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Everything posted by inthemoneystocks

  1. With earnings a week from Thursday, I like $KHC. Has a 5% dividend yield, Buffet owns a big chunk. Investors expect horrible news (expectations low). Stock trading at multi-year lows. Chart in extreme oversold area. It has all the makings of a bounce. -Gareth Soloway
  2. Here's The Chart That Every Market Pro Is Watching $JNK As you all know, the major stock market indexes staged a sharp correction in December. The S&P 500 Index bottomed on December 26, 2018. Since that low pivot, the S&P 500 Index has rebounded higher by more than 15.0 percent. Since that rally began many things have happened. First, the Federal Reserve has moved into a more dovish stance. Second, it looks as if the U.S. And China are getting close to an actual trade deal. While these important factors are major catalysts for the recent rally many market participants like myself prefer to follow a chart indicating that liquidity is in the system. Now here is the chart that every pro trader and investor is following, it is the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK:NYSE Arca). You see, this ETF tracks the U.S. high yield corporate bond market. This has been used by myself and many professional traders to track liquidity in the system. Simply put, when there is liquidity in the system it allows stocks to move higher. When the liquidity drys up it tells us that stock can no longer climb the wall of worry. This was the case in February 2016 when the S&P 500 Index staged its last major correction. The latest low for the JNK was on December 26, 2018. So now you can see the correlation. Nick Santiago InTheMoneyStocks
  3. This coming Friday is options expiration for the month of January. Usually, the trading week leading into options expiration is filled with a lot of game playing by the institutional crowd. This is generally a time when there will be a lot of rumors, ridiculous upgrades / downgrades and often some other far fetched news event. The bottom line, expect the unexpected during options expiration week.Since December 26, 2018, the major stock indexes have surged sharply higher. Now with so many stocks trading off of their lows we could see a pullback this week. But then again, I have to think that after the Christmas Eve sell-off there are probably a lot of retail investors still holding put options into this expiration on a lot of the leading indexes and popular stocks. If this is the case, then the major stock indexes will probably hold up this week. This week is also the start of earnings season. As you know by now, the street is looking for the earnings picture to be weak. At least that is what the market usually looks for when we have such a sharp correction like we have seen. In other words, market expectations have been lowered. So any surprise in earnings could certainly help the markets this week. Either way, traders will have to look at every stock on an individual basis. Many market leading stocks are trading into resistance, while many others are still lagging and should have a way to go before reaching a major resistance point. Just remember, this is a week to be on your toes as options expiration is usually filled with game playing and lots of whipsaw. Nick Santiago InTheMoneyStocks
  4. Trading An Oversold Market Almost everyone in the trading business is talking about an oversold market at this stage of the game. Stocks are now entering correction territory and there could still be more selling down the road. Generally, some of the best rallies come during a bear market and this makes many traders such as myself willing to take a shot at the long side when stocks are so low. Unfortunately, the stock bounces that we have seen lately have been met with heavy selling pressure. Often, traders will try to find many important timing factors for trades and hopefully we are entering one right now. Either way, traders and investors must still be very careful when it comes to markets like this. One old market saying that I have learned over the years is, it’s not how they open them it’s all about how they close them. This means that the intra-day action is really pointless if you do not see a strong finish into the closing bell. Since the December 3rd pivot high we have only had two sessions that have finished stronger by the closing bell than where price has opened. In other words, there have been just two green candles on the daily chart if you view a daily candle stick chart. Today, stocks are rallying higher intra-day, but it will be the closing prices that will tell the tale. In the past, when stocks have behaved this way there has always been a few hedge fund blowups out there. So far, we have not heard of that happening yet, but these things can take some time to come to light. Either way, keep an eye on the charts and let the market tell you what to do.Nick SantiagoInTheMoneyStocks
  5. Stitch Fix Inc $SFIX Tags Major Support Level, Buy Triggered Shares of Stitch Fix Inc (SFIX) collapsed over 25% today on the back of poor earnings/guidance. The stock now finds itself trading below $20, down from a 52 week high of $52.50. While it appears to be doom and gloom there is some major light for technical traders. Stitch Fix tagged a major pivot low from June 2018 at $18.40 today. This pivot low signals a likely flush out of weak hands and the bounce signals accumulating by smart money. It would not be far fetched to see Stitch Fix trade back to $25 in the coming months. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
