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TRADEZILLA

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Posts posted by TRADEZILLA

  1. Posted

    @Steve,

     

    Fully automated trading do take skills of-course but there is no execution factor to deal with as its automated.. Execution is what separates discretionary traders.. how they choose the set ups, how they hold/fold and etc..

     

    I think there may be some connection between past business success and interpersonal relationships to a small extent only in that it might reveal some emotional maturity but we all know its not uncommon for very successful people in other endeavors to fail at trading..

     

    Trading is an individual endeavor and self awareness is clearly more important than social skills.. True emotional maturity and immaturity can be seen in the way people respond emotionally.. Often you will see that those who appear humble in presentation are often very egocentric in reality.. A sure way to see this in trading forums is when another trader does not focus on content but on the person, wanting to be right and etc.

     

    The way we respond emotionally in our interactions may be telling in how we might respond in our trading decisions when reading the market and seeing it the way we want to see it rather than what it is in its totality..

     

    I've seen this many many times in trading forums and I'm sure others has as well..

  3. Posted

    Focus on being good at what you do and the wealth will follow.. The only way you'll be good at what you do is if you enjoy it and have a passion for it..

     

    When wealth is no longer the primary goal, the wealth will come to you..

     

    Wealth should not only be measured in material ways, but also other inner ways..

     

    People often become wealthy materially from all kinds of reasons.. There are no guarantees of anything.. The only thing aside from dumb luck is preparation and skills, and even that don't guarantee anything but will increase your edge..

  4. Posted

    Everyone brings out really good points and I can't disagree with any of the posts really.. This might be a simple solution; For those that may have psychological obstacles that are hard to identify or pin point, why not focus on an automated approach to trading, where psychology becomes a non-issue.. I've heard many traders have found success with that approach so it must be possible.

     

    Discretionary trading is execution and skill based and how we respond psychologically has high impact on execution and read on the market.. Whenever traders respond unreasonably despite the reason why (which can be all over the board), I automatically assume they're loosing traders unless they trade automated where psychology and emotional response has no impact..

  5. Posted

    the main reasons- they are not well learned or they are suffering psychological problems.

     

    I think this says it all..

     

    Inexperience looses at the beginning, but psychological issues prevent progress..

     

    I have seen this over and over again amongst lots and lots of traders.. Many traders gained a lot of knowledge over the years but can't put it together to make it profitable.. Often its clear they have lots of blind spots that comes from psychological issues..

  6. Posted · Edited by TRADEZILLA

     

    I dont think anyone doubted Rogers claims so much as as apparent constant marketing that he comes up with - and as for a generous offer even though he wont accept anyone from TL as a client as he will not charge them, -"I WILL NOT ACCEPT ANY PAYMENT IN ANY FORM FROM ANY TL FORUM SUBSCRIBER" - and only full fee paying clients will be charged...Not sure how that will work............he might not think so, but many others perceive it to be continual marketing.....:2c:.

     

    ....and the clarity that he says he can make on average $1000 per day using 2 contracts - he verified he can do this - so this is directly related to this thread.....

     

    Roger seemed to get a little up tight by this and wanted to bring into question my review last year - this room was largely positive - I even offered to not further discuss it unless he wanted to....#76 - which he then proceeded to bring up his systems again.....#78. Basically the continual marketing......

     

    As for his room- i just did not think it was good value and there were other reasons i gave for why i thought it might have issues.

     

    Even though in his room he trades SIM - they are live calls, and he provides no evidence of this in terms of statements.....all this has been discussed before in the previous threads.......I was even a supporter of his, but he appears not to like any criticism at all.

    Anyone is free to contact him and trial his room for themselves and make their own mind up.....whats fairer than that.

     

    If he's truly verified that, that's an impressive feat regardless of sim or live and that's already head and shoulders above most trading educators, which typically won't provide either. Who cares if he's "excessively" self promoting by his claims that are already verified.. why should that bother anybody else.. Its the trading educators that makes such claims that don't verify that trading forums should harass but typically they have lots of supporters...lol, the irony..

