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Found 38 results

  1. I'm looking to get into swing trading, and am starting off small ($10,000). Currently I use Fidelity but there are a couple issues which make me think there may be better solutions: 1) The fee is 7.95 per trade ($15.90 round trip). This eats significantly into my expected profit per trade (especially considering I'm starting out small). 2) When you sell a stock there is a 3 day waiting period for the trade to settle before you can use that cash. This basically means the trading opportunities are reduced by 1/3. Having to wait for 3 days doesn't seem very good. I assume people Swing and even Day Trade with Fidelity, how do you get around this waiting period? Do you just have to deal with it, or are there other brokers that don't have this? Any ideas and thoughts would be greatly appreciated
  2. For the second day in a row, the American broad market sold off across the board on higher volume. Although the percent losses were not as bad as Wednesday, the S&P 500 followed through to the downside for the first time in 2013. With turnover increasing on the both the Nasdaq and NYSE, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have posted back to back distribution days. Whenever distribution begins to cluster, we take notice. Although we never care whether or not stocks are “overbought,” the increasing presence of institutional selling is indeed one of the most important factors we use when assessing the health of a rally. Given the sudden reversal in market sentiment over the past two days, this is the perfect time to share with momentum swing traders our top 2 tips for managing your trading account in a stock market that may be forming a top: Be sure you know and are on aggressive mental defense against these 4 most dangerous psychological emotions for stock traders (greed, fear, hope, and regret). In particular, given the sharp losses of the past two days, traders absolutely must be on alert for the natural human emotion of paralyzing fear that may prevent you from simply cutting your losses on any losing trades that have already hit your stop prices. To ignore your predetermined stop losses is always tantamount to playing Russian roulette with your trading account. But this is even more so the case right now, as the recent rally is beginning to show valid technical signals of a potential top. In case you missed most or all of the rally of the past two months, perhaps because you didn’t believe in it for whatever reason, you are now probably feeling the pain of regret. If this is the case, you must be very careful to avoid being a “late to the party Charlie” (LTPC) right now (explanation of that term here). While the stock market’s current pullback may indeed turn out to be a low-risk buying opportunity, it is dangerous and way too early to make that determination right now. Continue reading to learn why… As far as the charts of the major averages go, the S&P 500, small-cap Russell 2000, and S&P Midcap 400 appear to be in decent shape. The same can not be said of the Nasdaq Composite, which has taken a beating the past two sessions, and is already closing in on intermediate-term support of its 50-day moving average. The Nasdaq 100 Index, which basically did not budge during the entire rally in the rest of the broad market, is already trading below key support of its 50-day MA. Looking at the daily chart of the S&P 500 below, it appears the price may be headed for an “undercut” of the prior swing low, around the 1,494 area: If and when the S&P attempts to bounce from its current level, the subsequent price and volume action that immediately follows any recovery attempt will be extremely important at determining whether stocks are merely take a breather, or if the rally is dead. Next week’s price action in the S&P is important because there is a cluster of technical price resistance around the 1,515 to 1,520 area (annotated by the black rectangle on the chart above). Four sessions of stalling action last week created overhead supply around 1,520, while the 1,515 level represents resistance of a 50% Fibonacci retracement (based on the range from the February 20 high down to the February 21 low). If the S&P 500 generates another distribution day that follows just a feeble, light volume bounce off the current lows, that could be the nail in the coffin for the current rally. Still, unless leadership stocks suddenly begin breaking down en masse, a pullback to the 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 would be considered normal within the context of the strong rally of the past two months. As we closely monitor price and volume action of the broad market over the next week, we will gain a much better idea as to the likely direction of the stock market’s next major move, which will automatically cause our rule-based stock market timing system (details here) to be adjusted accordingly. But in the meantime, be sure to read the two articles mentioned above so that you will be on guard against the most dangerous emotions that could seriously harm your trading account right now, while also avoiding becoming a member of the “late to the party Charlie” club.
