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SpearPointTrader
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Posts posted by SpearPointTrader
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No problem princess, I am sure you have say 5 years of data to back up your claim....and (of course) you can provide a letter of audit....?
Where do we find and download that data for analysis?
For what? The trading system I was talking about? That started in jan 2011. If you want to PM me, I can provide you with a copy of the logs on PDF if you like.
Oh, and thats 'Mister Princess' to you.
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OKay so I am going to "start off" by saying what a load of crap/Not sure why you would say this is a load of crap. I have the trade logs that show each trade since inception. I think this pretty much establishes a winning record. One could have traded the Emini for a living, with that system if they choose to, so long as they had enough capital to put up. The system requires 5K for each contract traded.
and now back to the topic;
I think the challenges have been outlined by so many folks over time
You have to find an edge.
You have to have sufficient capital and knowledge of the market structure to trade it
You have to have the discipline to execute it, and keep records so that you can do the periodic evaluations necessary to know if that edge remains viable over time.
and finally if the edge you are trading goes away, you have to enough skill to find a new edge and repeat the process.
I think we can all agree on that.
Its not that big a deal....but those are the obstacles and it requires an investment in time and effort that many of you simply won't or can't make.True.
A couple of things to think about (just my opinion)Traditional indicators like cigarettes will eventually kill you (kill your account)...however some folks learn to use traditional indicators in "non-traditional" ways....that seems to work, but it takes creativity and investigative work....as with all things, some folks can do this, some can't
That is the route I took with my personal day trading method. I have my own way of using the Bollinger Bands, and the 3 main moving averages to time entries, and exits.
You can learn to read price action using trend lines only (like DB phoenix)...thats fine but realize that you have a partial picture of what is going on in the markets....keep in mind that TODAY'S markets are news driven, so the more you understand about the way that news affects markets the better off you will be...this is especially true for those trading currencies.I really don't agree with this at all. Maybe 15 years ago, but todays markets are donated by High Frequency, computerized algorithms. Quite frankly they make it difficult to be in for very long. I went from looking at 30 minute charts to trigger pulling, ot the 10 minute, as an example.
Over all fundamentals still determine over all direction, as they always have, but getting from here, to there is just not what it was.
There are some basic ideas that have always seemed to work pretty well....these are based on human behavior. They work because human behavior never (almost never) changes and is mostly about "habits".....as just one example, traders seem to want to defend the previous day's range (open to close). The basis of this is my "time based pivots" (yearly, quarterly, monthly, weekly, and daily open high and low)....I still use them successfully. Today for example in the NQ futures, price tested the area around the monthly, weekly and daily low repeatedly. I watch and trade this behavior all the time...and I make a nice living doing it....This thought is that this is because the extremes of the previous days range have a high percentage of getting hit, or surpassed (in the direction of the trend). So a safe bet is often to buy under the previous days high (In a bull trend), and set an MIT at that high to exit, because it's a good risk to take. What is more risky, is trying to figure how far beyond that previous days high will the price go. Makes sense to try and take the easy money. This should cause a lot of MITs to he bit right at, or near that level, which drives the price down, giving the impression traders are looking to protect that level.
LEARN TO BE SELECTIVE ABOUT TRADE ENTRIES.....The more you trade, the more your broker makes, and (usually) the less YOU make....
Yup. I suggest making sure you only trade near perfect setups. It's easy to chase the markets around when they are bouncing around like a ping pong ball...but that does not mean you can get in and out at good times. Better to wait for the opportune moment. If you have a set up, that wins 80% of the time, you are way better off loading up on that one trade, riding it out and calling it a day, than trying to trade 1 contract at a time, all day long chasing what is essentially random market action.
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I am going to start this off by stating that I am currently a broker for Aim Futures and Options.
That said, we are currently gearing up to offer access to a trading system for the e-mini based on a computerized algorithm.
The system started in January of 2011, and to date, including commissions and fees, has gone from a 5k start, to just under 12K.
Yes, I know that Past Performance, is Not Indicative of Future Results, however, it is really hard to look at that and not think the risk may be acceptable to many people.
I would say that it is possible to make a living trading the E-mini, if you have a good strategy.
Please note that there is an inherent risk of loss associated with trading futures and options contracts.
Futures trading is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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.I rarely make more than a couple hundred a contract. It seems the more I go for, the more often I lose.
