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aidaweb01
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Posts posted by aidaweb01
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I've been using Chrome for a good while now. It has it's moments, but I like the speed with which it opens - simple really, but nothing more annoying than a web browser that takes more than 2 seconds to open!
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When I started out trading I figured I needed targets. Initially I figured 5.9% per month would be a great target, because, when compounded, I would double my money year on year. I hit this target a couple of times and then I used to stop trading and do something else. The next month I wouldn't make the target and so I figured I needed to re-adjust the following months target in order to catch-up.
When I realized that setting these sorts of defined targets didn't work for me, I found a weight was lifted from my shoulders. I'm still working on it, but without targets, my trading is now much more consistent and it feels a lot easier.
Targets work for some, but for others it adds a pressure that they can do without.
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The problem is that there is no easy way for spread betting companies quoting these products to actually hedge their exposure to the house price index. The flipside is that there is a huge degree of interest in these bets. 'We are very eager to get back into the house price market,' acknowledges Austin. 'We have a large exposure to the prices next March and would anticipate that once these figures have been released and the bets settled we will be back taking new positions again,' he adds.
I've just been into my IG account and it looks like I can go short.
That aside, I totally agree with GJ, making a market when it suits should be outlawed! When Ladbrokes first started offering books they were well known to 'investigate and offer a price' on anything (within legal and ethical boundaries) Thats how they made their name. If IG pull the plug on loss making products they'll quickly lose ground to a companies that don't! P*ssies indeed!
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Aidaweb - thanks for jogging my mind, I thought I had heard of an 'instrument' that tracked some sort of house price index. I wonder how the spread betters lay off there risk if it's not an index that is actually traded?EDIT: Incidentally I am surprised that this is not a fairly common requirement.
The instruments I am aware of track either Rightmove or HBOS House Price Index. Its a synthetic product thats not exchange traded (some people have issues with this) but in my experience it accurately tracks the respective indexes. The issue is in the spread which can be quite large, but if you are hedging with a 6-12mth+ timeframe then it's workable.
Not sure I understand your question about laying off the risk?
I have friends who own very sizable property portfolios in London and I was surprised how little interest they had in the concept of locking in their current profits by hedging. One guy in particular says he's in it for the long long term and is going to ride the 'dip' and not complicate his business by introducing concepts he doesn't understand.
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You could short the 'UK House Price' or 'London Property price' Index found on some spreadbetting sites.
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I don't think you hijacked the thread at all
I think what you have proven is that the topic of spread-betting may provoke healthy debate!
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No doubt if you search the net for stories around spread-betting firms using inappropriate tactics for their own advantage you'll find many disgruntled punters sob stories about how the market 'spiked down right to my 200 point stop, took me out and then shot straight back up'
Not sure it can be likened to bucket shops however....
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What exactly IS spread-betting, asides from being a glorified bucket-shop for stocks, that is?After all, the spread betting trades aren't cleared on a recognized exchange, are they?
-fs
Spread-bets are are not cleared on a recognised exchange but all Spread-betting companies are regulated by the FSA so there is a level of protection.
Placing a spread-trade on the DOW is identical in many ways to trading the underlying futures contract.
If I wanted to short the equivalent of 1 contract on the DOW, I'de place a sell order (market, limit or stop) at £2.50 / point. If I wanted to go long the equivalent of 10 contracts, I'de place a buy order at £25.00 / point.
Spread-trading has a number benefits, not least no capital gains on profits but also a greater level of control over position sizing. Traders trading the DOW increment their size in $5 chunks - spread traders can increment in 1p (0.5 cent) chunks.
All the basic functionality you'de expect from your trading platform is available from most spread-betting companies I know of. For example, Market, Stop, Limit, Market on Touch orders. You can also place OCO trades with contingent orders attached (for example - lets say you are playing the breakouts, you can place a Buy Stop with a stop and limit as contingent orders and at the same time place an OCO Sell Stop with a stop and limit. If the market takes you in long, your short order is cancelled and your stop and limit orders are immeadiately placed). One of the firms I used has just launched a product that allows you to deal directly on your graphs using drag and drop functionality. You can even attach orders to trendlines and things like fib's - I don't know if this is available from other brokers?
