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M.A
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Posts posted by M.A
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Why such complex diagrams to understand angles?
Angles in Gann Angles r not derived from trigonometery but from graph. Angles measurement is a topic of trignometery but in Gann Angles, 45 degree angle is just to make 1 x 1 relationship understandable and it is not always exact 45 degree angle. It will only be exact 45 degree angle if both X-axis and Y-axis have same distance between units.
Your images r good but these images explain the concept of angles which is of no use in understanding Gann Angles unless u understand the relationship between time vs price.
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From what I've seen so far, binary options trading web sites look not different than gambling sites...then it makes you think "the house always wins"Forgive my ignorance, because I am certainly not well versed in the matter, but isn't simply buying a put or call already binary in nature? You either collect a profit or give up your premium. Profit or nothing.Right?
Ohh Yea.!!!!!!....
Tired of quoting all similar threads. So this post is for all who think binary options or any trading market (except spread betting or others where government says it is gambling) is gambling. Do you think anything falling in the category of "Put/Call" or "Profit/Loss" is gambling??? I agree with all of u at one point that binary options trading websites look similar to gambling websites. I am strongly against the claims made by those websites. Does it make binary options gambling?
All business have their profit/loss accounts. I cannot think of any third thing between profit and loss (dun joke with zero now. plz). Even Gambling business have Profits and Losses and nothing else.
So what makes Gambling different from other businesses? Put/Call is not a definition of gambling.
There can be a very long debate of gambling vs non-gambling businesses and sometimes the line between them is very thin. But there is a way, for us at least, to be sure about what is gambling and what is not.
Our expertise in this field is not to a level where Government and other big economic institutions are. If they do not consider it gambling then why u?
Another thing. Trading is based on analysis. If u r trading without analyzing then U r gambling in this business.
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Usd/Chf is hard to guess at this time with a little bearish sign. But overall, in current scenario, I would prefer to hold at this time and wait for breakout.
I know its reached a high of 1.2451, but I am still pretty bullish on the pair. Moreover, even the USD/CHF is worthwhile to keep an eye on due to the weakening Swiss currency. If the exchange rate were to fall to 0.9290 in the coming week, it would good time to buy the pair.
What makes u think it is bullish? Fundamental analysis or technical analysis?
If it falls below 0.9275, it will be most probably touch next support level.
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At last, eur/usd is out of prison in which it remained for around 2 weeks. This rally took it to 11 month high position. This rally was mainly due to fundamental factors. Some good news from euro zone were the main cause of this strength of eur/usd.
A big news, yesterday, was the loan repayment amount by european banks. This repayment amount is much bigger than what was expected in past forecast. In the past it was expected to be around 84bn which will now be more than 137bn. It shows that financial health of sector is stronger and better than expected.
Recent economic data of Germany shows that eurozone's biggest economy has started to play its role in leading whole region to recover from crisis. Strong growth in IFO has already exceeded expectations and it will, most probably, continue to do so in future.
In my opinion, both of the above news r strong enough to take eur/usd near 1.35 or maybe above this point.
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Japenese Government is trying hard to tackle economic problems. Current week started with yen strengthening against other major currencies.
After release of monetry data, which was not good enough to satisfy investors, yen lost its value. Whereas USD gained value after very good U.S jobless claims report came this morning.
If u look at today's chart, u will have no doubt in USD strength and JPY weakness. Fundamental analysis is strongly favoring bullish trend.
With the test of following indicators, technical analysis is also in favor of bullish trend.
MAs(10,50,100,200)
RSI(14)
MACD(12,26)
CCI(14)
Stoch(9,6)
USD/JPY has already crosses 90 and it is now ready to test resistance zone of 90.40 to 90.50.
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To be fair and complete you should have mentioned something called scaling.This over and over quoted 1:1 relationship is nothing but a hint from Gann,that is 45 degrees in a square with side length 1 is the bisection line of the square.Correct.
1 x 1 itself explains scaling part but many traders wont understand it.
So I am explaining it in detail here.
To use Gann angles Properly scaled chart is necessary. Default forex charts r not usually scaled properly and if u draw a 45 degree or any other gann angle on that graph, it will not make any sense. I emphasized on relationships of time vs price because this is what u will have to see when drawing Gann angles.
So the question is "What is correct scale for Gann Angles???"
You have to first choose a time scale and price scale per grid. For example 1 day per unit for time scale and $1/unit for price scale. Also note that distance of each unit for both time and price should be same. If it is not same then it is hard for u to draw proper line unless u know mathematics rules.