  6. As you know, all of the leading video game developers have been under selling pressure since October 2018. Video game developer stocks such as Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ:ATVI), Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) and Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ:TTWO) are all trading sharply lower again today. When a stock fails to catch a bid when the market is rallying it is usually a sign of further weakness. Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ:ATVI) is breaking its 200-week moving average today so this stock is now on my radar for further near term weakness. The next major support level that I see for this stock will be around the $40.00 area. This level is where the stock broke out in February 2017. Should ATVI stock back-test this level it should lead to a nice swing trade opportunity. Nick Santiago InTheMoneyStocks
  7. This Blood-Bath Decline Will Lead To Another Monster Buy, But Can You Spot The Turn? Finally, we are starting to see a little fear on Wall Street. Yes, this could be the perfect storm. After all, we have yields rising on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note, U.S. / China trade wars, a stronger U.S. Dollar, weak emerging markets and a never ending investigation against President Trump. There are actually even more worries in the pipeline, but these are probably the most important concerns that affect the stock market.Traders and investors must now be patient and start to look for the potential opportunities to arise. We must realize at some point the Federal Reserve will probably stop raising interest rates. Eventually, the United States and the Chinese government will come to some type of an agreement on trade and intellectual property, both countries rely on each other for economic growth. The emerging market economies will find a bottom sooner or later, but this will probably be dependent on currency, interest rates and a few other factors. As for the investigation into the Trump administration and Russian collusion, while it gets more bizarre more the day and actually seems far fetched at this stage that it will turn into something major, this is still a wild card for the markets.The bottom line is that the corporate tax rate in the U.S. is 21.0 percent. This makes the United States one of the most competitive countries in the world right now. Once these and other problems have some clarity and resolutions the markets in the United States should continue to expand. Now please understand, if these problems are not solved then there could be some real repercussions out there for the stock market. Until then, stay nimble and look for the charts that are signaling a bottom. After all, the S&P 500 Index is about 4.0 percent off the recent highs and still positive in 2018. Nicholas Santiago InTheMoneyStocks
  8. Netflix $NFLX Hits Max Move As Smart Money Shorts/Sells Shares of Netflix (NFLX) hit their max upside level today at $370. This is the daily 20 moving average as well as a kissing the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level. Ultimately, the stock has soared nearly 20% in the last week. Look for a significant drop in price back to $350 in the coming days. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
  9. Could Get Nasty: What This Trend Line On Boeing Co $BA Shares of Boeing Co (BA) have been hovering just off of all-time highs for the last 8 months. Trade war fears have kept it from making new highs as apparent distribution continues. Distribution is where big money sells to smaller investors or dumb funds. As of now, Boeing is safe. However, if it breaks the trend line shown on the chart below, watch out below. The stock could fall quickly to $300 or below. This trend line is a major technical support that has been holding. If it gives way, there is nothing below until $295.00. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
  10. One of the most important reasons why traders take big losses is because they often fail to recognize when a trade has gone wrong. You see, stopping out of a trade is probably the biggest fault of traders and investors. Often, this happens to young and inexperienced traders and investors, but I know many veteran traders and investors that struggle with this as well. Early in my own career I struggled with stopping out of a bad trade myself, so I can sympathize with this problem. The problem with taking a loss is really two fold. First, the trader has to admit that he is wrong. As you all know, as human beings we all hate to be wrong. The ego simply gets in the way and we all want to always be right all the time. The first secret in this business is to check the ego at the door. The market does not care about your the color of your skin, religion or anything else. It will move in the direction of the money and that is the bottom line. Once a trader or investor goes into what I call 'hope mode' the trade is over. I'm sure everyone has been in this position at one time or another. Simply put there is no room for ego or hope in the stock market. The market is always right and there is no reason to fight it. Here is the second problem with taking a loss, it hurts. Pain and pleasure are the two reasons why humans do anything at all. As a human being, we are always looking to have pleasure and avoid pain. Well, losing money is painful and many people would rather simply hold a losing equity than lock in a small loss and move on. I cannot tell you how often I see a trader hold a losing trade only to see the position move further out of the money. Many years ago I watched a day trader blow up a $200,000 account in a single day averaging in on a bad day trade. To this day I can remember the look on his face as his money vanished in thin air. Believe it or not, this trader could have exited the position with a $500.00 loss, but instead he kept averaging in and fighting the position until he was wiped out. As a rule, once you have your full position you should never average in on a trade. At that point, it is critical to know where your max loss is going to be and stop out if that level is breached.Now when should we stop out? The answer to this question is not that simple, but here is what I personally do. I always place my stop loss below an important breakout or pivot on the chart. You see, prior breakout or pivot levels are usually defended when retested. After all, this is usually an area where institutional traders and investors got involved, that is why there is a pivot low or high on the chart to begin with. If that level is breached on a closing basis then I will move out of the position. So If I took a trade based on a daily chart pattern then I will usually check the daily and weekly chart levels. If there is a major pivot on the weekly chart then I will use a week chart close as my stop out level. While this method may not be perfect, it has saved me from much bigger losses when I have been wrong. Nicholas Santiago
