RAVIN

o.k, so today 10-25 is a sell day, does that suggest that tomorrow 10-26, Friday would be a SS day, if so, what would the anticipated price action be. and what would negate that. Intraday VSA is a great tool to pinpoint entry and exits at relevant S/R and Pivot levels. After 3-4yrs of VSA , I feel I am finding it easier to observe the market manipulation.

Find your explanations on TTT very informative, have read Linda Raschke's book and noticed her modifications of the original version you describe on this thread. Would appreciate your comments on the Dow for today in the light of previous days, I am like you trying to blend TTT , which I admit I do not read it well at all, with VSA. Attached YM 60min, what are the possible scenarios?

BTW I am not in any way connected with Tradeguider , infact I am of the opinion that you do not require their expensive software to work with VSA methodology, all that is needed is a charting package and datafeed which can plot vol.

Here is a classic example of shake out, 1. 30MIN: Notice the last few red bars during the decline on heavy volume , then an inside narrow bar on reduced vol, now comes the test on a downbar where the cursor is prior to markup of nearly 40pt in 1hr (1000euros on 1 contract 2. 5MIN: note the test on low vol 3. 2MIN: Now to finesse the entry we know the smart money has absorbed the selling, however when are they ready to move up. The prices are marked down following by a rapid up bar, stops hit, people shaken out of the market, rapid mark up ensures shorts are trapped, buyers unwilling to participate etc, classic manipulation of the market, no indicators just pure tape reading, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) 4. Often the market is marked further down than the previous high vol. level, with dragonfly candles appearing indicating shakeouts, followed by rapid rises , achieves the same purpose: classic money making maneuvers by the smart money

Looks like the click button is not working above, Try again on this link: http://www.cbprotect.com/cgi-bin/cbprotv2/MCID9026/MTM001P/thank056964.pl

You could try this, got it from Tradeguider, : Our Master the Markets eBook is security protected through Virtual Vault. When you click the link below a page will open asking you to enter your email address. Enter this and click the "submit" button. You will then begin the download process. When prompted chose the "SAVE" option. You will be asked to save the program to your hard drive, so chose a folder you would like to store it in. Happy Reading and Welcome to the TradeGuider Trading Community. Click Here to continue the download process or email: richardb@tradeguider.com Get hold of the BootCamp CD, it will provide visual illustration of all that is in the book and take your understanding of VSA to a different level. This then arms you with the knowledge of how the markets are driven soley by supply/demand, you may have heard this cliche' a zillion times, but the way supply and demand works is exactly opposite to what we have been led to believe, the general public is totally oblivious of the manipulation that goes on. However this knowledge has then to be translated into strategies and tactics, i.e to identify setups for entry/exit, trade management. There are basically only 7-8 principles which govern supply/demand. Vadym Graifer's book "Techniques of Tape Reading" in conjunction with that of Marcel Link "High Probability Trading" will help you do just that. From there on it is just the question of focussing on a couple of setups, defining the rules, then applying them on a consistent basis with discipline and stop the search for any holy grail, indicators etc, Keep it Simple Hope this helps

The prices could be marked down to 31.6 levels, if the vol. is low, then that would be testing for supply as there is buying pressure in the background indicated by that red bozo on high vol. In that case the prices could rise, however if prices approach the low of that bozo which is a support level with vol. then it will break it to the downside. Those are the possible scenarios with the info. in front. Should be ready to play it eitherway.

The principles of VSA is truly the language through which we can understand what the market is trying to communicate. Similar Setup of weakness on YM

Don't you just love it, the market is trying to communicate to you whole day, we have to understand/interpret it, and the best tool so far : VSA but like any other indicator it is a tool, with hard work, discipline and patience we have to develop the skills to apply it. Those who find faults and blame the indicators suffer from the classic TMT syndrome (Tradesman blaming their Tools) where as all the while, no attempt has been made to construct , stragtegies, tactics, rules for entry and trademanagement followed up with thorough testing and then consistent and diciplined application of their own strategy. SmoothDrive: There is nothing true or untrue about VSA, it the language of the market. Develop the skill to read it, construct strategies etc. For Tom Williams, it would work over 90% of the time, for others who seek buy and sell signals, probably 5%, I think you get the drift. That applies to any indicator. The setups I have been talking about for the past 4days. When they pan out, boy do they pan out:

Next Day Trades, it is all about playing probabities

Thanks WHY?, Ranj,Tingull. It was a lesson in flexibility rather than being right or wrong on my decision to go short or whether VSA readings are right or wrong. 1. This is one of my setups and when I see all elements coming together, I have to take action , when the trade pans out, it generates more profit than when it does not pan out. However even the latter case it leaves you armed with knowledge of probable market direction in the opposite way. 2. WHY? was spot on regarding Tom's comments. I have placed a 5min chart with VSA indicators. Immediately following the sign of weakness, we had sign of strength. Normally I do not switch on these VSA signals. Notice also that the prices were able to crawl up on relatively low vol. one could look at this as no desire to sell rather than no demand. 3. The 30min chart WHY? actually tells a slightly different story of an Effort to rise , and absorption of supply from a push through the tops on the left rather than a buying climax and this info. would provide you more confidence to taking a long trade immediately after you have gone short. 4. Next day we had a similar setup which indeed was productive in the right direction. There was a range formation at R1 (5min chart), breakdownof that range, target was bottom of the white bozo to the left, and a further opportunity to enter on demand . Anyway enough of all this for now, have to prepare for tomorrow for more realtime effort.

