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mea
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Posts posted by mea
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Not familiar with either of those Darth, the titles sound interesting and potentially relevant.The comment was addressed to Mea who perhaps might have missed the main thrust of this thread.
My quote and comment indicate, I was replying to the original poster's question, not any other comments herein. So, why did you make such a comment? Perhaps you might have misssed the main thrust of my comment?
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The bayesian part of my brain I've been cultivating can't possibly disagree with that statement more...down with frequentism and its illusory "facts"!I never said frequency was a "FACT", you implied it and ASSUMED such.
"A TRUE market EDGE is the exploitation of a PROVEN FACT, not an unproven opinion or theory nor possibility or degree of probability". So, what FACTS do know about the market to exploit?
If you don't know any facts to exploit, Then, your just a temporary liquidity provider to the market like the majority are, and that's unfortunate for you and them. However, I would to thank you for providing your liquidity.
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Good post JBW, particularly about emotions often being more complex than simple 'fear of loss'. In my case fear of failure is closer to the mark. This results in a couple of re-occurring execution errors . Funnily enough these do not manifest themselves as fear in 'real time', I am pretty relaxed when I trade. Its just the primal instincts doing it's stuff even though it's misplaced in trading. What I am saying is that the fearful even can occur in the past and the stuff that's going on trade to trade is quite calm, it just might limit your trading potential rather than blow you out of the water. I think its often more complex than people think.Mea do you stick to your plan 100%? You are a rare trader if you do, and probably one I could learn from! I know a couple of fully automated (retail) traders and even they interfere with there systems! A complete plan is a starting point (OK maybe the first or second hurdle) not the finishing line imo. Having said that of course the more trust you have in your plan the more likely you will follow it come hell or high water.
Do I stick to my plan 100% of the time? I don't have a choice but to! As market analysis, when building strategies based upon MARKET FACTS (not opinions, theories, possibilities and degrees of probability) for ALL market conditions one may encounter, has answered EVERY question of ANY possibility which would occur within any given trade. That's what I truly COMPLETE trading plan accomplishes! Which can be accomplished both manually as well as automated. However, with an automated system to accomplish the same, would require not only a Ph.D, but the budget of the NSA as well! LOL
You said you know trader's that interfere with their systems. Well, that's a perfect example of an INCOMPLETE trading plan/strategy for a given trade! They haven't answered ALL the questions required for EVERY possibility for a given trade.
It appears we are getting off the topic of the original poster. Also, my intent of posting was to "give back". Therefore, I will start a new thread explaining all the details of what a truly complete trading plan/strategy entails, but don't expect it to be completed until the weekend, as since I do COMPLETE trading plan mentally, I'm really burned out by the end of the day!
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A statement often seen on boards.I have never seen it made by one who has traded long and trades their own money at a significant size relative to their equity. So far, all of the examples I've seen have either been made by a clear newbie or someone who has been later show to be deceiving us for some reason. Often there seems to be a touch of "supporting ones own opinions" to avoid cognitive dissonance or a rigidity of opinion.
Perhaps this is not the case here. Never having met an emotion free trader I am genuinely curious. Feel free to give a little history that would support your expertise Mea.
One of the main reasons trader's fail is the fact they trade opinions, possibilities and degrees of probability. Instead of trading FACTS and the exploitation thereof.
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Crash Monday? Perhaps, but Unlikely.
Who cares, just trade it. We are trader's right? not investors.
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Instead of candlestick, would it be better to read the price action by looking at the demand and supply trade by trade, that is just following each executed trade?You can answer your own question by testing. Most importantly, build strategies around FACTS, not possibilities and degrees of probability.
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If a trader has a truely COMPLETE trading plan. Then, there is no emotion involved at all in trading and discipline aspect is taken care of as well.
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Have you tried connecting your cable modem ethernet line directly to your computer and thereby bypassing the router? Thus, if problem still exists, at least you know the router isn't causing it.
Also, if you try this test, turn the power off to both the computer and modem, and after connecting the ethernet line to your computer, turn the power on to the cable modem first, wait til all normal lights are on. Then, power the computer back on. At least that how my system requires it to be done. Your cable modem type and provider as well as their system reboot requirements may require a different way (reverse prior instructions) to reboot the system correctly.