  11. The U.S. Dollar collapsed sharply today after Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin said the United States wanted a weaker currency. This statement comes after the U.S. Dollar has already fallen sharply since President Trump took office. While a weaker Dollar inflates asset prices which is likely the reason for the comment, it hurts lower and middle income Americans as buying power degrades and inflation jumps higher. Anyone who is not invested heavily in the stock market is seeing their real buying power drop with oil prices surging and other prices jumping in response. Investors on the other hand are loving it. Those with millions and billions invested in the stock market are noticing that every time the Dollar drops, the stock market jumps higher. In fact, it can be argued that there is a bubble in the stock market because of the weaker Dollar. The bottom line is, we should all be careful of this uber weak Dollar policy. There will be repercussions in the future for all Americans. In looking at the stock chart, it clearly shows the exact spot it will fall to. Using the Dollar ETF $UUP, the U.S. Dollar will hit major pivot highs from 2012 and 2013 at $23.00. That means there is still some near-term downside because a technical support is tagged. Lastly, please be aware that just like with Federal Reserve policy on massive money printing and how global central banks followed suit, other governments will start to devalue their currency in response. This ultimately is a long-term positive for gold, silver and Bitcoin. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
  12. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been trading in a bearish consolidation pattern for the last few months. Every time the stock tags the upper band of the consolidation pattern it is a dead on short. In addition, eventually this bearish pattern will collapse. This puts it in a ripe spot for a short as a near-term trade and a long-term trade. The trigger would be a tag of $355.00. Keep a stop at any close above the all-time high of $389.61 and a downside target price of $240.00. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
  13. Crude oil continues to climb higher as global economic optimism increases and instability in the Middle East continues. Anti-government protests in Iran have helped push oil above $60 per barrel. Considering economic optimism is likely at/near a high and U.S. production is increasing with the price of oil, the pivot high from 2015 at $62.00 is likely a good short opportunity. I expect a pull back off $62.00 back to the $55.00 level of support. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
  14. It's earnings season! This is when corporations will report their quarterly results and usually issue future guidance for the company. This is also a period when stocks will often have big price swings after the earning announcement. For many traders and investors it can be an exciting time to trade, but danger lurks when market participants hold stocks into an earnings announcement. Just yesterday, I closed out a long trade in Dean Foods Co (NYSE:DF) at $14.99 a share. The reason I exited the position was because the company was scheduled to report earnings this morning before the opening bell. Unfortunately for me I lost 0.11 cents on the Dean Foods trade as my entry was $15.10. I know, nobody likes to take losses on trades, but sometimes that is the best move to make ahead of an earnings announcement. If you take a look at the reaction today in Dean Foods Co today after earnings it is not pretty. In fact, DF stock is trading lower by $2.80 to $12.17 a share today after reporting earnings. Believe it or not, this is a decline of nearly 19.0 percent on the day. Now my 0.11 cent loss looks like a victory after this terrible reaction to the Dean Foods Co earnings report. Now to be fair, sometimes stocks can rocket higher after earnings reports. Many traders will often celebrate with excitement if they hold a stock and are on the right side of the earnings reaction. Just think how I would feel if Dean Foods Co was trading higher by $3.00 after I sold it yesterday, probably not very good. After trading for so many years I have realized that trading earnings is very much like gambling, the odds are simply not in my favor to make that bet. So I have accepted the fact that holding stocks into earnings is extremely risky and simply not my style of trading. If you do decide to hold a stock into an earnings announcement it is best to hold a low beta stock. A low beta stock is an equity that is less volatile, will historically move in a smaller and tighter range. Earlier this earnings season I held Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) into earnings. The stock traded down about 0.30 cents before ultimately recovering and making new highs. BAC stock is a low beta equity and I was actually in the money on the trade before earnings, so there was not a lot of risk of a major decline. Either way, holding stocks into earnings is extremely risky, every trader and investor should understand the odds are no longer in your favor ahead of a corporate earnings report. Nicholas Santiago InTheMoneyStocks