  3. In the January 30 article we published here on this thread (see above), we touched on a key psychological element of how to make consistent trading profits. Specifically, the article addressed the importance of trend trading in the same direction as the overall market trend, and continuing trading on that side of the trend as long as the trend continues. Then, in our trading blog one day later, we stressed why the most profitable swing traders are those who learn to merely react to the market's price action that is presented to them at any give time, rather than those who attempt to predict the direction of the next move. The substantial broad market rally that came last Friday, which closed out the week on a high note, perfectly confirmed the trader psychology lessons of our previous two posts. When stocks sold off on higher volume ("distribution") last Thursday, January 31, the weak price action was sure to attract some short sellers who keep trying to catch a top, despite the fact the uptrend remains intact. Traders who went ahead and sold short that day quickly got caught with their hands in the cookie jar the following day, as the main stock market indexes gapped about 1% higher on the open and held up throughout the entire day. If you are new to our short to intermediate-term momentum trading system, please be assured we have no problems selling short when our proprietary market timing system indicates the dominant trend has reversed. There were several months just last year when we profited on the short side. However, we simply do not sell short against the prevailing trend when there is a clear and objective "buy" signal in place. Top 2 Reasons We Don't Fight The Trend We'll be really honest with you here. Trying to call a top by entering new short positions when the market is still in a firm technical uptrend is something we have tried to do in the past. Upon doing so, we learned that it hardly ever works. Even in the times when we eventually got it right, it was always after several initial failed attempts, which usually led to a net wash (breakeven result) at best. Perhaps more important than the actual losses sustained from those failed countertrend short selling attempts was the psychological damage done, as it was (and always is) emotionally draining to fight a clearly established trend. It's a bit like trying to swim directly back to shore while stuck in a rip current, rather than swim parallel to the beach until the rip dissipates. Overall, you must realize there is nothing more important to your long-term trading success than protecting capital and preserving confidence. Weakness or lack of discipline in either of these two areas will eventually prevent you from living to trade another day. All these powerful tidbits of knowledge, and many other psychological trading lessons we've learned over the past 11 years, are regularly shared with subscribers of The Wagner Daily end-of-day trading newsletter, and we we proudly display the cumulative trading performance results of our long-term efforts to prove it (Q4 of 2012 will be updated this week). Moving on from the area of trading psychology lessons, let's look at the current technical situation of the benchmark SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF ($SPY), as we ask ourselves, "Can a market continue to rally while in overbought territory?" Since pictures are always more powerful than words, just take a look at the following daily chart of $SPY from the year 2007. Specifically, notice how the ETF held very short-term support of its 10-day moving average for several months before eventually entering into a correction. Note the tight price range throughout the rally, which kept finding support at the rising 10-day moving average on the way up, after pulling back slightly for just 2 to 3 days. There are hundreds of other charts over the years in which we could show the same thing. Therefore, the answer is clearly "yes"...an overbought market can continue to run even higher without a deep pullback. Nevertheless, we are not implying the current market rally will match the chart above, in terms of the percentage gain or length of time, as every market rally is unique. Still, this chart simply serves as a guide and reminder for what could and frequently happens in "overbought" (we use the term quite loosely) markets. Although Friday's action was bullish, and we now have solid unrealized gains in the open ETF and stock swing trade positions in our model portfolio, we continue to trail tight stops in order to reduce risk and lock in gains whenever possible. As regular subscribers should note on the "Open Positions" section of today's report, many protective stops have now placed below their respective 20-day exponential moving average, which should provide near-term support during any pullback in the market.
