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phantom
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Posts posted by phantom
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I use 30 minute charts as my primary trading tool. I may go down to a ten minute chart for entries. It is much easier, for me more relaxing, and vastly less noise to watch a longer time frame chart. I also find that the patterns developed in the 30 minute charts offer much better trading.opportunities and bigger moves then shorter ones.
Will,
I've been preaching the use of 10-30 minute charts as the way to overcome noise for almost a year at this site...Glad to see another trader doing the same and professing it!
No matter what others say (Steve 46 loved to try and bash my work as well) you are doing a good job and your are beginning to be appreciated here at TL!!!
Thanks again for your contributions.
Luv,
Phantom
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If you are who I think you are (Phantom of the Pits), I read your stuff 10 - 15 yrs ago - is that you?
No, Tom. I like to think that my writing style is much better than Art Simpson and POP! (LOL).
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The answer lies within you.. You have to have the tenacity to sort it out and find it. If you are constantly changing what you do, chasing the next "new thing", hot poster, etc. then you are lost and need to rethink what you are doing and find your way. If you've been here - done this and find you are running in a circle chasing the magic combination to unlock the puzzle then stop chasing an illusion.What you say is generally true, Tom, but its also true that certain techniques CAN be replicated, with good results. And what's the point of having a trading forum if not to discuss ways to improve results...should we talk about the weather?
Sometimes (not all the time, of course), the difference between a winning trader and a losing trader is merely a small insight that unlocks the door to the aha moment and changes the entire perception of the markets...
So we keep trudging on and passing ideas onto others in hopes that someone, somewhere will get that tidbit of information that pushes them over the line, and then our conversation has not been completely in vain.
At least that's why I participate.
Luv,
Phantom
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To be completely fair to BHS, and others who may not know how to utilize this information, may I make a small request to Spookywill?
It would be immensely helpful if you provided a modicum of rationale for your entries, exit targets, etc. Instead of "I entered at this level which was at X and the Globex high was at Y..." it would definitely help if you were to say something akin to "I entered here because I saw price rejection at this level back at point Z and the market has a tendancy to do such and such between said price levels...whatever..."
It never hurts to supply a little insight to your decision-making process along the way.
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But a handful of trades . . . it's pretty meaningless . . . what am I meant to do with that information?BHS,
The man is trying to show you trades as they are happening, in pseudo-realtime.
I don't see how anyone can casually say that the info is useless, unless what they are really saying is "please spoon feed me because I'm much too lazy to investigate this stuff on my own..."
So what you are meant to do with the info is to use it as fodder in your own system development. I don't know if you've read my thread or not, but I absolutely refused to spoon feed folks that wanted an easy way to profitability. I told several naysayers that if they were going to make the information I gave their own, then they were going to have to roll up their sleeves and test it for themselves. How else is someone going to gain the confidence to trade the info consistently?
But to say that without backtest results, the info is useless is really a slap in the face to the man that is supplying the info to you in the first place. So, show a little respect and be a little more sensitive to others, and who knows? He may open the floodgates...
I know that that's what made me want to give more...
Luv,
Phantom
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you're still my favorite chief trading advisor for a hedge fund listed on the internet. (Just kidding!)And you're still my useless trading bum with absolutely nothing helpful to say, whatsoever...
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Spookywill,
You just go right ahead and post whatever you want, and try to ignore the folks who don't appreciate your generosity.
Thanks for your kindness.
Luv,
Phantom
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I would take it one step further and say to be especially skeptical of people who offer advice claiming they've actually posted things of substance or something you can "take to the bank."Love and kisses,
gosu
People, like yourself, do seem to take things out of context...
My comment was, in fact, " look to those who have actually posted information that you can test for yourself and take to the bank."
The difference is subtle, but oh, so important.
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No "mechanical" method will ever do. You will never trust a mechanical method completely.Your method will always require the use of good judgment. Your method is THE way you form good judgment. Then it is not about using instinct. It is about OBEYING.
Sorry Gosu, but its obvious that you just don't know what you are talking about in this case...
