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suby

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Posts posted by suby

  1. Posted

    You are missing something that no one has mentioned in the posts so far. Ill get to that in a minute.

     

    I don't use MACD or any other lagging math based indicators. Do they work??? Sure . Im not here to argue that. I bet there are tons of people making money with what ever I think is lagging or what not. You mentioned price and volume and this is what keyed me into this post. If you look at on a given day and put the volume into a profile you will get a bell curve. No surprise this method is called "volume profile." What you will notice is that most of the volume will be at a particular price and by volume profile users this is a magnet and usually not seen as an advantageous place to trade. Know as the VPOC. IMO you don't want to trade were every one is trading. You don't want to trade where lots of short term traders are trading either.

     

    What you are missing is what you do want is to figure out where the institutions are trading and trade with them. Why? Because they move the market. That is why. Does this mean you should listen to Ben on the Squack and just go short when you hear Goldman getting short? NO But this is what volume is tipping you off to . You want to know what price did at certain prices and look to see if buyers or sellers are stepping in at that price then hit the bid or lift the offer and go. These should be predetermined price levels with obvious areas right behind them for failures.

     

    Honestly there really isn't anything else but volume, price, and time. And maybe the FED but thats a different post for a different thread.

     

    Colonel B,

     

    Thank you for your insight!

     

    I'm not sure if you use think or swim but do you know if it is equppied with the VPOC? If not what to you recommend for someone to use this tool?

     

     

    "

    What you are missing is what you do want is to figure out where the institutions are trading and trade with them. Why? Because they move the market. That is why"

     

    How do you determine/grasp where institutions are trading? Volume spikes?

  2. Posted

    While TRO and I don't exactly see eye to eye on the indicator thing, I find it hard to disagree with anything in the first post to his thread. Practical advice is hard to come by on message boards, while theory abounds.

     

    TRO is a nice counterpoint to all the hemming and hawing and waffling, even if you don't buy into the indicators.

     

    You might also be interested in the Reading Charts in Real Time thread, another no-bullshit contribution.

     

    Db

     

    DB,

     

    What indicators do you trade with/ what indicators would you recommend?

     

    Obviously this is subjective to each individual but I am curious to hear your insight on this.

  4. Posted

    Most who are working the simple <-> complex axis are really attempting to move towards more certainty on the certainty <-> uncertainty axis

     

    But - any certainty in trading is going to be low–grade (and also short lived) certainty

    so … :"Simple" ? Forget about it!

     

    …unless you don’t seek ANY adaptivity in your trading

    To be adaptive, consider that you may have to turn towards making your trading as complex as it needs to be instead of orienting to and pushing towards more ‘simplicity’

     

    Alright zdo....

     

    your advice is sage but you still havn't provided me with any advice....

     

    As i said earlier ultimately i make my own choices and decisions but one of the purposes of why i started this thread was to generate some insight of price to volume and what people use.

     

    What does your trading methodology consist of?

  5. Posted

    As the years roll by, I try to find ways of making this simpler. Unfortunately, as the years roll by, more and more beginners are -- shall we say -- "muddied" by an ever-increasing number of vendors and their nonsense. Once in a great while, I'll find somebody who's just starting out. In that case, the process seems to take no time at all. But more often the beginner has so much to unlearn that the process seems to take forever.

     

    In the case of volume, yes, it is important. But so much bad information is out there regarding volume that trying to correct the errors is a task in itself. And so many beginners think that Forex is the greatest thing since store-bought soap, and Forex doesn't have volume, that leaving volume off entirely is a lot less trouble and just might make things clearer.

     

    So, in a word, yes. If price is in a trading range, understand the dynamics of the range. If it isn't, understand the dynamics of trend. Volume can be helpful if you understand it. But if you hold a lot of wrong-headed notions about it, it's best to just set it aside and focus on price. Eventually, you'll be able to include volume again and you'll think "Oh yeah"...

     

    And, of course, the less said about indicators and Fib and Pivot Points and so forth, the better.

     

    Db

     

    DB what are your thoughts on candle stick patterns.,..?

  6. Posted

    The market is generous, it beams tons of signals about its intention to all the traders around the world without discrimination.