  15. Shares of Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) broke above key resistance and are likely headed to a double top high of $255.00. That would be a 10% upside move, expected in the coming weeks. The reasoning is simple. Interest rates have started to spike higher, good for any bank. In addition, volatility in the stock market is starting to inch back up, another key way Goldman Sachs makes money. Lastly, the chart technical setup is beautifully bullish. Goldman Sachs has broken out above key resistance and is above all three major moving averages on the daily chart (20, 50, 200). This puts it in an exceptionally strong position to roar higher. I am bullish on Goldman Sachs Group. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
  16. Last week, most of the leading food processing stocks sold off after Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) announced that they were acquiring Whole Foods Market Inc (NASDAQ:WFM) for $13.7 billion. Many of these leading food processing stocks are still coming under pressure since that news was released. At some point some of these leading food processing stocks will look attractive. General Mills, Inc. (NYSE:GIS) is a leading is a manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer foods. This stock peaked out in July 2016 at $72.95 a share. Since that high pivot the stock has plunged lower and is currently trading at $56.85 a share. Many traders are now wondering if the stock is on sale, but the chart pattern indicates that the shares are headed lower. At this time, the stock has major support around the $52.50 area. This is a level where GIS stock based for roughly two years before breaking out. Very often, prior base patterns will serve as major support when retested. It should also be noted that General Mills, Inc. (NYSE:GIS) will report earnings on June 28th, 2017 before the opening bell. Nicholas Santiago InTheMoneyStocks
  17. Shares of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (NYSE:TEVA) sold hard in early trading, hitting its lowest levels since 2005. It look like another sad day for investors in the pharma stock, but then something amazing happened. The stock turned around, surging to the upside and turning positive on the day. A reversal like this gets the attention of every technical investor and hedge fund trader. In addition, the stock has already traded big volume, over 10 million by 1:30pm ET. Anytime a stock is making new 52 week lows or in this case, decade lows and reverses in such powerful fashion, smart investors jump on board for a possible bottom play. The upside on Teva Pharmaceutical Industries is big, with a near-term target of $37.50. Investors should be taking note of this reversal on volume. This may be a multi-year low being made with huge upside. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
  18. Shares of Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) fell sharply on Tuesday after reporting poor earnings and guidance. The stock is trading down over 13%. As it collapses and long investors who held into earnings are in pain, swing traders are beginning to scope out major buy levels. After extensive analysis, I am seeing a buy support level on the stock chart at $38.00. This is the first level I would consider buying for a swing trade long trade. Off this level, assuming the stock falls directly into $38, investors should see a solid bounce back above $40. Perhaps even a 10% bounce over multiple days to a week or two. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
  19. I am short Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) based on multiple indicators showing an extreme overbought condition. The fact that Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) has chopped sideways over the last few months, shows institutional selling as funds and small investors buy. This is a passing off of the hot potato before the fall. Ultimately, when the trend line below breaks (seen in the chart below), Home Depot $HD will collapse quickly. The downside target I have near-term is $135.00. In addition, investors should be very concerned with the recent jobs data and lack of mortgage loans being taken out. This may show signs of a weakening economy. If that is the case, Home Depot $HD will see the brunt of the slowdown in sales and revenues. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
  20. One of the number one reasons that traders lose money is because they cannot follow the most important rules. In fact, some novice traders do not even have any rules in place when trading. They are simply relying on luck or tips to make money in stocks. Here are three rules that every stock trader should adopt if they want to have a chance in this market. 1. The 10 Percent Rule. The ten percent rule was made famous by the legendary trader Jesse Livermore. He said that he would never take more than a 10 percent loss on any stock. Whenever he broke this rule and let his emotions get the best of him he really suffered a bigger than expected loss both financially and mentally. A ten percent loss keeps you in the game and allows you to fight another day. I cannot begin to tell you how many times I have seen one trade turn into a huge loss. This giant loss often hurts the trader involved and has even been the cause of many blown up accounts. 2. Do Not Trade With Capital You Cannot Afford To Lose. There is an old saying, scared money never makes any money. Whenever traders and investors trade with capital they cannot afford to lose it hinders their thinking. Trading comes with enough pressure already, but betting the rent or the mortgage on a stock simply affects the traders ability to read or follow that stock's price movement correctly. A good rule is to also apply the 10 percent rule to position size. Never put more than 10 percent of your account into any one stock position. This will allow you to find other trading opportunities should they arrive. All of your capital will not be tied up in one stock. By keeping the position size to just 10 percent of your account you will not have too much of an emotional connection to any one trade. Keeping the stress of trading down is extremely important for your health. 