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Seeker
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Posts posted by Seeker
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One other thing I noticed from another forum that adds to the usefulness of forums.
I noticed that a thread with very active posters, even though they were posting crap, managed to draw in a lot of other posters. The perceived activity dragged in the herd. They couldn't help themselves.
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Im not aware of the zoo's owner running any scams. Im not sure about the moderators, I suspect that theres at least one whose up to no good. Moderators, advisors, and tame vendors running scams are just the price the owner pays for staying in businessHistorically the zoo had a problem, and they probably still do. Its the nature of trading forums.
They have a vendor infestation of their own making, and they cant solve it
About a year ago for example their new CEO took the decision to stop vendors sending private messages. A couple of weeks after implimentation of this idea I get a series of private messages from TWO of their long standing members, who just happen to be vendors !
So how did that happen ? I though vendors couldnt send PM's
I report one of the messages to their new CEO asking him how did this vendor PM me if vendors cant use the PM facility.
I get the usual bullshit, it was just a technical fault, how emberrassing etc, etc. A one off problem thats now been rectified. Strange that this particular vendor is an author of their book, has written numerous articles for the site, and has won their annual awards several years running, but that was just a coincidence Im sure.
I then alert him to the fact that theres a second long time member and vendor who still despites the zoos attempts to remove the PM facility can also quite amazingly still send me PM's too (again a very active contributor). We go through the same shinnanagins, teh CEO claims that its a million to one chance that I was able to find 2 example, its a technical fault, how emberassing etc etc
I then alert him to the third example of a vendor PM, hahahahaha :rofl:
meanwhile Im getting PMs from a whole bunch of his favourite vendors who think the whole thing is hillarious.
A few months later, I sign up as a new member, declaring the fact that Im a vendor, and guess what, Im immediately able to send PMs to whoever I like from that account. Meanwhile staff and moderators are telling everyone what a great job theyve done by withdrawing the PM facility
Are they really that incompetant (no they are not)
Theres hardly a day goes by now without a vendor openly asking other vendors (disguised as punters) from sending a PM for more infor about methods, products etc
The truth is, vendors are the only reason the site exists, without vendors, there is no forum. When the vendors realise that the punters left 2 years ago and that theyre part of a massive circle jerk attempting to sell crap to themseleves they'll be off too, and then thankfully someone might pull the plug and put them out of their misery
Are all trading educators running scams ? well thats a topic for another thread I guess
If you accept that trading can't really be taught or handed over to someone via posts or words, and that the main features of successful trading have been disseminated over time by the market wizards and others. Then all that is left is for one to spend time on it themselves, develop their own understanding and carve out their own niche. If they already have carved it, then all that is left is to repeat truths that are known for a 100 years to the new generation, discuss any differences in the current cycle and shoot the breeze with others. Trading forums provide an option for this for both the newcomer and the experienced.
So they provide an option for the successful to get rid of some of their boredom and feel like they are giving back, and for the newbies to get rid of some of their frustration at losing, and find comfort in the herd. That is why they work, in an industry where you would think a trading forum can't possibly work because it is all competitive and everybody's interest should be in others losing. Amazingly there are a few who do want to help. Is it down to some underlying guilt at knowing that they are taking the money of others on a daily or weekly basis?
In these ways, trading forums all offer something 'useful'. Maybe not so useful in developing an edge, but useful for the psyche. Unfortunately, as with nature, parasites develop, who see the whole thing as prey of which they can suck blood from. They may be your common garden vendor or may be even the site owners and admin. These become an irritant to the other species, but if nature finds mosquitos and leeches necessary, then they must be needed in the system somehow. Perhaps someone can enlighten us as to why they are necessary.
The worst site for this parasitic infestation seems to be Forex Factory (and I don't think that's the one you are referring to as the zoo). Jacko was vouched for by all the gurus over there. James16 vouched for him too, and is also vouched for by dozens of others there, but he probably can't trade either, and was outed by one of his own members (although the cover-up was quick). There are at least half a dozen off shoots of James16 and I'm sure the list could go on. Merlin seemed to disappear prior to all the scandal. Seems like these people are working together.
From what I've seen, there are lots of gurus and vendors with cherry picked charts on all of these sites. Very few have held up to my own testing - that is testing whether what they say is true and whether they can speak clearly rather than talk in generalities.
DBPhoenix was one of those from here that did stand up to testing. There are two or three other posters here that also have stood up to testing.
Here is something for the new trader: If you can't find an edge, don't worry too much, unleveraged buy and hold for indices or a basket of well chosen stocks is profitable if you can afford to wait. Add a bit of timing to it, and you've got something good. Of course there are better ways to trade, but if one is stuck in the myth that nothing works, and hasn't found anything good yet, well there you go.
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Which Book
in Books
Which book are you reading lately?For leisure, I'm reading the Game of Thrones series.
