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strtedat22

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Posts posted by strtedat22

  1. Posted

    2 1/2 times as many trades, average trade size goes from 12 to 4, and amount of big lots traded (199+) shrinks by 80%... Change bro.

     

    The CME is now reporting equity index futures trades in microseconds. This obviously gives platforms and programmers more information with which to work. Does this provide enough info to parse trades back together (smart/big money cant hide even by breaking up larger orders into many small orders)?

     

    Attached is trade data the CME sent me from last Thursday 9:00:45. Hundreds of individual trades were executed in under a second. Tracking big lots is dead. However, new opportunities have emerged. What are they?

     

    I'm sure you've noticed that large lots have been getting smaller (icebergs) since websites like TL and ET have hit the scene. Read tape near your entries.

     

    IMHO, with the tape speeding up it will confirm emotion/direction in the market. I hate when the tape is slow during my entries cause i don't when exactly the market is going to take off/breakdown. This new change will keep me on the sidelines when my perfect setup arrives but the tape doesn't confirm it.

     

    As far as piecing back the info mentally...Good luck because that seems like a monotonous task to do if you're not a programmer (like me).

     

    You use tape for entries/exits.

     

    strtedat22

  7. Posted

    Trash the mac and use a PC. You dont have to worry about software issues. Falcon trading computers have some bang for your buck desktops. I purchased my desktop from them 8 months ago and im very satisfied. FYI: i dont work for them.

     

    strtedat22

  8. Posted

    4 Things that has changed my trading career and will change yours:

    1) Follow an All or Nothing Management Policy until you can prove with valid statistics that you can beat it. (80% of all traders still cannot beat AoN trading)

    2) Trade WITH the market and in the vast majority of cases WITH the trend of the stock you're trading

    3) Review all your trades end of day and weed out your mistakes until you've eliminated all your demons

    4) Trade a strategy in your plan. (You'll be in awe when you review your trades and how many of those losing trades were the result of a violation of your trading plan/rules)

     

    clear and concise. couldnt have said it better

  9. Posted

    Your questions are really very far from being simple. You are pretty much asking someone to create a trading plan for you based on market delta/profile and volume. Don't you think this is a bit much to expect?

     

    lol. spot on :haha: grab a pen and pad and get to work on your trade plan. hell, it took me more than a year to put mine together.

     

    strtedat22

  10. Posted

    Yes...Cumulative Delta is the realtime no lag order flow conviction watch, to see who controls the order flow at any moment. Someone once told me that watching Cumulative Delta was like high tech tape reading and I can agree with that to a point.

     

    Fulcrumtrader,

     

    ditto...

     

    strtedat22

  12. Posted

    Yes that is Cumulative Delta down to the most basic order flow tracking look. The videos of course do not show the macro use of Cumulative Delta which is the tracking of accumulated zones of resting inventory.....that is a whole separate subject.

     

    Fulcrumtrader,

     

    the cumulative delta compliments my trading strategy. Trying to figure market direction was difficult when just reading tape all day. i uploaded deanz indicator on ninjatrader and put it to work at the open immediately. The indicator helped me locate commercial buyers and sellers. They have really big foot prints :rofl: i made one point off 10 contracts :cool:

     

    strtedat22.

  13. Posted

    Tracking supply and demand is done on both a micro level for intraday trade set-ups and on a macro scale when tracking zones of large resting inventory. Also, another key component of trade entry determination is watching for what I call order flow transitions. This is down to the very basic level of watching for the transitional shift in the bias of the order flow. When commercials initiate trades they create order flow transitions which can be clearly seen as the bias within the order flow suddenly shifts. This is great Cumulative Delta information to track when getting ready to initiate a trade, so that you join the new conviction and bias within the order flow. Scalpers need to join order flow momentum to be in proper short term alignment with the bias of the traded volume for higher probability trading.

     

    Here is some examples of tracking an order flow transition for scalp trade entries..... TL! Videos

     

    TL! Videos

     

    FulcrumTrader,

     

    Interesting, i like the video example. live is better than make believe. i dont like catching a falling knife nor calling tops so i look into the pullbacks during trending/sideway markets. All my entries/exits are based on tape. Locating commercial liquidity is a great way for me to find out early when the market will be changing directions or continuing. Im looking into adding swing trading into my arsenal. Thanks for providing me with your insight.

