PrymeTyme

aweosme just awesome ! are you in a kind of flow state while *surfing* like that ?

I would pick Tails,Tails,Tails I just change one flip based on your decision So theoretically i need just one flip right But then again both sequences have an equal chance To appear

HI Niko what we see now , is Indecision! wich means we should stay on the sideline , for the time beeing and only tarde the extremes , (red squares) as we dont want to trade in the middle of all that (blue square) indecision ,, wich would make us a part of a playball.... what do we know thus far ? well we see that price isnt able to break below support , even on high vol. but price also aint able to make significant upward progress waht makes the indecision quite clearly is the Hinge that formed! (pink) therefore , we just watch how that plays out ! cheers

Analysis from: 15.01 EU M5 Background: in the overnight session (15th) , we all ready notice that the selling pressure is increasing thus the selling waves are more distinct then the buying waves , in the earlie London session , we attempted a rallie towards resistance , but failed to reach it m thus formed a Lower High , wich led to another selloff , eventually breaking support , price then grinded its way back to broken support but failed to stay above it and formed a hinge where price dropped hard to the downside , in a climactic way high volume , forming a potential selling climax ? however the big high vol downbar , is a red flag and thusfar counts as weakness , however if the selling climax holds true, we might see strenght returning at its lows , or slightly higher till then this market is weak , Notes: Broken Support Potential SC Potential Supply Channel Weak Signs of strength: Pot SC Bigger Pic. UpTrend Signs Of weakness: Broken Support Selling Pressure is high LowRisk: Short HighRisk: Long Key levels ,above current price : 33374 - PPZ broken support + HMP 33639 - MP 33937 - Resistance Key levels ,below current price : 32948 - pot. support 32794 - broken res. 32648 - mp 32483 - support

a LiL HomeWork for tomorrow Analysis from: 14.01.2013 EU 5min Background: price found resistance , and formed a range , whereas at the begining of the range the selling waves are more distinct then the buying waves but this changes at A and B where we have increasing activity (volume) coming in at support , and we hold that level (A) and even form a higher low (B) , from that point on there is a change in behaviour where the buying waves are more distinct then the selling waves , till the springboard action at the pot. MP of the range , however price advanced on dimnishing vol , ie. not much selling going on atm. nevertheless we found resistance yet again.. wich we can conclude that we might stay in the range for the time beeing , till the cause for the next move ,is generated .. but the recent action is slightly bullish as well as the background, but in this case we only trade the edges of S and R Notes: Range forming ? recent action indicates strenght background is strong only trade the edges Signs of strength: Uptrend Volume at Support , Level holding springboard not much supply Signs Of weakness: Resistance beginning of the range selling pressure was great Lower Highs LowRisk: HighRisk: Key levels ,above current price : 33906 - Resistance 34045 - Swing High 34334 - MP Key levels ,below current price : 33638 - MP (pot.) 33373 - Support 32948 - Broken Resistance