     

    HOWEVER, if its only in sim and not live, it also means there is no evidence of self mastery with the psychological aspect of trading but that can also be a very personal thing as every trader has different risk tolerance and constitutional makeup. For traders seeking to be profitable, they should 1'st learn to be profitable in sim first and then go live.. Maybe Mr. Felton can help them at least achieve the 1'st part.. When they go live, their inner demons will come out, but at least they won't have to worry about both a workable edge AND their psychology at the same time.. Psychology is a very personal thing and each has to work that out on their own by being honest and self reflective about it..

     

    If Mr. Felton is indeed unable to take any criticism, I would take that as a psychological weakness, and can explain why he can sim trade like a champ and can't duplicate it live. Ideally you want to learn from someone that has both a good understanding of the market AND someone that understands how psychology is integrated into the method.. Thus far, it sounds to me like Mr. Felton has verified one aspect but not the other.

  7. Posted · Edited by TRADEZILLA

     

    But there is absolutely no system in the world that anyone can give me or sell that I (or anyone else) can then take and start making money. Not in a week, not in a month, perhaps not even in a year...especially with little or no guidance or training.

     

    I don't know why so many traders are so boneheaded that they are convinced that the "secret" is in the system. Never has been and never will be. Once a trader has lost enough time, tears, sweat, money and hair, they will start to realize that the real secret lies somewhere else. Look in the mirror and have an epiphany. Only then will lasting success be within your grasp.

     

    I'm typically very suspicious of vendors but reading many of Roger's comments, he does sound like he knows what he's talking about.. He's made a pretty generous offer and it shouldn't hurt to find out if it resonates with you.. Here's a really easy way to settle it..

     

    See some RECENT statements or see some real time trade calls over a period.. That should settle it real quick.. If statements and real time trade calls is consistent with the claims, see if that method resonates with you or if you can integrate it with what you're already using. Real simple.. no need to beat him up..

     

    Here are 2 trusims to recognize in public forums:

     

    1 - although there are lots of trading educators that can't trade, certainly there has to be some that can...

    2 - trading involves a lot of ego and that's why public trading forums often gets into ego wars and typically, unsuccessful traders are resentful of traders claiming success.

     

    but the easy way to settle it if anyone is serious is to either show statements or give real time trades.. anything other than that are just claims really..

  8. Posted

    Sorry I had to wait till today to get an example REAL TIME so I could show you. So this is what was going on before the ES open.

     

    Let me decifer the bones/charts. The one on the far left is the bonds 30 year. The middle one is the 10 year notes and the right is the ES. The ES chart is a SPLIT chart so that means that the profile you see is the overnight action on the ES. The profile next to it yesterdays action. The bonds and notes are both RTH (Real Time Hours). So no over night action on them. The notes and bonds open at 6:20 my time and the ES opens at 7:30 my time as well. The "A" period on the bonds and notes is set for 10 mins not the usual 30 mins

     

    So the bonds/note opened and in the first 10 mins went up then down. You can CLEARLY see that the 30 years get into yesterdays range and the notes did not. Divergence!!! But which way? Hard to say but so far they are both going back up to the open. So far it looks like rejection off of yesterdays high and we are moving back up.

     

    Now look at the ES and you will notice that its trading near its over night highs. Well not close per say. You can see its at 1407 and the high is 1411. There is no gap in the ES signaling some rally. But the bonds might rally today. If they reject off yesterdays highs and go up all day then that means the ES will go...

     

    DOWN ALL DAY.

     

    I am willing to bet (and I did) that folks will come in JUST LOOKING AT THE ES and get long!!!!! If you just look at the ES it looks like rejection over night and there are folks going to get long first thing. The information they are looking at is old and the bonds are telling a different story. My guess was at the open we go higher. My plan was to start shorting every level I have up above till either the bonds look like they are going lower or till something sticks in the ES. Took me 2 shots. So far that black line at 11.50 is the HOD. My guess is down and we look below 1400. Watch for folks to get long there and crushed all day long. Does this mean we go down for the next few months?? Does this mean that Obama is a sure winner??? Does this mean that the Mayan calendar is correct and expect the word to end on the 21st of December??? Stay tuned.

