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thrunner

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Posts posted by thrunner

  1. Posted

    Again, if you talk with thinkorswim about their autotrade service, they put your money into trades where direction DOES NOT MATTER.
    No disrespect to TG, but from personal experience I would be careful with TOS (Thinkorswim). They are a brokerage that can autotrade based on signals from about 50 newsletters, not all of them reputable. There is no good, easy and independent way to find out which newsletter is profitable. Their autotrade system is also buggy and hard to use when I tried it last year. Some trades which I decided to exit manually was not exited completely in autotrading, so that I ended up net short or net long on what I thought was a flat position.

     

    I suspect they also have a conflict of interest with most newsletters in that they may provide lower cost or free trades and other benefits to the principals of such newsletter. In return, perhaps some newsletters tend to have a lot of autotrade signals and generate autotrading commissions for TOS.

     

    They also use a simulated stop in their platform, as many brokerages do, so that on rare occasions you get stopped out when the exchange data do not support that stop out. To top it off, they also got my W9 TIN number wrong, so now I have to file another.

     

    I am no longer with TOS. Good luck with your endeavor.

  2. Posted

    I am no EL expert here, but I think you should try the CountIf function:

    example based on builit in MACD LE strategy of TS with added CountIf; you may need to play with Value1 and Condition1 test length to get the logic right.

    Also search for this function in TS help and TS forum. 

    inputs:  FastLength( 12 ), SlowLength( 26 ), MACDLength( 9 ) ;
variables:  MyMACD( 0 ), MACDAvg( 0 ), MACDDiff( 0 ) ;

MyMACD = MACD( Close, FastLength, SlowLength ) ;
MACDAvg = XAverage( MyMACD, MACDLength ) ;
MACDDiff = MyMACD - MACDAvg ;

[color="red"]Condition1 = MACDDiff crosses below 0;
Value1 = CountIF(Condition1, 10); [/color] // CountIF returns A numeric value containing the number of true test condition occurrences for the current bar.

if [color="Red"]Value1>0[/color] and CurrentBar > 2 and MACDDiff crosses over 0 then { CB > 2 check used to
avoid spurious cross confirmation at CB = 2 (at CB = 1, MyMACD and MACDAvg will be
the same) }
Buy ( "MacdLE" ) next bar at market ;


{ ** Copyright (c) 2005 TradeStation Technologies, Inc. All rights reserved. ** 
 ** TradeStation reserves the right to modify or overwrite this strategy component 
    with each release. ** }

  4. Posted

    This is a free newsletter I get from Redoptions.com . He's very methodical
    Here is the site: https://www.redoption.com/create_a_login.php It makes a big difference in leaving out the 's' ;) otherwise you would get a chess site. I wanted to say leave the last 's' out for savings, but that is not quite true as each advisory seems to cost $20
    RED Option is $20 per month (30 day period), per advisory. Daily commentary, education, and expert support are all free

    It makes sense to use a free newsletter, but you often get a piling on effect a la Jim Cramer, but perhaps it is what you are looking for in a momentum play. As usual, I assume the subscribers get the first dibs in the stock picks so I would be careful as well about these newsletters, do your own due diligence.

  6. Posted

    You would expect Goldman to figure this out before losing money. Ive had it with funds blaming liquidity problems, other quant funds, etc... Didnt we all learn in trading that we must be reponsible for our actions?

    .......... Should be a whole lot of fun for private traders. You get to take the big boys (funds) money!

    If only if it is that easy, GS had one of the best quarters ever .... the press has a way of reporting at a time when it is the worst to take a position based on the reporting .. that is by the time the retail reader gets the news and acts, it is usually the time to fade (trade against) the retail. The only thing you should do is to trade the price action and not what some press or guru says is the news.

     

    Commentary: Goldman Sachs textbook case of contrarian analysis in action

    By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch

    Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Sep 21, 2007

    ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- The time to buy, Nathan Rothschild famously said, is when the blood is running in the streets.

    But how to put this apocryphal advice to actual use? What does it look like in practice?

    For an answer you need look no further than what Goldman Sachs Group Inc. did in mid August, when it looked like the capital markets might dry up completely and the stock market appeared to many to be on the verge of a meltdown.

    The blood most definitely was running in the streets.

    So what did Goldman do? It invested $2 billion (that's billion with a "b") of its own money in one of its hedge funds that was hemorrhaging. See Aug. 13 story

    The payoff? Its $2 billion investment has grown by a cool $320 million in the short time that has elapsed since then a 16% return in just one month.