3. Learn To Use And Read Charts. While most of the people in the world will use fundamental analysis to trade (PE ratios, EPS, book value, ect) it is the charts and technical analysis that will show you the actual money flow of a stock. The bottom line, the trend is your friend except at the end. Reading charts of stocks will show you patterns and signal where the money is going and flowing. Remember, it is money flow that moves stock prices not opinion from some talking head on the financial news channel. How many times have you seen a company report great earnings only to see the stock plummet and vice versa? Often, the chart will tell us this will happen before it does. Chart reading will also help traders to place stop losses and know where pattern breaks down or fails. Traders must understand that it is just as important to know where you are wrong on a trade as it is to know when you are correct. Charts do all of these things and more when a trader can read them. Every trader and investor should get educated in reading and understanding charts. Nicholas Santiago InTheMoneyStocks
  21. Big Trouble Coming For JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) The stock chart on JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is hanging on by a thread to support. Investors should be very wary about being long the bank stock as big money continues to exit quietly. Based on countless technical signals, JPMorgan Chase appears to be getting ready to break lower. What is so interesting about this is that JPMorgan is set to report earnings later this week. This may strongly indicate they will miss earnings and/or talk about the less likely chance of Dodd-Frank being undone. Either way, when the trend line shown on the chart below breaks, the stock has major downside to $77.00. Based on calculations, it is just a matter of days until the stock breaks lower. Be ready! Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
  22. I have traded Twilio Inc (NYSE:TWLO) a few times since it went public in mid 2016. Each time, taking some profits. As of today, I am adding it to my strong buy watch list. Please note, I have not bought Twilio Inc yet, but am starting to look for a perfect entry price, just before the stock pops big. Below are my factors. 1. The stock has been selling off as the lockup expiration date looms. The date is December 20th, 2016. Investors are fearful that insiders will sell. Therefore, they have sold ahead of it. History shows us that it actually works in the opposite way. The bark is worse than the bite. The selling from investors, bringing the stock close to its IPO level, makes insiders not sell. Once investors see no selling after December 20th, they will rush back in. 2. End of year tax loss selling. Investors are also selling to take losses into year end in an attempt to minimize their tax bill. This is common and creates extra sell pressure in December which will vanish in January. Once January comes, beaten down plays like Twilio Inc will see a big bounce as there are no more sellers. Keep in mind, if you were going to sell, you would do it in December. 3. The stock is still a huge profit and growth story. Let's not forget this is one of the main reasons why it ran up to $70 earlier in the year. As soon as the selling pressure abates, Twilio will pop and investors will chase. Ultimately, I am interested in buying if either of these two conditions are met. The first is if the stock sells into gap fill at $27.25. The second is, regardless of price on the first trading day of 2017. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
  23. This morning saw the Bank of England surprising the financial markets by not lowering interest rates as had been expected. This move is shocking because it goes in the face of all other global central banks and their easy money policy. After Brexit, the Bank of England was in a perfect position to lower rates but chose to stand firm. Could this be a new wave of central bank thought? Is easy money policy not the answer to energizing growth? For the United States, perhaps the bigger news came in the form of economic news. The Producer Price Index, which measures inflation came in at 0.5%. This was the largest increase since May 2015. The sharp increase in inflation is likely to cause the Federal Reserve to worry. Over the last year, the decent economy and super strong stock market has not caused the Federal Reserve to hike rates since December 2015. Their reasoning has been that inflation is still non existent. If this inflation data becomes a trend at these levels, the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates or face a far worse future of stagflation. Stagflation is the most feared of all scenarios where inflation spikes but growth is flat. This means prices of goods jump higher but average income stalls and economic growth drags. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
  24. This Is A Major Concern For Investors IBB The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (ETF) (NASDAQ:IBB) has bounced beautifully off of double bottom support at $240 on the daily chart. Today it traded as high as $254.70, just two days after hitting $240.00. Investors are wondering if it is safe to buy the $IBB? The short answer is... no. This is why... There is a major concern on the daily chart of the biotech ETF IBB. Notice the confirmed break down that took place when the IBB broke through the upsloping trend line. Once confirmed, a retrace into that trend line (like we are seeing today) is almost always a heavy shorting opportunity. That means the IBB may fall sharply as early as next week. If the IBB is falling hard, you can bet the market is dropping sharply. This should be a major concern to not only biotech investors but all investors in the stock market. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
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