By doing a little search, u can find some useful indicators that can do this job for u.
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Gann angles were developed by WD Gann who is known to be a very successful trader with advance mathematical and analysis skills. Gann angles is an important indicator which is very simple to use once u understand its working. BUT he never used "single" indicator as a full trading system. So you must understand that Gann angles is an indicator, and not a trading system, which can be very helpful if u know how to use it and when to use it.
To make it easier for u to understand, I will divide it into 2 parts.
Images r attached so that u can understand it in a better way
1- Logic behind Gann Angles
- Gann was of the view that market behavior is cyclical. It doesnt mean that exactly same behavior is repeated but it is their nature which repeats. This view is of all traders who use support and resistance levels in one way or other.
- Second major logic behind Gann angles is that only time, price and range are relevant when analyzing market.
Conclusion of both of these points is :- "Market reflects human nature and human nature never changes:rofl:."
2- Gann Angles
These r angles formed from a given point. These angles r formed on a time vs price chart (Trading charts r time vs price).
These angles tell us trend and support/resistance levels. Gann angles consist of a set of 9 angles formed by 9 relationships between time and price.
1 unit of time vs 1 unit of price = 45 degree angle which shows ideal movement. Price moving at 45 degree angle will be following an ideal movement according to Gann.
Bullish angles will be when price rises. For example when 2 units of price rise vs 1 unit of time, it will form 63.75 angle.
Dont sleep plz and dun think that explaining angle is not necessary. It is really important to understand why angles or formed. For example u should know what does a specific degree angle means. If a price is moving at a higher degree it means market is bullish. Similarly if price is moving at lower degree is means market is bearish. Angles represent the strength of bullish or bearish trend.
Ideal angle = 1 x 1 = 45 deg
Bullish angles = 1 x 8 (82.5 deg), 1 x 4 (75 deg), 1 x 3 (71.25 deg), (1 x 2 = 63.75 deg)
Bearish angles = 2 x 1 (26.25 deg), (3 x 1 = 18.75 deg). (4 x 1 = 15 deg), (8 x 1 = 7.5 deg)
How to draw them?
Now here is a little analysis that u have to perform before u draw them. You have to judge low or high point on trading chart from where u can draw these angles.
Isnt it easier to understand? I hope everything is clear upto this point.
I said in the start that it is also useful to identify support and resistance levels. HOW?
Lets say price is moving between 45 and 63.75 angles. It means at this time these two angles r providing support and resistance levels. Any major break would, most probably, take it to next angle (26.25 incase of bearish and 71.25 incase of bullish).
This is all. Dun forget to see images (if u havnt seen them yet).
- Gann was of the view that market behavior is cyclical. It doesnt mean that exactly same behavior is repeated but it is their nature which repeats. This view is of all traders who use support and resistance levels in one way or other.
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Note:- I will try to use simple forex vocab so that everyone can understand it. I hate using complex trading vocab because I remember when I was a novice, I didn't understand a single word written in "guru articles". There was a time, when I used to call Elliott waves idiot waves.
For me, I have learnt a few powerful (at least for me) hedging techniques. These aren't developed or made by me but by learning and practicing, I came to know that these techniques can increase ur potential gains as well reduce ur losses (this is actually an objective of hedging technique).
Lets start with simpler one.
1- Breakout failure.
This hedging strategy is not specifically for binary but can be used in almost all forms of trading. I will discuss it in binary option scenario. Many traders wait for the breakout and as soon as it happens, they purchase an option. Now there is a probability of breakout failure. What if this happens? I am not here to explain breakout strategies so it doesn't really matter which strategy is being used to identify a breakout. Probability of successful breakout can be high or it can be low.
Lets take a look at the "breakout" image. (made by an expert painter). You were expecting bullish trend with a conqueror look on ur face. You might succeed but what if the breakout fails? Do u accept that u lost the trade and the entire option money? Incase of forex or any other market where u have control to limit losses by closing trade early, u can close it. But incase of binary option, u define ur risk before u enter a trade. The reality is u do have control over ur binary options even after u purchase them in the form of hedging. You can limit losses by hedging techniques. Simply buy another option in favor of "breakout failure" (in my example it will be put").
