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steve46
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Posts posted by steve46
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Today was on easy day....we got on the right side of the market early...and held on. Later in the day we were able to identify a nice reversal entry....
Attached are both the 10 min and 3 min views of our activity. For the 10 min chart we show pre-market trade entries....we DID NOT take the first (left most) trade because we were sleeping (it occurred around 4am) however we did take the second because the entry trigger occurred at about 6am PST....our goal is to find a premarket entry that is aligned with the intraday trend...sometimes we do that successfully, sometimes less so....
Postscript
While I am thinking about this, the reason the charts do NOT display the entire session is simply, that when we teach, we do not go through the whole day....we try to transmit specific concepts to the student, then we stop so that the student can internalize the material and organize their questions for the next session...
Best of luck folks
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My goodness folks. of course the domestic markets are manipulated....and the overseas markets are even worse....any institution can move markets now that "Ma & Pa" have left (because they lost their money in the last downturn).....and it will probably take years (or until a new generation of older folks retire) until the public find the courage to really entertain the idea of buying and holding equities....Generally speaking its a very nice opportunity to make money...
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Today's trades....a choppy seasonally slow summer day....the 10 min chart shows a pre-market trade (short) taken the previous evening...As always we encourage students to post any comments good or bad.....please don't hesitate....
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Trading gaps is about understanding what the gap signifies.....if the gap is an expression of momentum....the real question is....."is there enough interest and latent momentum in the market to sustain continuation of that move.....or is that interest and momentum exhausted (as is often the case) on the next open (whether it be the next open of a bar or candle, or the next open of a market session)
As with most things in financial markets, the "tell" is volume and the acceleration of either buying or selling volume on the next "open" after the gap....
For those who have a way to read volume, you simply watch which way it goes and compare to the movement of price in that same time frame.....IF volume is ramping up AND price is accelerating toward the gap fill, chances are quite good that the gap will fill...if (as is mostly the case) that momentum is exhausted on the open, you will may see one of two scenarios
Scenario 1....volume ramps directionally but price does not respond....this indicates that the other side has more horsepower and the move is likely to fail..
Scenario 2....volume and price create a reversal pattern and after a short hesitation, volume ramps up and then price follows in the opposite direction creating a reversal...
The bottom line is this....for those who don't or can't read volume, look for the acceleration of price either toward the gap fill or away....typically price will hesitate, creating a sideways move, and at that point you usually have an opportunity to enter...
Good luck
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First, gaming in general is no different than any other retail business....in any casino, the "games of chance" can be broken down into three categories based on the mathematical advantage that the "house" has over the customer....and whether that advantage is fixed or variable....not here to put on a seminar so I will cut to the chase...all are "fixed", meaning that the house edge remains the same throughout the game process, except for Blackjack and Video Poker...in these games the house edge is variable and can actually swing in favor of the player IF THAT PLAYER can execute perfectly (this is called "perfect play" and it means that the player knows and can execute the best option at each opportunity)....So the translation is that for all games but Blackjack and Video Poker, the player has a "negative expectation" of profit....and this means that for the majority of games of chance, over a specific sample size, the casino can be expected to win....and for the player playing those games, the longer you play, the more certain it is that you WILL lose....
With respect to financial markets and scalping, the reality is that like gambling, scalping is dependent on skill level AND on the participants ability to obtain the lowest possible fixed and recurring expenses. If for example a participant wants to scalp, however they pay common retail prices for commissions, inevitably they will fail....because the longer they scalp, the more likely that the house (in this the influence exerted by cost of commissions and day to day periodic losses) will overcome any profits they make....again not interested in putting on a seminar, but...the bottom line is that scalping is not viable for the retail trader....
So the remaining question is can a person scalp and let specific "scalps" run...turning them into position trades....I am dubious about this, because it requires the participant to change that frame of mind, from scalping short term to skilled evaluation of longer time frame opportunities....I am sure there people out there who can make that transition, however I am sure that they are "few and far between".....for example working in this industry for many years, I have seen only one or two....and they had the advantage of paying extremely low commissions that only an exchange membership can provide...I have never seen a retail trader do it successfully...
and Patuca your quaint story about "Capt Bob's Casino" was very entertaining....good job...
by the way folks, gold is headed down to test $1000....its not rocket science.....
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Anfield
One the problems you face is when you post on a site like this, is the possibility that the people who respond are perennial losers or worse.....to obtain something of real utility you may want to think outside the box....for example DBPhoenix is very well regarded and his comment to you had to do with the time you have already invested learning price action...AND he suggested trying Wyckoff....a reasonable suggestion.....I might go a step further and suggest that once you review that material, you look at this thread ("if you can draw a straight line") which has to do with using those principles to trade the NQ contract...it will take you some time, but I think its worth that investment....If you are a do-it-yourselfer this is probably the way to go...
