To Taper or Not To Taper?

[To Taper or Not To Taper?]

I agree but backing off one month after starting would be Yellen signalling she's in control now

 

TW

 

Really... seems to me that she is in control now... no need to beat the breast (so to speak). Honestly... I think she's smarter than that. The FED is going to unwind. I'm sure they will take care of it in a responsible manner. Not to worry... it's going to happen, and everything will fall into place.

[To Taper or Not To Taper?]

just wait to see a couple of more bad news to come until next FOMC meeting and the sentiment will shift in a blink of an eye.....just the other day Yellen said the economy is recovering "painfully" low.......and she's the chairwoman

 

TW

You may be right about that. My take from the FOMC minutes is that there is a growing consensus that the risks are beginning to outweigh the rewards. If you consider that the FED has not begun to actually unwind their holdings, just a reduction in the rate of purchases... another taper move is not a big deal (my opinion). The FED has stated that they will do the taper in measured moves... certainly leaving it at 75B is within that guidance.

 

Thankfully, my trading style dictates that I only concern myself with what will happen in the next 5 minutes.

[To Taper or Not To Taper?]

no no......the idea is not to move back to 85, but to postpone the next tapering step as the economy is not feeling good

 

TW

That's a little harder call. I still doubt that one month will change things. The NFP number was so freakishly low, I would expect the number to be revised. It doesn't hold with all the other positive data that has come in the past few months. They may delay another reduction to see if the numbers improve, but I doubt it.

[To Taper or Not To Taper?]

way lower than expected NFP may put the taper on hold for now.....any thoughts?

 

TW

From reading the FOMC minutes, it seems that the FED would like to unwind QE3 in the worst way. I doubt one month that surprises to the downside would change that. I would also question whether moving back to 85B would make any difference in the payroll numbers.

[I Am Not Rich ! Do I Have a Place in Trading?]

I am just thinking I dont have that much to spend in trading yet I have the courage to try. I am just afraid I'd fail.

 

If you are afraid to fail; you probably will.

 

Open an account and trade in simulation mode for several months... see what you think (cost you next to nothing... a maintenance fee and software rental). And by the way, be honest while doing it. If you can't get profitable in simulation you will never be profitable trading live.

 

In short: save that money that you can't afford to lose for now, get some experience and figure out how you would chose to exploit the market. If you can get to that place, then ask yourself..."Am I afraid to fail".

[Forex Price Action Scalping]

Is this not the same old stuff regurgitated from come into my trading room by elder?.Elder did it on 5 mins.

 

The 20 ema thread has better set ups.

 

It has been many years since reading Dr. Elders book, but I don't recall similarities in the two books. If Dr. Elder did address "scalping" it may have been given a few paragraphs, not much more.

 

It may well be that there is "nothing new under the sun", and all books on trading share common threads.

[To Taper or Not To Taper?]

Another damn fine FOMC day. I'm going to miss the FED when they depart. Glad to have had the experience though.

[To Taper or Not To Taper?]

I would still like to see your vote on the poll please.....

 

thanks

 

TW

 

I did vote before posting. Yes... 20B taper.

[To Taper or Not To Taper?]

I would've liked to see the taper being announced in September... I think it's time, and I don't think a taper would tank the markets. A 15% percent correction would be healthy. In some ways, this easy money policy has been a drag on the real economy and I think the benefits have largely been played out.

 

Whatever the fed does... I've loved trading this nonsense over the past few months... give me doubt, greed and impending peril any day.

[Picture of the Day]

From Zero Hedge.................

[Trading for All?]

Thanks for the replies. I'm already off the hook because my answer was "no". This is just bad... can't believe I even entertained the idea. I think I'm done with it though.

 

If she wants to do this, I need to treat this as if she were an actual student, and teach her to trade. Where would we be after a couple of months... who knows. I don't really want to devote that much time to what may turn into a lost cause. I would have to methodically sit down go through all the decisions I make during the day and figure out how to explain it all. I'd probably mess myself up... geez... then my account would be leaking.

 

I do believe my answer has changed from "no" to "Oh, hell no". Love you... get a part time job.

[Trading for All?]

some time ago I read the "Market Wizzards" written by Schwagger, and at some chapter (I don't remember being in the first edition of the second one), one of the people that has been interviewed said that regardless the effort (time and money) he put it, human nature prevailed and none (or maybe 1 if I remember correctly) managed to be sucsessful in the long run..........

 

if I am mistaken and somebody knows better please intervene

 

TW

 

I know... that's what is eating at me. Love my family... do I really want to go down this road. LOL... maybe I'll just put her on the payroll and have her run errands for me... mow the freakin lawn... here's the grocery list. Dunno!!!

[Trading for All?]

I have people ask me all the time if I can teach them how to trade. I usually shirk the question, by laughing and saying… "You couldn't afford me"… I then go on to gently explain that I would have no way to be compensated for the money I would be missing out on. I can't believe that people ask… seems more appropriate to ask how you got started…

 

Recently though, a family member asked… I said "no" straight away. Being as it was family it got me to thinking about it. She is a teacher, and has the summer months off. She just wants to make enough to supplement her income during the time that she has off… no interest in making a living.