     

    Just from what I see today my bias is to the down side.

     

    Here are my trades the blue one is a buy at 1/2 size. I didn't want to get caught with a full boat with all ores in the water. Second was a short and it got hit full size. The third was a winner. Moved over the box so you can see the volume. But the bottom of the red box is my entry and the top of the blue is my entry there. Look at what the notes are doing there. Dumping volume and getting ready to go up a bit. So that means all the folks in the ES that are on the blue side are about to be trapped. And there is alot of blue up there.

     

    Hope this gives a clearer picture of what I was talking about.

     

    When watching both the 10 year and the 30 year bonds, do you give more weight to one over the other? I know the old SP futures floor traders used to watch primarily the 30 year so is watching the 10 year in addition redundant? Its interesting that in your example there was some divergence between the 10/30 year giving 2 stories about the ES opening.. How often does that occur and how do you typically read into that?

  9. Posted · Edited by TRADEZILLA

    It is correlated with gold and silver, but gold and silver are not really "industrial" metals. However, copper is very much so. demand for copper futures often will start to tick up as businesses make more semi conductors, electrical appliances, etc. In fact, nearly anything tech related uses copper as a raw material to at least some degree... so for these reasons, copper is frequently viewed as sort of "leading indicator". At very least, it's more correlated to the S&P than probably any other raw good or raw commodity.

     

    Here is a link to a few graphs that show the degree of correlation between various markets. As you can see, of the various commodities that have some statistically relevent positive correlation to the movement of the S&P, it's actually copper that has the highest and most consistent degree of correlation, when compared to gold, the U.S. dollar index, crude oil...etc.

     

    S&P 500 Relationships & Correlations - TheArmoTrader | TheArmoTrader

     

    Interesting with the copper and that does make sense.. How do you use it with your trading? Do you consider it leading/lagging or do you primarily watch for divergence as a warning sign?

     

    It will be interesting going forward as mentioned that although copper should be correlated with gold/silver, there is some fundamental reasons to believe gold is positioned to move higher whereas the SPX may be positioned to move lower. If that was to happen, it will be interesting to see how copper responds to that scenario.

     

    I agree with your comment that although hind sight analysis can teach some things, that's not how the money is made and that really is why we're all trading, to make money and not to give great hind sight analysis..... I'll readily give my real time analysis and trade calls though I find this rare anywhere.. Other than showing the dom or pnl, everything comes out over a short time period real time in terms of the value of the analysis or the correct use of analysis tools... TL don't have a live chat room which is really the easiest way to do that.. I think it would be a lot of fun and a great learning experience to have such a room and take turns moderating for the day so as not to have tons of confusing calls in it with various rationale..

     

    I trade a combination of levels and PA. I don't predict where price will go ahead of time or what levels are going to hold and etc, but will read it real time in terms of how price should be behaving and how it is behaving and what that means within the current context.

     

    The opening trade is based on where we open within the structure of price. Where in the balance area, and where the closest s/r are and how price is behaving. There's a contextual aspect. I also look at some correlated markets but prioritize what I see.. I can give plenty of hind sight analysis but the trade has to survive real time entries, exits and stop outs to really assess the value of the analysis and approach real time..

  10. Posted

    Well, you got an answer from Col.... now I'll give you mine. To save time, I also use a type of market profile analysis, but you've already seen this from Col so I won't post that aspect up.

     

    For myself, I put most of my emhpasis on recent daily,weekly, and monthly candle price action, proximity to support/resistance levels, as well as trend, market symmetry, distance and momentum of current swing, and finally, a sort of deductive logical analysis regarding what price levels likely provide high levels of liquidity... and how price has reacted to those levels... and then where the next level is likely to be that will provide liquidity again.

