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bh_trade

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Posts posted by bh_trade

  1. Posted

    I'm little confused. I don't know what is the exact formula to calculate PVP. Infact, I have ensign trial, Ninjacator.com Volume at price indicator, Acme for ninja and amibroker indicator(VAP).

     

    All are giving different values? If anyone can suggest a reliable indicator or exact formula to calculate PVP for ninja or amibroker?

     

    Thanks.

     

    PVP is what it is: Peak Volume Price. Volume at price should provide the info, but I don't have Ninja so do not know if it would give you the correct historical info bar by bar or not but certainly it would be correct at end of day. I have seen indicators where it is estimated by assuming each price tick in a given bar has the same volume (ie total volume/total range) but the most correct way is to spit the data out by tick and aggregate the volume by price that way.

  4. Posted

    Scratch that question, Pacific time. I now see that indeed the negative divergence trade faded minimal heat from 1236 (to 1239ish) and also would have worked nicely.

     

    My apologies Do or Die for further cluttering your thread.

     

    FWIW I also see negative divergences against the rally back up to 1236. Ultimately the mkt rallied to 1244 before a noticeable pullback. Is that also a trade you would have taken?

  5. Posted

    FWIW I also see negative divergences against the rally back up to 1236. Ultimately the mkt rallied to 1244 before a noticeable pullback. Is that also a trade you would have taken?

     

    While we trade in much faster time frames than most of the references here, this morning, in ES, there was a classic double positive divergece in both the 8k & 5k volume bar charts.

     

    As everybody here knows we believe that divergences between price and the buying and selling forces that propels price can often indicate change.

     

    In the middle of the chart below you can see that as price (top window) makes a Lower Low, both the indicator of net trade and the indicator of the moving window of the balance of trade made Higher Lows which is referenced as a double positive divergence.

     

    This divergence was verified and duplicated in the 8k chart:

     

    Please click to enlarge image

    tpt665.jpg

     

     

    UrmaBlume

  6. Posted

    Dude, I think you've found the HG, cash advance the credit cards and lever up, the good life is only a few months of no-loss trading away.

     

    Doesn't any intelligent trader have an opinion on what might constitute a HG and weather you think this method may qualify? I had no intention of creating a HG. I only wanted a method that adjusted to the market real time and never lost money on a daily basis, (I succeeded) but after looking at a multitude of for sale products on the net, (none of which even come close to this method) I was wondering if I actually did. Thanks for all your interest and genuine support.

  7. Posted

    80% win rate? If u came up with said holy grail would think obtaining the "deep pockets" part isn't a problem. Unless of course avg loser = 4x avg winner like it usually is with such high probability systems.

     

    Siuya,

     

    You don't necessarily need deep pockets. To illustrate what I've outlined, imagine a system whereby:

    - You risk only 0.25% of capital (point #2)

    - Win rate is 80% (point #3)

     

    5 consecutive losing trades is less than 0.03% probability, and yet you'll still be in fairly good shape with an 8% drawdown. Doing monte carlo will also probably yield acceptable risk of ruin.

     

    Klotzki

  10. Posted

    Good post!

     

    I've often wondered why the small traders who frequent these forums gripe about quote flickering as it truly is irrelevent when it come to our execution needs.

     

    Hi gosu

     

    Being a small lot retail trader in my opinion puts you in a position where you can easily move yourself into and out of the markets with nearly no "unwinding" necessary. One of the few things I've read and held onto from Steidlmayers books was the idea of "trapped money."

     

    Essentially you are identifying a large participant on the wrong side of the market having to unwind an errant position. This type of activity is identified in the book, "Trading & Exchanges" by Larry Harris as "Dealers lose to well informed speculators because they end up being on the wrong side of the trade. Prices tend to move against their positions before they can trade out of them. All traders try to avoid trading with well informed speculators."

