PYenner

MBT4 platform, standard in-chart indicator.

Monday morning, BS morning. Wonder if anyone took a trade. Been watching the volumes in PY, around 10 lots/min and the price has gone nowhere all morning and it starts to look so darn fake. Like a bank is trading with itself to make it look like there is keen market interest when there isn't, or maybe to conceal the volume movements that go with a push. It looks like the charges a bank has to pay on trading a lot must be zero for them to turnover $1M/min just for show. Hell, if we have no pip margins like them, we could scalp the hell out of them, which kinda tells you what they are doing to us. 1500 gmt I think, got excited, looked like a push, check the volume, fake. Man I'm getting cynical or paranoid or something. When?

So its us against the trading robot in the basement of the RSB (or RBS?) in London? Human v's terminator, year 20 and counting...

Thanks MK To me that seems more like slipping the price up rather than trading the price up. Not what I first expected in a "trading" system that is "driven by supply and demand". We get to trade only at the "market" price, banks get to trade either side of the "market" price. Their thinking and tactics have to be very different from ours, it would be interesting to see all the dirty tricks they use as they compete against each other. The view and the trading system we are given is very artificial and differs from the real underlying machanism, fool's paradise? I suspect there is little real competition left between the banks. My suspicion is that the Reserve Bank of Scotland (RSB or RBS?) has been the only real market mover for years, a monopoly trader fixing prices at its pleasure. But the surveys are years out of date, wonder why? Cynics United

Quote- After a while I visualize that I can be self-employed trading. But I realized that if I truly want to get my edge on the markets, the best I can do is to run stats , back and forth in order to look what system/strategy will be more consistent. After two years, I finally found what I was looking for. Comment- Well said, I would call this "letting the market speak to you". The market is the reality, what people say is mostly just guesses and old wives tales, myth and fairy tales. Listen to what they say but judge their words against what the market does. It is the market you need to study and understand, once you have an understanding then you have a means to trade safely and profitably. As long as you rely on just other peoples words you are at risk, risk is not knowing what either you or the market are doing. Your thinking needs to be ahead of the market, waiting for it to come to you. Quote- You can buy all the books, read all articles , even buy expensive seminars etc, but ultimately trading comes down to grabbing your own edge, your own unique perspective on the market, and nobody else's. Very much like a fingerprint. I mean, of course is good to read stuff about successful traders, but just in the light of shaping your system, which as I said it's your edge, your little baby. Comment- Your trading strategy should aim at minimizing risk and guesswork. You must work out your own "lever", a reasoned out thing you can rely on, facts not words or myths. No one else can reason it out for you and give it to you, you must reason it out for yourself if you are to trade safely and profitably. In forex, the prices are the facts, treat them like a science in order to take the gamble out of trading. That is my aim, my "fingerprint". It is the banks that move the prices in forex, they are actually not just one step ahead of your thinking, they are permanently about 12 steps ahead of your thinking. They win by staying ahead of your thinking, to win do you have to get ahead of their thinking? You have to get ahead of some stage of their thinking, but you would have to be a mind reader to outwit them completely. A first step is to start thinking like your enemy, banks trade in unleveraged lots, they can move the price of a pair 3,500 pips in a year. How do they do that while keeping a minimum of their own money in the market at any time? How many lots must be traded to move the price one pip? How many currencies are the banks using to move the prices in the pair I am trading? What other charts must move the same way as my chart when they use Euro based accounts, USD accounts, CHF accounts? How many must move the opposite way? The way pair prices work with and against each other gives you huge insights into what and how the banks have to do when they want to move prices in your pair. The answers are all recorded in the charts waiting for you to seek them out. You can treat it as a science, then you have facts, not guesses. It is what you understand that gives you reliable things you can trade on, it is what you don't understand that puts you at risk, guesses. You must use your own brain to keep from shooting yourself in the wallet. Asking questions like these has been paying off for me but I have a long way to go yet. There is a lot to learn but learn from the charts, the mechanics by which prices are moved, they are fact, everything else is less than fact and should be viewed with suspicion.