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Prior to the open we go through a pre-market checklist....once students get the hang of it, they can determine fairly accurately what the intraday initial trend will be...
The attached 10 min & 3 min charts shows todays trades....we exited the market early as is our practice on Fridays....
The 10 min chart makes it easier to identify market turns
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and here is the open.....this is typical of the velocity that is generated by the ES market....by the time we can type it up a significant part of the move is already in place....the "algo" pattern has been posted many times (and mostly ignored)....
This market is (like the NYSE) impacted by automation....humans simply cannot respond fast enough to compete....what we CAN do however that the computer cannot is to plan ahead, anticipating likely conditions and adapt to developments based on our experience...and of course we can transmit this to others (teach)...
So to recap...in our pre-market prep we analyze the previous markets price action and we try to determine the likely intraday trend (if there is one to be found)....we also try to plan our trades off the open....AT the open we can see pretty quickly if our plan is valid....if it is we simply execute and manage trades, if not, we try to adapt and get on the right side of the market as soon as possible...
Once again, if my students wish to comment on any element of this post, have at it..
Today's open required preparation....and an ability to recognize opportunity. You either have that in place or you don't
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Typically students have one day off each week. On this day they are asked to prepare (we have a checklist) and then papertrade....we evaluate the results during a weekend meeting
Today, we entered a short position prior to the open....we have posted this strategy many times before...it is called "pre-positioning" and it allows the trader to obtain a small profit and favorable entry prior to the formal open.....if on the open we see continuation we hold scaling out...if there are pending reports, and we have profit, we have the options of managing the position into the report, exiting just prior....advanced students have the option to hold if they think they have an edge...
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Interestingly folks who have problems with confidence often seem provoked that others want to talk about it....I am guessing it must bring up bad memories...
Too bad.....its an important subject...especially for a profession where confidence is needed if one is going to take trades without hesitation....
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and here are today's trades with entries clearly posted
As mentioned previously, students are welcome to post comments
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Alright then replaced the chart, tip of the arrow is the entry....
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Todays trades
A choppy market as participants waited to hear Chairman Bernanke's comments
Fortunately this was a balanced market and the range was wide enough to make it worth it to assume risk...
The last trade of the day was taken by one of my students as a paper trade.....I did not take that one....It was a valid opportunity according to my system rules, however I stopped trading a bit early today....
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In my classes, confidence is built when students see me demonstrate skill.....
As the classes continue, these same students come to understand that with a little bit of effort, they can do the same things that they saw me do.....they learn that confidence comes with successful experience and competence.....
People who approach this profession knowing what to do, because they have seen it on a daily basis, become confident and actually look forward to each day's market open....because for them its not whether they will make money, but how much....
This is what a learning experience should be like....
Good luck folks...
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Today's trades as follows
To anyone interested. I was on the wrong side early on, but managed to make a few dollars on each of the first trades, primarily because in this market I scale out....so no losers there...
After price dropped out of the IB I watched and waited for the close of Euro Cash.....and used that to learn on....happily we got on the right side soon after and got paid from that point on.....
The other attachment shows a different look incorporating a longer time frame chart (90 min) and Standard Deviation Lines from my "Simple System" thread....what I would like to point out is that price came down to within one (1) tick of the 1st standard deviation.....this happened to the upside yesterday as well....within one (1) tick....once you understand how (and when) to use SD's, they can be a valuable asset to the struggling trader...
and for my students (day and evening session) if you have comments please feel free to post your honest opinions....never any problem with that.....
Good luck folks...
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Been watching this with much amusement.....while I want to be polite and take people seriously I really can't at this point....
Skilled people can demonstrate both skill and experience right away....one day should do it...if a person (who says they need skilled people to execute) TAKES THE TIME to really execute due diligence.....Sorry people but if one says they have a concept that will produce a 10m account, you don't just hire people without making the effort to insure they are right for the job....its typical self indulgent bullshit...from amateurs...
Nice try though, really fun listening to you all talk about your fantasy of making millions..
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Today's trades as follows
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Just thought of this and wanted to post it
There are a few of you who are members of previous classes....if you see this and want to be updated as to the changes made from the time you were in class please feel free to contact me...you will have free access to the current class
Finally all previous students are welcome to comment as you see fit....
Best to all
PS...one more thing needs to be said....the owners of this site have been very kind to me....I assume that they understand now that the classes I hold are small (usually 1-4 students at any time)...and therefore I am not a vendor in the traditional sense...I don't sell indicators, software, trade advisories or anything else for that matter.....So I want to help them as well and I do so by mentioning to those who might want to join a class, that membership and constructive participation here at TL are part of the screening method that I employ to determine whether to accept new students....