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Dogpile,
Thank you for your example and all your help throughout this discussion. I hope someday, I can do the same in return.
Mark
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Please refer to answers section.
QUOTE=TRex;18596]There is one flaw in the trade like a casino theory.
Casinos have a build in mathetical edge--a pure irrefutable, statistical advantage over the player on EVERY decision.
Answer: Correct, and so can trading.
The very best professional traders can profit on 80% of their trades, but those trades or setups if you will, can fail at any time and cease to perform as they did in the past due to an adjustement in market behavior.
Answer: Correct, and the "edge" or advantage a trader can have is knowing a particular strategy will not be correct in the changing "market behavior" which was proved by science and capitalize on it by utilizing a correct strategy for the market conditions at hand.
just witness the increase in volitity in August.
Answer: Which means, different market conditions require various strategies which have to be matched to the market conditions.
The market annihilated the pivot and S/R traders as no levels were respected by the market.
Answer: Which is a sign of changing market conditions and you better have a successful strategy for it or stay on the side lines.
Regardless if one is a quant or discretionary trader, the "science" failed.
Answer: No, the science was applied incorrectly. Meaning, the person who analyzed the market conditions correctly and applied a correct strategy for said market conditions wins, and the person who failed to analyze correctly lost.
Why, because it really wasn't science in the first place. It may have been high probability trading, but it is not and never will be an edge like a casino.
Answer: Science has proven it can be exactly like a casino analogy, if the science is applied correctly. Just as casinos pay out a small portion of there winnings to the public. So can a trader, hedge fund, investment bank, mutual fund etc. win most of the time and give back very little to the market. Again, if the science is applied correctly.
So, the casinos don't have this issue. Their "market conditions" never change and the odds on their games remain constant on EVERY single roll of the dice, spin of the wheel, or turn of the cards
Answer: Correct. And, the secret to trading by science is the ability to recognize the changing market conditions and apply the correct strategy for it
My posting to you is not to argue or offend you. Rather, quite the opposite. Meaning, to have you as well as all others reading this think "outside the box" and possibly add to your trading arsenal.
Also, I have reviewed your site and was able to determine some of your methods, which are valid and I wish you the best in your endeavor.
Mark
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Quote by Dogpile
I don't think you can ever say, the 'science' failed. strategies fail, science does not. for every strategy that fails, there was a strategy that faded the failed strategy. the strategy that worked was based on good assumptions (the science), the strategy that didn't work was based on only a perception of science (bad assumptions).
Exactly, Thank you.
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Plesase refer to answers sections.
I believe trading is far more an art than a science.Answer: I disagree.
For one thing, if trading were a science, then we should all be able to enter the same trade at the same time, and exit at the same time, getting identical results.
Answer: Correct
We all know that just isn’t so.
Answer: Incorrect
Yet if trading were scientific, we should be able to get identical results by doing the same thing.
Answer: Correct
I believe such expectation describes the “scientific method.”
Answer: Correct
In addition, if trading were scientific, we should be able to come up with a “get rich” formula that would work all the time.
Answer: Both correct and incorrect
We could then all retire and never have to work again.
Answer: possible
We all know this isn’t so either.
Answer: you mean, you believe it isn't so.
When we, as traders, make a trading decision, most of the time we do not fully know why we are making that decision.
Answer: Incorrect
You look at a market, you think about taking a trade in that market, and at some point you pull the trigger. You have thought of dozens of things in the time interval leading up to your entry. If I were to ask you, "Exactly why are you buying what you are, or why are you selling what you are?" you would probably not be able to give an accurate answer.
Answer: Incorrect
You may be able to give a few reasons, but it will most likely not be the full answer.
Answer: Incorrect
A lot of your decision to enter is subconscious.
Answer: Incorrect
You do not really know why you entered, especially if you are day trading. To that extent it is more an art than a science, because you cannot fully demonstrate why you are doing what you are doing.
Answer: Incorrect
But you could say, "I fully know what I'm doing. I am taking the trade because I am following the signals of my method or system."
Answer: Correct
Wonderful, you have just proved my point.