     

    I also repeat much of this process in several correlated markets, including the 10 year bond futures, the EUR/USD, and copper futures, and of course I also include the NQ... and I also glance at the cash equivlient markets in the NQ and ES.... just to make sure the levels i'm watching in the futures are the same as in the cash markets... as well as any other market I find may be relevent (sometimes crude, which these days is directly correlated, sometimes the DX...which tends to be inversely correlated, etc)

     

    If I had to isolate just the most prevalent, heavily weighted factors that I consider...it would be recent daily candle price action, in conjunction with distance and momentum of current swing, and obvious S/R levels on the daily chart.

     

    Ok, so here's the pics and thought process breakdown. I have only included a pic of the 3 most important elements. However, I will include another post that later (probably tomorrow) that outlines more of these ideas and shows how I put them all together.

     

    But, honestly, these 3 are a damn good start..and probably will give me 50%-60% of my bias just as they are.

     

     

     

     

     

    Lets take a current chart of the ES, and break down what is going on.

     

    Click in the pictures below, and you'll see my explanation for how I look to understand each concept.

     

    I thought copper would be correlated with gold and silver.. Curious why copper is singled out as correlated to the ES?

  11. Posted · Edited by TRADEZILLA

    New traders will clearly learn much faster if taught and guided by a successful seasoned trader but most of the heavy lifting is in the EXECUTION and dealing with the NUANCES and DISSONANCE that comes with trading. New traders should not have to pay for general wisdom like "keep your losses small" and "hold your winners" and etc.. or pay for hindsight analysis and pay big bucks for it, which seems to be the norm like sheep eager to be fleeced.. Think about it; you can make up any method (rational or irrational) you can imagine in 5min, and I can easily pick out all the hind sight winners for you and show you how it worked perfectly.. It means nothing if you can't survive the stop..

     

    Unfortunately, most places that teach trading will teach everything except the execution and charge a small fortune and they have thousands of students that buys into that.. Every method has some validity in various market conditions.. Its the ability to capture that opportunity that new traders need to learn, the execution.. the ability to sort thru the dissonance and nuances.. This means the ability to read the market real time..

     

    If a mentor can show their execution real time and give real time rationale, I think the student will be very fortunate to have found such a mentor.. Otherwise, I'd say try to get some good free tips from other good traders in the forums and save your money and learn by blowing a few accounts trying out your own method.. that will teach a lot..

     

    I don't think trading real time and explaining things real time is too difficult for a competent trader as they know what they're looking for within various contexts.. That's what new traders should seek when they're ready to pay to learn.. Everything else is free on the forums and internet.. You have to learn by doing but someone to help you read the market real time and guide the execution will warp speed your learning curve and that I believe is money well spent..

  12. Posted

    You get a good heads up considering the treasuries open 70 mins prior to the equities. Is the 10 year making new lows and the ES isn't making new highs? Is the 10 year trading in the previous days range and the ES is opening out of range? The bonds do a great job of forecasting the temperament of the ES.

     

    This question is for both Colonel and ForexTraderX,

     

    How would you use that information in your trade? For example,

     

    If the 10yr is making new lows and ES isn't making new highs, does that mean ES is weak and short it or perhaps buy support as ES may be supported by the weak bond market?

     

    If the 10 yr is trading in the previous day's range and the ES is opening out of range, would you see that as ES eventually coming back into range and fade a level or ES is behaving especially strong since its moving out of range regardless of what the bond is doing?

     

    Thx,

    TZ

  13. Posted

    The markets are a series of squeezes on liquidity at different levels/prices, that's about it. Probably easier to learn how to spot a squeeze than to guess the colour of the next spin.

     

    The question is can it be recognize b4 it happens? If it can still be capitalized upon by seeing it real time as price is running, how much risk is involved in trading in that direction? One of the simple ways to recognize stop runs is to watch the speed of the tape. As the tape starts to run faster but the size is not picking up, its usually stop runs.. and you will often see new volume coming in as bigger size moves into the direction.