For trading, I'm reading the Art of War - Sun Tzu (Sunzi)
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Would you trade such a system if it experienced significant drawdowns ?I probably wouldn't , even if it averaged 2 points a day
I've got a few profitable ideas that I developed and won't trade based on drawdown, or variance in returns. It's not all about profit at any cost.
Depends.
Now, if you have 20 strategies which work, then you can compare expectancy and variance, and then you may decide it's not worth trading the 2 point a day ES strategy as you have better.
However, if you have no strategies which work, except this 2 point a day strat, then that's all you got that's profitable. So yes I would trade it in those circumstances while I looked for something better, or developed the strat further. So perhaps I misread renvik's post, seemed to me he was saying he just had loads of strategies which didn't work and this one strategy which did but he didn't consider good enough and nothing else. So apologies if I read your post wrong renvik, and hope you're trading an even better strategy.
I think I've just been reading too many false claims over the years, with people talking about 70% win rates and winners twice as large as losers, or 80% winners and 1:1 risk reward etc (read both only the other day). A 2 point a day edge on the ES seems a lot in my opinion. In my experience a lot of edges (mechanical ones at least) are small and a lot closer to the 50% for a 1:1 risk reward or closer to 33% for a 1:2 risk reward than most people seem willing to admit on public forums.
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No, my guess is not wrong. Anyone who can develop a strategy that makes 2 points a day net average on ES, knows that is more than enough and would appreiate it and trade it and not look for other things.
One can easily get filled 100 contracts on the ES, which corresponds to $5000 per point, which for a 2 point a day strategy corresponds to $10,000 a day or $50,000 a week average.
And yet here we have you saying you're not interested in $50,000 a week salary and you'll look for something else.
What a load of nonsense.
You DON'T have a strategy that makes 2 points a day on the ES. What you perhaps have is some curve fit strategy that doesn't work and loses money per day on average.
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Have written several strategies which made thousands of $$ in backtest but failed in forward testing, the best some of them did was make 2 ES points per day which was not a worth it for me - that is the bottom line (having examined sharpe ratio, draw down, etc.).I do look at the largest losing trade (while not using a stop loss) to gauge the efficacy
of the strategy logic.
2 ES points per day is plenty. If you have something like that, then you should trade it. I would guess that you don't have a strategy that returns 2 ES points a day, otherwise you would be trading it and making a lot of money.
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That's clear and simple but I'm curious here if this is the only thing you need to know before the strategy can go live?There are quite a few metrics of interest, I just suggested a simplistic one, tha captures a lot for comparing two systems.
You could look into Sharpe ratio, drawdown etc.
It is obviously necessary to forward test the strategy.
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I would go with expectancy multiplied by average number of trades per day.
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Waste of time. I won't bother in future
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2% probably seems conservative if you're in this as a get rich quick scheme or have gambling mentality. You mention a 30 point loss, which would be 1500.
Can you imagine a casino, which has an edge in all their games, risking 30% of their entire capital on one bet? That casino would soon go out of business. What about a hedge fund or a bank?
So you have to decide if you want to run your trading as a business, and slowly accumulate wealth, or if you want to gamble and have some ups and downs before you lose the lot.
$5000 is not HUGE capital. If you don't have the capital, you shouldn't trade. Work and build up your stake and learn on demo so that when you do have a stake you can earn with it.
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This is a quote from the previous post"There was for some time a guy in Carters and Huberts team, who made winners most of the time (averaging down...etc) for nearly a year ! But than lost all this profit in one day (break-even for the year)!!! However the money his students paid for this year he kept !"
The gentleman's name was if I remember correctly, Robert Hoffman, and his website was called "Power Charts"......apologies if I have identified him inaccurately....
So this was a person who had a "room" and claimed to have over 300 paying customers who presumably followed his activities trading the markets.....again if I remember correctly he also claimed to have NEVER had a losing trade over a period of three (3) years........
The problem was that Mr. Hoffman was using a variation of the technique called "martingale"...and in this version, (again as I recall) when he would have a drawdown on a trade, he would switch to the next higher time frame and continue the trade....(I'm sure this is an oversimplification) and in some instances this seems to have worked out.....however one day....he got into a trade that DIDN'T....."work out" to his advantage....in fact it kept on going against him, so much so that ultimately he lost a LOT OF MONEY....I don't remember exactly how much but I think it was hundreds of thousands of dollars.....and yes shortly thereafter, I remember hearing of a seminar on how to handle the stress of losing money.....lol
For those interested, by all means do your own research because I am sure some of the details are incorrect....
Best Regards
Steve
Steve from what I remember, Hoffman started with a one lot, and ended up averaging down to a loss of over 300k in a day. This among other things demonstrated that Hoffman is clearly a failed trader, and yet he's still going as a vendor, charging naive folks for poor trade calls. Shameless isn't it? Why do they still sign up? Mystery to me. There's better information here - and better traders - for free.