Answer: Incorrect
When you are blindly trading signals from a method or system, you truly don't know why you are taking the trade.
Answer: Incorrect
You are essentially acting like a robot,
Answer: correct
pre-programmed to follow signals whether or not they make sense.
Answer: Science has proven them to "make sense" or be successful at least 85-90%.
I am not disparaging trading that way.
Answer: Yes, you are. Since you cannot figure it out, you try and find ways in your brain to prove it incorrect.
If a method or system produces winning results, then what you are doing is following a statistically proven plan.
Answer: Correct
All methods and all systems are based on statistics.
Answer: Correct.
The odds on any single trade are never more than 50% win or lose.
Answer: Incorrect
However, the probability for a succession of trades is quite another story.
Answer: ok, what's your point?
If you are trading a method that wins seven out of ten times that you enter, and the method has produced a loser three or four times in a row, then the probability for a successful trade increases each time you enter the market.
Answer: Incorrect
Sooner or later, over a series of trades, you are going to have the result of seven winners against 3 losers.
Answer: Incorrect, science has proven a system to more profitable than not, regardless of number of trades or any particular ratio you intend to use.
That is statistically valid; however, it is not exactly rocket science.
Answer: Incorrect, it is scientifically proven.
You will have proven that trading is an art — the art of following a statistically valid plan.
Answer: Incorrect, science has proven trading can and should be scientific.
In conclusion, art as a method of trading, is guessing and gambling. I don't do either. Thus, I never gamble at casinos. As the odds are in the houses favor, unless your a professional gambler with a scientifically proven "edge" or advantage over them. Hence, the reason a choose to trade, as I'm the house, and the odds are in my favor which were proven scientifically.
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Please refer to "answers" sections.
For those that took the plunge and went full time....how did you do it?Did you have money saved up,
Answer: Yes
did you have any bills to worry about,
Answer: Yes
what made you decide it was time to quit the full time job?
Answer: Having stratagies for all market conditions with at least 70% success ratio, usually 85-90% success.
Were you already independently wealthy
Answer: no
or did you just take a big chance and grit your teeth?
Answer: You never take chances. As indicated previously, if you have proven stratagies with at LEAST at a 70% success ratio. Then, you don't need to to chances.
Just trying to see if there are any suggestions from anyone who's been down the road as to what I should start working towards.
Answer: Finding stratagies with highest proven success ratio for all market conditions.
Experience of course is the best teacher,
Answer: Having proven stratagies for ALL market conditions and recognizing which market conditions you are encountering are the first step and correspond with experience.
but any information I can glean will help shorten the learning curve.....
Answer: Again, find proven, successful stratagies matcheed to market conditions and do not deviate from the rules which make those stratagies successful.
Currently I work full time in the mortgage industry, making decent money, nothing crazy. I work 8 hrs a day, come home and spend another hour or so looking at charts for EOD data trades....
Answer: Your on your way in regard to analyzing charts, just stay away from all indicators.
then I devote the next 3-4 hours studying and studying and studying some more.
Answer: Don't over analyze. The secret lies within the chart. Its staring you right in the face. People look, but they don't see. Its there, find it and when you do find it, keep it to yourself, as if too many people utilize it, the "powers that be" will use it against all of us.
Oh yeah, and spending time with my wife. LOL
Really ready to start working towards devoting full efforts to trading, and I am willing to take the long road to get there...but I would like any advice on making that first step.
THANKS.
In conclusion, I sincerely hope your endeavor is successful.
Mark
Thanks in advance for any info.
Reading the Price Action by Looking at Each Trade
in Technical Analysis
Posted · Edited by stanlyd
That's one my goals.
Also, my main consideration is to "give back" as well as hopefully, turn the majority into the minority.
Everyone has the ability within to be a genius in some aspect, it just has to be brought out.
Additionally, everyone knows the old saying regarding something for free. Therefore, I'm left with no other recourse, but to make people earn it, by answering the questions themselves. Thus, it will be priceless to them.
Lastly, there is the old trading saying, "those that can trade do and those that cannot teach". Well, I'm not here to teach, just give information. Its the reader's job to teach themselves.