Yes...This more often than not the case. The more you go for the more often you loose. I try to set a goal. $150. per day, combined from as few trades as possible on a given day. Of course, I hope to make that $150. in a single trade. The goal is a minimum of $750. per (5 day week.) Or, $150. per day average. Get the $150, hit and run, don't go back. Don't even look back. Greed is a killer.
I don't even care how much I make in a single day. I just take each legit set up, and follow it to it's conclusion, or I pass my average win. If I have very clear signals, I stay in longer, but more often than not, the signals get blurry after the first initial swing on the intra day chart anyway, so i take what I got and run.
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Market truism: We learn more from failure than success.Stops tell us when we are wrong. Nothing wrong about that.
Once I started to accept my losses, my trading improved.
You should know you are wrong, and get out long before you ever hit your stop.
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Specifically, can you give an example of an edge?I can...knowing how to properly trade a Bollinger Band Squeeze would qualify.
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Thanks for the reply. I agree with the statement above completely. Seeing setups of your plan in the past is really easy. The hard part is seeing them develop in real time, being patient for the correct setup, and not taking something that sort of looks like the setup just to trade.I'm curious about your loss prevention plan though. Is that controlled by your setups and "anti" or, once you're in a trade, do you simply not stay in if it starts to move toward a loss?
I have exit rules, that basically tell me if the relationship between price, moving averages and bollinger bands changes (especially to previously established anti set ups), I exit regardless of any other factor. I do miss a lot of good run ups this way, but I feel preventing losses is much more important.
I wrote a whole chapter on what I call the "rubber band effect". To sum it up, there is support, resistance, and the tension on the rubber band. As far as i know, I am the only one that recognizes that the rubber band effect exists. It explains sudden price reversals that occurs even though the price never got to a support or resistance level. It also explains why these reversals are often faster and more powerfull than the price movement with the trend.
Learning to see them, is a whole other thing though. I would not even begin to know how to teach it.
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More than 70% of how many? 1? 10? 632? Or are you talking about your trading capital?I am talking number of trades. I usually count out the last 10. Every once and a while I count back the last 100. I win 70 to 80% of the time, if I am on my game. However, if I am not, sometimes I slip down to 60, or 65% for a while.
There are times, like if I am under some sort of stress or pressure, where I drop to 50% or below. In those cases I have to recognize I am suffering some sort of psychological issue that is clouding my mental clarity, so I stop trading. It's times like that where keeping my wins larger than my losses protects my account.
If I catch a good trend, I can hit 100% wins for the whole trend though. It all depends on how kind the market God's are to me.
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Spearpoint, if you wouldn't mind, I would like to explore what you are saying a little further.I've been trading for almost 10 years, mostly very unsuccessfully. After blowing out a small futures account, blowing out several paper accounts, moving on to stocks and seriously damaging that acct. (20% loss over 4 years), I am at the point of either giving up or doing something different - obviously. In my stock acct., I have never taken a loss on any single trade greater than 1% of my equity, and usually, it has been less than that - .5% for example. Thus, I've never had the "big" loss that wipes an acct. out. My losses have been a very long, slow bleed. I usually use a stop that appears to be at a logical point of S/R. When I use a bigger stop to give it "more room", the stop invariably gets taken out anyway. When I use a tighter stop, either it was correct and I am stopped out before a much bigger loss would have happened, or I get stopped out only to see the market run in the opposite direction. The end result is a "relatively" small loss wither way. The problem is that those small losses add up to big losses. Unfortunately, I have not had consistent or substantial gains to offset those.
Now, to your point, I would be interested in hearing further about how you avoid losses by your mindset. I have often had that thought, but have never done it because of the huge amount of trading info. saying to set your stop at logical points, give the trade room to work, don't take small profits, etc., etc.
Thanks for any addl. help you can offer.
Well, this is a tough post to reply to. In the course I was going to sell, I layed out a 2 year training program, before you even think about trading real money, so there is no real answer that can be given in a quick reply to a post online.
That said, the absolute most productive thing i ever learned was from an old trader at the Merc, when i took some charting courses there back in the mid 90's.
He had stopped in at the beginning of the break to check in on the teacher. As we were leaving he was greeting everyone as they left the classroom for go find snacks, or water, or whatever. For some reason he and I, out of the entire class, struck up a conversation. In that, he told me that the secret was in the relationship between the bollinger bands, and the 3 main moving averages. He said this with a look on his face like he had just given me the secrets to the universe, and was sure it went right over my head.
It took me years of study, and forward testing (Not back testing. The live constantly fluctuating nature makes back testing useless in this case) to figure it out.