  4. When a stock market is in runaway uptrend mode and refuses to pull back substantially, most investors and traders think, “I am not buying stocks at this level; I’ll just wait for a pullback.” Eventually that pullback will come, but often only after a multi-month advance has passed. This is why, in strongly uptrending markets, we find it much easier and more profitable to focus on the price action and technical patterns of individual leadership stocks and ETFs, rather than paying much attention to whether or not the charts of the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow are “overbought” (we hate that useless term). As long as there remains institutional rotation among leading stocks, with new breakouts continually emerging, the broad market will continue to push higher (although the major averages must also avoid significant distribution). That’s why “overbought” markets often become even more “overbought” than traders would expect before eventually entering into a substantial correction. We are trend traders, so we simply follow the dominant trend as long as it remains intact. When the trend eventually reverses, our rule-based stock market timing system will prompt us to exit long positions and/or start selling short…and that’s just fine by us. We are equally content trading on either side of the market because being objective and as emotionless as possible is a key element of successful swing trading. The majority of ETF positions presently in the Model ETF Portfolio of our end-of-day trading newsletter are international ETFs because they continue to show the most relative strength (compared to other ETFs in the domestic market). One of our open positions, Global X FTSE Colombia 20 ($GXG), has not yet moved much from our original buy entry point, but we like the current price action: Since undergoing a false breakout on January 15, $GXG has pulled back to and held support of the 20-day exponential moving average (beige line on the chart above). In the process, it also formed a higher “swing low,” which is bullish. Notice that the price has also tightened up nicely since mid-December of 2012. All of this means $GXG could finally be ready to break out above the $22.60 area. If it does, we plan to add to our existing position in The Wagner Daily swing trade newsletter. Regular subscribers should note our exact buy trigger and adjusted stop price for the additional shares of $GXG in the ETF Watchlist section of today’s report. While on the theme of international ETFs, let’s take an updated look at the technical chart pattern of the diversified iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ($EEM), which we initially mentioned last week as a potential buy setup if it made a higher “swing low” and held support of its 20-day exponential moving average: Although the price of $EEM did not hold above the 20-day EMA, a quick dip (“undercut”) below that moving average, followed by a quick recovery back above it, would keep this bullish setup intact. Therefore, if $EEM can rally above the short-term downtrend line annotated on the chart above, and subsequently put in a “higher low,” we might be able to grab a low-risk buy entry point as early as next week. As always, we will keep subscribers updated if any action is taken on $EEM, or any other ETF with a buyable chart pattern that crosses our radar screen while doing our extensive nightly stock scanning.
  5. raders (PTT) are taught about the proper mindset for technical trading. Also is the analysis and charts of multiple time frames at that time as a PTT would do it. It setup a bias to follow for the coming days and weeks. If you were a reader at that time it guided you well. Pristine Traded Traders (PTT) view the interaction between buyers and sellers through recognizable price patterns that signal who is in control or who is taking control. This starts with an individual candlestick, then another and another. This Bar-by-Bar analysis as I have named it continues until a pattern forms that provides a clear message for the PTT. I developed Bar-by-Bar analysis years ago as a way to say objective once in a trade and to also stay focused when not in one. This analysis once taught keeps the PTT in the moment, not stuck in the past analysis or projecting the future, which of course can never be known. Technical Traders look at past chart patterns to predict the direction of future ones that have not yet developed. Of course, the future patterns cannot be known and a problem starts when traders imagine future patterns in their mind and what they think will form (as they see it), if the trade is profitable. If the imagined pattern does not develop traders can become conflicted. No one knows how the next bar or bars will form. The trade can go in the direction thought, but prices can do that in unimagined ways. Pristine Tip: Projecting the future beyond the current pattern's message limits possibilities. This is where rationalization starts about the present and all sorts of problems begin for traders. The worst of those problems is not adhering to a stop-loss. Why take a stop-loss when this was not part of the future pattern imagined? This trader is in disbelief of what is, cannot except the moment and is looking for any reason for the trade to be working, even though it is not. Another trader imagines being stopped out and quickly closes a trade for a small gain or loss, but the current pattern has not signaled that there is anything wrong with this trade. In both examples, the traders were not focus on the present. Price patterns can develop in endless ways and once you are in a trade there is no point imagining what isn't there. PTTs