Analysis from: 13.01.2012 / Eur/Usd H1 Background: with the recent signs of strenght (SOS) we have a confirmed strong market atm. the next hurdle to overcome is a major resistance level of a big range (33754) , the actual reaction also holds true to the recent strenght, however a correction might apply and in this case , may invite to longs therefore Longs are Low risk and shorts are high risk Notes: Trading at Major resistance , Strong Market Signs of strength: Bigger Picture Uptrend (daily) High Vol Upbars No Real Correction Signs Of weakness: None LowRisk: Long HighRisk: Short Key levels ,above current price : (problems with MT4 History Charts ) 33754 - Maj. Resistance 34313 - MP 34829 - Resistance 35187 - PPZ Key levels ,below current price : 32948 - Broken Resistance 32794 - Broken Resistance 32645 - MP 32483 - Support 32331 - PPZ 32219 - MP 32099 - PPZ 31922 - PPZ ---------------- Execution (Journal) Journal from 14.01.2013 time stamps -1h on broker (chart) we traded right thru resistance at 33754 on a good volume and up bar , the actual retest looks like the level is holding 08:37 the resistance level 33754 isnt holding and got obsolete 09:01 the selling pressure increases due to the increasing selling pressure from 33574 a short on a retest with following specs would be anticipated , but the risk is still high fro shorts and such a position wil get managed tight 09:08 short 337XX entry 33803 SL 3357 FTA 3350 TA 33373 TP ------------------ OTOH a long position could be anticipated on the MP 33733 if the buying overcomes the selling in one form or the other specs are below , specs might change due to the way we trade towards this level and its PA behaviour long 33733 entry 33198 SL 3350 FTA 33754 TA 3400 TP (swing high of the day) ---------------- we have some evidence of a stopping action a lil climactic in nature 09:20 and price attempts a rallie , it depends on how this rallie plays out (forms) and how price acts at or near our anticipated entry (337XX) to take a short the small rallie got cut off quickly and the three bar rallie was weak, the selling pressure continues 09:26 ------------- price reacted on a MP 3350 of a small 5min friday range 09:30 i drew in a supply channel on m1 09:34 we made a lower high and a lower low after a shortening of the downward thrust , price barely reacted at the supply line of the channel , and left the channel 09:40 its interressting to note that the shortening of the downward thrust happened at the small range MP 33500 where the selling pressure , was declining in form of the volume behaviour , and price made no further downside progress, so sellers are done for the time beeing, but still we have weakness in the most recent background -------------------------------- after a rallie wich has a series of higher lows thou , we formed a lower high , but the accompanied selling was on declining (low) volume 10.00 and we formed yet another higher low , 10:02 it does look that we form a range 10:10 (hinge?) --------------------------------------- there is the break out t o the upside 10:26 the rallie towards 33754 (res) is strong thou , lets see if supply hits the market . in order to short for now we poked thru teh resistance, ,10:38 traded back below it , but the PA doesent looks convincing to short 10:41 the current selling is rather weak , and that at a resistance level doesent add to weakness , therefore , no short 10:45 -------------------------------- i do think about a long thou. as we might see a springboard in the making 10:49 specs: 337xx entry 33692 SL 3390 FTA 3403 TP i took that long 10:52 entry 1.33749 SL 1.33691 FTA 1.33900 PPZ TP 1.34000 --------- we got some signs of absorbtion 10:56 --------- All set . time to go to my nine to five EDIT : SL set to BE 11:13

Why not ?! I participate anyway! But boom years , are easymony

Analysis from: EU, 30.12.12 H1 Background: after a rallie , we trade within a range for quite some time , whereas the recent action within the range show signs of weakness , we tested the highs on a weak rallie , ie decreasing vol. and we failed to test the highs at the beginning of the range , we have two big drops on high vol. and bid down bars , whereas the rallies , are weak again.and end in hinges .., however the recent drop stopped at support , so the range is still in play. but we formed yet again a hinge.. at this at the MP of the range, (below) if it gets rejected we have yet another sign of weakness.. at the time beeing , shorts are low risk and longs high risk .. as the market shows weakness... Notes: A Sign of Weakness B Sign of Weakness series of LH / LLs Hinge at MP Weak rallies , Signs of strength: Uptrend Support Holds Signs Of weakness: High Vol. Drops Weak Rallies Below MP Lower Highs/Lows LowRisk: Short HighRisk: Long Key levels ,above current price : 1.32195 MP small Box 1.32305 MP Big box (Range) 1.32412 MP of Hinge 1.32608 Support of small box 1.32660 MP of Small Box 1.32718 Resistance of Small Box / Support small Box (PPZ) 1.32771 MP small box 1.32814 Resistance of small Box 1.32952 Resistance of Big Box (Range) Key levels ,below current price : 1.32099 Support of small box / MP of small box (PPZ) 1.31922 Support Small Box 1.31812 MP of Hinge 1.31732 Support Big Box (Range) / Resistance of small box (PPZ) 1.31602 MP of small box 1.31486 suppor of small box 1.31306 resistance of small box 1.31094 MP of small box