That short conversation was the prime, pivotal point that brought me from the realm of failure, to developing a solid, consistently successful system.
I have 8 main entry setups, both with, and counter to the trend, as well as a bunch of exit rules and reasons not to trade in the first place, These are based off of how the price bar, the moving averages and the bollinger bands relate to each other.
To best help you, I would suggest that you start watching the markets with just those indicators, in real time, so you can watch how they all relate to each other as time and action unfolds.
Because the price movement bends both the bollinger bands, and the moving averages back testing will not work. You will see a ton of setups in back testing, that you just can't see moving forward. You have to do your study moving forward, and watch it all unfold in real time to see the ones you would actually be able to catch for real.
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I understanding your point, but trading this way can also lead to the type of trading where any time the market goes against you just a little, or it comes to your entry after going in your favor a few ticks, you exit, and then miss what was otherwise a great trade.I'm not saying one way is right or wrong, and I do agree that the best trades are the ones that go in our direction almost instantly and never come back. But when one is quick to pull the plug on a trade that has not yet had the opportunity to work or not, then it can lead to frustration.
Yes, I can agree on this. What I do, is have key signals that tell me to get out. For example, one thing I do a lot is look for divergence between the 4 bar moving average, and the outer bollinger band. If I see that, I exit.
Since I am only in to scalp small amounts anyway, this often ends my trade, and I don't care if it takes off again after the correction is over. I may, or may not get back in.
My average trade, both in sim, and real life is $80 to $90. That is all my wins and losses added up, and divided by the number of trades being counted. Since this is the case, I often exit as soon as I surpass that window either way, and call it a day.
I rarely make more than a couple hundred a contract. It seems the more I go for, the more often I lose.
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Agreed. I think we are going around in a circle. My point is; you fully have to accept the the risk of the trade. By fully accepting the risk of a trade there is a possibility you may lose. We all have tools/signals that assist us in preventing such situations, but when it does happen, so be it. Trading is a business and you strive to be the best trader, just like an athlete strives to be the best athlete.This is where I get off the bus.
Good Trading
Yes, I can agree with that. Although accepting the risk, is different than allowing a mindset where you accept losses.
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The biggest issue for me is psychology. If I am under any pressure at all, I start to get tunnel vision, and miss all my warning signs that tell me not to trade. This leads to losses.
I have a rule though. If I lose more than 70% of my trades, I quit trading for a week or so. That seems to really help me keep my game on.
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My answer, is $498.70
Well, sort of. I wrote a course on my method, and was going to sell it for that, but I had issues with my marketing team and the course never saw the light of day.
I did do some sample test marketing, and the response I got was pretty disheartening to say the least. The most common response was I was some sort of scam artist looking to fleece beginners of their money.
I have to say I was shocked, and quite dismayed by that type of feed back; so much so, that I have decided I am not willing to ever share what I do with anyone.
On the subject of whether or not this is teachable, I believe the Turtle experiment proved it was. However, if you look at how they did it, they had a process of elimination. Those who could not follow their rules, or did not show an aptitude, were eliminated from the program.
What I got out of that is that, Yes, trading can be taught. However, only to people who have a certain *It Factor* in the first place.
I really feel that only a small percentage of the population can do this stuff successfully. I really do feel that we are 1% of the population. Everyone else is doomed to blow out their accounts before they start.
Given that, I could mentor, or sell courses to plenty of people, who just don't have what it takes to succeed in Futures. However, I really don't want to be blamed when they blow out their accounts, and accuse me of ripping them off because they just don't have the talent to do this, no matter what system they follow.
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So just for the record, Are you saying you never make a loss? and if you do make a loss you don't accept it. Does your broker accept your losses on your behalf?Everyone takes losses. But my mindset is not to just accept them. I fight to prevent them, or minimize them as much as I can. The market has to force a loss on me. I am not going to just let them happen.
This is a mindset I am talking about here. If you have a mindset where taking a loss is acceptable, then you are going to take losses, because you are complacent.
If you have a mindset where losses are unacceptable, you will do everything you can to avoid them. This mindset will have you exiting before a turning market becomes a loss, and exiting as quickly as possible if you are experiencing one. This helps keep your account from being chewed up.
Preventing losses, and having more reasons NOT to trade, than to trade is more important that how much you make on winning trades.
You can make more than you lose as much as you want, but if you allow too many losing streaks, with the idea that that one big one will more than make up for it, you will be drained before you ever get to it. So for me, my first goal is to do everything I can to not lose.
