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Greg Capra

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  1. Let’s see if we can find some common area of understanding here by showing you the same concept from the original post with a different stock within a sideways daily trend. The intra-day trends will be essentially the same as the stock (HD) that was in a daily uptrend from the first post. First, Arvo your comment that The Trend is your Friend is a bucket shop cliché for beginners suggest that you are that, a beginner. No matter what your or anyone’s style of trading is - a trend is traded. That trend can last seconds, minutes, hours or even years. Where “you” want to put “your” focus is up to you. How one gets on board that trend is another discussion. A counter-trend trade setup that we refer to at Pristine is a Climactic Buy Setup (CBS). This is when a downward move accelerates lower and is ready to reverse higher based on criteria used. This counter-trend does become an uptrend in some lower time frame. Meaning, as the turn starts (CBS), in the higher time frame, a lower time frame has to change trend. The CBS can be on the daily time frame were it never reverses that trend and the 60-Min. and/or 5-Min. can turn up. Make sense? The understanding of how to use the alignment of multiple time frames or lack thereof is lesson everyone needs to learn. Then decide how to incorporate that into your trading plan. We can do it differently and both make money. DbPhoenix, I understand what you mean when you say “it is far better off looking among issues that are in trouble.” I am doing exactly that; however, you want to view that from a different time frame rather than what I am showing. I am picking a stock (could be anything) at a point in time when trouble is starting on the daily time frame and then waiting for confirmation on the 60-Min. I assume that you rather have a stock that trouble as started in a time frame of your choice; a higher one. That’s fine of course. I am doing the same thing at a point where your higher time frame is started to correct (minor trouble, but isn’t likely to change the trend (bigger trouble) in that time frame. Assuming you are using the daily and waiting for “trouble” there to short. Your same argument can be made by another by saying, why are you doing that? The weekly and/or monthly time frames are in strong uptrend. Logic said it in another way, “Specifically define what the term trend means to You. Getting back to my original post on trends and using moving averages as a visual aid and guide. The first post clearly showed the break of the trend on the 60-Min. time frame and followed that on the 5-Min. One moving average was used to know what the direction of prices were on the 60-Min. when only viewing the 5-Min. The 240MA on the 5-Min. is the same as a 20-MA on the 60-Min. This does not make the MAs irrelevant. It uses them as a tool to reduce the information being viewed (only one chart). I also talked about how to define a trend using the only objective way of doing that - with swing highs and lows. Or want is also referred to as pivot highs and lows. These pivots can form in different ways, but I said that a pivot high requires at least 2 lower high bars to the left and right of a pivot bar and at least 2 higher low bars to the left and right of a pivot low bar. The trend of these pivots IS what makes a trend. That is black and white. If we have a trend of higher pivot highs and higher pivot lows, the break of a pivot low that preceded a higher pivot high, breaks that trend of HHs and HLs. That is also black and white. Meaning, it cannot be interpreted any other way no matter how you look at a chart. And, as I previously said. The break of that definition of a trend break will violate a trend line Every Time, so no need to draw lines. If you like to draw them go ahead, but now you will know when a trend line break is meaningless or not. Based on pivots, and as I said they can and do form in various ways, I wrote code that defines those pivots and the trend of them. The trend of those price pivots or the change of trend of those pivots will color the moving average of choosing as to whether the trend is bullish, neutral or bearish. With that in mind, let’s look at a stock (AMZN) in a sideways trend on the daily time frame and when “trouble” or “opportunity” was at hand on the 60-Min time frame. Either is personal to your bias of course. In the above, Amazon (AMZN) was in a sideways daily trend. What is common to AMZN here and HD that I used for the original post is that both were at short-term turning points. HD had been moving up for over a week and momentum was slowing. AMZN moved up for about a week also and was turning. With both, the bias was that they were going to experience an increase in selling or supply was going to overcome the recent demand. We cannot know that a trend break will definitely happen, so I wait for that trend break on the 60-Min. time frame. Once the break of a downward trend happens, it’s anticipated it will result in a higher low (HL) forming. A break of an uptrend should result in a lower high (LH) forming. After a break on the 60-Min. that is aligned with what is occurring on the daily we have a bias to trade confirming setups on the 60-Min. or move lower and trade that bias on the 5-Min. Placing a 240-MA on the 5-Min. will show us the trend on the 60-Min. as explained. If I am scanning a list of symbols using a 5-Min. chart with these two moving averages I know the trend on both the 60-Min. and the 5-Min. Let’s look at the 5-Min. On the above 5-Min. chart, I have marked the LH area from the 60-Min. chart. That was the earliest entry based on the trend break on the 60-Min. Remember