    In the newsletter arena, the closest analogy to Goldman's contrarian coup, at least that I can think of, is what the late Al Frank did on Oct. 20, 1987. Frank was the editor of The Prudent Speculator, and his letter's model portfolio, like most hedge funds today, was highly leveraged. (The newsletter is edited today by John Buckingham, who employs much less leverage than did Frank.)

    And Oct. 20, 1987, of course, was the day after Black Monday, the worst single-day crash in U.S. stock market history, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling some 22%. Frank's highly leveraged portfolio fell 57% on that day alone, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest's calculations.

    That's a whole lot of blood.

    What did Frank do? Far from running for the hills, which was what almost everyone else was doing, he urged subscribers to buy.

    That took guts, and his newsletter's ranking was amply rewarded for having them.

    Since then, the Prudent Speculator is far and away in first place for performance among the newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. Over the nearly 20 years since Frank's post-Crash buy advice, the newsletter's portfolios have gained 3,857%, in contrast to "just" 825% for the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index On an annualized basis, this is the difference between 20.4% and 11.9%.

    To be sure, opportunities such as the one facing Al Frank in October 1987, or the one facing Goldman Sachs last month, don't come along every day. An integral part of the job of being a contrarian is being patient, waiting for those occasions in which panic has come to dominate investor emotions and brought prices down to fire sale levels.

    Being a contrarian is not for the faint of heart. But outsized profits can be earned by those who have the fortitude. End of Story

    Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

  8. Posted

    Thank you Jerry for the summer lessons :) I came back from vacation found that you have really done some interesting work. My question for this video is you said "there is no reason why it {target} shouldn't hit the 2nd standard deviation, the volatility of the market says it should". How exactly are you calculating this? It seems to newbie and me that 95% of the prices have occurred within SD2, so going beyond 95% is not a high probability trade. Are you basing this on skewness calculation? (eg, higher the skewness, the greater probability of exceeding SD2). Is there a skewness risk involve in this trade? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skewness_risk

  9. Posted

    Don't use untrusted software.

    Try Apple Quicktime here:

    http://www.apple.com/quicktime/download/

    It runs .swf files without any problem.

    P.S. Get the version without ITunes - you need the standalone QuickTime player for this to work properly.

    Well, QuickTime is a 20MB bloatware download that phones home at all times (check your firewall) and shows advertisements whether you want it or not by default on opening (hint: turn off player content guide). Adding insult to injury, QT (7.0.3) w iTunes doesn't play swf properly- the player slider time index is wrong and it will no longer play with sound after you slide the play past the end and then return slide to the beginning. As stated above, you'll need the standalone QT to work properly. Quicktime is truly beginning to be worst and more annoying than Microsoft media player.

    There is an opensource Flash player but unfortunately it is in alpha. The two swf players posted previously are from two independent but well established houses and they are free, small (600KB), no ads, doesn't phone home. They are basically simple wrappers around the Adobe Flash.ocx. No, I have no association with either firms and I have no position in Apple stocks either.:p

  10. Posted

    Thank you for sharing, Jerry. For those having problems playing swf files automatically or wish to have some controls over the playback, you should try these freeware (small 600K downloads):

    swf player: http://www.browsertools.net/downloads/SWFOpenerSetup.exe

    less features player: http://www.globfx.com/downloads/swfplayer/

    BTW, Jerry, for those wishing to replicate some of your studies, are you using Ensign software charting and wrote your own VWAP and PVP functions? and are those available somewhere? Thanks.

  11. Posted

    AbeSmith,

    Don't let all these negative talks about personality, suitability, ability, 'this thread is a joke' etc get you down. Even some of the great traders have blown out many good size accounts as newbies (yes, even the aforementioned LBR, who has mentored to dozens if not hundreds).

    You really need to get more reading on this subject under your belt, which as a lawyer, you should have no problem acquiring. You should also read this article to know how difficult this game can be: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/winners-and-losers-of-th-zero-1894.html

    After all that reading, you will get a better idea whether you could hack it in this game (most newbies, perhaps 80% or more can't).

    After that, if you decide you want to give it a go, master a few setups and practice, practice, practice with a good simulator. IMHO, IB does not have a good simulator, try other platforms more suitable for futures trading.