 

I could teach her to trade one simple set up. Get the trading platform set up with attached orders and an automated "move to break even" designed to scalp 10 ticks. I could have her averaging $150 per day on 3 contracts in no time. I think the rub is going to be getting her to sit on her hands and wait for a single setup… maybe restrict her to just a few hours per day. Start out in simulation until she gets it.

 

I'm going to have to think about it more, but I think it's possible to get it done in the evenings, maybe 6 sessions (though I could spend more time… it's family). Maybe I'll start a thread about the experience this summer.

 

The notion of training "all" to trade floated out of this. Of course it's absurd.

[Trading for All?]

How would it would it work if we (USA) were to set up a training program that would teach people to trade? Given the jobs programs that are available and the costs. Give them 5K... let em go (after training). Would folks make the most of it? What would be the percentage that would make it after a year? (their losses (or profits) getting eaten by you and me) Odd question... I know. Could anyone be able to receive training that would allow them to scalp for small profits... supplement their income... nothing else... or something much more? No going large...

 

Really odd question...

[Be Your Own Client]

Having a bit of trouble making sense of your post. For one, most likely if a friend has to tell you that you’re pissing all over yourself and an accountant has to tell you that you’re bleeding money too fast, then most likely your 'choices' are also always going to be limited as to what you can do about it

...and if a friend has to tell you you’re pissing on this thread...

 

Easiest thing to do would be to throw your predicted post onto the examples pile of “just about all the posts that are outright anti-psychology or those simply taking the ‘you don’t need psychology’ / ‘develop an edge and system and then if you have issues, deal with them ‘ position are ultimately be you own ‘therapist/ psychologist / coach’ positions/posts…”. Basically it seems your comments about ‘responsibility’ do that exactly…

 

I’ll add a few comments just to keep it ET up in here… like… If you’re arguing that if one has character they don’t need ‘psychology’… great deal of truth to that… but this is not the thread for that conversation.

On a case by case basis though it’s quite possible to have quality character and still need work in widening individual and specific mental, emotional, etc. tolerances and resilience.

 

Improving ‘ability to respond’ (responsibility) AND ‘ability to project’ (anticibility ) in performance work is precisely the purpose of the first post.

 

So, while I can agree with you that "I think far too much is made of trading psychology”

(heck I don’t really even know what ‘trading psychology’ is and don’t really relish what I do ‘know’ anymore, and I have implored them to change the sub forum name to Trader Development … or anything but Trading Psychology … yet through all that I still do know enough to be able to recommend that you re-check your own constructs of what ‘trading psychology’ is )

… anyways… the reality remains that because of individual differences, some people really do need professional help / help from others with certain and varying ASPECTS and STAGES of their development as traders. (and, btw, for various conditions, other modalities are far more appropriate than ‘psychology’... but that too is off topic )

 

A few won’t ever need any help at all… some can do it via ‘be your own‘ self help… some only need a little help… and some need a lot…etc...

 

jpennybags, this thread is to assist those who may be able to do it via ‘be your own‘ self help … not about whether ‘trading psychology’ is useless bullsht or not…

 

Sorry... didn't mean to seem like I was saying that trading psychology was useless. I think it has a place. If I thought that trading psychology would have helped me then I would've been all over it... part of taking responsibility for one's success. It's not usually one thing that will turn the corner for most people, it's a combination of things. Getting to that place takes time and commitment (I don't know of any natural born traders... though there may be). Therapy takes time and commitment... taking responsibility.

 

There are enough different ways to make money in the markets, that everyone should be able to find a method that allows for an individual's risk tolerance and suits their particular personality. I think it's a quicker approach that allows an individual to compensate for tendencies and build upon a system that they understand from the inside. That said, if one wants to move to the next level, and needs to make some changes... by all means... advance the theater.

 

Trading psychology gets sold as one of those "magic bullet" approaches. I think that's what I find most troubling about the business as a whole. Not in anyway laying that on you.

[How Do You Decide the Next Move Will Be Big or Small]

Trading the ES I find that I wind up with a lot of small trades and only two or three decent trades most days.

The signals for the decent trades quite often are weak and some of the small trades have strong signals.

 

Do you Guys find the same thing and how do you filter out the potentially small trades

 

Horace,

 

I trade the TF... kind of a different animal. The words "small" and "decent" are not very clear. I can assemble a very good day taking 7 to 10 ticks. If I manage to add a 30 tick move... well, I'm one happy clam.

 

Unless you need to have the liquidity that ES provides, give TF a try.

 

As far as filtering for large moves, it seems to me that a market is an ever changing equation. It's not extremely difficult to observe price action to see weakness or strength building. How far that move will evolve is largely a product of the ever changing equation.