My opinion is that both Hubert Senters and John Carter can't trade either, but I'm sure they make good money from the punters. Repackaged a bunch of indicators and sell them along with a fancy name, a few videos and a service and they've got a business.
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As I see it, any vanilla option position, long/short some calls/puts is conceptually equivalent to a position in the underlying asset. Non-vanilla options are a separate issue.
This is clear since, the entire point of delta hedging is to eliminate the risk of changes in the value of the option by investing in the underlying to make yourself delta-neutral. The fact that banks can (and do) do this indicates the equivalence.
The reason I point out the equivalence, is because some may think you are getting something different, or new, that couldn't be achieved by investing in the underlying. Typically (though not always) you will be creating a position that you could equally do for less transaction costs, by just investing in the underlying (i.e. no options needed at all). It's often a little bit like going long and short the same instrument and paying twice the spread you need to.
That said, options have their own market, and markets can get out of line. But you should be aware that you could create (funds permitting) the same position via the underlying, and so there really is no reason to get into vanilla options unless for cost reasons, because the market is out of line, or because you don't have the funds to achieve the respective position in the underlying. The last of these is probably not a valid reason either, but I state it anyway, the second will be capitalised on by algos before you can, and the first is unlikely since trading options is usually quite expensive, and more so than trading the underlying.
I look forward to other traders pointing out why one would wish to trade options rather than take an equivalent position in the underlying.
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My biggest loss was time. Time spent looking at the wrong things, time spent trading without a plan or without real understanding of what was important, time wasted on indicators, etc. then time unlearning all the nonsense I had picked up.
The money comes back with interest, but you can't ever get that time back.
MaxPastukhov reacted to this -
Where is the entry? The close of the bar the arrow points to? The open of that bar?
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Thanks Humbled. So you are making money.
You doubt the strategy, the entry, no confidence in it etc. Yet you're profitable.
And that despite not having much experience with the method, and still working on the rules and your understanding.
My suggestion is, give it time. Keep thinking about how to improve. Be patient and work hard. Dont' expect every trade or every day or even every week to be a winner.
Don't start looking for secret sauce, or changing the basics principles of what you have been given by Thales.
Understand that the secret sauce is experience, and it can't be rushed. But that it can be slowed down by looking at the wrong things and approaching it in the wrong way. You have been given the right approach.
Also if I may, stop putting problems for yourself where there aren't any. You worry about the entry, but the entry is usually fine. You worry about the method, but you're profitable and only just started trading this way! You worry about risk reward but I think I saw a +16 point winner in this journal, and your biggest loss was about 4 or 5 points.
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humbled, what were the overall trading stats for this thread? P&L, win%, average win, average loss...I have the impression that the results are not that bad
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If one trades live without a thoroughly-tested and consistently profitable trading plan, he'd probably get a lot more enjoyment out of his trading funds by withdrawing them all and setting them on fire.Not true at all!
He could go the bar or the strip club. burning is such a waste
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All of the answers below deserve more detail, but you've asked a lot of questions.
1. If you have a lot of time, study economics and get some good books on that. If you don't have the time go to wikipedia, and use the referenced articles
3. I use ninjatrader, and my broker's data to populate the charts, and I also have another set of charts from another broker. There are lots of good charting programs, but google finance is not one.
4. Get some good charts.
5. There are no cheat sheets in this business except for: don't fight the trend, cut your losses, run your winners.
6. Get a broker. Many have free trials and demo accounts.
7. Yes you have currency exposure. It depends on how you're trading. If you're going to trade some stocks and close out your position same day, your currency exposure is not that great. If you're looking into being a long term trader, then you can look into ways to hedge off this risk. There's always risk though.
9. Forex Factory has a nice calendar for economic announcements. If you're trading futures, there are several futures calendars looking at expiry dates etc - go the exchange's site.
10. How options are handled on expiry depends on who your broker is and what your intention is. If you are a beginner, stay away from options until you have a much deeper understanding of them.
Good luck on your target of 100% every 6 months. You may wish to do more research into successful traders and their returns and money management.
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Seeker ,Some good points here. Let me address them
My plan as Thales directed so far was to look for a Trader Vice 123 or 2b pattern VERY close to a key level. I was allowed to use 5 minute charts until we got close. I then was told to zoom in and take my entry on a one minute time frame. I have applied this approach verbatim or at least as close as I could.
As I experienced these trades I was given examples of when Thales cut them short, when he allowed the trade to work and when he saw things that suggested that a loss should not be taken. I have done my best to attempt to react like that but its not learned yet.
Thales suggested that I read DB's work and start to work that in. I am learning that as well right now.