Yes, buy only the bigger dips and get out a bit early. re 1992 record high The Euro is now in tow and looks to have found its slot in the market. The balast of the Euro should lessen extremes in Cable. I think the last year is as far back as we can look, thanks to the Euro. Last year prices hung around the high longer than I like and look like they didn't know which way to go. If we get that this year, scalping the PY dips might be the main option, while looking for a way to predict GBPUSD swings without committing financial suicide. Some of the Swiss pairs might be an easier target than GBPUSD prediction but the range is smaller. CHFJPY and GBPCHF follow or "trade in" PY but not in EU. USDCHF and EURCHF follow or "trade in" EU but not in PY. GBPUSD follows or "trades in" both PY and EU which makes it damn tricky to predict. PY and EU are both headed up a notch together, which is one time you can "rely" on GBPUSD to make a good upswing, but it is less common. What you get is like the last two days, half way there and the banks start playing 100 pip tennis with the PY price instead of firing off GBPUSD as the final stage in trading both PY and EU up together. Makes it difficult to pick an entry price or time, what you get is days of swaps and drawdown if you get it mistimed. Big prize, big risk, sucker trap if you don't have a well thought out plan. --------------- But if you eat like an elephant and poop like a bird aren't you gunna... explode?!

Most of the Major pairs have topped last years highs. Expecting this coming week to complete the rise that started last week. For now the only indication is upwards, but as the man says, when will it become a fakeout? The market is driven by confidence, but misplaced confidence is how you lose. Speculators are said to be losing $12M/day??? So the banks have every good reason to flag one direction then send the price the other way. My best quess is that prices will stay high and threaten or promise to go either way, the good cop/bad cop tactic that turns the sucker into putty. Expect your confidence to be tested with drawdown swings. The stakes seem higher than usual to me, ugly stuff coming. Not a good time to be overtrading or low on equity.

People are getting hurt in PY too. The longer term rise I was trading got to 70% ok but then they got ugly. 50-100 pip backswings and recovery for a couple of days. My trade got swaps but no progress, didn't have enough equity to trade the recoveries as well so missed out on those. There are good rises coming in PY and GBPUSD but they are delaying it and making so much drawdown mischief it has got me a bit scared about buying back in after the weekend.

And I doubled up after telling you it was not a good idea to double up. Another day tomorrow.

Good on ya Don Hope it works for you. If your success rate on sells has teasted out as good as the buys then you should be ok. GBPUSD is a good choice. FWIW I'm expecting it to go down a bit then set a new high today and stay up longer than usual. Looks like PU and EU will go up together, time will tell. Gee the waiting can drive ya nuts. Gotta go.

PS Expect some smaller faster swings from GBPUSD in the near future and compare them to swings in PY and EU. The gameplan has changed significantly in the last 6 months. Expect more volatility from EU as PY and EU get swung in opposite directions and sometimes in the same direction just to keep you confused. GBPUSD will stay up longer when PY and EU both go up together. Oh yeh, taking a buy at the top of the market needs to be done with caution.

Hi Don No one seems to be warning you and I don't know what you know or don't know so I will flap my lips just in case you don't know... GBPUSD is one of the main source currency pairs for trading in GBPJPY and EURUSD, it has some good swings as a result because it is being used to drive up PY or EU or both. Now GBPUSD, GBPJPY and EURUSD, in fact most pairs, hit the top of the market in late April and are still at near record highs and may well be for a month. It is a difficult time for trading simply because it is unusual. Many pairs, like EURJPY have been rising steadily for six years so any backtesting you have done may only apply to rising markets, it may be a disaster for topping or falling markets. The last market top was about Jan or Feb 2006 and this one is different. Either backtest over that time period and in the subsequent down period or consider keeping your money in your pocket and just record how your trading system will cope with a falling market. Apologies for being a doom merchant but you know how forex likes to bite people. Any trading system or robot is essentially dumn, it doesn't know rising from falling or spring from winter, only a human can make the judgement to apply caution when things are not normal. At least don't overtrade by doubling up, its a short road to pain. The slower way is the safer way. Happy Hunting but remember you may also become the prey. The old PYenner