     

    Some traders can see signals in price,

    Some traders can see signals in volume,

    Some traders can see signals in volatilities,

    Some traders can see signals in spreads,

    Some traders can see signals in momentum,

    Some traders can see signals in bid and ask,

    Some traders can see signals in blocks,

    Some traders can see signals in foot prints,

    Some traders can see signals in delta,

    Some traders can see signals in profile,

    Some traders can see signals in time,

    Some traders can see signals in ticker,

    Some traders can see signals in harmonics,

    Some traders can see signals in averages,

    Some traders can see signals in stochastics,

    Some traders can see signals in relativities,

    Some traders can see signals in auctions,

    Some traders can see signals in astrology...

     

    don't worry about what other people see,

    you have to have your own theory of the market:

    you have to have your own theory of why the market goes up, and

    you have to have your own theory of why the market goes down.

     

    Your analysis is based on your theory.

     

    So, my question is, what is your theory?

     

    Thanks for the reply Tams

     

    My theory,

     

    The trend is your friend

     

    Buy high, sell higher,

     

    Sell low, buy lower

     

    I can read the instruments I choose to follow, my problem is developing my methodology. Every where i read says keep things simple.

     

    I have done research on stocastics and they work for some people and don't work for others

     

    I am trying to make things as simple as possible hence why i like to assess the price to volume relationship. Are there any tips you can provide me with in regards to developing a methodology...

     

    What does your methodology consist of.

     

    I understand that ultimately I am in charge of developing my own strategy and making my own decisions and having my own view on the market and the price action of a stock; however, as someone who is more or less a rookie in technical analysis.... it is hard to get to your destination with out a map

     

    I am attempting to develop my map, could you help?

  7. Posted

    Yes, the price:volume relationship is all you really need to trade. You don't even need the MACD, much less any of the hundreds of indicators available.

     

    Trading in this manner, however, is not for everyone. If you think you're cut out for it, see Trading By Price.

     

    Db

     

    Hi DB,

     

    I have read your post regarding Trading By Price and in it you even disregard Volume Bars....

     

    Correct me if I'm wrong but the strategy you are advocating is more or less to develop Support and Resistance Lines when the price is consolidating and making a decision from there...?

  8. Posted

    Guess I may have the very similar trades with Db today;) Thanks for all of your sharing, ur the true gift for me, haha.

     

    btw, i fund your threads of "keep it simple1&2" on ET yesterday, still very powerful!

     

    Could you post a link to those threads... can't find them anywhere

  11. Posted

    A major consideration is the size and type of your account. If you day trade ETF's then you need a min of $25,000 of buying power in the account per the SEC rules on daytrading stock. Futures do not have the same rules. You can day trade futures for the margin requirement which is around $2,500 for the NQ so that is all you need in the account. You can trade ETF's in your IRA, but not futures. IRA's are not allowed to offer margin. If you plan to day trade ETF's in an IRA you have to be aware of settlement restrictions (talk to your broker). Usually you cannot go in and of them all day long like you can in a normal margin account.

     

    I trade a lot of the triple leaveraged ETF's. They move fast, in both directions. Since the VIX index can make big percentage moves, the ETF's that track them do too. If the market is crashing, the VXX can easily move more than 10% in a day. The leaveraged VIX tracking ETF's, such as TVIX and UVXY are double the VXX and can move 25% in one day.

     

     

    I am not worried about trading ETF's that have low volume. The company that offers an ETF makes sure the spreads do not get very wide. They make money from that ETF and want to build volume so they keep the spreads pretty tight. One time TVIX got totally out of sync with the VIX index. The volumes were huge and the company (I think it was UBS) decided to not issue more shares to keep up with demand. UBS made a mess of it and personally I took some a big loss on that trade (My bad for not having a firm stop).

     

    Decay is only a problem for an ETF that doesn't go anywhere. If you use them for their intended purpose in a trending situation, then they work as advertised and sometimes better.

     

    Good Trading.

     

    Hey Garylorthe,

     

    Thanks for the indepth reply. I have never in my life heard about having a minimum of $25,000 in an account to day trade stock by the SEC. Can you clarify this?

  12. Posted

    You get a lot more leverage with the Emini than you do with etf. If you know how to take advantage of leverage, then use the emini, otherwise either will produce the same result. The underlying is the same.

     

    How do you "know" how to take advantage of Leverage...

     

    What about time decay on ETFS....

     

    Have you ever swing traded etfs?