  13. Posted

    06-13-2007, 10:23 PM

    ant

    Premium Trader

     

    Join Date: Sep 2006

    Posts: 238

     

    Re: Market Profile Plus for TradeStation

     

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     

    Sorry guys, it looks like the latest version of the indicator expired earlier than expected. As mentioned in my previous post, I did streamline this version to make it significantly faster, but didn’t check the expiration date. As most of you know, I maintain multiple versions of these indicators.

     

    Since Oct. 2006, I have made my Market Profile® indicators for TradeStation available exclusively at Traders Laboratory. Over time, I have incorporated many of the features requested by TL users. However, working on these indicators has taken a lot of time and effort, and has taken time away from other trading-related activities. As a result, I decided a short while ago to stop working on indicators, except for making minor fixes. This was a prudent decision as a full-time trader, because the indicators were a big distraction from my main focus – Trading. So unfortunately, I have winded down my work with indicators and will not be renewing my Market Profile indicators anymore. I know some users will be disappointed, but I‘m sure most will understand where I'm coming from and I'm confident that those that have been using MP+ will find a suitable replacement. Those that develop their own indicators, especially indicators as complex as Market Profile, can attest to the fact that it requires a major investment of time to develop robust indicators reliable enough to use in "live" trading. I guess that's why most people do not give away their hard work for free. Anyway, I hope that people have benefited from these indicators over the past 9 months, and I hope that in some small part they have helped improve your trading. All the best with your trading!

     

    Regards,

    Antonio

     

    Market Profile Plus for TradeStation ©2006 Antonio, All Rights Reserved.

    The other thread has been closed so it is logical to make a short remark here: There is no reason to be sorry Ant, I think we all appreciate your efforts and look forward to your always helpful and generous contributions in the future. You whetted out appetite with some of your open code and indicators. I am sure those interested in MP can further their studies with the myriad of resources out there.

     

    Regarding to MP indicators and code for TS, here are some that may be helpful:

    free TS (need forum access)

    https://www.tradestation.com/Discussions/Topic.aspx?Topic_ID=57275

     

    free open Price Distribution

    Here

     

    $150 Price Distribution open code TS

    http://www.theswingmachine.com/Price_Distrib_Anal/PriceDist_Main.htm

     

    $249 non disclosed code TS

    1st Trading Tools - Technical Analysis Indicator Purchases

     

    EU400 first yr, EU200 second, third etc, nondisclosed code

    Market Profile

  14. Posted

    I found the link for the free Online-PDF-File Master the Markets, hope, it is still working. I'm just reading the book
    Probably doesn't work any more, but the CBOT webinar is working, just need to sign up CBOT - Detecting High Probability Turning Points Using Volume Spread Analysis
    Detecting High Probability Turning Points Using Volume Spread Analysis

    View recording.

    * Viewable with Windows Media Player 10 or better, Version 9 Mac Media Player * (Download latest version).

     

    Most traders believe there are two ways to look at the market - fundamental analysis and technical analysis. This seminar will introduce traders to a third way - volume spread analysis. Join Todd Krueger of TradeGuider, with a very special appearance by Tom Williams, the creator of Volume Spread Analysis, as they demonstrate how to incorporate Volume Spread Analysis into trading CBOT mini-sized Dow futures. Sponsored by Infinity Brokerage.

    An introduction to Volume Spread Analysis.

    The benefits of understanding hidden professional buying/selling with volume analysis.

    Using mutiple time frames effectively to confirm market direction.

    Question and answer session.

    About the Speakers

    Tom Williams, formerly a very successful US Syndicate Trader. He retired from professional trading at the age of 40, taking up a number of commercial ventures during this period. However, Tom's real ambition was to help traders operate in a more informed way, and this idea formed the basis of his software development company, Genie Software Ltd, 14 years ago. Tom has spent many years refining the signals in his flagship product, VSA (The forerunner to TradeGuider). Apart from his own expertise, the company also relies heavily on customer feedback to enhance and develop its products.

     

    Todd Krueger's interest in investing and trading accelerated after earning his Series 3 license in 1985. His passion for trading has grown immensely over the years and he has invested heavily in educating himself on being a better trader. Todd was a previous customer of VSA and believed so strongly in the power of the software that he purchased a shareholding in TradeGuider Systems, LLC. Out of all the trading courses Todd's taken, and all the trading software packages that he's owned, there is one common denominator that he has learned that is essential to being a profitable trader; your approach to the market must be your own, the approach has to fit your individual personality and trading style.

     

    Frankly, I get more out of reading this thread than watching the webinar. Everytime I look at VSA I can't help but wonder if there is something missing in the whole concept...:confused:
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