Now u will have two options:- one in favor of call (which is most probably loosing) and another option (after breakout failure) in favor of put (which will most probably win). Maximum loss will be the difference between what u gain and what u loose which is much less than what u were loosing before hedging. If u want numbers to be involved in this hedging game then best way is to try it out. As an example if both options r of $100 and payout is $75 then loss would be $25 (considering u get nothing when u loose) instead of $100 which u were loosing without hedging.
You can use this technique in many other scenarios where u analysis about trend fails. But be cautious and do not fall into "Greed Trap". For example u hedge ur loss with bigger amount considering that breakout failure will continue and "why not gain instead of loosing" So u buy another option with bigger amount (say $200). There can be another breakout failure waiting for this opportunity (breakout really enjoys failing especially when u r novice). Worst Case scenario is both options fail to end in the money. You loose all invested money (if broker offers no payment incase of loss. Some offer 10% to 15% of invested amount incase of loss).
2- Hedging with alternative binary options
This technique is also used to increase ur gains.
Example: You purchase a standard binary option in favor of call because u r expecting the market to move upwards. Assuming ur analysis is correct, u will win and thats all.
Hey!!!!.. it was just an assumption which can be wrong. If it goes wrong, then u need to think of some strategy which can protect ur money and why not pocket a little gains. Experienced traders here will be thinking of 100s of strategies but I am with YOU (poor novice). You might have heard about one touch options. These options pay u upto 500% of ur investment (take a break folks, I can see mouth-watering). Conditions r really strict in case of these options and if u r not good analyst, u will loose most of the time. Think with ur brain that if they r paying upto 500%, it will not be an easy analysis. There r lower payouts too on one touch options with lesser strict conditions and where ur analysis has higher probability of success.
I know at this time most of u have forgotten about "we have bought a standard binary option and we r finding something to hedge it". Now ur analysis leads u to assume that next week, market will move like ......... (whatever is the most speedy thing in the universe). This analysis further leads u to assume that market will touch a certain level at least once in a week. You have already purchased a standard binary option which will only be profitable if the expiry price is above (incase of call) the purchase price. To hedge it and to gain more profit, u buy another one-touch option (coz ur analysis led u to do so).
Worst case scenario is, again, if both options loose. (Scenario 1 in "one touch hedge" image)
In "one touch hedge" image, best case scenario would be scenario 2 which will result in high profits which can offset looses caused by more than 1 trade.
A mixed scenario of one loss and one win can either result in lower loss or a little gain.
Any thoughts and comments r welcome. Critics... dun stay away.
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Only Profit doesn't tell the whole story of success.
Which would u prefer? profit percentage of 100% with drawdown of 30% or profit percentage of 50% with drawdown of 5%.
More return comes with more risk. It doesnt matter if he is a day trader or swing trader or scalper. Usually day traders target around 10% per month which I think is difficult (assuming that drawdown target is under 15%).
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There is no randomness when the market is decisive (forex anyways is all I can commen on as that is the one I have upskilled on.) You can read market structure and even order flow out of the candles. However, that takes many years (4 for me) of observing the candles and a few eureka moments. A bit like riding a bike....a process of long contemplation. It can be done...it just takes lots of work and basically, is not something anyone can teach (candles that is, I can't speak for the other approaches commented on in this thread.)Once you get to this point, you have basically cracked it.
Being profitable means, u r reading market better than loosers. But randomness is something else. In reality there is no randomness but it is not practically possible for any human being to collect all data which moves market. So this lack of information is creating element of randomness.
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Thanks SIUYA, but I think you misunderstand. I understand that I can do it manually, which is what I have done for several years.I want to know if there is software or a web site that will let me set up a cycle of Buy at $XX, Sell at $YY, Buy at $XX, Sell at $YY... When it sells, wait until the price goes back to $XX and buy again. Hold until it hits $YY and sell it, then repeat. If there is no money in the account, I don't want to buy more, even if the price drops. Just recycle the same money.
I am not naive. In my opinion, I am gambling this money. I just want a free or cheap tool to automate these two repeating transactions.
Actually u need some coded software to work on ur platform. Mightymouse is right. Tradestation will let u make this very simple code. Even if u hire a coder, it wont cost u big bucks coz it is just a looping code of a few lines, I guess.
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All derivatives trading is gambling. Spread-betting differs only in the details, in exactly the same way as the details differ between options and futures, cmos and cdos, bonds and swaps, etc etc.With all of the above, it's crucial to understand the details and how they impact upon your chances of success. Sometimes the impact can be minimized. For instance, which would you prefer - 60k profit in futures, or 40k profit in a spreadbetting account? Unless you know a good tax lawyer, it's a no-brainer. So the only question is, can you make 40k as easily spread-betting as you can make 60k trading futures? To answer that you need to know the details of how each one operates.