TASUKI, Check out soultrader's video: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f10/simple-price-action-with-supply-and-1278.html You had that invaluable info. on weakness on that NR bar with high vol, armed with that you could adopt similar trading as illustrated in the video and profit from it. Now yes there was considerable weakness, selling pressure but two bars later, demand has emerged which is able to meet all that selling. Once again you have gleaned more info. on the market , this time showing signs of strength, with significant upside. Flexibility, not to get tied up with all this pros. and smart a.... activities.

Tasuki, When I put up charts latter regards to post 503, you will get more insight into what I am talking about regarding the need to be flexible and the sound logic behind VSA

Hi, Tasuki, I can under your frustration, having gone through it myself, and then you come up against some smart a... responses. until I met a floor trader who made it simple for me. I have stated some of it in the post to WHY? above. First of all get rid of all this stuff about professional money etc. and why if there was supply /distribution etc to the left and still price did not go down and so on. VSA and Wyckoff's principles are not about that at all, it is about gauging buying and selling pressures within the background context to the left. 1. Back to your chart and the narrow bar on high vol. Obviously lots of buyers and equal number of sellers, the narrow range suggests sellers were keen to hit the bids rather than sit on their offers or to raise them. If you were trading this intraday there was enough movement for the next 2 days to generate substantial profit. Now at that point a bullish dragon fly is generated indicating demand/buying pressure. Buyers be it professionals or otherwise percieve value and expect higher prices, simply flow with that. 2. However you can inject some logic here, 3 bars back, you have a wide range up bar following congestion on high vol, indicating effor to rise which then runs into supply emerging from congestion during 16-23rd July, then you have your narrow range bar again on high vol. As I said you could have easily profited from this info. but unfortunately when we first get into this VSA/Wyckoff, we get tied up with expectations and a subsconcious demand on the market to meet those expectations i.e in this case to demonstrate a significant downside, why? 3. The fact that the market did not further than it did simply means there were buyers on the sidelines with different agenda on a higher time frame. They were willing to absorb all that selling and support the market, ie. meeting the offers rather than lowering their bids. period. As WHY? when a sign of weakness in negated, you are now armed with invaluable information on the strength of the market. There is no question of VSA working or not working. Those terms are more applicable to buy and sells signals generated from a set of maths based indicators where the logic is more skewed. As Todd puts it "you are using variable A (price) and slicing and dicing it to predict variable A (price" Having said that there are many who just employ that, have rules sets and having tested them throughly apply them with discipline and consistency. check out a consummate trader Arthur Ullrich at http://www.tradetutor.com. This is not a recommendation to use his strategies. Only to point out that with VSA analysis, it still is upto the trader to come up with set strategies and tactics and rulesets , test them and apply them consistently remaining flexible at all times, this is the key. Hope this helps and does not sound too savvy, VSA/Wyckoff is a great tool, keep at it, like a piano, it is not going to play by itself, your skills will develop in time, persistance and patience.

Best to drop the idea of being right or wrong? It gets linked up with forecasting and ego which has absolutely no place in realtime trading. Keep it simple, get away from all this talk about professional and smart money as if they were a single entity. These folks operate on all different time frames with their own agenda just like you have natinal , regional, city, area wholesalers and various levels of retailers on our streets.. Trying to figure out what each of these groups is up to will drive one round the bend. 1. When the market is rising and there is sudden invrease in vol. it indicates resistance to higher prices. There is nothing like selling vol or buying vol. in a single bar. Vol is number of contracts exchanges, ie. buyers = sellers. Better to think in terms of demand/supply or buying and selling pressure. If sellers are falling over each other to hit the bids rather than sit on their offers, this suggests selling pressure and resistance and vice versa(buyers are meeting the offers rather than lowering their bids providing support). Now whether or not this selling pressure is enough to keep driving the prices down will depend upon potential buyers, which effectively is an unknown , until they play their hands. 2. Tom williams keeps emphasizing this, that there is nothing written in concrete when you read VSA principles in live market, a sign of weakness or strength can be immediately negated and one has to remain totally flexible. 3. Now coming back to your chart, If I was trading this instrument intraday, I would have the floor pivots market out of that narrow range inside day. Watch where the price opens near the high, moves to the pivot and rejects that, the most likely outcome is the break to the upside. Can observe the price action at the pivot and take a trade expecting resistance around 118. That will be the target. 4. Now time to observe what happens there, if it forms a sideways range, mark the high/low of that and take the breakout from there. If price drops back towards the High of the inside day with vol, it will go to the pivot and to the low of that day. 5. ofcourse if the price opens below the pivot, you can play it in the opposite way, expecting support around 105 and so on. So effectively intraday you have a choice of quite a few ways to take advantage of various strategies, ie. breakout, reversals. Anyway this is how I would do it, and it is time tested methodology.