 

S/R is of some help to gauge what's possible.

[Working From Home]

How about a new drama called "trading bad" where a savvy wolf like trader exploits the new and destined to fail novice traders he meets on-line into giving them the best trades on the planet. Heres how it works: the wolf trader eggs on his new trading sheep friends to share their position entry/exits - a little ego stoking they will be happy to provide that. The only thing left to do is to take the exact opposite side of the trade. This will all but guarantee fast and big profits. As the profits grow quickly the wolfy trader gets greedy and realizes he needs a lot more sheep - so he opens his very own brokerage - to get in new sheeps he offers massive leverage and first 50 trades for free + free trading classes on some so called new instrument like currency pairs that is advertised to turn their $500 into millions.

 

Aloha,

 

Dave

Throw in the murders of the sheep who catch on to keep the scheme alive... you may have something. Give the guy a super ego, deception, and murder... could work.

[Working From Home]

Maybe we should start an at the "water cooler / coffee machine / microwave" thread. I'd be there... celebrate the hausfraus that we've become... LOL.

 

I've found that hard water stains can be removed from your dishwasher by putting 2 tablespoons of citric acid (the same stuff used in canning) in the detergent dispenser. Run on normal cycle... bright as new. LOL.

[Be Your Own Client]

Be your own...

 

Accountant / best friend... I think far too much is made of trading psychology.

 

A good friend will tell you when you're pissing on yourself... your accountant will tell you when you're leaking money like a sieve. The choice is always yours as to what to do about it. There are people who go from one bad decision to the next... never grasping the personal responsibility required to be successful. They lay blame on misfortune as if misfortune happens to all... it doesn't.

 

The best therapy there is... making money. The road to get there is responsibility... trader psychology... not so much.

[Working From Home]

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BTW . . as long as we are standing around our symbolic water cooler, what did you think of last night's episode of "The Walking Dead" ?

 

Sorry... It's a popular program that I've never been able to get into. Something about zombies that I have a hard time with. AMC puts out some good drama... I suffered "breaking bad" withdrawal when the show ended.

[Working From Home]

I know what you mean about living healthy. I am not a declared vegitarian, but I can not remember the last time I ate meat. I have converted a room in the house to a gym, including a cedar sauna. I have also become a neat nut.

 

Weird ? Yeah. Since I work alone and at odd hours when I do interact with other humans I have become a "Chatty Cathy".

 

I would second that. I'm 20 lbs. lighter than when I was working... something about the social thing of taking lunch and business dinners. Portions are always more than you need. I was raised such that you cleaned up your plate... it was ingrained that you eat everything.

 

I used to speak with 15 to 20 people per day... mostly business, but there was a personal side to it as well. I miss that. I compensate by striking up conversations with merchants, cashiers, and anyone who is idle enough to talk. I come off as an outgoing person, but honestly... I just haven't had anyone to talk to all day.

[Working From Home]

I've been ruined for returning to the work force again... can't imagine having to make the commute everyday. The thing about not being exposed to the cold / flu virus is so true. I used to catch cold twice a year like clock work. I haven't had a cold in 3 years... it may have been 4 years, as I honestly cant recall.

 

The thing about getting "weirder" is amusing. I've often questioned if spending so much time alone is healthy. I can't see any ill effects, but maybe I would need to be on the outside looking in to notice.

 

I used to be in charge of the development and fabrication of multi million dollar tooling systems, and now I putter around the house looking for little projects to fill the day. That was a transition that was difficult... still is at times.

 

My house is always clean, the bed gets made everyday, and if I want to take the day off... I do. Sweet deal, if you ask me...

[Sierra Chart Vs Ninja Trader]

Ninja caters to the brokers and third party suppliers where Sierra's concerns are the users. The proof is Sierra's response and action to user problems and Ninja's lack of action.

 

I would second that... Sierra support has been great. I have submitted requests for changes in the past. It always gets addressed, and incorporated if it makes sense for their product.

[Broker Purchased... Seamless Transition or Not?]

I'm currently with Velocity Futures (VF). They have been purchased by ILQ and will now become an IB. I'm satisfied with the service, execution, and commissions at VF. The account transfer will occur 10/11/13.

 

I've spoken with VF and am satisfied that the transition will (should be) seamless, and I can find no reason to be wary of it, but you don't know what you don't know. Anyone been through such a transition?

[Sierra Chart Vs Ninja Trader]

I'm considering making a change in brokers. I've been using Sierra Chart for 3 years and I like it. Ninja Trader is a platform offered at most FCM's... Sierra Chart offerings are sparse.

 

I'm currently with Velocity Futures. They have been purchased by ILQ and will now become an IB. I am satisfied with Velocity order execution and commission rates. Even though I've been assured that the change will be seamless. I'm always skeptical... so, we shall see.

 

My question is for those who have used both platforms. Is there anything that I would miss about Sierra Chart if I were to switch to Ninja Trader?

 

I might add that I don't care about indicators, and I don't program automated systems.