I've been trading "mechanical" methods for years and I am a very successful trader, by any measure. In fact, I am currently the chief trading advisor for a hedge fund which is listed (on the internet) in the top 10 of last year's best funds. (Greater than a 25% return to our investors).
Goodoboy, its just like I said before. Most of the advice you'll receive is put forth by those who are not qualified to give the advice. That's just a cold, hard fact.
Be very careful where you place your trust when it comes to money matters. Most of these guys couldn't trade their way out of a paper bag, and that's the truth.
Furthermore, Joshdance challenged me earlier : "The important thing is for the poster to go through the process of finding what he personally likes, not trading something because someone else says it's good." If certain aspects of trading are not brought to the forefront, how will a newbie ever find these truths?
Most of the folks who post on this website will not offer anything of substance, mostly due to the fact that they have very little to offer at all... My advice is to look to those who have actually posted information that you can test for yourself and take to the bank. Everything else is, well, B.S.
Luv,
Phantom
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Hello,I been trading the ES for nearly 1 month. The results so far has been a loss of $700. My background is mostly buy and hold stocks for long term based on fundamentals, but for the last 6 months, I been studying technical analysis and money management.
My approach to trading the ES is technical analysis by identifying overbought/sold, chart patterns, support and resistance, and fibs retracement and then I either go LONG or SHORT on the ES with hopes of 3+ points. I only use MACD and RSI.
The losses occur, when I am not being patient or not verifying everything, before taking the trade.
My question to experienced ES traders is what do I need to learn to with ES to be more efficient? Should I get a mentor/coaching? Introduce more lower indicators in my evidence.
Currently I am reading Candlestick Charting Explained.
Any advice is welcome.
Hmmmmmm.
Okay, bud. So you've become interested in trading...
I definitely feel your pain! Most everything out there in the info sectors is dubious, at best. For the most part, if someone were successful in a potentially ridiculously lucrative field such as professional trader, and he were willing to freely pass that info on to someone else other than his/her own brothers or children, that would be unbelievable!
Nevertherless, from my experience, I think that the stock indices are NOT the weapon of choice for the inexperienced trading neophite...
In fact, even though I made a steady income for years trading NQ and ES, I discovered that there were other markets that offered much better returns on investment (in terms of both time AND dollars).
If you were to refocus your efforts into the, say, energies markets and coffee, for instance, YOU WOULD BE ABLE TO TRADE SUSTAINABLE SWINGS FOR MUCH LARGER RETURNS THAN THE AVERAGE ES TRADE USUALLY PRESENTS.
I fully realize that alot of the readers here on TL swear by the almighty ES contract. But I'm not bullstng here when I say that it is IMPERATIVE that you take every advantage in your arsenal while you are learning to spot sweet opportunities and milking them for big bucks... enough to overcome your losses and still pay the bills...
Also, and I cannot stress this enough, if you've been losing money on short term charts, stop looking at them! Start looking at 15-30 minute charts, especially during key times of the trading day (ie 8-10 am and 2-4 pm in New York) and trade trend continuations from consolidation breakouts (2-4 bars wide consolidations) and focus primarily on limiting losses. If you risk small amounts of capital until you score a big wave, the big wave WILL COME as long as you stick to the key trading times!
Use a trailing stop to manage your trades. Trading for 3 pts is nonsensical when you should be trying to pick up $900 and $1000 dollar per contract moves (and you will see these routinely in the energies and coffee). Its called "reward to risk." Why play Russian Roulette when you could be playing "Loaded Dice"???
I've probably given too much information...
Anyway, best of luck. Oh yes... and trading well does not come from a book or a mentor. It comes from confidence and experience in making winning trades pay well and limiting losing trades...
Luv,
Phantom
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Answer -1 Nah,just you:) (J.k))Answer -2 Only the ones that don't make money,the rest learn humility
Answer- 3 There you go with another cliche,what's a trader? i'm sick of the word "trader"
Mitsu, the question was rhetorical...
(Yes JD, that's the 2nd time I've posted a rhetorical question on your threads. What can I say?)
Like I said b4, its all in fun...
