tomerok

Point Taken. Thank You. Tomer.

Hi Db. Thank you for time, i tried to practice your advice today in real time but failed (it will take time....), so i won't bother you with the trade i took today, instead i would like to share a thought i had in my post-analysis. I realize that a broken trend line is not a trigger for exit, it's more of a signal to start looking for any other signs to invalidate the original cause for entering the trade in the first place. I prefer to get out when both trigger line and swing low are broken, that signals for me (not including tape reading) that something is wrong and support had just gone away for now. Today I noticed some past resistance around 2692, price tested it 3-4 times and then a swing low was broken, if i were in a trade that is where i would get out (following the rule i outlined before), clearly that was not case today, i tried replaying the data and could not find something to signal me to hang on. I'm guessing i'm stepping into the zone in which you have to "know" the special characteristics of the instrument you trade which only long hours of screen time will buy am i missing something? Attached is the narrated price action as i would have taken it. Thank You. Tomer.

Db, the arrows and entry notations are real-time trades marked by my trading software. the circles (green,red,blue,grey) are the trades i marked for my self after the trading day is over. I feel i'm wrong in grasping price action in real time so i wanted to share the real-time price action analysis and post (after hours...) analysis. i've used the original picture and added a number to point out areas of interest (at least for me) 1 - I noticed the pre-market resistance, price tested it , big sellers in the tape and price does not react to them as it reacts to big buyers,that is a long which i also took in real time 2 - as price kept going up i drew the trend line and once we got up to point 2 price stalled for 2 candles, that is when i moved my stop in real time, clearly i was wrong and that was only a pullback, got stopped and i drew the second trend line. 3 - we had a relatively long pullback (relative to the previous up move) and i was looking for a change in direction, when price completed it's pullback and continued it's up, i drew the third trend line. that's when i decided to sit on my hands and wait for something i recognize before i enter any more trades. 4 - I noticed price tested support for the 3rd time and was on alert for a short if we break that support. 5 - that is a short once support got broken, in real time i was not feeling comfortable taking it because i thought it's a shake out. 6 - I plotted a trend line, and because we had a large move down couple of bar ago (the "shakeout") i looked to enter short past/below the lowest point, this would tell me price is still headed down, that decision was taken in real-time. 7 - we broke the first trend line just as i entered short in step 6, i started to lose my confidence in the trade, i plotted the second trend line down, and that is when i completely lost my confidence in the move down and moved my stop which was taken. when i review the PA at the end of the day i could see i was clearly wrong to exit, no swing high were broken, just the trend lines, price was just slow on getting down nothing more.... (at least that was what i told myself ) 8 - as price marked lower i decided to go short again since the prior bar was with a bigger thrust then the previous ones and not wait for a pullback, again the trend line was breached and i started to lose confidence in the trade, once again i plotted another trend line down and once it broke i remembered the last trade outcome and decided to give this one more room to breath, i decided to place the stop on the swing high (just below the 7 figure) and got stopped 9 - when i got stopped i felt i was not in sync with what is going on and decided to stop for the day. when i did my post analysis for the day i realized i was "stuck" in the smaller picture and could have played it very differently (the colored circles note just that.) 2 trades for the entire day.... the opening trade near figure 1, with the exception of not getting out only if a swing low is breached (thus risking some profit already achieved), or only getting out if a "major trend line" is breached. the second trade would be a short near figure 5 as we breach support and trail the stop after every swing high, exit is near figure 9. Tomer.

Hi Db. Started reading what you mentioned at post #27 (actually expanding it even more as i'm going through the material). my first reaction to the ideas and theory was to get rid of everything. got rid of the Range bars,MA's,Pace of tape,MACD, and multiple time frame view when trading, decided to leave a 1 minute OHLC bar and 2 time and sales windows (1 filtered for large blocks) quite frankly after a couple of hours it feels easier and more natural to look at daily price action. i think my next step is also get rid of my daily routine of long to short term TA in which i try to guess the daily trend, it seems to me that price goes and will go which direction it find suitable (who am i to try and predict it). also i'm trying to get rid of "colors" on my chart and time and sales (bid/ask), so i can focus only on price. I wanted to share my post market analysis (round plot) and real-time trades (NT7 plot), plotted both on the same chart Trade 1 I got long because R (from pre-session) was clearly broken after price tested LOD In real time i played safe since the up thrust was over and i was looking for profit taking. clearly in post analysis i could have stayed longer and should have waited for a decent pullback (reaction). Trade 2 After we broke the up trend line and a decent pullback (reaction completed), short as price goes below the decent reaction low Target is there because currently i'm trying to exit 2-4 tick beyond the last reaction high/low I left the trend lines as i draw them in real time, clearly i was stuck in the macro picture and plotting multiple trend lines as price went down after 11:00 that's why i did not take trade 2. you can see that in real time played it differently, i was not so sure with the PA going on

Thank you for the pointers. since i still have questions i'll go do my homework before posting them. Tomer.

Hi DB. Could you explain why did you wait to go long ? On previous examples you usually went long on the first bar which close above the bar who broke the trend line. Thank you. Tomer

Thanks, I will... :-)

Hi, anyone noticed any correlation between the DX and the YM \ TF contracts, something like the CL and the DX ... I find the CL too "brutal" for me with the sudden long moves, and considering both contracts as an alternative. Thank you. Tomer.

I want to thank you guys for taking the time and answering my question. i apologize for taking the time for participating in the thread i started, been away + it took some time for all the ideas / questions to settle in. you sure have answered my question and raised a lot more http://cdn.traderslaboratory.com/forums/images/FH_Sahm/smilies/custom2/smile.gif I could not have asked for better guidance then this thread gave me and i felt a need to post a thank you.

Hi, that's my first post over here. so first things first... hello everybody, i appreciate any comment/response. I'm currently setting up my goals for my day trading and would appreciate your feedback. I paper traded daily on futures for the last six month, i used the time for educate myself..... mainly blogs, forums and books. I opened up a live account with 10K and would really like to know if I'm shooting to high on my goals. my first goal is 300$ a day meaning 6000$ a month until July 2012. I plan on making trading my main and single profession so i can quit my day job. I appreciate any comment , tip or other realistic goals that will light my journey. Thank you. Tomer.