some running comments on a trade * i just made and managed in EU . have fun.. *(before i took it and while i was in it) (it may be messy but hey it was while it happened on M1 so bare with me ) key level : 1.32099 after a series of higher highs/Lows.. strong rallie bars. and a shakeout we traded with strrnght in the background torwards this key level(1.32099) , where a demand bar formed right at/ torwrads the key level therefore shorts dont come into play.. ,, we will wait and see if we breach it clearly and wait for a retest where we look for a long entry.. ,,.. we allready breached it on good volume and good looking upbars.. a retest is anticipated.. , we trade torwards a MP of small box within the range.. also on high vol. and strong rallie bar ,, ie. demand. and strenght has been confirmed, . a retest of 1.32099 will be used as an long entry where the SL is placed at the low of a 2bar (1min ) hinge.. #@1.32056 the FTA is the MP @1.32195 , after succesfull breach we pull SL to BE+ next after that is the low of a mini demandchannel 1.32240 and its MP 1.32275 just shy our target Backup is 1.32099 (entry) level target 1.32305 the MP of the big box(range) the actual reaction is also on dimnishing vol. and small sized downbars.. .. ie selling pressure is not a problem.. atm the approch torwards our entry level.. confirms.. our view.. of weak reaction no selling pressure .. against demand.. and strenght entered on a break of a pinbar.. .. SL is set,.. we trade torwards the lows of the PB .. where our Backup is .. the vol is still decreasing.. i have the feeling that the sl is in danger .. as its really tight and we allready breachd the lows of the PB... small hinge fromed (1min) ... may get shaken out.. still no demand coming in.... fucking close call!!! nice but small rallie bar... now the level of 1.32099 has to bee taken out.. 1.32099 has to hold.. or else we form a lower high... and my Sl will get in danger again- there u go lower high,,, and price is on its way to my SL again..... .. ummm might see a small springboard. if we make a higher low.. thou... lets see... still no real signs of weakness thou... just bad timing,, but ok.. entry was justified.. if i get shaken out i may get a nother chance.... yep looks like a small hinge (springboard ) forms... at the key level of 1.32099 wich ever way it may breakout it will happen on good momentum... odds are in favour to the upside thou.. (backround) there u go.. breakout to the top but not that hard and good.. but still thou... we are above 1.32099 .. current action at my entry looks like asborbtion... `*** still sellers arround... now we have some activity.. and the result isnt in favour of my entry sellers where able to keep price below,,, and we are trading back to the key level 1.32099 wich holds for now..... may act as springboard ? cmon runs does stops above the smal UT..!!! 45mins.. till data release (pending home sales) activity comin in.... highest vol.. since mins.. result .. narrow range... downbar.. not bearish thou.. as we are holding gains...! actually we made a series of higher lows.. thus far... looking like a springboard action... still all actions that took place are in favour of my position thou.. even taking the heat.. puke bears , puke all right price grinds its way up to the recent high.. wheeras if we take it out i will pull SL to BE there ya go .. break thru FTA .. and recent high.. pull SL to BE+ TP is @ 1.32305 Jobs done

A Merry X-Mas also from me to you Lab! and a happy and succesfull New Year !! :beer::beer:

here is another retail edge so to speak Trading Size Huh? yea , retailers dont have to worry about liquidity (providers) (takers) as its quite a differnt ball game if u trade 5 or 10 contracts or 1000 contracts .. , right ? institutionals do have to take that fact into consideration when opening (accumulating) or offsetting (distribution) a position! ... as they dont want to bid up there own buying .. retailers dont have to worry about that guess what?! .. institionals more often then not fade breakouts . ie trade against it.. why ? they need the liquidity to offset or open a position .. how ? well... lets say we breakout of resistance we have some Stop Loss orders from bears there.. wich get triggered .. we have some bulls who have some limit orders up there and some long market orders coming in all at once... ie scared plus fresh new money coming in at the same time... jackpot for instutionals who offset a position in this demand.. nice.. move.. u see thy have to execute and tarde in a whole different way then average joe... they do play games aswell.. to get what they want.. and they are carefull aswell.. u know if the chief tarder says to its trading floor .. we need to buy X contracts of instrument Y on an average price of Z.. for whaterver reason.. the traders know what to do .. to accumulate the position.. the execute there orders .. in such a way .. to satisfy the chief.. and take into consideration .. the merket mechanics. and there participants... and maybe bank some profits .. for themselfes along the way.. (execution tarders) example.. (one of manny) we trade at support some the bid side shows size (market looks strong) ***** and all of a sudden the bids get pulled and the offer side gets bigger and we see the remainig bids get hit .. we break down (the market looks weak) SL of weak bulls get hit ,bull scalpers puke, weak bears jump abborad.. the increased supply .. is enough to fill teh allready placed bid orders at the lows (institution) while at the same time downwards a execution trader placed some contracts of its own pocket along the way.. wich got filled at the begining of this action.... and all of a sudden as selling pressure reduces and the insituion got there contracts they wanted.. they buy the remaing offers at the lows,, while at the same time the execution trader placed its offers on the way up.. .. and now we see size coming in on the bid aswell.. ie .. strenght is returning.. now the weak bears puke the way up..back above support an fill the orders of the execution trader.. wich banked a profit .. .. and then nothing happens.. for quite some time... As Both partys are happy .. the institution as they got waht they wanted on good prices .. and the execution trader who made a quick bonus ... just doing his job.. ***** at this stage the execution tarder may put some offers from his pocket in wich got hit by weak bulls due to the current strong looking market.. while the weak bears, SLs, fill his Bids below support for some extra cash those crooks do retailers have to worry about size ? liquidity ? .. not really cheers