     

    However, by the time you see this, you're about 2 pts late with another 2-3 pts profit potential left so the R/R is hsa often escaped..

  14. Posted

    Interesting response TZ.

    Although there are several methods (techniques) of trading say the ES, essentially they amount to the same thing.

    ....Buy as price is about to rise and sell as price is about to fall....

     

    When we accept this premise, then the challenge becomes a philosophical one, not a mathematical one as a heck of a lot of people seem think.

    I say this because of the nature of the questions that People ask here on ET many of which end up in spirited debates... very sadly it is like watching the tail wag the donkey.

     

    My belief, which I have stated before on ET, is that Retail trading is 80% physiological, 18% market knowledge and 2% mathematics.

     

    The first two (physiology and knowledge) should be rolled together and it is from here that we determine our philosophy from which we will trade ..... everything we learn about The Market and about Our-self must be tested for delusion .... either we are correct about Our-self and about the Market or we are wallowing in delusion and we must try again, going back to square one until we succeed.

     

    As a result of this exercise, the actual mechanics of how we trade will become self evident and are by and large tailored to The Traders style.

     

    But the outcome is the same.

     

    Numbers like 90%+ failure rate and 10,000 hours screen time have no meaning since we are one single person and we will develop at our own pace.

     

    I believe the physiology/psychology has to be put into context with the way we're supposed to trade with our method. Ultimately, our method needs to have a mathematical edge.

  15. Posted

    Look how many millions and millions of dollars the casinos take in each year.The Blackjack tables in Vegas give the house a 51% Edge, to scale, 1% is massive.

     

    On a more personal level, pull up a compounding interest calculator and throw in 8% over 30 years, change it to 9%, 10% etc. see how just 1 percent can make a huge difference. I think most traders lose because they aren't able to capitalize on there edge to scale or with any size.

     

    The more $ you manage the smaller % you need to make to keep increasing your bottom line. What % would a new trader have to make to bring in 50k a year on a 10k account, 50k account, or even 100k account. As the years go by in my trading I've come to realize it's simply a #s game, well a mental game of #s :)

     

    Enjoy the day,

    Tim

     

    Its because the edge is so small that discipline is so important and so difficult. Often your edge will be in doubt because its so small. However, if it is real and you trust it, you will be the casino.

  17. Posted

    Looking at a 1hr candle chart that covers 120hrs of price movements is how most come to the 'random conclusion'..."Yeah it's random".

     

    But, the chart action is just a trail, it's a track.

     

    Do you make trails and tracks throughout your day? Of course you do. Is your day just aimlessly meaningless and random? You don't have to answer this.

     

    Behind the apparently random daily tracks of everyone or anyone there lies a story, a job, a meaning. It all only becomes non-random once you know and see a little more than just the tracks on a map.

     

    Are you referring to fundamentals?

  19. Posted

    Hi TZ,

     

    Yes, I am describing a realisation and yes it flows directly into an 'edge' that exists each and every day.

    You appear to me to be thinking of the overall behaviour of the day when you write 'trend/bracket/congestion and etc..'

     

    I have no interest in this behaviour until the day becomes yesterday, in which case it may have some influence on how today trades out....

     

    Primarily I am only interested in each Price Wave and that is what I trade.

    Some days present more trade-able PWs to me than others, but on days that present fewer PWs, they tend to be longer in duration.

     

    TZ, please consider me as a simple person who tries to relax into simplicity each day

    by seeing the simplicity in the things I do.

     

    This attitude neither makes me right now wrong ... it just keeps me simple.