BlueHorseshoe
It is a long debate though but I dun think "all" derivatives trading falls under the category of gambling. Bottom line to this can be, in my opinion, why govt or economists or specialists in this field do not consider those as gambling? There will be minor differences which is why spread betting income is treated in a different way.
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Most of the times I only hear this advantage of spread betting because it falls under the category of gambling and not investing.
What other advantages do u see in it?
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I am affraid there is no relevance between them...if you want to make ice-cream with a microwave, be my guest :spam:
:rofl:
Correct.
found this site a couple of days ago..if you are trying to build your own EA, you can give it a try...only problem is that you cant use custom indicators...well its free anyway
I have gone through a number of EA builder websites but there r always some limitations. The good part is that novice traders can make simple systems without any developing knowledge.
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mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. :crap::crap::crap::crap::crap:
After reading through 4 pages of this discussion, I am really fooled by randomness of this debate. A simple discussion is crunched, crushed and .......................(out of vocab)...
Take a break buddies.
The original thread was something about randomness. Yes market moves randomly but gives us a few indications which maybe or may not be true. There is an element of randomness in it coz no one can collect and analyze each and every piece of information which moves market in either direction. and thats all:angry::helloooo:
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My 2013 resolution is to be more disciplined.
Your resolutions r valid and, if implemented, will produce better results. If we want to group all of these points under one major head, it will be discipline. Basically if u r disciplined in trading, it will benefit u a lot. Your learning pace will be increased. Your analytical skills will increase. You will be able to control ur emotions.
Traders should analyze their weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannually and annually. Compare ur performance with past periods and see where u lack and where u r strong. Sometimes traders change their trading strategy completely and ignore strengths of that strategy. So traders should concentrate on areas where they r weak.
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Thx for sharing
.Range breakout strategy is sometimes misunderstood by novice traders as something BIG. You have explained strategy and its advantages but I think we should also look at Cons of this strategy. Especially those who want to try this strategy should know negatives of it.
1- Many False Breakouts:- Market never makes (or at least highly unlikely to make) smooth range which moves in predictable high and low. Reality is that market will give multiple false breakouts. Different measures can reduce chances of trading false breakouts but u cannot avoid all of them. It results in lower profit (assuming that u actually make profit when breakout occurs).
2- BIG breakouts misunderstanding:- As I said in start, novice traders shouldn't assume that breakout will be as big as shown in examples. There is low probability of big breakouts.
So for a novice trader this is hard-to-follow strategy because they do not have enough experience to avoid maximum false breakouts which will result in one after another loss.
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Hello Jonathan1000.
I have my doubts on the following actions of Dowtrader7
1- I agree with dowtrader7 that only "text" doesnt make u successful trader. But what I can see so far on his website is unverified statement and claim of success which is "text" to me. Anyone can make such a website with valid entries and exit by doing a little homework on past data.
2- Loss rate is very low. It is possible but doubtful when he is not showing any proof of legitimate trading statement.
3- Of course he is trying to maximize his earnings but why is he selling it so low because for such a system, traders r willing to pay higher cost. (I do not accept "for the sake of humanity and for helping poors" answer)
Above were my doubts BUT followinh two things r in his favor.
1- He is providing one week free trial which means he is sure that u will like his system (But shouldnt ask for phone number (which is doubtful:doh:)
2- If, in trial period, he made successful trades then u might have enough money earned to pay for his monthly subscription.(by looking at performance in the statement given on his site).
Please share ur weekly trial experience with us.
Thankyou
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Hi all,
I am M.Ahmed.
Found this forum through google. I liked the way it is designed.
I am an experienced trader of Forex and binary options. I started Forex trading in 2007 and binary options in the start of 2011. Forex trading results were horrible in the first year. I started to break-even in 2nd year of my trading.
I do not believe in "6-figure in a year" type EAs or systems in Forex. I do not believe in "Holy Grails" in Forex.
With all my experience and my knowledge, I consider forex an investment opportunity where YOU define ur risk and market defines ur return.
I will surely participate here to learn more about trading and to deliver what I have learned from my experience.
$50 in 15 Minutes
in General Discussion
Posted
It is like gambling in forex. I havnt tried it but by looking at website + details from u, it looks like they only give $50 once. Coz how can they provide $50 each time u win when u r not depositing any real money.