HI i didnt know where to post this ... and as we talked about XLF on this thread allready i post it here.. as it reveals a perefect example on how to judge the market by its own action! we see two scenarios both are absorbtion but both come in different shapes.. but still tell teh same story ! A good example on Judging the market by its own action .. lets look at price action or price behaviour on this example.. its cool as it happened back to back on XLF both times its absorbtion but on H1 it comes in two different shapes..nevertheless u can say that 1 and 2 are both the same situations ,if u just judge what price is capable to do and what not and how it behaves.. lets first start with a black and white example of an absorbtion , how does that look like ? in a picture perfect example, wich does happen.. but as we know the markets arent black and white all the time an absorbtion first off happens at resistance and instead of price bouncing of sharply we trade at resistance for quite some time and we kinda hang at resistance , we dont bounce off.. we stay there .. and after a while price starts to make higher lows and highs .this accompanied on increaseing vol .. is a sign of absorbtion.. it can either happen in the form of several bars .. wich make higher highs/lows and closes or in small buyng and selling waves .. wich behave the same way.. depends on the timeframe.but the story is the same.. sometimes it reveals itself more clearly when u zoom in... here is the hourly chart of XLF lets start with absorbtion 1 , on first sight it doesent really look like a (picture perfect) absorbtion.. but now we judge the price action or behaviour.. and make a conlusion.. Absorbtion 1 first off as we traded into a pot. resistance (MP of a bigger Box) we never really bounced off hard .the first High Volume occures on a downbar wich even closes at its lows (A).. signs of sellers coming in ? yea.. but look what happend after that.. the first bar after (A) ,volume tappers of and we attempt another rallie to res the 2nd bar (B) even dips below the low of the bar (A) but volume is still tappering of and we close above the low of bar A.. not a real sign of weakness.. more off no follow thru.. then the next two bars nothing rellay happens.. but with the recent action in the backgound and that we trade at res. we would expect selling.. but that dont happen.. so its pretty much likely that most of the hanging supply got allready absorbed on bar (A). and the next thing we recognize is. that as volume increase at the end of the absorbtion.. the bars make higher lows / Highs and closes (X).. wich is evidence of absorbtion and an clue that bulls have taken over... then comes the breakout on high vol... into another res. level.. (smaller box MP) Absorbtion 2 here the picture is a lil clearer as we have evidence of higher highs and higher lows at resistance.. and if we are able to make such a steady advance at a potential res. then we have signs of absorbtion.. this action also occures at increasing vol.. this is almost a picture perfect example of an absorbtion..(Y) -------------------------------------------------------------------- on this chart we zoomed in to TF15.. and u can clearly see that absorbtion 1 does actually behave almost in the same way as absorbtion2 on the H1 chart.. just to let u know.. that if u cant see it in first place it doesnt mean that it doesent happen.. we can zoom in .. to get a clearer picture , but it is not necesseray .. i mean the closest look u can take is from a tick chart... and the same scenario as seen on the H1 chart could have happend on the tick chart,,, but with the knowledge on how to judge the market and its action (price behaviourr) u know how to act.. we dont care off patterns and dont need to rely on them... we dont have to rely on the market and hope that it paints picture perfect shapes and patterns to recoginze on what state it is in at the moment.. we just need to judge and watch price.. what it is capabale of doing and what not.. taking into consideration vol. and the location where it happens.. thats all .. cheers