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Interesting article. ThanksThe way I think about trading is accepting the loss before you trade. There is a random distribution between wins and losses. When you put money into a slot machine and you don't win, most people are not upset about the outcome, since they have accepted the loss before the handle was pulled. Trading is the same. Enter positions where you are prepared to accept the loss.
I have found that NOT accepting losses works better for me. I have a bunch of signs that trades are turning bad, and I prefer to get out right away. I often exit with a small profit, rather than accept a loss.
I am of the belief that if you hit your stop loss, you did something wrong.
I have 8 set ups for entries, but over a dozen "Anti" set ups that either get me out of the market, or prevent me from getting in in the first place.
Willingness to accept losses, is how you get your account chewed up.
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Very interesting advise.
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indicators is very good tools, it's just that most new traders are using them wrong,they are meant to be used as confirmation, not to take entry signals from,
in that sence I think indicators are priceless:)
price action first, indicators second
I actually disagree with this. My favorites are a combination of Bollinger bands and Moving averages(3 main ones). I most definitely have entrance and exit signals from them.
That said, I do also use them for confirmations as well. It really depends on the set up I am using at the moment. A break out of a 1,2,3 for example, would be a confirmation. A Spear Point, on the other hand, is the signal.
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Beat me to it. Be careful of Confirmation Bias - look it up if you need to. Arguably a trader's worst enemy. Read Fooled by Randomness, too.Now, PERHAPS these observations are legit, but your point, and the one that's been attempted to be made throughout this thread - how do we know WHICH timeframes to watch? - as well as what about different data feeds and computers not synched exactly the same, all lend a big question mark to any such observations and claims of relevance.
You have to learn to see the waves before they are complete. Then you have to pick the ones that are likely to be big enough for a decent profit to be extracted. Whatever time frame gives you that, is the one you want.
I don't choose, and use various time frames from the 3 minute, all the way up to the weekly.
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lol... I could have written that very same post, Mitsubishi! And I'm probably about to prove it
And you definitely get cut some slack in your response to the ludicrous post (see, I can do it, too!) saying you're too emotional (right before he makes the seemingly emotional statement that the close DOES matter, whether you believe it or not, because it's the truth). Without, of course, providing any evidence of it being the "truth".
As he also says that "even the Open matters", I can't help but wonder if he's talking about daily bars?,
Well, the daily chart does have extra significance, due to the stop, or break from trading that creates clearly defined sessions. However, where the bar opens on the intra day charts matters as well.
Many times I have watched a market on the 10 minutes chart, and it has a fully formed bar, where the price just sits there untill the open of the next bar. Then it starts jumping around and moving again, only to stall about 8 minutes in and pause till the new bar opens before movement occurs once more.
I have seen this so often over the years that I have concluded that I am not the only one trading like this. it has to be wide spread amongst the large professional market movers.
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YES! Definitely!I understand your thinking and where you are getting at,
and I can agree about the wierdness about the whole thing and it seems a little strange indeed,
the fact is that it wouldn't matter on which timeframe you are looking at,
you have swing highs and lows on all the different timeframes don't you?
with your reasoning the highs and lows wouldn't matter either, but they do because they
indicate a turn in the market even if it's just a small one, a candle or a bar is based on time, why they have a very important factor is this, the highs and lows of a candle or bar creates support and resistance aswell as swing highs and lows even if that is psychological, and where a candle or bar closes the next one will open,
it is a great advantage if a candle would open above support or below resistance in the direction you would like to trade in, for that to happend, a candle must first close above or below support or resistance which is the highs and lows of the candles, this is a very important fact in price action, there are many traders only trading this. so the high low and close is very important and it does matter. Yes I have backtested it and this is mostly how I trade daily and Im profitable doing so.a breach of a high is very bullish and a breach of a low is very bearish but only if price can get the advantage to close the candle above or below a support resistance because then the next candle will open in your favor and price will have support in that direction, you also wouldn't have a clue what might happend if you don't wait for the close first. reading price action is an artform, practice practice:) yes you would take profit if a candle is closing above and below a high or low counter to your direction, so you would have to wait, because then price would have support buying counter move and you wouldn't want to be in on the trade anymore. this is all strange and it is not easy to understand, that is because this is all psychological. the market is all about psychology, a support and resistance line shouldn't to your theory have any significant meaning either, price go up up up and then suddenly stops and hangs around and going sideways, everyone knows there is no invissible line there stopping price, it's all psychological, the big bank traders are protecting this level because it is in their intrest doing so. yes they are definitely looking at highs and lows and closes.