Guess it did not upload , will try again. I prefer to micromanage the trade on smaller time frames. It is find on Hind Sight analysis to come to general conclusions regarding buying and selling pressure and possible entries, exits etc, but realtime the decision has to be made on single trigger bars after the signal which defines your particular setup and is consistent with your tactics to implement a particular strategy. Otherwise all we end up is endless discussion on WRB, doji, dragonfly, small range bars, price, vol, professionals, smart money etc. You have 100 of pages in threads on other websites, hardly any realtime trades

WHY? Here are 2min charts

Very sound analysis WHY? Those bars look small on 5min timeframe compared to the previous bozo etc, however we have to remember that these bars be it 30minm 5min, 2min are merely slices of a continuous stream of ticks of an ongoing auction., so size is relative, If you take the same setup, backtest it and keep track of it in future plus the time of the day, when the market is moved down or up quite significantly, plus the confirmation bars after the signal , all add up to a low risk opportunity. Waiting for more confirmation and then entering would be chasing the market and would be arbitrary and inconsitent with any strategy that was developed around such setup. Pulling the trigger on the signal and trigger bar which closed below the signal bar was right if that is your setup and strategy. Majority of the time this setup and the rules of the strategy yield far more profit than the losses incurred when the trade does not pan out It was an Opportunity because market had shown considerable weakness in the background which was not going to just disappear. Low Risk because the stop was placed over 5bars back around 8106, (8pts max which is $250, my risk limit) You are spot on regarding Tom's take on any signs of strength appearing subsequent to the weakness that would signal a rapid rise. For your benefit here is a 30min chart as well, wonder if that provides more context for your decision

Mark, VSA is being used just as any other TA price based Maths calculations, as an INDICATOR , not as a forecasting crystal ball, it adds another dimension to the market analysis and provides invaluable info. on emergence of buying or selling pressure against a background of strength or weakness, that is it, nothing less , nothing more. It can create that extra edge but does not call every setup and its outcome with certainty, probabiity always reigns supreme. Infact it is so flexible that it seamlessly blends with other TA methods of Support/resistance, Trendlines, MA, Oscillators etc. Back to the chart in question, I do not recall asking for forecasts of the next 8hrs, just the details of the trade in the moment, its management etc with the info. available in front of you on that 5min chart, yet you have forecast and chart out what is likely to happen for the rest of the day, a second rise upto 8130-8140 , then a massive fall and all this you have managed to glean from the info. infront of you. Please kindly explain your logic, how did you arrive at those exact figures????

Reaver, The book is good and in many ways quite unique .The Boot Camp CD will provide more visual on the various principles which as Tom says are only a few and taken in conjunction with trendlines, support/resistance and a couple of time frame can provide enough material to construct viable strategies and tactics for logical trading. VSA principles can help you identify selling and buying pressure professional or otherwise in context of background strength or weakness, that is it, nothing more. It brings in a new dimension of looking at price action and blends easily with any traditional TA indicators such as MA, RSI etc. If you get hold of Vadym Graifer's book on "Techniques of Tape Reading" that will certainly help you in further grasping the basic principles and constructing setups, strategies, tactics etc. The Tradeguider software is not necessary to trade with VSA. Hope this helps

Sure, also pasted a 30min for you ranj, wonder if that provides more context for your trade management. There is a specific reason I did not mention the market. These were realtime trades and lessons learnt, the intent was to share that. Tingull, it is not important to know what happens next, nobody knows that with certainty but ofcourse we enter the market, in this case short with the expectation that price would go lower, otherwise what is the point. Now why is that, because we have observed these setups before and the ensuing price movement or have tested them prior to trading with real money. You were right to go short, afterall there are all the signs in the background of weakness, the white bozo with vol indicating selling pressure, then a massive dragonfly right at R2 (price rejection) following by a black bozo, effort to drive down prices etc, finally an upthrust, ideal setup, there was no choice but to go short if you were trading this timeframe and based on the information available at the time, not HSA (Hind Sight Analysis ) but pure VSA (Volume Spread Analysis) Now you have a 30min chart, any change in your strategy?

o.k, so you would short at 8098, stoploss 8121, (23pts away), target 8076, low of that WRB (22pts), what about the support level of recent swing low at 8088. Anyway once again the chart this time with a strong VSA indicator (red rectangle on Tradeguider indicating upthrust, also the correct Pivot values on it, infact look even better with price rejection at R2. However we shall wait for more response

O.K, let's wait for some more response, if any further context is required would be glad to provide

No particular expertise required, the VSA signs are all there 1pt here is $25 , so your stop is at a risk over $500, what about the target .

sorry, forgot to upload the chart lets try again