have tools like Bar-by-Bar analysis to keep them in alignment with what is. Traders must have confidence in a method used and a trading plan to use that method. Where patterns form in relation to prior support, resistance, what is the prevailing trend, the length of retracements, analysis of multiple time frames being aligned or not, whether relative strength or weakness has been shown, volume analysis and current market internals all are considered. The more of these that are aligned together, the greater the odds of a successful trade. Knowing how to interpret it all, in a systematic way is what makes up the Pristine Method® Seminars. Following it the analysis and charts from 2009. SPY has risen over the last five weeks and is coming into the prior area where sellers aggressively took advantage of any attempt to move higher. The PTT knows that sellers were aggressive in this area because of the three bar combination to the left of current prices. The Topping Tail (TT) signaled distribution on the attempt to move higher. Realize that TT was a large green candle before it was a TT and was preceded by a Bottoming Tail (BT) bar. Also, that BT was the third down candle. After that much selling and a BT, the following candle would typically be a green one. But it ended with a TT, a bearish sign. The next candle was a green candle and we can see that candle opened below the prior TT candle's low or gapped lower. This green candle closed near its high and near the high of the TT candle. Buyers were stepping up and took control this week or so they thought. What happened next clearly put a nail in the heart of the bulls. The third candle was a potent reversal down that retraced almost to the low of the prior green candle. The concept of a Green Bar Ignored (GBI) tells the PTT that sellers took the field back in a big way and bulls are weak. It's not any GBI though. This combination of candles was bearish and as we know led to a sharp selloff and the March 6th low. With the current move from the low now near the area of the prior selling, it suggests new selling in this area. However, the retracement from the low was nearly 100% of the prior decline and at this point we don't actually know that the move higher is over. Retracements of this amount are not typical in a bear market and signal strength. The trend in the weekly time frame is still down and while we should see an increase in selling soon, the length of the retracement suggests the beginning of a bottoming process. The PTT will monitor the candles that form in this area and the volume associated with them in the coming week and weeks to determine how aggressive sellers are and reaction to that selling by bulls. Let's move to the daily time frame. The trend is up in the daily time frame, but a Major Resistance (MR) area is lurking just above. On Friday, prices gapped significantly higher from a Bullish Changing of the Guard (+COG) and it was quite impressive that SPY did not retrace back into that gap. Not only did it not retrace into the gap, SPY closed near the high of the day going into a long weekend. This tells us that traders are confident holding positions over the weekend and expect higher prices this week. To recap, the weekly trend is down and current prices are coming into an area where sellers were aggressive before. At this point, the PTT trading from the daily time frame will start tightening stops and should prices rally or gap higher into the above area of MR they will start selling longs. Shorts positions cannot be put on since the daily time frame is up and a bearish pattern has not formed. Last week's low (green line) is Major Support (MS) in this time frame. A move below it will signal a change in trend and the PTT will then look for shorting setups. The last few weeks have been unusually filled with larger morning gaps and choppy intra-day price action. If you look back at a 60-Min chart of SPY from the middle of February to the middle of March (not shown) you will see fewer gaps and fluid price movements with narrower average range bars. This means that there was much more confidence amongst traders then when SPY was declining into the beginning of March and then after the turn higher into mid March. Even though prices have moved up overall, after March 18th a higher level of uncertainty crept into the market. The PTTs trained eye is aware to reduce position size to and/or be a bit more selective with plays when the broader market is displaying this type of nervous price pattern. Gaps, many overlapping bars and unusually wide ranges communicate uncertainty amongst traders. If you have felt a bit uncertain for longer moments than usual intra-day consider it normal at this time. Now this relates to SPY, which of course is a broad market index and SPY affects many stocks. However, there will always be stocks that are "in-play" and will move in a fluid way. The concept of Relative Strength, Weakness and Sector analysis is the key to finding those opportunities. The PTT has many analysis tools. Now, Friday's intra-day price action showed a change to a higher level of certainty. Should it continue this week with a several day advance into or just over the MS shown, odds are high that it would setup a correction. Pristine Tip: Downtrends and up trends end with price patterns displaying certainty or confidence in the existing trend. In other words, the majority believes in the trend at the end and several bar runs (consecutive) precede corrective price action. I've marked support levels to be aware of on the 60-Min. chart, the first being Friday's low. Below it, prices have the void created by the gap up Friday morning that can be fallen