     

    strtedat22

  14. Posted

    You can...you initiate and build long term positions as you track commercials building large positions themselves. For the last two days in my longer term accounts I have started to build up positions to play the SHORT side in the S&P500. Track the "supply & demand" of the commercials activities and you will have some excellent swing trading set-ups month after month.

     

    Fulcrum,

     

    Thats easier said then done. Tracking supply and demand on a short term time frame (250 tick) is a little easier for me to scalp 3-4 ticks at a time. Please provide a example.

     

    strtedat22

  15. Posted

    Price.

     

    I'm not suggesting that you stop using volume if it benefits you. But, again, it isn't necessary. I took the same trade you did without considering volume at all. And there are trading instruments that don't provide volume, yet people trade them by price action only. One way of doing it can be found here:

     

    Ill take a look into the book. Thanks

     

    strtedat22

  16. Posted

    Lots of examples in the Wyckoff Forum, if you're interested. Otherwise, what is the one element that cannot be ignored when one is trading price? Hint: it isn't volume. Which is not to say that you shouldn't use it if you love it. But it isn't necessary.

     

    You got me. Please, enlighten me. :cool:

     

    strtedat22

  17. Posted

    Hey UB,

    I wonder if your Algos picked up a burst of Trade Intensity at 11:10.43 EST today (9/11). I detected 8 trades all at 1042.50 in rapid succession totaling approx. 1200-1300 contracts (depending on how you split them up). Near the AM highs. I still have some work to do on normalizing for time of day, so I wasn't able to see in real time, only in hindsight. Or maybe was noise/false signal. Thanks.

     

    mtn,

     

    interesting enough we see the samething. Market held with small contracts (1-20 contract sizes) then once the few sellers were absorbed market the buyers continued to buy to push the market up then a large buyer entered above the market to push the direction up. Thats where i made my 1 point today. Im sure you can see that. I thought i was the only one seeing this stuff. Tell me what you think.

     

    strtedat22

  20. Posted

    If that is the case, then you are still using a chart (250 tick) to see levels of support and resistance. Then using your T&S seems not much different than using a 1 tick chart for entries. If that is the case... I'm not as amazed, but still impressed. I get the general idea. Furthermore, just like using the 1 tick chart, you are truly reading price action, as compared to the 1m charts where you miss anything inside the open and close of the bar. Anyway, no need to post an example, as I didn't realize you also used a 250 tick chart.

     

    I thought the thread was about "price action". Tick charts dont have contract sizes included (not that i know of ;)) what can you possibly get out of a 1 tick chart without the contract size included? IMHO nothing. I use the 250 tick chart to keep track of where im at. Tape can give you a head ache if you stare at it all day without some sort of chart to keep up :missy:. If i use the restroom i can come back to my tick chart to see where the market is at then resume tape reading.

     

    Price Action Only!!!!

     

    strtedat22

  22. Posted · Edited by strtedat22

    A 250t chart is essentially a substitute for a 3-5m chart. They are both summaries and conceal just as much information. If one is following the PA, he needs either a T&S display or a 1t chart.

     

    Given that, there's nothing mysterious about yesterday morning's action, at least on the NQ. Price finds R at the overnite high at 0936, then finds S at the opening low at 0946. The trader doesn't need expensive programs and platforms, nor does he need to clutter up his chart with stuff. But he does need to do the prep. Without that, he will remain in a perpetual state of surprise.[/quote

     

    DB,

     

    I trade the ES, and there was something to be had in the morning session if you glanced at the TS window between that time frame :)

     

    9-10-2009 8:58am-9:03am cst

     

    1. Market made a pullback at 8:59am cst

    - roughly 600 (different sizes) contracts total hit the bid along with an additional 200+ (1-20 contract sizes) ahead of the large size flowed through in a split second between 1026.50-1026.25.

    2. Market held. who ever sold at that price point is in a world of hurt :doh:.

    3. 1-20 contract sizes flowed into the market (im assuming an iceberg order) pushed the market 1 point from where the large order was sold.

    4. What made the situation worse for the seller who sold at 26.5-26.25 was another buyer who came in and bought above the market to squeeze the seller out. I went ahead and doubled my initial order when price reached 1027.75 cause I knew where price was headed.

