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RealDemo
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Posts posted by RealDemo
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Really Tams?..... Fox news? you surprise me.
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There are certainly some scary bunnies hanging around here.....
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Today I gather yet more evidence that I remain plankton like before the mighty whale market.
I was geared up today that what ever else gives out it wouldn't be my execution of the plan.
Well the first trade was taken, not good direction. Second trade triggered by the closing of the first, good direction but........ user error.
Why I placed the stop there I do not know, it's not it's place, but it was found. :doh:
So shocked and annoyed I decided to abort. An entry in the NY session with the pin off the pivot would have been nice but I was away from my computer.
100 odd pips here would have lifted moral but it was not to be..... on to the next, it's all experience.
Here is the chart in all it's resplendence.....
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Ok, my mornings trading cancelled due to external forces.
So on the pound the channel break came last night and turned into a TA dream.
I can't talk about this as a 'real' trade as I wasn't there to take it but with my retrospective goggles fitted firmly over my eyes I can give it a go.
My strategy involves making a decision over trading a trendline breakout or fading it. GBP I've found responds quite well to fading if given enough reasons.
Weighing up the probability of a TL break failure my reasons would be this:
1- the pound is weak against $ at the moment
2- 5480 holding price back yesterday
3- DP possible resistance
4- bull channel lower TL retest
5- bearish TL from recent high
......wow these goggles are great.....
....as I type crying into my gruel.... massive dollar strength coming in to the market.
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This weeks GBP so far I've got in this gentle bullish channel. Previous 4hr swing failed to make a lower low.
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With no strategy set-ups this morning I took a rather callow short on the Aussie. Thought it would pullback much further than it did after having had a good run..... it didn't.
But at least I did recognise that this wasn't going to be and entered half size and managed to pull a little profit anyway.
Gold pushing higher and coming up to a major resistance. With this chart of 30m gold I've got the fxcm usdollar chart. Not exactly the $index but not far off. Fairly high negative correlation, so if gold bounces I'll be looking for dollar strength, if it breaks then I'll be looking for continued dollar weakness.
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Have you tested this in any way, forward or backward?
Avoiding all news will have you sitting on the bench quite a lot especially during those two sessions. I tend to view news as market petrol. The market needs it to get where it's going, without it, like today for example, we end up going nowhere.
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I tried fading the Euro this morning. Limited success as there has been no follow through. Slight profit with minimum lot size but flat going into Tuesday.
(Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank said on Monday Vice Chairman Thomas Jordan was going to take over as chairman from Philipp Hildebrand who stepped down after a controversial currency trade by his wife.
"For the time being, the Vice Chairman, Thomas Jordan, will hold the position of Chairman of the SNB Governing Board," the SNB said in a statement.
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Well I checked today and for whatever reason it's now sorted itself out. This is correct.
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Why is the balance off?How many different pairs do you trade?
Do you stick to a particular timeframe?
Are you scaling into or out of trades? What is your basic strategy?
Are you posting your entry stop and exit levels before you enter?
I applaud your effort and courage to post publicly and I hope you succeed.
You are going to make mistakes. It's a game of mistakes. The guy with the least mistakes makes the most. So, when you think you made a lamebrain decision, it's just a part of the game. Regroup and reload.
My opening balance was $2057.71, minus the 90cts doesn't make $2020.12, maybe I'm missing something. The site in question doesn't explain its inner workings very well. I may well look for another, maybe fxbook.
I trade 4 pairs EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD & USDCHF. I normally only trade one at a time.
I place my trade on a 15m chart with reference always to the higher time frames, the 4hr especially.
I'm all in and I scale out using daily pivot R1 R2 etc. The basic strategy is a London open momentum/breakout grab the wave and ride it as far as I can strategy, really no more complicated than that.
An intraday trendline from previous day highs or lows gives me a line in the sand at which I watch for price action set-ups.
If I'm really on the ball and feel confident about direction I will sometimes fade a breakout, but always in the direction of the bias. I try and trade with the prevailing bias, long or short Dollar always, although I am cautious around possible 3+ day corrections I may take those types of trades occasionally.
I don't post before, but I do try to screen capture during my trade, for my own records as much as anything. The last USDCHF chart that I posted shows my live entry and stop.
Thanks for your post and encouragement, I appreciate it.
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The balance isn't correct for some reason on this FXstat site, it should be $2056.81 but the -0.90 is correct.
A very disjointed stuttering start to my trading month. Honestly I feel lucky to be down only 0.90 cts.
I have really got to stick to the plan and I feel it would be wise to almost take the 'set & forget' line of attack, because my intervention is nearly always a bad thing.
NFP is out of the way and this pitiful start has only made me more determined to work harder.
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I agree with that..........but why would you do that?
....well exactly, you wouldn't, even though the terrorists on 911 were nearly all Saudi's. Sorry sarcasm doesn't translate well, I'll refrain.
Obviously Iran has a despicable regime, but there are better ways of containment than all out war.
War is expensive and generally creates more problems than it solves.
I think I have a right to an opinion other than just 'bomb the bastards'.
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Hi RealDemo,Your comments are starting to worry me.
I see you come from France. No problem.
I'm glad my geographical location on the planet isn't a problem for you, I hope you haven't drawn any false conclusions from that fact... I'll try not to do the same about where you live.
I think Iran is a real trouble maker.
Do you think closing the Strait will help your trading?
Do you think a nuclear Iran will help?
And you are supporting Iran??
Are you telling me or asking me?