that a break of an uptrend does not change the trend to down. It only means that the trend is no longer up. However, a LH can be traded short in anticipation of the trend turning down. Once prices gapped lower, it established the LH on the 60-Min. and downtrend on the 5-Min. Notice that both moving averages are now red. At this point, find “your” entry points based on “your” trading plan or setups. I marked the breakdown, the larger M-top that was the PSS on the 60-Min. and the smaller M-Top that formed at Minor Resistance (mR) as entries. As prices neared the support that can be seen on the daily time frame the odds of stabilization, choppy price action or a reversal back up increases. I hope this third expanded explanation with confirming charts helps clear the point of view I made in the original post. Lastly, it’s understandable that some on forums feel threated by comments of trading method that is not the same as theirs. Especially, those that have put a lot of time studying that method and spent money learning it. If what you read makes you question that method, don’t read these forums. But realize that there many ways to trade and I have presented one that does work. If you like the idea try it, if not don’t. It’s simply here for those interested in learning others points of view in search of one that they can make their own. Sharing ideas and trading methods is what these forums are for. It’s possible that my first post did not explain my views clear enough. If so, ask questions and I am glad to expand on my point of view. All the best, Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  2. Trends exist in many time frames. To require that the trend in every time frame be in agreement before trading while makes sense in theory. This complete agreement of all time frames rarely exists, and it does not have to for high odds trading opportunities. For example, does an intra-day trader taking entries from a 5-minute time frame need to concern themselves with the weekly or monthly time frame? No of course not. That 5-minute trader’s goal or target exit might take place over a period of 20-minutes or a few hours. The scalping level II trader reading time & sales, should they consider the 60-minute trend? NO. DbPhoenix misses this point completely by saying I am trying to short a stock that has been in an uptrend since August 11th. II assume he is talking about the daily time frame. The monthly has been in an uptrend for that stock shown for years. However, it doesn't matter as it relates to the charts/time frames and concepts I posted. It does not matter….. A pullback on the daily uptrend that the swing trader is patiently waiting through over several days to some area of support to buy turned the 60-minute trend lower as prices reversed. Odds are that stock will not stop moving lower until it reaches that price support. Short-term, the odds are that the stock is going lower. Why can’t the intra-day trader take advantage of that over say 15-to 30-minutes? Of course they can and do it all the time. Do you think there were traders shorting the S&Ps yesterday (4-15) because they were trending lower on the 60-minute and 5-minute time frames? Or did they say, oh no; I cannot short the S&Ps because that would be a counter-trend trade on the daily and weekly time frames. You know the answer to that and you should see my point made in the original post. On defining the actual trend I said “The definition of an uptrend is higher pivot highs and higher pivot lows. A downtrend, lower pivot highs and lower pivot lows. If a prior pivot low in an uptrend is violated the trend is no longer up since the definition of an uptrend no longer exists and vice-versa for a downtrend.” Can it get any simpler than that? The break of a trend the way I explained it occurring is the only way that actually violates or breaks the trend. The break of a trend line is often meaningless and creates a belief about a trend break that is totally wrong. Also, the break of a trend the way I explained it will violate a trend line every time, so why draw pointless lines on the chart? If you would like to watch a recording I did for Traders Planet that details this concept of trend analysis - you can at this link Where is the Market Going? Current Market Analysis by Greg Capra I also said “I am going to use a 20-period moving average as a "visual aid" to speed up the analysis here. I did not say that the 20-period moving average defines the trend. As a visual aid, the 20-MA is a simple tool that speeds up the scanning process. We are looking for “pictures” of opportunity as defined in a trading plan. Once you find that picture further detailed analysis can be done. My prior post was a method of getting you to that point with two confirming time frames. Yes there is more to know before pressing the button. This is what I think you wanted to know Ingot. I’ll write about that another time and post it. I hope this post helps. Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  3. Originally Posted by thalestrader » Greg Capra, Pristine, and Oscar Velez - that is all you need to know to run the other way. If any trader, new or otherwise, is out there looking for the holy grail in the form of trader education, Pristine is the last place you should look. Do your due diligence, search the trading forums, and do not allow you and your money to be parted by these dudes! Best Wishes, Thales Thalestrader, First, let me correct you on my X-partner’s name. It’s Oliver Velez, not Oscar. There are those and I assume that you are one of them that don’t like Oliver. That’s okay; you’re entitled to your opinion. Some didn’t care for him because they felt he was too much of a salesman. There are salesmen in every field and many that cannot succeed as well as those selling often dislike that salesperson. If Oliver rubs you the wrong way, I think you know where to find him and can tell him. If not e-mail me. As someone posting at this site, I assume that you are looking for education in some form and have tried to find the Holy Grail of education about the markets yourself, as most have at the start. I was not different. I studied and used many indicators. I wrote my own and tried many trading styles. Everyone or most everyone goes through that process. Most then realize there is no such thing as the perfect trading system or style of trading. In time, they settle on a trading plan based on a method of trading that they have tested or traded for a period of time. Or they give up. Now, if you have taken Pristine courses and were dissatisfied with them, I would like to hear from you about that. We have never had anyone in 18-years complain and ask for a refund. That does not mean everyone that takes a Pristine course makes money. As I believe you know, someone can make money with the same method another cannot make money with. I doubt I need to tell you why. Thales, if you have not taken a course with us your opinion is baseless. Regardless, why you would try to bad-mouth me? Have you ever met me? Have I or Pristine not delivered something promised to you? I have personally traded live with real money at many traders’ expos and won most of those trading events with the same trading method taught in our courses. Not many that teach are willing to do that as you know. What Pristine teaches is traded every trading day in our trading rooms for anyone to see in real-time. Most days are winners, but not all. I don’t know if you are one, but it’s not uncommon for competitors to hind behind fake names and make such posts. Thales, if you are not and for whatever reason you hold a dislike for me or Pristine, I hope my reply helps give you some insights that you didn’t have before All the best, Greg Capra greg@pristine.com President and CEO Pristine
  4. While I have a bias based on what the charts are telling me, I and all that follow the Pristine Style wait for a reversal that is in alignment with that bias. If the ES and NQ continue to move higher without a bearish reversal then no shorting will be done. We will stick with the intra-day uptrend. That being said, the odds are increasing that selling will increase in this area and we will see if those sellers can take control. Here is an updated chart of what the option trader have done over the last few days. There actions suggest the markets are less likely to make much more headway higher. Regards, Greg Capra
  5. Hi Negotiator, Honestly, I didn’t think that ES would get as high as it has been able to, so it may not move to the lower levels I originally thought. However, in the next day or two short-sellers are going to start putting on positions. As you can see from the chart I posted this area has been rejected twice. I’ve market the Topping Tail (TT) candles. Should the recent low that formed last week give way, prices will go lower. The 30-min. intra-day time frame (not shown here) is still in an uptrend, so I will wait to see what tomorrow brings before considering shorts. The NQs have clearly shown relative weakness and it is right in the area where a reversal and move lower typically sets up after an initial break like we saw last week. Thanks for posting your question, Greg Capra
  6. Bobcollet, volume isn't an indicator like MACD and alike that attempts to intepert the direction or tuning points of the price action. Volume tells us the magnatude of interest at the time or the lack thereof. So volume is a secondary piece of information in addition to price, not an indicator. Of course, there are volume indicators like On Balance Volume. Like price indicators, volume indicators are redundate. Looking at a simple chart with price and volume is enough. Greg
  7. Hi Windsurfer, The concept is the same intra-day, it's universal. What I have explained is simply using the retest of a prior high or low as a reference point where another reversal should setup and you can place a trade based on your overall analysis. Using this intra-day does not make sense to move down to a very short time frame without a bias from a larger time frame. For example, you could use the 60 or the 30-min. time frame for your bias. If one of these (your choice) is in an uptrend you would buy a retest of a prior support pivot on the 5-min time frame. The higher time frame may form as continuous higher high, higher low bars with some overlapping. Within that overlapping is where the retest of the 5-min time frame will have occurred. Price patterns show us pictures that we have recognized in the past that resulted in prices moving in a certain direction. As "pattern traders" we look for recurring patterns that place the odds in our favor. If we see that pattern with multiple time frames aligned, market direction in alignment and other technicals we should have the making of a profitable trade. I have won 6 live trading challenges at various Traders' Expos using just simple price patterns and market internals. Trading doesn't have to be and shouldn't be complicated. The most complex part is finding a method that you have confidence in and then getting you human nature to follow the trading plan that you know has good odds of being profitable. Once you have a setup, press the button, with a stop-loss and see what happens. You'll never know for sure before hand if the trade will actaully work or not. As we all know, there is no Holy Grail. If there was I would have found it by now. All the best, Greg Capra
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