tupapa

Nice work Gringo, and certainly exciting times, the Dow making all time highs, CNBC talking shit 24/7, folks finally have a "sure thing" in the stock market, etc... Is the bear coming out of hibernation....?? :cinema::cinema::cinema:

I think its useful to have a separate thread for EOD trading, not exclusively FX & commodities but EOD in general.

Thanks, maybe this is the best option. The main reason for having a log, in my case, is having all my data and images accessible from any computer at any time. Having to enter my username and password every time I wanna view an image is frustrating to say the least..

Hey Niko, I can't see the image you just posted, same as with my own blog.. Does anybody know how to solve this? I have asked the moderators several times but they aren't doing much about it.. Look forward to following your progress.

Tomorrows ranges: A (29-03) Go Long on a rejection of 145.03, Targets are 20 and 29 ---If we break below short PB Target is 82 Go short on Rejection of 20 Go short on Rejection of 29 Go short on Rejection of 37 --If we break above go long on PB, Target is 57

Would you say gold is on the Springboard? -The market has completed 3 days of higher support and the bars are compressing. -The volume is considerably lower than the volume on the 21st Doesn't this confirm that selling pressure is losing its force and buying power is overcoming it? # Its fascinating how the current price action in Gold is pretty much the same as what Wyckoff was looking at when he was trading the NY Times Average in 1931.

Tomorrows Plan; If we Open inside A Buy 36 ---If we break sell PB and monitor 17 Sell 47 Target is 36 Sell 64 Target is 36 ---IF we break higher buy PB and monitor 82 FI we Opwn Above A, BUy pb 64 and monitor 82. If we Open inside B Sell Rejection of 36, Target is Mp of range and 82 Look for longs at Mp of range or VPOC Buy rejection of 82.

what are you talking about?? lol

Fair enough, this is just a question of how much price risk or information risk you are comfortable with. IF you buy on the 21st (Climax) Your price risk is at its lowest: Tightest possible stop. Your information risk is at its highest: There is little confirmation, which might mean exiting the trade as soon as it turns against you. Probability of success is at its lowest Risk/Reward is at its highest If you buy on the current price action, assuming it fits your entry criteria) (secondary reaction) Your price risk increases: You need a slightly wider stop Your information risk is reduced: You have some confirmation (Higher Low) Probability of sucess is moderate Risk Reward is Moderate IF you buy as price breaks the last swing high (high of the technical rally) Your price risk is at is highest: Your stop is much wider than in the previous opportunities. Your information risk is at its lowest: At this point you have a HL, followed by a HH and you are buying into an established up-trend. Probability of success is at its highest Risk/Reward is at its lowest I guess it is up to the trader, to establish which combination he is more comfortable with. In my case, I currently opt for a mix of price/information risk but this might change in the future I know this isn't related to gold particularly or to gold in general. I am just trying to get my thoughts in order. Also, you seem like you know what you are looking for on a trade and I am sure you have your own interpretations of what risk is and how you deal with it in the trading arena.

Tomorrow there are two ranges: Range1- 63-37 Tange2 37-82, Mp at 17 The plan is: If we open In range 1: Sell rejection of 63, Target s 37 ---IF we break above, Buy PB to63 Buy Rejection of 37 --f we break below sell PB and tagets are 17 and 82, where I can look fo reversal setups If we open in Range 2: Sell rejectin of 37, tarets are 27 and 8. --If we beak above, buy PB target s 63. Buy Rejection of 82, Target is 17 ad 37. --If we break below, sell PBm target s are 65 an 44.

I completely agree, anyone can come up with a decent plan, but it is the ability to execute it that is the issue. This could be a secondary reaction or not, price could rise or fall, the outcome is uncertain. However, by analyzing what traders have done in the past and are doing now, we can make an assessment of the next most probable outcome. We are all placing our bets, even if our bet is standing aside and waiting. In my opinion, if we wait for to much confirmation, the race could be over by the time we make up our mind. And what is there to lose anyway? If our stop gets hit one or twice, who cares? It is just a bit of money, the risk reward of a reversal withing a large TR is worth the risk, isn't? Or are we risking more than money here...

Don't you think gold could be forming a HL at point 2, relative to the low at point 1?

Hello Muir, I'm not sure how to plot gold divided by a market or what this is suppose to accomplish, maybe you could post a chart and explain what exactly this is telling you? I don't look at correlations or the news, I simply rely on price and volume to make a trading/investing decision, which is what Wyckoff proposes in Section 7. You might be waiting for confirmation, which is fine, but remember that if you purchase on an up-wave you are increasing your risk. Wyckoff considered buying on an up-wave the least favorable opportunity. The first opportunity in Gold was buying on the Climax on the 20th The second opportunity is buying on the test, either Friday or maybe tomorrow, if price doesn't rally before you place your bid. The third and last opportunity is buying as price breaks the climax highs, above 1620.