Because the market is so competitive in the UK spread-trading companies are continually coming up with new and innovative products - for example Binary Bets where you simply bet on 'Wall Street to finish up for the day'. The way this bet works is simple. The make-up is 0 if the market finishes down and 100 if the market finishes UP. The spread for it finishing up is set by the traders of the spread betting company - for example right now the spread on it finishing up is 51.1-55.9. Assume I think its going to finish up, I 'go long' at 55.9 @ £5 per point. It finishes up so the market 'makesup' at 100. I therefore make (100-55.9)*5=£220.5. If it finishes down the makeup is 0, so I lose (51.1-0)*5=£255.5. This type of 'betting' is not to everyones cup of tea, but it certainly gets the brain working on how these types of products could be used as part of the overall strategy.
Not entirely sure what you mean by a glorified bucket-shop for stocks, but its certainly possible to spread trade 100's probably 1000's of instruments through a single provider. For example on one of the platforms I use I can trade UK,US, European, Asian, Australian and African indices and stocks (like SSF's), all major commodities (energies, metals, softs), Tracker funds, bonds, options, house price indices and a whole lot more.
I don't know why exactly it's outlawed in the US - would be interested if anyone had a view on that?
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I have 5 min data for 3 years (OHLC + Volume). If you could do better, that would be great.I'll see what I can get out of Tradestation
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Wonderful information. What data source do you guys use in any of these mathematical packages? I'd really like to get a few years of ES data (as small timeframe as possible, but 5 minute would be great) on a continious price adjusted contract (price and volume is a necessity).The main bottleneck I've noticed with Excel is working with large data. It handles small data just fine, but I was doing an analysis on just 5000 points (abet, slightly complicated analysis), and the chart took a while to draw and would lock up occasionally.
Don't know if you got your ES data, but I could dump some your way from Tradestation?
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Unfortunately, I don't know of any great educational resources of uses of Mathematics packages for financial analysis. To give you an example of what you can do, I have been working on my gap trade method for a while.The age-old gap trade involves you fading the gap, closing at the last market close, or closing the position at market end for a loss. This has unlimited risk, finite gain, and trades during unfavorable times (gap-and-go's, where the market opens and kills the fade, happen every so often). Basically, gap trades can be "easily" improved by adding some rules, such as implementing risk control (stop loss), and finding biases when gaps close a) more often, and b) for a higher p/l.
So, I take a bunch of market data (this one can be easily done with 5-min data) and try to find biases. Do gaps close more often on certain days of the week? Do certain gap sizes affect if it closes? What is the optimal risk/reward? What methods of risk control should be used to keep as many winners in and losers out? Does gap size in relation to yesterday's range have an exploitable bias? Does the open price in relation to value areas of yesterday help? etc, etc, etc
I have no formal quant training, so I stumble around until I figure out what works. I recommend for you to read Way of the Turtle, especially the chapters on avoiding curve fitting. You're trying to find biases, not curve fit the thing to past data hoping it continues to work. For instance, gaps bigger than 10 ES don't have enough data to analyze, so I do not trade them (even if some were exploitable). The variables I optimize peak at certain points (such as stop loss size), which makes me confident I'm not benefiting from a few trades but an overall trend.
I've been working on my gap trade for a while, and I plan on writing it up (along with the methods I used to find them, including any source code), when I am comfortable with it.
Interesting stuff atto - I've been interested in the GAP play for sometime and I think your approach to your analysis is great. Look forward to see how this develops. As you forward test your data (and consequently, the analysis you'll be able to do on that data) should be really valuable.
Have you come across 'The Gap Guys' work (not sure if I'm allowed to post a url to his website). He has developed a system similar to the one I believe you are developing - he's able to analyse his data in loads of ways (which days are better than others, probability of filling certain gap sizes, probability of filling based on size of OHLC bars etc etc).
This dude was part of the TradeTheMarkets membership - who also play the GAP, albeit with a slightly more discretionary approach.
I think the GAP trade is possibly the most analysed of day trades and yet it still yields fantastic results primarily because its the little guys that create the gaps and the big guys that close it. As long as that dynamic remains, GAPS will always fill.
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I watched the free video on theinsidercode.
The smooth american tones of 'Mac' started by saying 'Hello Friend' - as a typical Englishman I'm turned off by this smooze straight away!
I did however persevere with the video and to be fair I did like the logic around setting weekly and monthly goals and increasing your 'starting pot' as you hit your targets.
Under no circumstances however would I have ever or will ever pay for smooze like this.
No substitute for hard work eh!
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I'm bearish the GBP.
On the weekly its trading in a channel between 1.9945 and 1.9433
1.9777 is potential support - if that doesn't hold, then no more potential support til around 1.9558.
Fundamentals may play a part in this. If the BOE raise rates (and they were close last time they met) then GBP may rise. They are meeting on 9/10th July
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Another thing that would undoubtedly enrich the content at TL would be up todate journals. I know its incredibly hard to keep journals updated regularly (especially during those losing streaks!).