well my two cents... first off what is balance ? if there is a, lets say total balance then price doesent move .. ie. if there is enough buying against selling .. then price doesent move at all.. or trades in a narrow range.. trades are going off only at bid and ask.... now an imbalance occures when either supply or demand is increasing or outnumbering one or the other.. and if the imbalance has full effect price moves X ticks.. till it finds balance again.. ie. a fair value... How to spot imbalance ? simple answer only after the fact! but some clues can be made before the imablance and and in wich favour (side) it may occure.. but that depends.. are u looking at charts or the DOM (depth of market) keep in mind Imbalances can come and evolve in many shapes... for charts.. a some clues of an imbalance in favour of the bulls (demand) might be Higher highs/lows, Strong Rallies(buying pressure) , weak reactions, path of least resistance ie. effort vs. result = not much defence of the bears .. reactions at resistance might get weaker the more we test the res.. ie.. we bounce off less and less... .. not much trading to the downside.. etc... or u might see that supply gets absorbed at res.. etc.. how to spot an absorbtion.. well if price sits at resistance.. wher it has been previously rejected hard and with good momentum.. and now tardes at the level without or with less frequent reactions.. and we make a steady progress thru res... ie higher highs/lows.. and closing of the bars.. then thats your clues... also we have to talk about fair (balance) and unfair (imbalance) prices... where an unfair price gets rejected .. as for example the selling pressure is not existant while .. demand at the current level is high.. or at least higher then what the bears have to offer.. but then again .. all these moves can only be seen after the fact.. thats why we take risk! after enough clues have been seen..! but like john said.. intraday traders should put as many odds in their favour as possible.. and even then.. its not 100% safe... thats where the risk management comes in place hope this helped...

tooo short .........

how would u position yourself on any of those two charts ? just that u know one is Longterm and one is intraday but both are the same instrument .. whats the difference ? u can make or lose money with both.. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us

hi the retail edge is.... retailers dont have to be in the markets all the time ! while institutions have to be in the markets all the time .. thats the biggest edge... retailers dont have to satisfy customers.. they work for themselfes... and what better market conditions could a daytrader have then a directional market.. wheter it be up or down..? even consolidation ... if it plays out all day ? who cares about direction ? . if ur only conceren should be how to position yourself on any specific market condition ? .....

just recieved my workstation yesterday .. whohoo! clean and simple... specs.: Intel Core i7-3770 4x 3.40Ghz 8GB DDR-3 2X180 SSD Raid Harddisks up to 12 Monitors 2X 23" Dell Business Monitors surge protected power strip

quote from the book An Overbought Position Line is that line which is drawn parallel to a support line and passes through the first point of resistance (rally top) intervening between two successive points of support in on up trend and thats how i see it aswell.. overbought levels only in uptrends... KISS

HI Predictor i like Reading the Tape /DOM and everything involved in it.. so i like your tool and video.. will study it more accurate later.. but for now i got some questions... you say u generate the orderflow columns by taking the buyers and substract the sellers , right ? ( 05:30min ) at the 06:15 min mark we can see that 1 contract hits the offer@81.00 and the orderflowcolumn increase by 1 contract from 1900 to 1901 .. isnt that a lil contradicting from what u said on 05:30min ? .. or am i getting something wrong here ? as we hit the offer it was a market buy..but the value increases in that orderflow column.. shouldnt it decrease ? as we have a red column ie. more selling (hitting the bid) was going on... so if we hit the offer on that level.. the value should decrease ? or does that number(1900) comes from adding all traded contracts on that level together lets say 1000 contracts hit the bid and 900 the offer ,, therefore the column is red as we had more selling going on ? and the 1 contract wich hits the offer makes it 901 offers hit ? but the selling was still bigger... namely 1000 to 901 sorry for my english.. and it may be the case that i didnt quite understood the mecanics behind your tool... ty cheers

an Addition to The XLF discussion compared to SP500 and Qs waht looks stronger ? the Qs have a nice decline and the recent Low is at a fromer support level of a range The SP500 fromed a tripple top and the recent low found support at the MP of a range The XLF made a higher low and somewhat attempts a rallie.. and the recent low found support above a former resistance of a range..actually at the old support of April so what Instrument looks stronger ? or at least acted stronger.. ? cheers