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from this point forward, we will post one (1) chart as shown, using arrows to show the entry point for our daily RTH session trades
The general approach is (with small changes for each student) taken from our simple system #2 and is taught a couple of times a year in our classes...in brief the idea is to enter with the primary trend (when possible)...to take partial profit soon after the entry, then hold the position to a logical exit....taking partial profit reduces the overall profit that might be possible from a system however it provides the psychological comfort that a struggling student needs in order to get to the point where they are making money (our primary goal)....as the student develops, we introduce other risk management protocols and allow them to decide just how risk averse they wish to be....
At the beginning of the class we ask students to watch (no trades) and see the process execute properly....after a few days, they notice that we don't take many losses and those we DO take are quite small....in comparison to the winners...this produces a sense of confidence and allows them to "go with" the system, to work to understand the background (system construction and maintenance) and to start re-building their mental construct (image) of what a profitable trader does....
That's it..
Best of luck to all
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For this day, we had an opportunity in the overnight market as shown in the attached chart
This opportunity occurred prior to our class and is shown as an example of what can be traded during the overnight session.
For the RTH session, we did not create a single day long chart of trades, so we are attaching a chart that was created shortly after the open, showing our initial entry for that day.
The next chart shows the area where we took partial profit (we call this "buying a stop")
and for readers, please understand that we are not going to answer questions about the method...we owe our students that discretion.....this is simply a public record of what we are doing...so that people who are struggling can SEE what a skilled trader teaches in a class situation...
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I thought I would try posting the day's trades (at the end of each day)
by simply attaching a chart
Frankly not interested in comments per se.....these are trades that I take during the course of each day's class....
The class begins the night prior with analysis of news and pending economic reports, and earnings. We then look at the longer time frame charts for opportunities that might exist during the overnight (Asian/European) markets.....if no opportunities exist in that time frame, we assemble our plan for the US RTH session...
The class has been in session for only a couple of days.....the attached chart is from the first day....
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So I have been thinking about Rande's comment on post 23 of this thread....
He makes a good point, people who may disagree, if they post at all... should say so in brief coherent manner, make their case and point & click elsewhere.....I have said the same thing and then (apparently) have forgotten my own good advice....So my apologies Rande, I have learned a valuable lesson....
Best of luck with your book
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I think one of the problems I have with forums is that the people who post say things that ARE partially true....and unfortunately the rest of the comment is so far from the truth that taken as a whole there is very little value for the person who may have asked the original question...
Trading is one thing.....and there ARE professionals, and amateurs who trade, some better than others, possessed of more or less talent, discipline focus motivation.....to intraday trade the S&P futures is very difficult....however it can be done....and it can be taught...yes it is difficult to find the right combination of teacher and system....but there are some out there...
I assume an adult knows that they should learn financial management skills.....learning how to invest in different time frames and different asset classes is called "diversification"....if a person isn't financially literate, they should address that deficit and learn to manage money...
If we are talking about trading (that's what this thread is about) THAT is a different subject altogether...and I tend to focus on the job at hand....
I had a similar conversation with person wanting to get into the class today....they wanted to know whether I was oriented to the intraday or longer time frame trade....I told them that success in this business is about recognizing opportunity on several time frames and learning to adopt the correct approach for each (opportunity)....what matters is learning to "recognize" opportunity....that comes first....then learning how to capitalize on it...is logically the second step....
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consistency is affected by skill level and by the nature of the systematic approach...as one example
I started a new class a few days ago....to date no losses.....the approach I use gets me in safely and very accurately....once in the market I take initial profit very quickly (1-2 points).
At that point I simply manage the position looking for price to resume the primary trend (no counter trend entries for students during my classes)....
The result is that I can provide significant psychological comfort upfront, knowing that if I take a loss it is going to be insignificant as compared with the potential winners. It took quite a long time to get to this point, but once there, it means that students quickly see light at the end of the tunnel...and that motivates them to stay with it and make the necessary changes (like learning to regulate emotions during the session.)
Generally speaking people here have had negative (or no) experience with skilled mentors, so this tend to arouse skeptics....personally don't care...and my current students (one night and one day session) are TL members so if they want to....they can comment on their own...
John Carter's Setups: Legit or Lame?
in E-mini Futures
Posted
Good comment Leo
This is the way a trader should approach everything....its your system, and your money, why not take the time to research and see if something works BEFORE putting money at risk...
As you know, there are many who expect to receive the information tied up with a pretty bow already to use "as is"....AND in a market that is changing all the time, they expect it to work indefinitely without having to do any maintenance.....how realistic is that?