bobby Fischer who was then world chess champion, declared that there is no way a computer can ever beat a grandmaster. Chess requires not just skill & calculation, but also an element of surprise, sacrifice & imagination! Not long ago, the latest Fritz super-computer held the reigning champion Anand to a draw over 3 games .. that means it actually beat him once.* An element of surprise, sacrifice & imagination! Does this not apply equally to the markets? If you ask me, winning at Forex or other branches of trading is a lot easier than winnning at chess. Even with limited skill & training, you will make the occasional profit. Not so at chess, which takes years of study & practice. So how come a computer can learn to beat the world champion, but cannot produce consistent results on the markets? Easy: it's all a matter of training, in other words programming. The winning chess computer would have been programmed by grand-masters - result they (the grandmasters) have no hope of beating the world champion, but the computer has learnt enough from them to be able to do it. Conclusion: all that's required to create the necessary computer program in our line of endeavor, is for several clever people to stick their heads together & along with an expert programmer or two, feed all their clever ideas into it. Remember, there is no limit to what a computer can absorb & calculate. Let me give a simple example: let us say I 've got something on my charts that produces coloured arrows for up or down. And let us say I do quite well with that, but it's only one of a dozen things I need to actually get a reliable alert. How do I feed that into a computer? Just simply feed the whole system into it, it will be able to use it instantly. But I've got a dozen such criteria, do I feed them all into the computer? Of course, it can handle a hundred programs in seconds. You can't, the computer can! Back to the well-intentioned traders who are going to stick their heads together. Myself, I'd be more than happy to co-operate with such a gang of 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 .. trust me, between us, we'd create the super-champ of all times!

looking at the DowJones & comparing the bearish patterns in feb/march, then in june & then up to a fortnite ago: they look very similar, on each occasion a couple of nasty dips followed by a tentative rise & eventual resumption of uptrend. but the most recent one then distinguished itself by a collapse all the way down to a low of 12500 & any upswing such as we are witnessing now, is not as yet inspiring confidence. seems to me that it's a brandnew ballgame & the ball is in the Dow's court. recent moves by the Fed altho expeditious, not entirely reassuring. pretty sure there will be retest of the 200ma (~12800) within three months from now, confirming downtrend.

but that's not the same thing. injecting money is easy, interest rates have much wider-reaching implications. requiring responsible decision-making.

hello Walter. sharing your enthusiam for the TMF indicator, but puzzled as to its construction. mr Twiggs uses the following criteria: True Range High (TRH) is the greater of: High [today] and Closing price [yesterday] True Range Low (TRL) is the lesser of: Low [today] and Closing price [yesterday] which he then calls the AD & incorporates into a formula. but how can one translate the above into MS language? I do believe the formula is not as simple as might appear. you must have solved the problem because you took it one step further, substiting 5 for 21 where applicable. I have done this myself several times, because daytrading is what it's all about! regards ... amory