Aggree that the actual rallie doesent look strong per se, and i would agree that it would look weak ,.but only when we would trade into new high grounds on a uptrend.... and we have a lack off buying interrest to the upside.. hence the weak upside progress... but what i take into consideration here is that we trade torwards Res.(location) but we make higher highs (slightly) and higher lows.. yes the vol. is dimishing.. but i wouldnt consider that weak at a pot. resistance level... the bears need to show there hands.. now.. and thus far .. a springboard is in the making.. i also would only consider a long at a break out + retest to the upside.. look how price is preparing itselff for the next move.. and i still say the symptoms are strong.. as the first HL is off a former support of a big consolidation... and teh actual HL( if it holds ofcourse) would be on the MP off that conso. thats actually all signs of a springboard in the making. we dont react that hard off resistance.. and price has a rather low effort to rallie... also notice that volume.. increase on the Lows but the important levels hold thusfar..

very good ! i like the intro to your post .. ok.. now lets take into consdieration my POV .. and some volume.. start with the daily TF .. we can see that i drew in some boxes and a PPZ and with PPZ i mean pivotale price zone .. wich actually means a level where resistance and support kinda flipp flopped arround.. ie. this level acted as res. and supp. several times.. we notice that we make some HH and HL torwards the psychological level of 16.. ie torwards a pot. res.. i for myself have whitnessed such scenarios manny times and its acting looks like a springboard behaviour.. where supply gets absorbed torwards resistance,,, we also notice that we droped below a support level (box) and traded back above it.. within a small interval... wich could indictate a temp. shakeout... sofar the bullish symptoms are intact.. and strenghtended.. on the daily TF however a reaction on the MP of the box.. could be considered weak.. if we break support again.. OTOH a reaction (bounce) of the support level could be considered strong... and may be the first clue of absorbtion @ resistance.... on the weekly TF .. we take into consdideration volume... we have the evedince of a small seling climax. wich refuses to trade below a MP and formes a pot. HL ... the following rallie bar.. occures on small vol. indicating a lack of supply .. (effort vs. result) .. wich is an indicator of supply was absorbed within the SC at the time beeing.. .. thusfar.. this instrument shows signs of strenght.. and this at a critical level.. we may whitness a springboard scenario... but taking action here on the longside.. would only be justified after a retest of the last MP of the box.. or even the res. of that box.. but i wouldnt think of shorting this.. atm.... as the signs of strenght are still in play...

a recent action on EU (note the vol. on this chart is Real Vol not Tick its Lots traded on LMAX) so we do have Preliminary Support followed by a Selling Climax .. where an automatic raction occured (technical rallie) then the secondary Test wich makes this a SC at first place .. wich happens on low vol then we can see that price rallies on little effort (dimnishing vo.) showing that sellers are pretty much done .. for the time beeing .. due to the SC where alot of supply/sellers got served/washed out.. etc.. then we have another retest of teh lows.. this time the vol is higher then on teh first ST but we make a higher high.. ie, there are buyers confronting sellers and the at least equal worthy , if not gaining the upper hand.. atm.. Click Attached Thumbnail for bigger pic.. cheers

might be of interrest to some... Springboard in the making on EU? just watch how price dances arround previous support / Potential resistance wich happens to be 1.3000 .. we hug that level and form higher lows .. and it does look like a hinge in the making... why i drew in a bullish scenario ? .. just simply the fact that the most recent rallie was the strongest we whitnessed in months/years .. we trade at a potential resistance but we done react hard on it, we hug the 1.3000 , sellers seem to have hard time keeping price below 1.3000 .. and that action at a potential resistance doesent look bearish...

what chat ? i wanna chat too nice weekend yall !