     

    I didnt mention any expensive platforms just a question of whether he had recording capabilities so we both can look at it. Price action is Price action DB. No volume included on my screens. I do keep Previous/Current OHLC as reference and see what happens (everybody else does) on the tape. :missy:

     

    Summary:

    1. I located a seller

    2. I noticed the market absorbed almost 1000 contracts in less than a second.

    3. Buy orders resumed fluidly after seller (including other front runners) were in.

    4. sell orders were coming in few and far between.

    5. Order flow on the buy side picked up reaching 27.25.

    6. Big buyer bought above the market to squeeze the seller out almost a point below him.

    7. No 1 tick chart for me, TS is just fine ;)

     

    PRICE ACTION ONLY!!!!!!

     

    strtedat22

  23. Posted

    If you can trade off nothing but Time and Sales and be consistently profitable, I'd be really impressed. Could you elaborate on your elite talent? I'm curious.

     

    wjrusnak,

     

    Absolutely...Dont forget the 250 tick chart :cool: Do you have ninja trader/zen fire combo? The reason i ask because they give members recording capabilities (OEC is another...dont know of any others). Each situation is different (is the market choppy, trending...etc). Giving you a visual example is something everybody can do to make a point. Looking at actual contracts in the TS window is a better way for me to explain things. Do you have the TS window (or anyone) for 9/10/09 between the hours of 8:48am-9:03am cst? i didnt record the day :angry: With that time frame i took 2 trades that were good. With the info provided with in that time frame opportunity was present. If anyone reading my post can post it in this thread so i can explain what i saw that made me take the trades or if not take sometime to review it. Make sure you look it over with a fine tooth and comb. Im not giving away what i see until you (wjrusnak) review it first or someone provide me with that time frame (Im to lazy to post a video). If you (wjrusnak) wanna my "elite talent" (your words) skills youll post a video of that time frame :rofl:

     

    strtedat22

  24. Posted

    PRICE ACTION,I am on the quest to rid myself of indicators.Since i have been trying a method using Stochastics & inside candles, with S/R, Double tops, Bottoms & Fib.Have not been as profitable as when i was using 3 MA, Bol. Bands, RSI, Macd.The impulse is to revert back & add indicators {of which I have,2 MA}.Has it been successful? No.So I am reading Wychofs book[ThanksDBPhoenix} & also have read Tom Williams insightful book on the Tradeguider site.If i could afford there program,as a novice it seems the way to go, I would .But $2995.00 is a bit much.

     

    Sam,

     

    Im sure youve heard of "over analysis paralysis". I believe that applies to you (sarcasm). Rid yourself of indicators and use a TS and a short term chart of your liking. The first hour will let you know what kind of day it will be. Watch the TS window when it reaches major milestones such as Previous/Current/ OHLC and daily pivot levels. When price reaches these level watch what happens. The market has 3 directions: up, down, and sideways. TS window will let you know what direction it will be going. Watching indicators and looking for chart patterns is a fools man game IMHO. Good luck.

  25. Posted

    Using price action as a basis to make trading decisions is possibly one of the most straight forward and simple ways to trade. Understanding how and why these things are as they are takes a bit more work and the perceptual shifts that DB talks so eloquently about. There are few (if any) better places to help you understand why (and the how for that matter) than the Wyckoff area here.

     

    Just as it is not necessary to understand Newtons universal theory of gravitation to collect apples from the foot of a tree, it is not necessary to understand why markets move as they do to capitalise on those movements. There are numerous good resources that demonstrate different possible 'hows' without paying to much attention to 'why'. If you are anything like me you'll want to know why though to some that is not important.

     

    A short comment on prediction. It is not necessary to predict to trade successfully, in fact the emotional attachment you are likely to get through trying to predict can be detrimental to trading without bias. The way most people apply price action is they see how it has behaved in certain areas in the past (finding potential areas of support and resistance if you like). They then monitor (in real time) what price does when it reaches that area again. There is a degree of anticipation but it is more about what is happening now than what might happen.

     

    In a nutshell 1) use historical price action to give potential trade areas. 2) Use 'real time' price behaviour to determine if you have a trade in those areas. Pretty simple if not easy :)

     

    The "In a nutshell" example sums up the way price action IMHO should be used. I enjoy life more than ever just watching tape along with a 250 tick chart.

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