What you are seeing is the frustration of me trying to execute a pattern that occurs all around these key levels. It occurs several times in both direction at one of these levels. Without the filter to define which ones to omit and which ones to take, I feel like a pin cushion. I am sure as I understand more of what Thales has wanted me to learn I will find many of these attempts filtered.
I am watching 2 min and other time frames trying to read volume and observe. On Thales own suggestion he said I could observe volume but he also mentioned he does not use it. As he shares more I can understand how to control the abundance of signals and decides on direction. In the absence, while Thales is away I am doing the observing he mentioned
As for the 1 minute comment. I admit it is very fast and I find many false signals but I have followed the plan. The poor exit is a mixture of my attempts to read what Thales meant from previous posts. Thales has given me many pieces of the puzzle but I am struggling to put them together.
I must admit I studied Thales history and the trading of his daughter who started at 9 years old and has done very well. I noticed many comments that she managed trades with a stop or a target and did not get in the way of the trade but I have not arrived at that point yet. I have attempted to adjust based on Thales responses. He must have a reason for teaching me this way.
Maybe the addition of Supply and Demand lines from DB's work will add to the setup. Maybe I will be more confused. I can't say yet.
Seeker if I had my druthers, of course I would ask for exact directions. Why. How. A totally transparent view but clearly Thales has shared in a process that he feels will help me.
I can tell you at this point something is missing as I fumble around each key level switching back and forth in a rush to read what the market is saying. Maybe after some clarity is added my frustration level will drop.
Humbled
PS. I actually think I have done a pretty good interpreting what has been said if you read all of the directions I have been given but I have simply shared the whole experience including the pressure of low accuracy and lower reward trading.
Humbled, I think you have done well, and said so. I am posing questions because it seemed like you were giving up on the approach already. Jumping from one thing to another because of short term poor performance is one of the things that makes trading well take so long.
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Enigmatics,I could not agree with you more (Again). I did not select the time frame, I want to be a good student so I do as I am told but I can tell you the 1 minute has not served me well so far.
I am reviewing the POC and ideas you have presented as I know the current method is not working. I will be soaking up as much as I can in review of the charts you have posted.
Humbled (beyond belief)
Just some questions for you to think about, and you don't need to answer.
You previously posted that you believed you needed to become consistent. How do you expect to trade consistently if you are not consistent in your method? I observe you are switching between 1 minute and 2 minute bar intervals, and one trade you have stops in a defined place but then another trade you are moving them/exiting because you have no belief in the system, and now you're almost ready to throw the idea away because you don't believe it's working for you (at least not on 1 minute bar interval)?
Is this number of trades really enough to convince you that it's not working? Especially given that you're only learning it...haven't really sorted out your exits...and are breaking the rules.
Is changing approach every time you hit a rough patch the route to consistency?
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I'm not looking to get started.The link only points out some of the false claims. I could pick apart some of the points made there if I wanted to kill some time.
BTW both fundamental and technical studies are full of false claims as well.
Science itself has had many things once thought to be true that are no longer or were outright exaggerations.
Fibs are just numbers after all but as I think I have posted previously numerous times on TL a Dow chart from the 1920's showing their effectiveness long before the crowd "discovered" them.
And others criticize them.
You could go back to a 1920's chart of the DOW and say buy and hold is pretty effective too.
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I might have exited at this area on that trade I missed based on this time of day. Would love advice if I would have been best moving stop up and just holding for next resistance if we close near the high today.I think Thales is doing an excellent job guiding you, so I won't interfere in that. But it is worth saying that you're doing well, and you should be encouraged. Very nice journal.
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It is also good to Stick a note on your computer that will remind you to take small losses often and quickly - don't wait for the big losses.That would be breaking buffett's rule 1 though wouldn't it
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So long as you got my sarcasm
I was watching some woman on TV who had xxx operations for plastic surgery and booked herself into a rehab clinic, and it was telling that even though she now knows she had a problem, she realises it was her own doing etc....she still claimed that she should have been advised she should seek counselling......que lawyers.....and that the surgeons where partially to blame. Plastic surgery addict Alicia Duvall shows scars after op to remove implants | The Sun |Showbiz
:doh: - Where do you draw the line
I do believe the government has a role, because quite frankly humans have a tendency to not only be self destructive but also exploitative and selfish.....but that and the role of government is a whole other issue!
But i guess if the govt does not do it, we will find other ways of doing it - local militias, lawyers, evolution and death....but yes its largely a cost benefit analysis and the governments seems to pander to the protect us too much from stupidity crowd.
I understand where you're coming from, but I'm more than a little wary of the government having any more power than it already does, or attempting to 'protect us'. I do agree with Steve on being responsible for oneself and those who depend on us.
If anything in my view Government should be scaled down dramatically and with less power over the individual.
To Taper or Not To Taper?
in Market News & Analysis
Posted
I think they've already begun to taper, they just haven't announced it. There was no option to vote that, so I went for yes, 10 billion.