into. The second green line would close the gap and should provide short-term support. The last green line is at Wednesday's low and MS on the daily time frame. Below it, the daily trend will no longer be up, the 60-Min. will be down and the weekly is already down and will have formed a -COG. Bears will have control and the PTT will aggressively scan for shorting opportunities. What actually happens will unfold in the coming weeks. It is possible that SPY will not break daily MS and it will continue to trend higher and form a new higher low. We'll see, but what I have explained here is how the PTT will follow what unfolds in a systematic way in multiple time frames. Should the daily trend not break then a short-term bullish bias will be maintained. If prices can overcome the MR area above on the weekly time frame, then that downtrend will be broken. The cycles or ebbs and flows from one time frame to another are ongoing and the PTT's job is to monitor and update them as they unfold to adjust his or her bias accordingly. Intra-day PPTs will follow the same analysis, but with smaller time frames. This does not mean the higher are totally ignored, but what happens over several minutes is more meaningful in those lower time frames to the intra-day trader. Intra-day PTTs can and do make money trading long in a 2-or 5-Min. uptrend when the daily trade is down and vice versa. We now know that the low in 2009 was "the low" and the near 100% retracement I wrote about then did signal the end of the bear market at the time. SPY has doubled since that time. The analysis as it was explained then is done in the same way today. Market environments change, but we don't change our method of analysis. This method is the same regardless of what we trade. PRISTINE - A Trading Style, Often Imitated, But NEVER Matched! All the best, Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  6. On the close of December 13, our stock market timing system shifted from “buy” to “neutral” mode. This means we now have no firm bias with regard to near to intermediate-term market trend for swing trading. The lack of substantial bullish follow-through in leading individual stocks in recent weeks, the absence of leadership in most ETFs (other than international ETFs), and the bearish pattern on the weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index (below) are all valid reasons to avoid the long side of the market now. Nevertheless, recent price action in the stock market has not yet convincingly confirmed the balance of power has shifted back to the bears, so we are a bit cautious about aggressively jumping in the short side of the market just yet. Below is a longer-term weekly chart pattern of S&P 500 SPDR ($SPY), a popular ETF proxy for trading the benchmark S&P 500 Index. Notice that $SPY will likely print a bearish “shooting star” candlestick pattern for the week. This is a topping pattern that often indicates near-term bullish momentum is running out. Since a weekly chart is a longer-term interval than a daily chart, the formation of this shooting star pattern on the weekly chart is more important than if the the same pattern occurred on a daily chart: Notice that the formation of the shooting star candlestick also occurred as $SPY “overcut” resistance of its downtrend line from the September high. This overcut of the downtrend line is significant because it sucks in new buyers, just as institutions are starting to sell into strength. This creates additional overhead supply that subsequently increases the odds of a resumption of the dominant downtrend. This would be confirmed if $SPY breaks below the horizontal price support shown above, which is merely a move below the low of its current weekly candlestick. Although the weekly pattern of $SPY looks a bit ominous, at least in still trading above technical support of its 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages on the shorter-term daily chart. That’s more than one can say about the Nasdaq 100 Index, which sliced back below its 50 and 200 day moving averages yesterday. As you can see on the daily chart of $QQQ (an ETF proxy that tracks the Nasdaq 100), a break below yesterday’s low would coincide to the Nasdaq sliding back below its 20-day exponential moving average as well: We concluded yesterday’s technical commentary by saying, “Given the lack of explosive price action in leadership stocks and the late day selling in the averages the past two days, the market could be vulnerable to a sell off in the short term…We are not calling the current rally dead, but we do not mind stepping aside for a few days and monitoring the price action.” To coincide with this statement, we made a judgment call to take profits on all long positions in our model trading portfolio by selling at market on yesterday’s open. Given that the broad market subsequently trended lower throughout the entire session, this worked out pretty well. Now, we are back to “flat and happy,” sitting on the sidelines 100% in cash. One big challenge for swing traders right now is that volume levels in the broad market will likely begin heavily receding next week, as we approach the Christmas holiday. As we have warned several times in recent weeks, swing trading in low-volume environments is challenging because day-to-day price action tends to be more erratic and indecisive. Therefore, we’re not in a hurry to enter multiple new positions (either long or short) ahead of the holidays, but will still consider new stock and/or ETF trade entries (possibly on the short side and/or inverse ETFs) with reduced share size if an ideal trade setup with a firmly positive reward-risk ratio presents itself.
