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ptunic
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Everything posted by ptunic
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This is regarding #1254, which we discussed a lateral that is itself a SOC. The lateral that starts on Feb 5 10:45 I believe is an example of something similar. (this one is actually a non- Lateral Drill conforming lateral, but similar in the sense it is a SOC and pt 3 is the forming bar). My chart for that day isn't finished yet but see attached. edit: in my chart that should be decreasing black, not decreasing red (eg point 1 just formed and is starting to head up) of the tape at 10:10 - 10:15. Wasn't trying to show anything tricky, just a typo
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I'm going to take a stab at this. I would say yes to 1) and 3) but No to 2). There is a lack of needed context here. Is this already inside some other lateral? Is that at the beginning or ending of day which might affect the volume bars? However if we know this is middle of day, not in the FOMC or other unusual event, and not inside a bigger lateral itself, in other words in normal context if there is such a thing, then I think this would be sufficient to know where it exits in both of these examples. I will just tackle the 2nd one for now since I'm studying those right now. In that case, I think it is a Dominant lateral, with black being the dominant direction. I believe this would BO to end the lateral in the dominant direction (black). Attached is what I believe is a similar lateral as your 2nd one. My example is jan 24, 13:05.
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I can see how you can group these into those that start with a Sym, and then test the high or low of the 1st bar (without penetrating it), before penetrating the lateral boundary on a later bar. However, from post #1171, I am confused a bit here. It looks like the bar 55 and bar 79 laterals fit this same pattern, but the 67 lateral does not (it starts with a Sym, but there is no bar that tests the lateral before it is penetrated). Just wanted to confirm that neither of those 3 laterals fit into the same set of laterals from the Lateral Drill. I've attached the chart under discussion from #1171 for reference.
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The Lateral Drill laterals all have a higher volume peak for the 1st bar that forms the lateral (or in 1 case the bar before the 1st bar of the lateral which is the same color) than the previous volume peak of the opposite direction price movement. In 1/13/2010 bar 79 this is less apparent but that is because of the end of day effect.
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Yup totally agree that bar 1 sets the boundaries. I think what double eagle is saying is the next 2 bars (whether they are sym, FTP etc) might be one major factor that differentiates the types of laterals though in the 3 cases from the Lateral Drill (or possibly sub-cases of those ) I also have a feeling volume (as always!!) has a greater role in this than perhaps has been discussed so far though it eludes me. I will just say in the 1st lateral in the Lateral Drill, the volume and mode of the bars seems the "cleanest". It is just very simple compared to the other two laterals in that drill. It's almost like you can just draw a V with decreasing volume as price moves in the non-dominant direction, a slight pause, and then volume starts to increase in the dominant direction. The other two laterals are much more complex with price changing directions more than 1 time inside the lateral.
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Some other lateral observations to add (with the disclaimer that this is purely brainstorming, laterals confuse me probably more than anything!): First, one thing I noticed about the laterals that are in the Lateral Drill: the bar that starts the lateral has a greater range than the bar before it. On a related topic, I haven't figured out when laterals end yet. I am aware of the 2 outside closes (or 3 if in a flaw) guideline, but there might be other cases that end a lateral: - ibgs on increasing volume with either close or open outside a boundary - spike bar with higher range than the previous bar on increased volume with high and low both outside the boundaries - peak volume bar with open or close outside a boundary Then in some cases laterals seem to end but immediately start another lateral. I haven't determined what to do here, in terms of are these potentially another part of the sequence or are they better though of expansions of the previous lateral.
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Tuesday, December 29, 2009
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It was great meeting everyone in Vegas! I hope to start posting charts to this thread again starting this weekend. I learned quite a bit, but still got a bit more to go. :) HUGE thanks to Spyder of course!! ehorn we missed you! Great meeting rs5 and everyone else, keep up the great work. I'm usually only on some nights plus weekends but I'll give everyone my messenger info who wants it via PM. I think it would be helpful if we get together in person again sometime, I heard talk of a SoCal meeting, I'm up for that. Moving to Atlanta probably in a few months so if anyone's in Atlanta and wants to go through some charts on a weekend together please hit me up. I think there are strength in numbers so to speak.
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Yup, was trying to drill myself by starting with volume only. The theory being I'm too focused on price and not enough on volume-- trying to overcome that. I also think there may be some way to determine not just traverses (by gaussians only) but also tapes + channels but I haven't figured that out yet.
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Tuesday, October 13, 2009.
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Very clear chart and excellent annotations, particularly the laterals + SOCs. I'll continue to look it over in more detail, thanks! Monday, October 5, 2009 Tuesday, October 6, 2009
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I'm leaning towards thinking I have missed something on the last chart, so am revising it. My new annotations place in a completed pink down traverse encompassing most of the lateral movement. So we formed the point 1 of a brand new blue traverse. Less likely, is that that whole long set of laterals was itself a parallel (lateral) traverse. Then less likely to either case is my original annotation was correct and we had a fanning creating the point 4, point 5. The recent up movement "feels" more like we just came from a point 1 than a point 5 is why I did this but am not sure why. (Not convinced of either case). Of course it is very important as to if we just came from a point 5 versus a point 1. In the former, we are looking for SOC for a down traverse. In the latter (which I currently slightly favor) we came from a point 1 and are forming a point 2 so have no business looking for a down traverse.
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Price is still bouncing around in this most recent lateral which is a bit more than "a few bars later" Default action = hold. I see some potential SOCs but am not sure about them, classifying them as unconfirmed SOCs for now. We've gotten enough L-R movement that this has stretched out the blue up traverse (eg fanning is appropriate. ?) We are still past the point 3 of the blue up traverse (possibly forming a point 4 right now if you count the fan). With finer tools perhaps you can trade within this lateral but at beginner level we are just waiting for it to end and fanning our up traverse as required in the meantime.
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Sequences are complete. Start to look in the next bars ahead for a Signal of Change on the blue up traverse to indicate FTT + confirmation + point 1 of a new down traverse.
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Monday, October 5 2009 (in progress)
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Friday, October 2, 2009
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Friday, September 25, 2009
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Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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Monday, September 14, 2009
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Wednesday, September 9, 2009 Thursday, September 10, 2009 Friday, September 11, 2009 Thanks for the feedback and your chart. There are usually a few parts where I can't get the price channels to match volume exactly (I could fix one part then it breaks another). So I try a best fit (or least bad fit). It's good to see everyone else's chart to compare these areas, good food for thought.
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For drawing gaussians, I have come to believe it doesn't correspond so much to literally increasing/decreasing vol bars but rather the mode, aka dominance. So for example you can have increasing black volume bars but have a non-dominant mode if the closing price can't break out of a lateral etc. The other thing that sometimes helps is working backward, for example if I see a b2b or r2r, then I try to make sure that there was in fact some channel that price just Broke Out of. If it didn't, it's a big red flag that something might be incorrectly annotated. Also sometimes I get very confused and just look for a new b2b or r2r later on to "reset" and I start a new channel. Then I work backwards and try to fill in the previous parts I skipped, thought process something like "Assuming this bar is a point 1 of a new channel, it MUST also be an FTT of a previous channel of some fractal. If that is the FTT, let's work backwards some more and I am expecting to see dominant movement from the point 3 to FTT. Going back a few bars earlier, there should be a b2b/r2r to start this channel, let's look for that." etc
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Tuesday, September 8, 2009
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Friday, September 4, 2009
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Thursday, September 3, 2009
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Wednesday, September 2, 2009