  14. Posted

    Hey guys,

     

    I am trying to narrow my instruments and I am having a hard time deciding between E-Minis like QM and MGC and ETFS like VXX, TZA, and USO.

     

    I was wondering if I could get some opinions from the laboratory on this...

     

    Do you feel e-minis are safer or risker than etfs?

     

    Which of the two are easier to get started with as a beginner

     

    Are E-mini's better for day trading and ETFS better for swings....?

     

    Any advice is appreciated!

  15. Posted

    In my experience SIM is great for developing a methodology, mastering a set of rules, and learning how to follow them to the T. I think it's incredibly important to master this side of trading before going live because once you begin live trading it becomes a game of not managing trades, but managing emotions. You want to know your setups, your criteria for entry and exiting your trades before going live. It's also nice to have at least 50-100+ SIM trades worth of data to make some general conclusions about your method. The numbers have to make sense in order to take it live. That's my opinion anyways. Best of luck. I'd be interested in hearing how it goes.

     

    Hey Tim,

     

    I really appreciate the detail in your post. I currently use in my sim trading; Price, Pattern and Time. Specifically my methodology is based on the Pattern of the trend, the Volume and their relations to the moving averages... Am I missing anything?

     

    I think right now at this point in time is i'm still overloaded and am having a hard time developing a concrete methodology... I was wondering if you could comment a bit more on this and lead me in the right direction in regards to this...

     

    Many thanks!

  18. Posted

    1....ensure you have a plan for why, how and when you do things - this should be a working set of notes evolving.

     

    2...make sure you are profitable using the SIM account - and consistent - doubling the account on crazy bets does not count. then be prepared to throw real money in the market and understand SIM trading is not like real trading.

     

    3....have enough cash in the account to make it worth while.

     

    4....keep a journal and review it

     

    For 1 and 4 there is plenty of advice for good examples of these....but if you dont do both of these then it may be harder, and they are good habits to get into until things are ingrained mentally. They are also good habits to review when experienced.

     

    5....When you start trading and loose money - dont search for the holy grail in some coach or mentor and spend the rest of your money chasing a solution that probably wont work either. Review what you did, learn from yourself first and then seek advice once you understand what you are doing wrong (or advice when stuck - you have to work it out yourself - otherwise buy my book it wont help but what the hell it makes for an interesting door stop). Ask as many questions as possible and review and think about those and how they relate to you.

     

    6....if it all does not work - dont worry - its not the end of the world, its not suited to everyone. Get on with your life and do something else worthwhile.

     

    Until then welcome, and enjoy.

     

    Siuya,

     

    Thank you for the detailed response. The logging in a trade journal really hits home. Do you have any books/threads that you could recommend for a newbie to look at?

     

    Do you base all of your futures trading solely off of technicals or do you integrate any form of fundamental analysis into your approach.

     

    Are you solely a discretionary trader or do you use systems at all in your futures trading?

     

    In your opinion what is the minimum amount someone should trade futures with?

  19. Posted

    Hey Guys,

     

    I'm planning to start futures trading in my account in the next few weeks. I don't plan to do so until I double my sim account a few times. I'll be trying to stick with e-mini Oil and Silver.

     

    What would you guys recommend for a complete newbie for myself to get themselves as prepared as possible before I actually hit the ground running?

     

    Many Thanks in Advance,

     

    Suby

  22. Posted

    Was wondering if anyone has ever Futures Fundamental Analysis by Jack Schwager....

     

    A friend of mine recommended it to me but given the price tag i'm on the fence

     

    Whats everyone's take on Fundamental Analysis when it comes to trading futures?

     

    Do you guys use any form of Fundamental Analysis or solely trade on Technical Analysis?

     

    Any advice is appreciated!

  24. Posted

    Hi all!

     

    New to the forums, not new to financial markets but just starting to trade on my own. I'm still in the embryonic stages of my development but I've so far concluded that I don't want to build automated systems to trade. I've read through the forums and noticed that there is plenty of support for discretionary traders. I was wondering if any discretionary traders on this site use systems and if so what kind of systems?

     

    I am currently reading evidence based technical analysis and it strongly argues that Technical Analysis is wrong....

     

    How can a Discretionary Trader apply systems/systems provided in the book "Evidence Based Technical Analysis?

     

    Suby

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