Hello V_2008, Thanks for participating in this discusion on gold. Let me start with this, my post has nothing to do with telling you what to do, it is simply a scenario for a potential reversal at support, something that may or may not happen. This has nothing to do with my ego and I am not trying to prove anything, I am simply learning since I am a novice. Some people learn by reading, I don’t, I learn by asking questions and engaging in discussions, and I specially learn by doing. So I am posting these trade ideas, in foresight to learn, to learn from others, but more importantly, to learn from my mistakes. I love making mistakes, since they point the way towards were I want to be. Moving on to trading, which is what this thread is all about: First of all your chart is missing the most recent price action, which is the most relevant if we are considering a reversal, if you are going to trade you need up to date charts! Bare in mind that this is EOD trading, so when you mention "bigger picture" we are looking at monthly and weekly charts. If you have a look at these (posted by myself and Gringo a few pages back) you will notice both gold and Silver are in a Trading Range, within a macro uptrend. You could say price is in a downtrend towards the bottom of the trading range, but remember that you are focusing on the trees, don't forget the forest. Wyckoff wasn't talking about one chart and one period, he was talking about human interactions in the trading arena. These interactions create discernible patterns, that repeat themselves over and over again, regardless of the market, time scale or even time period. Why do we find the same patterns today as Wyckoff did 80 years ago? Because at the end of the day, trading reflects human emotions, fears, insecurities, greed, etc.. and these don't change with time. That's why we can safely assume, that the same patterns Wyckoff found the past century and that we find today, will be found in future markets. I would argue the opposite, for the following reasons: I am looking at both the Etf and the futures: Both the future and the ETF show: 1- An expansion in volatility after a prologed decline with an abnormal increase in volume, that leads to a strong rejection caused by a vacuum of sellers (this is the first buying opportunity, and Wyckoff defined it as a, "Buying on the Climax") 2- There is a test that, so far, could results in a HL and look at the volume, it is much lower! But how do we interpret this? -- The HL and lower volume tells us there are less traders willing to sell at lower prices, however, it also tells us traders are still interested in buying (if not, price would've continued moving lower). According to Wyckoff, this is the second buying opportunity, but why? Well, if there are less traders willing to sell gold at a lower price, but there are still traders willing to buy (which we've established above) we are assuming the remaining buyers will have to compete among each-other for whatever supply is still available, if price starts rising, those that haven't bought will start bidding prices higher due to a fear of missing out, leading to an upwave that could run for as long as it encounters selling to temporarily (or permanently) halt the ascent. This is why I believe entering long is a high probability trade, and one that Wyckoff would take himself. Now as we all know, there is nothing sure in trading, which is why we place a stop below the climax lows. This is how I understand the current price action in gold, but I am a novice so If the more experienced guys see things differently, I'm sure they will let us know.

Following the last post, there is currently a potential Hinge in Gold:

So it looks like the secondary reaction is probably coming to an end, how do we know this? 1- Sl is Broken 2- Buy waves are gaining in length and duration and the sell waves are getting shorter. 3- Three was lower volume on the test We must now assume the trend is tentatively up.

Tomorrows Plan Buy Support at the area 89/81, --If we break below, sell PB, and monitor: ------VPoc at 65 and suuport at 45 Sell resistance at 29/40 --If we break buy PB

Tomorrows plan there are 2 ranges: A: 27-80 and MP at 10 B: 80-53 Mp at 65. Plan is to buy Support, sell resistance and pullbacks.

Yesterday and todays trading, today I started by following my plan with discipline, but since the market didn't pick a direction, I got angry and this affected my trading negatively.

Gringo has mentioned options a few times but I don't know enough about them to even consider using them. It is something that I will decently explore. They are best used to bet on an imminent move right? I think Wyckoff would approve of them since he was such a fan of the springboard. Question about Gold to the more experienced EOD guys; The most recent rally was strong meaning the low at 1556 and we may have just experienced a technical rally. If that is the case, we want to buy on a successful secondary reaction. This is what Wyckoff had to say about this, from Section 7m: -The second opportunity comes when the market completes three days of lower support but the closing prices of each of these days are close, showing that the selling pressure is losing its force, since the net result of this pulling and pushing is to leave the asset unchanged after a considerable reaction (Contraction of Volatility). -At the same time, lower volume on the reaction confirms the inference that selling pressure is losing its force; buying power is overcoming it, as it now appears that the market has completed a secondary reaction. 1- When I trade intra-day, I have a rule of thumb that the secondary reaction, must retrace at leas 2/3s into the technical rally. Is this reasonable for EOD trading? 2- In this example,Wyckoff mentions three days of lower support and lower volume as the characteristics of the secondary reaction. Doesn't it make more sense to find the entry on a smaller bar interval than the daily like DB mentioned a few days ago? Maybe look for a micro-range on the 15-30m chart and place a buy stop above or a limit order at the lower limit of the range? Since I am used to intra-day and I have done my testing on 1m and 1tick charts, I don't want to apply the wrong principles to EOD trading.

With respect to this it is worth differentiating between trading Forex and trading currency futures. As Niko mentioned, the Euro/Dollar futures is a fantastic market, with plenty of opportunities. But it depends on your time-frame. I know many traders who trade the 6E intra-day and make money on a consistent basis. If you are trading them more longer term, perhaps using daily bars, you might only find 1 opportunity in a week, or 1 in a month.... I have a CFD account that I currently use for my longer term trading becuase it has a user friendly platform and I have total control over my risk (I can trade 10 CFDs, 1 CFDs, 0.1 Cfds, etc..(). Trading currencies longer term can be hugely lucrative and you get some decent trends so I wouldn't give up on them. Just look at that rejection of resistance in the GBP/USD at the beginning of February, it doesn't get more Wyckoff than that

Todays planed updated, Current Levels: Short 12 Long 86

Tomorrows Trades: A- Long Rejection 53/45 target is Mp of range and 93. B Short Rejection 93. Target is 53 C Short rejection 12. Target is 53 If break Above 12, Long PB Montitor 22. If break Below 45. Short PB and monitor 14

I agree with you that silver doesn't seem that strong, however, the Rally isn't over and price could carry on higher from here. As for Gold, it is looking as if buyers have something to say as today they kept bidding for higher prices, showing some strength. As you mentioned in your previous post, if there is a test, and it is successful, we could start thinking that the most recent down wave was a selling climax. Look forward to sharing further developments with you, I think the best way to learn this is by doing it in real time.

Fridays and yesterdays trading