  7. I wanted to start a thread to discuss longer term technical picture of the E-minis and thought it could be useful to not only e-mini day traders, but those looking to swing trade too.
  8. Are you one of the many swing traders that takes the same level of risk notwithstanding the market conditions? Do you always trade "a thousand" shares just because that's an easy number to remember? I will discuss some finer points that might help you to become better at managing risk. First and foremost, the Pristine Trained Trader (PTT) should have a Trading Plan outlining his money management rules. Here you should establish parameters such as a "maximum loss per week-month". When establishing a maximum loss per trade (because no one can know which trade is going to work out), the PTT has to decide whether he wants to follow a more "static" approach where all his potential losses will be similar, or whether to adopt a more "dynamic" set of guidelines created with the purpose of governing when to be more aggressive, less aggressive, or not active at all. First and foremost, you have to understand the fact that not all market conditions present the same odds for a particular trade. Let's say for example that market "x" is in an up-trend, and has pulled back to support for several days. Today we get a reversal bar, and tomorrow the reversal is complete. Thus, the swing trader will likely find several high odds entries both today and tomorrow (depending on the tactics used, many of which are taught in our Trading The Pristine Method seminars. Then the third day comes along, the market continues to climb, and some more entries might be executed. As the market continues to rally, the odds of every new entry will diminish, as the probability of a reversal to the downside in market "x" is greater. Based on this scenario, a swing trader might enter into larger positions on days one and two, and might reduce his share lots as the market continues to climb. There will be a time when the market has climbed for 5 or 6 days in a row, and so the Pristine Swing Trader will devote more and more of his time to manage already open positions, by selling partial lots and raising his stops, instead of being too active in entering new swing positions. (He might be more active in micro trading activities though) Trade Well! Kurt Capra Contributing Editor Instructor and Traders Coach
  9. What came first, the chicken or the egg? This question has bogged the minds of Philosophers and scientific know-it-alls for centuries. And I'm not the one that's going to provide you with the answer. After spending 28 seconds thinking about this matter, I decided that there are subjects more important to discuss here in terms of trading. Things that might present us the same dilemma. What comes first, consistency or profits? Now, this is a question that's in the mind of every aspiring trader. Well of course profits, you might say! You can't have consistency unless you perform several profitable trades. Consistency can't be construed to be just a streak of profitable trades. Even my mother can have several profitable trades, and she's not a trader, let alone consistent. A profitable winning streak can occur to any trader on a bullish run in the market, or be the product of sheer luck. So consistency must mean something more than just a bunch of profitable trades. Looking it up in the dictionary, consistency is defined as: "Reliability or uniformity of successive results or events". This uniformity starts, of course, with a well-developed trading plan. You simply can't be consistent if you're chasing any trading "opportunity" that you get from a friend or CNBC. Even if you're a technically trained trader, just possessing some knowledge of chart analysis won't make you automatically consistent. So, you learn a setup or two, and you're set! Of course, if it were that simple, even my mother could learn to be consistent. Of course that's not all there is to it! Setups alone don't make a trader. The same setup, under different market conditions, would produce different results. You need to learn a group of reliable setups, based on a proven method, and then learn to apply those under the ever-changing conditions of the markets. Read the last sentence again. Especially that last part. One of the key aspects of consistency is the fact that markets are environments in constant change. If markets were "scientifically correct" environments, where the same setup under similar circumstances would produce the same result, then achieving consistency would be a snap. But the markets are not laboratories. Thus, consistency would be defined as trading similar events under similar market conditions, and obtaining a good percentage of successful outcomes, while dealing in a logical and economical manner with the successful and unsuccessful outcomes. So what comes first? Profits or consistency? Well, I would have to say consistency. The proper use of setups, under proper market conditions, and under a strict trading plan that deals with the management of successful and unsuccessful trades would, under a disciplined approach, ultimately produce consistent profits. Now that's a concept that makes sense. KURT CAPRA Contributing Editor Instructor and Traders Coach
  10. Swing trading relies on a firm understanding of technical chart analysis and allows traders to buy low and sell high when done successfully. Swing Trading is a common method in the forex markets and focuses heavily on identifying support and resistance levels.