I think you already have me boxed up and ready to ship Bob. Do you normally jump in with so many feet?.
Seriously Bob I'm not the enemy, though I now seem to be yours.
Your aggression is unsettling.
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Every American soldier died in Afganistan was killed by Iranian supplied weapons.Do you think USA will let this go?
Every soldier? come on lets discuss the issue without extreme propagandist statements.
Yes Iran supplies weapons..... but so do many other countries.
If you want to talk about letting things go why not attack Saudi arabia.
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I afraid a war is inevitable... probably within the next 90 days.
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Inevitable? how would the US justify a war? is Iran attacking the USA? are Americans that insecure? what exactly is at risk here?
If Obama has any sense at all he'll stay well away from any warmongering.
American people don't want it.
Iranian people don't want it.
Israelis don't want it.
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It's cathartic.... :crap:
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Long USDCHF this morning.
Tight overnight range with weak but constant support for the Dollar.
Dollar bulls coming back into the market at the start of London session.
SL now @ 9460, Dollar looks bullish but expecting a retracement in price, need to hang on.
Reason for SL placement:
Under 38% fib
Under last 15m swing
Under 9468 PSH
Under R1
Judging where to hang on is difficult. To tight and you risk getting stopped out before price moves higher, to loose and you risk giving back unrealised profit in the event of a reversal, but it's probably here that the real work begins....... or ends.
Price may want to test 9450 in which case I'm out.
ADP later will probably make it or break it.
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If you don't do things you know you should, you're less likely to succeed. Thinking about ways to improve your trading and creating a plan of action is something someone who wants to be successful should be doing anyway. Saying it's new year's resolution is just convenient from a timing point of view. So do and succeed.I agree.
I personally need to get a grip on many of the psychological aspects of trading that are holding me back and often create mayhem.
If I were to draw a driving analogy I'd be the new driver who thinks he's observing the road but in actual fact he isn't. This new trading landscape that I have entered into requires the acquisition of skill and competence that will take time to accumulate, 2012 is another year in which that search continues.
Btw, I quit smoking on a new years resolution 4 years ago so it can sometimes provide 'the moment'.
All the best for the new year.
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Stopped out of long bull trap I think, certainly I feel my bull has been well and truly trapped.
Errors:
Did not close out 1-2 lots at 10pips as written in rules.
Shorting the dollar was the wrong bias.
Recognition of market condition poor and re-entry possibility missed.
Entry into possible longer term continuation trade missed.
I'm adding 'watch for possible market fade after entry' into the trade management rules in the hope that one day I'll read them.
EUR and CHF the big movers in todays European session.
Not at all the best of starts, I lost 2% capital today and then stare at the price that's moved 175 pips and I wonder wtf........... :crap: did I black-out there for a bit?
It's not the 2% that concerns me, it's the bad trading stemming from a lack of discipline.
I need to get back to how I was feeling in demo, which at it's best felt a lot less forced.
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Asia decide to open with a bang and Europeans come in to support.
EUR,GBP,AUD all moving higher in that session which leaves no set-ups for me on these pairs this morning.
German unemployment rate down a smitchin.
The Swissy didn't react in the same way and I missed a perfectly good entry off the DP.
This should have been the only pair (of my set) that I was looking at this morning, having quickly condemned the others. My awareness was not up to speed and my reaction time to the market was slow.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE...... (if you see it at all)
Price has since dropped to 9320 support region.
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My bias is bearish but cautious as the world comes back from the holidays.
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At the end of every week I hope to be able to review my trading by using this website : https://www.fxstat.com/
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A little bit messy but it got there in the end.
Asian session very quiet creating a tight overnight range. Approaching European session price keeping close to pivot, I'm looking for a breakout higher. Long order placed just above the pivot, SL on the other side of the range.
Initial break looks good but as price comes back below pivot and back into the range this looks like I should have gone for a fade.
Plan your trade, trade your plan....... and sweat a bit. This testing of nerve is one part of trading that used to crack me open like a nut. I now have displacement activities to help....like make tea, write journal and rules like, not stare at screen thinking you can influence anything unless you possess special powers.
Price breaks pivot, retests pivot. Breaks resistance, retests as support and gathers buyers at the end of the morning to move higher.
TP@ R1, price breaks previous 15m swing and NY opening continues the move breaking the 38fib. Stop loss moved up under resistance with a bullish pinbar.
(not on chart) 50% fib hit, TP2 hit @R2, in the ADR zone 130-140pips, 1.5540 resistance.
All out.
Next week I'm logging into the real account and will continue recording the consequence of that folly.
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Price tightening it's range and leaving this pattern in it's wake on the 4hr chart.
Whatever the reason, trend exhaustion, consolidation before continuation, or possible reversal the end result is often a breakout. Go for it Asia.
Not my time to trade but interesting to see what develops.
Taking the Blinders Off the Trading Mind
in Psychology
Posted
Inventing a game doesn't entitle you to anything other than being recognised as 'the inventor of the game', and it's not true that England can't win a damn thing.
The England team are the current ICC World Twenty20 champions having won the 2010 ICC World Twenty20 and are the current holders of the Ashes, which is the Test match series contest between England and Australia and which has been played since the 1882–83 Australian season. The team is currently in sixth place in the ICC ODI Championship and, as of August 2011, are the top ranked Test side in the world. Wikipedia.
I could go on about outstanding players like Botham, Gooch, Stewart, and more recently the likes of Flintoff...... but I won't
Mitsubishi would you like to offer up a time when you considered things were better, or do you consider that the rot set in about the time of your birth.