     

    He goes on to identify the successful speculator as an "informed trader who finds less well informed traders that are willing to lose to him"

     

    The retail trader has many more strategies and methods available to him just due to his sheer lack of size. A large trader has to add a liquidity factor to his method search that a small trader never has to worry about. In effect the larger the trade the more necessary the, "hoping." A retail trader never has to include liquidity in his method search and can always count on the market providing an optimal exit strategy regardless of success or failure. Unwinding a large trade can never have predictable results, it always effects the market around it and can lead to a loss even with a successful entry after calling the market right.

     

    More and more HFT has no effect on the retail trader. This game is being played over our heads, it's a liquidity game that has nowhere to go as more HFT enter the market. The only player effected by this would be someone who takes the DOM too seriously. Posting and then removing an order before getting filled has gone up nearly 400% over the last 10 years, why?

     

    Because more and more HFT are relying on the DOM as "expected liquidity," it's a stupid game of fruitless "hope" known as "quote flickering".

     

    It's a quick posting and removing of orders in order to confuse the algo of another HFT. Essentially confusing a computer by placing "expected liquidity" in front of another stupid computer and waiting to see them take the bait and become part of a much smarter algo trading strategy. The retail trader doesn't need to trust in the DOM because he will never need that type of "expected liquidity " in front of his trade. He can always enjoy a mastery over the other players who need to "hope" in more elements of the market working in their favor in order to make a profit.

  13. Posted

    I am also a "grandfathered" member, was active in the room during 2007-2008 so my experience in that room is admittedly quite stale. I would tend to agree with points 1-3 as I spent quite a bit of time testing his methods as mechanically as possible and found the results to be marginally positive over my test period- throw in real money, real emotions and results would likely worsen, but that's a separate debate. Point 4 seems over-emphasized. I was there when 4A happened and surely one cannot hold JP responsible for the extra-curricular activities of a member/moderator. Your closing sentence is also very presumptive. I was always of the opinion that JP was a successful trader but his success had less to do with market profile and more to do with good discipline and instincts learned from many years as a floor trader. If he charged each of the grandfathers a monthly fee to remain in the room (he does not) your argument that he earns a comfortable living from his training service in lieu of his trading *might* hold some water, but truthfully, it sounds like sour grapes and JP is a stand-up guy in my opinion.

     

     

    As a "grandfathered" member of his room I can offer my perspective:

     

    1. JP comes across as a very likeable guy

    2. He teaches his own trade setups and basic MP

    3. After carefully following his trades you will be breakeven at best and more than likely loser, he refuses to prove his own trading profitability

    4. He allows some members to pray upon other members

    A. One past member and moderator is in prison for running a "ponzi" scheme

    B. Another past moderator is currently being prosecuted by the SEC for running a "ponzi" scheme

    C. Several other members sell some sort of "mental" or psychological training, one of which even had a competing room using an entirely "bogus" method that was endorsed by the member currently in prison

    D. Another member currently has a competing room that resells his method again to other members- you pay JP to teach you then you can pay the other past member to teach you again

    E. A survey conducted by members to members reported less than 25% said they were profitable(this of course is not verified and relies on members reporting "truthfully")

    F. There seems to be an almost "cult" like following among some of his members, until they run out of money, of course

     

    It is obvious he doesn't make money trading but does earn a comfortable living from his training. If you are looking for some MP training and can protect yourself from the other "pitfalls" that can occur in his room, it might be for you.

  14. Posted

    A gentleman named dbntina has coded up the pvp for Tradestation. It is not as simple as plotting the indicator on your chart, you will have to insert a tick chart into your workspace, insert the indicator into it, then use the ade (all data everywere) utilities found on the TS forums to bring the actual pvp plot into the chart you intend to trade from. Check out the indicator section - I believe the indicator package and instructions are in there.

     

    Hey MetalHead, what chartingprogram are you using? Tradestation? If so, where did u get the VWAP and PVP code (I have vwap code already, looking for pvp)

     

    Thanks.

  15. Posted

    I tried Roy's stuff 6 or so years ago. Unless his indicators have changed, they are fantastic at telling you what you should have done in hindsight. His main cycle indicator looked like the holy grail on a chart until you saw it plot in real time and saw it make every false signal disappear.