I found a journal at forexfactory by a guy called Stevie, who pledged for 1 year to post his trades nightly without fail - He'd developed a strategy, the details of which are not important, but what struck me was his incredibly simple Stop and Profit placements and his amazing discipline. From what I can tell he went from an account of a couple of hundred dollars to managing over $100,000 in the space of 18 months. Truly inspirational and great PR for Forexfactory.
How could TL encourage traders to be disciplined in their journals?
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Great question. For example, I know nothing about it and do not believe it's available to US citizens. That's neither here nor there, but just an fyi.I know spread-betting is technically outlawed in the US, but not sure where else in the world it's legal? I wonder if there's enough UK base traders in TL to make it a worthwhile subject? Besides its not impossible that legislation may change and make it available in the US (although I wouldn't hold my breath)
Given the advantages of spread-betting (position sizing, tax free profits etc) I certainly think its something that all traders should be aware of - even if its currently outlawed in their country.
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Good question. I could see a couple of areas that may be useful to those that are able to spread-bet.
1. A section comparing spread-betting companies - spreads, products, markets covered, functionality etc
2. A fair few of the spread betting companies that I'm familiar with are constantly introducing new products (eg binary products where you bet on things such as whether the FTSE will end up or down for the day, and bungee bets) - A place to discuss and understand how these products could compliment an overall strategy may prove useful
3. Spread-betting adds a new dimension to position sizing - you don't buy 1 contract on the YM, you size per point (eg £2 per point). I wonder how many novice traders who could spread-bet are aware of this?
I suppose the question is how many of the TL community are able to make use of spread-betting?
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Not sure how many spread betters/traders we have on the site, but catering for their needs may add some value?
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I've read in other forums that the turtle methods no longer work in todays markets. I am likely to be shot down in flames because I can't actually back that statement up!
But, I do think that their scaling into positions was the key to their success and that derivations on this technique are 100% valid today. IMHO this is also the hardest part of their plan to replicate - Balls of steel required.
Wonder if anyone has any success stories on scaling in?
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I've jumped in and out of this thread so please forgive me if any of the below has already been beaten to death but....
Wasn't it Richard Dennis that proved you could GIVE a winning strategy away and people would trade it differently, some winning BIG and some losing BIG, but apparently all trading the same method.
Unless this strategy is Black-box you have absolutely nothing to worry about, human emotion will see to that.
Why not post your strategy here, let us all trade it, and see how many of us make 15% - kind of like a Turtle MKII experiment?
Can you imagine if we all did
Happy days....If you are still dead set on trying to protect it legally, then its all about the quality of your legal advice (remember some lawyer got OJ Simpson aquitted - anythings possible). I guess as a starter for 10 getting those you are disclosing your idea to, to sign an NDA might at least give some indication to them as to your seriousness?
Good luck.
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See below for reason for spike.
To GLOBEX Traders:
GLOBEX is currently reviewing future option trades on the equity index futures which occurred earlier today, in particular trades done between 01:01 and 01:05 Chicago time which resulted in a large number of trade cancellations in the equity index futures (NQ, YM, ER, SP, ES, ND, ZD, DD, ER2, EMD). GLOBEX has informed us that some trades will be busted but have not provided any details at this time. We will provide more information as soon as we receive an update from GLOBEX.
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Hi all,
Woke up this morning (GMT) to see the S&P dipped over 60 points in the overnight session. I planning on shorting on a retracement to 8EMA this morning but am retiscent to trade now, given this mad volitility. Anyone have any idea why this tanked?
Daniel
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Excellent thanks very much.
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Hi guys,
Quick question on linking to excel (please accept apologies if this is not the right place for this one!). I store all my trades in an excel spreadsheet. I trade per row. At regular intervals I update the spreadsheet to give me my 'near realtime' P&L. I'de like to be able to automate this so that the Tradestation price for each open position is updated in realtime. I've scoured the TS website and most XLS/TS code seems a little over complicated for my requirement. In essence what I need is - a list of symbols in one column with a list of current prices in another (being updated in realtime from a RADAR Screen)
Can any of you programming guru's help me?
Kind regards
Daniel
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All, Thanks for all the advice.
Trading Journals- Some Information And Downloads
in Risk & Money Management
Posted
@gilpv - I created a trading journal a while back that I used to spread bet and share trade which I think would allow you to trade the futures contracts you refer to. It's a bigger file than the limit here. I posted a video many moons ago of me demo'ing the software (god knows why I was wearing a hat inside....) - Take a look
Cheers
Dan