     

    John,

    I don't question the edge of your method. I've seen so many different methods work that I know there are many ways to do this. I know this trader that trades off elliot wave only with a line on close chart only and does incredibly well. I can't see what he sees but his results validates his method. I know another guy who reads price only with nothing else and his results validates his method. Here's the clencher, I've even seen a consistently profitable scalper that almost never has a losing day trading. He feels his method is so simple and yet I feel my method is simpler, but he disagrees. I feel a bit uncomfortable placing trades off their methods and they feel a bit uncomfortable placing trades off my method but they all work.. so I don't question anybody's edge.. I was only suggesting that a realization does not translate to edge but obviously you have your method that is wave based where market conditions have less impact..

    TZ

  21. Posted

    @TRADEZILLA Any decent model will work in all market conditions. That being said, 99%+ of publicly available models don't work. I must also add that when I say working in all market confitions, that simply means you are smart enough to know the conditions (which will be in your model) of when to switch it off. Pretty basic really. Most models don't work in really low volatility, so simply put a filter in there to prevent it happening. So it isn't an IF at all.

     

    Y, by knowing which model to apply in advance is the key and I believe it is possible with an accuracy greater than 50%. I can usually get the market conditions right with up 80% accuracy but that doesn't mean I can trade with an 80% accuracy, but its an edge nevertheless and helps me plan the day..

  22. Posted

    This conversation is getting too messy and heading in too many directions so I will try to keep things simple and in point form.

     

    4. If the model is properly optimized to true market characteristics (i.e not curved fitted) then there is no reason whatsoever that a mechanical model cannot continue to work for years into the future.

     

     

     

    That is a VERY big if.. most models will not have an edge in all conditions, as they will have their favorable and unfavorable conditions. I have not seen a model that will maintain its edge in all market conditions, and that's where a live trader can have an edge in recognizing market conditions before a model can.

  23. Posted

    Casinos are profitable because 99.9% of the punters in the casinos are in there for entertainment reasons.

     

    If a serious punter is detected they are generally told to enjoy the rest of the night, but don't come back. Having the right to refuse entry into the casino is one hell of an edge.

     

    It certainly is, and nobody can refuse your entry into the trading arena. However, in all fairness, trading has much more variables than gambling so the edge is more complex and more difficult to locate but the same theory applies nevertheless..

  24. Posted

    Another Truism Tradezilla, I wholeheartedly agree with you.

     

    If you have the strength and courage to move yourself beyond a state of self delusion as Rande mentions, you are then in a position to view price with an OPEN MIND.

     

    Then and only then, the obvious will become obvious ..crystal clear in fact to a point where you wonder what all the fuss is about...

    If you think you have moved beyond delusion but you still cannot see the puzzle then you have simply deluded yourself yet again... so back to square one.

     

    But when you suddenly see Price in an entirely different light and your view of price does not shift from one day to the next or one month/year to the next then ...

     

    This is your EDGE.

     

    This is what you can count on all day and everyday if you are day trading ES and others.

    All you have to do is to maintain your state of OPEN MINDEDNESS all day and every day and your edge will do the work.

     

    Is this possible ... and if so, is this difficult.

    The answer is no and yes if you are inclined to think this way.

    Or the answer is yes and no if you are prepared to commit yourself to change ... radial life altering change.

     

    John,

    I think what you're describing is a realization and not necessarily an edge. An edge has to put the odds in your favor everytime you take a risk. Knowing that price moves the same everyday does not in itself increase your odds of trading in the right direction or not getting stopped out. I don't think price moves the same every day because markets have different types of days, trend/bracket/congestion and etc.. In addition, mixed in there is a lot of random behavior.. It is possible but certainly difficult because the slight edge that is available is almost always very well hidden..

    TZ

  25. Posted

    there is not one good single answer on why more than 90% of small traders lose.

     

    I think it can all be summed up in 2 answers, either the trader has not found a reliable edge that is comprehensive or their psychology/discipline does not allow them to give their edge a chance to kick in.

     

    I believe the biggest delusion many traders have is that they believe the market allows for a big edge. Any edge that can be found will be slight, but its the trust in this slight edge that will do wonders for your results. However, your edge needs to be comprehensive and not just entries, meaning good probability in both entries and exits, R/R, risk management and etc..

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