     

    The reality of high dollar indicators is they are really no better than what is freely available on forums such as these. Save your money and study the markets instead.

  19. Posted

    I believe Trademaven addressed this point in their ET thread and they emulate tick/volume histograms using 1 minute bars. Not a perfect solution, but should be close, especially over larger cumlulative timeframes.

     

    slight deviation from the topic. Their software uses eSignal data and eSignal doesn't provide Tick data for one year. How they generate Volume at price data for one year? They must have some algorithm to generate Volume at Price data using Minute/daily data. The point is that the cumulative volume histogram on their charts is not based on true Tick data.

  20. Posted

    Consider yourself lucky then. Guess somebody has to win the lottery.

     

    I also have been using TS for a long time, but only as a broker during the last 2 years. I have often defended TS in the past, but I am done with that. Their data speed/stability seems to degrade with each passing month, and the frequency of freezeups seems to increase with each passing month. Suffice to say they need to get their act together or they will continue to lose customers.

     

     

    Well i've used TS for over two years now, and while they aren't perfect I have had no issues regarding data slowness, etc. Thats all a bunch of ET B.S. like most things over there are. In fact, they've done extensive upgrading recently to get even faster data.

     

    This debacle the other day was the first time i've ever experience anything like that.

     

  22. Posted

    I have often defended TS in the past but I am done with that. Their brokerage incompetence seems to grow with each passing quarter. I still like their charting, but the warts on the brokerage side are making me seriously consider a switch to Multicharts as well.

     

    TS as a broker is pretty useless, but their charting and datafeed is still useful to me, so I am keeping a minimal TS account and doing 10 trades/month.

    The most painless transition away from TS as a broker is probably to go Multicharts and IB. MC is >95% compatible with TS ESL and will support more brokers in the future : http://forum.tssupport.com/viewtopic.php?t=5419

  23. Posted

    1. More aggressive buyers or sellers

    2. Yes

    3. They are highly correlated

    4. Yes

    5. No, SP is pit traded, ES is electronic only

    6. No, electronic only

     

     

    I have read both the CBOT MP manual and Mind over Market. Here are a few questions I have relating to MP.

     

    1) Why does the ES move up or down?

     

    2) Doesn't the S&P move according to the movement of the 500 stocks in this market?

     

    3) Why does the ES (S&P), the YM (Dow), and the ER (Russel) all move in rhythm with each other?

     

    4) Doesn't the YM (Dow) and the ER (Russel) also move up or down accoding to the individual stocks represented in their markets?

     

    5) Isn't the ES traded in an auction in the "pit"?.

     

    6) Is the YM and the ER traded in an auction in the "pit"?

     

    Can someone help answer these questions for me? When these get answered, I have more. I was going to list them all on this post, but I would like to have these answered first, then I can move on to the next set of questions.

     

    I think that when all my questions get answered, it will help a lot of people understand really what is happening in the market.

     

    Please, please, just answer the 6 questions I have above. Trust me...there will be more.

    .

  24. Posted

    Pretty good understatement. Volume in that contract is anemic at best. I also like the tick value/range component of ER2 and tried trading a few 1 lots of EMD a few weeks ago and honestly, I didn't care for it much. Try watching it on an overnight session sometime, could drive an 18 wheeler sideways through the bid/ask spread. That contract has a long, long way to go if it is going to become the CME's replacement for The Russell.

     

     

    Volume need to pick up,...early morning was difficult. Will take more observations to get a better grip on my opinion.

  25. Posted

    And one on the Russell leading up, very constructive over next several months. Blasted to new multi-month highs today even as S&P and financials were lagging miserably.

     

     

    duzntmatr -

    there are many timing methods out there, none of them are solid and dependable because of the distortions that occur in the markets. If you are interested in timing, check out the post I have going called "timing methods", it'll at least get you started.

     

    Russell continues to outperform its brothers (or sisters). A retest of recent daily lows would likely be a good buy point for just about anything.

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