  11. I was actually making money swing/momentum trading - tho admittedly the market was very good in Sept which helped a lot. I was gaining much more than I was losing. I buy smallish lots (200 shares sometimes 300) and hold for anywhere from a day or two to a week or so. I always have a stop loss in place. Always. The past couple weeks, I've lost most of my gains of the past few months. My account is currently not much above where I started. I know that the whole market has been down - the international backlash against QE2, China's inflation problems, and now Ireland - but I don't know what I should do differently. Problem is, my stops (I allow for pretty good wiggle room - I usually set the stop about 8% below the purchase price) have been repeatedly hit, generating losses. (Sadly, after my stop is hit the price usually goes right back up.) Of course _when_ I buy is important - I look at stocastics to see when prices are likely at the peak or bottom so I can avoid buying just before the price starts to drop. That method used to work, maybe 70% of the time, but with everything down it's not working, except in hindsight. None of the stocks I've bought in the past week or so were much in the green ever, because everything started dropping, so when my stop is hit I lose, and that's happened several times lately. As soon as it became clear a couple days ago that we were heading for a 'correction,' I started selling what I had left and moving into cash so I'm less exposed. I'm OK so long as I can identify my mistakes and not keep making the same ones, but I just don't know what I should do differently in the future. Short of buying a crystal ball. Thanks for any input.
  12. What has worked for you as far as determining what direction to trade in -- long or short, based on the market and stock past trends? For example, do you only go short with 100% of your trades if the market is below 200 DMA? Or do you look at shorter moving averages on both the market and the stock you are about to trade, and balance out with some short and some long positions? How has your approach worked in choppy markets that are possibly establishing new trends? I'm experimenting with different variables, such as if the stock moving average over last 90 days is trending up and the market day moving average is basically flat, then I'd go long on my position, but don't go long with more than 70% of my positions... Btw, I'm a swing trader in equities only strategy, with up to 10 concurrent positions, and average hold time of 14 days.
  13. This trade was made on Jan 21/2010 (Emini S&P 500). I only traded 1 contract since this was a pullback short play on a long term up trend. Shorting 1 contract at 1110.5, with a protective stop loss at a technical point. Soon after that the market continue the small down trend move, 12 days later I noticed a reversal candle with a clear macd/price divergence. This was enough reason for me to close my position (05/02/2010) at 1059.50 for a 50.50 points move during 12 days and a profit of US$ 1.003 after commissions. Look a chart below. Swing Trade. Emini S&P 500, 12 days in the market. February 15, 2010 humbertomalaspina Edit Leave a comment This trade was made on Jan 21/2010 (Emini S&P 500). I only traded 1 contract since this was a pullback short play on a long term up trend. Shorting 1 contract at 1110.5, with a protective stop loss at a technical point. Soon after that the market continue the small down trend move, 12 days later I noticed a reversal candle with a clear macd/price divergence. This was enough reason for me to close my position (05/02/2010) at 1059.50 for a 50.50 points move during 12 days and a profit of US$ 1.003 after commissions. Look a chart below. There are always micro down trends inside a clear up trend that a trader can profit if you know how to do it. Stay tune for more. Humberto Malaspina.
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