Paragraphs man, paragraphs!!
Other than that, you are spot on!
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According to your logic that time frame does not matter, they are all equally important, the implication is that every tick is important,if not,what is the smallest size wave i can "surf" ?. Though i call myself a technical trader,based on your statements,which you claim are non negotiable,i can sympathize with those who believe TA is pseudoscience at best and a crock of sh##t at worst.Well, the smallest size wave would be up to you. Although I follow the waves on the 3 minute, 10 and 30 minute chart, I really use them to time entries on large waves I see on the daily charts. Most of the time, it's just to make sure the current, smaller wave, is going the same way when I jump in. It's an effort to minimize draw down time that works really well for me.
Sometimes, especially in choppier markets, I zoom down to the 60 minute, or even 30 minute, and use the 3 an 10 minute for my timing.
So, it's not about the size of the smallest wave, it's about knowing which one is the best to try and ride. That is something only experience can tell you.
Another way to answer your question would be to look at the potential wave ion question, and try and calculate if it will last a few bars. If so will you clear commissions with a profit?
A super small 1 tick wave will almost never be big enough to clear your commissions. The 10 minute on the other hand, very often is.
The 3 minute is "Ify" at best, short of a real power move. That is why I only use them as instruments of timing.
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Exactly who are you talking about here? Do you think the big players give a damn about a bar chart,let alone sit around waiting for a bar to close? In your theory,which time period are they looking at? (those traders who are waiting for a bar to close) .I mean,what's the ratio of traders looking at a 5min bar to close compared to those looking at 1 min bars at any given time? I assume you must know this,otherwise it seems to me to be a baseless theory and could definately affect your trading results.Don't tell me you back tested this without knowing what the ratios were...wonder what other things outside the box you didn't consider.Ah well,screw strategy,money management is king ....isn't it?How would the placing of limit orders/resting inventory fit in with your theory? How would my profit target work with this theory? If my target gets hit before the close of a bar,why would i wait for the bar to close,and how do i know if i should wait for a 1 min bar or a 5 min bar,or any bar....how many bars must close before i can get a drink?
But wait,maybe i shouldn't be looking at bars at all.No, maybe i should be looking at candles,is the close of a candle more important? Are some candles more important than others depending on the name tag? Maybe i'm not looking for a bar to close,maybe i'm waiting for a hammer,or maybe i'm looking to get hammered at the bar (before it closes)
Tricky isn't it? Because the more questions you ask yourself,the more answers you have to come up with and who knows how many you can get right?
When i go drinking (which is pretty rare nowadays) i don't care too much what the bar is called, but i do care about the area where it's located,because the" herd" tends to affect the atmosphere.....
You sound way to emotional for Futures trading.
In my experience, everything matters. The high and low matter, the close matters, and the OPEN even matters.
Psychologically, where the bar closes DOES matter to the mass of technical traders. It is a sign of confirmation, at the very least. It does not matter what you believe, this is the truth.
As for the time frame, it does not matter. Since, with each different time frame, you are surfing a different sized wave, the close on a 1 minute time frame is just as critical for the wave there, as the same close on a daily chart and the larger wave you surf on it.
If your account if big enough, and you can afford the draw downs, it even matters on the weekly and monthly charts.
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SPT, if you desire civility, I'm afraid you've come to the wrong place...Which is precisely why I don't come here often.
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Aren't traders fairly mean-spirited, egocentric sociopaths by definition?Anyway, its all in fun...
Phantom
I am on other trading forums as well. Here, for some reason, there is a very high degree of 'Tearing others down'. It reminds me of certain martial arts forums that are devoted to exposing frauds in the martial arts. It becomes a culture of attack and snickering at others.
I don't approve of the whole 'Cut others down to boost yourself' mentality. It just creates a hyena/jackle environment, that is really not very productive.
Does Anyone Truly Make a Living Solely Trading the E-minis???
in E-mini Futures
Posted
Less than 1 year?
Do you trade as well as you do math? Maybe you should not be challenging people and calling names. You might do better in social settings.
As for my system, no. I don't have an audit on it. I don't share my personal method with anyone. I don't trade anyone's accounts with it, and I didn't intend to. So other than general conversation, it's not relevant to anyone but me. The computerize algorithm is what I have records for.