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I don't approve of the whole 'Cut others down to boost yourself' mentality. It just creates a hyena/jackle environment, that is really not very productive.
SPT, if you desire civility, I'm afraid you've come to the wrong place...
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Well, I have to say, this is a fairly mean spirited, ego centric discussion...Aren't traders fairly mean-spirited, egocentric sociopaths by definition?
Anyway, its all in fun...
Phantom
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Hi all...
The newsletter doesn't look feasible at this point. Since the idea of its inception was posted, there just hasn't been enough feedback to warrant the launch. This endeavor would be time consuming, to say the least, and the time/effort/energy is needed in other avenues of my life.
Still, just about everything you need to get profitable is in the thread. Sure, some of it is only a cursory look, but I'm pretty sure that anyone who rolls up the sleeves and goes to work to understand the principles I touched on here will be greatly rewarded.
Thank you to everyone who put their faith in me by personally responding. I'm sorry that I can't be of more help.
Have a good one,
Phantom
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Does it get unenjoyable?Only when the power goes out when you are in a bond trade immediately after the employment numbers were just released and you were still in the process of entering your risk stop...
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I live in a town that is 7000 ft above sea level, so the winters are a bitch. When its cold, I use my rowing machine and do upside down situps on my inversion table. I also do 100 rep stints with my jump rope.
In the summer I get out on the golf course as much as possible as well as do 20-30 minute speed walks. I also play basketball as much as 3 times a week.
At Christmas time I bought a pullup bar that attaches to my bedroom door and now I'm doing that, too.
At my age (52) its easy to talk myself out of getting out of my trading chair, but I force the issue. So I know how everyone feels...
Fortunately, my youngest son is 7 years old, so when I see him, we are constantly on-the-go. Baseball, golf, hoops, that sort of thing.
All the roadblocks to a healthy lifestyle are inside my head, that's for sure...
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It means that lots of people find lots of ways of being successful(and lots of ways of failing too!). If time is important to someone then that is great if it works for them. If volume is useful for someone else then that's great too. But markets evolve and change, so the less blinkered we can be the longer we can survive. Anyway, back to the thread!It was a rhetorical question...
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Unless you understand that you understand from mainly one viewpoint and therefore probably very little and that understanding is only one facet to being successful anyway, your success in this game is likely to be stunted. Learn a method well and use it well, but don't think that because your method has worked for you, it is the "right" way.What's this got to do with the price of eggs in London?
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Good grief
how ‘bout ?
Unless you understand structure, actions, time, and relations
You Understand NOTHING
My point, Zdo, is that the time element can be completely removed from the equation and one can still trade quite successfully. Examples include range bar chartists who trade price level breakouts with absolutely no time element involved whatsoever (notwithstanding the end of day flattening of positions).
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Unless You Understand Time, You Understand NOTHING.
Assuming that we are talking about chartists here,
I'm not too sure that this is an accurate statement...
More accurate might be the statement:
"Unless you understand structure, you understand nothing."
(or very little..)
Luv,
Phantom
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Now, as a price action trader sitting watching the DOM, what would have told me in the first instance that I was about to buy the low tick (or thereabouts), but in the second instance that the market would continue to fall? What specific signs would you have been looking for in terms of other trader's orders and the market's behaviour?
If there were a "one size fits all" answer to this question, we'd all be very rich!
But you get hints by looking at the sheer volume of orders resting above versus below the market. As the move depletes itself, so will the number of sell orders.
Also, since the ES market has a tendancy to making spike bottoms, you might look at how long the market lingers at a price point; the longer the market stays somewhere, the more likely it is to continue in the downtrend.
Luv,
Phantom
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As always, this is solely my opinion as there is little "truth" in the markets but rather we merely have opinions and our own view of things.Bar closes are not "important" in the sense that they mean anything significant to any significant number of people.
The close of a bar is a snapshot of a price traded in the flow of market activity.
Is the close of a bar truly meaningless? Let's have a look...
1. There is little truth in the markets. If this is a true statement, then the only truths are price, and more importantly, change in price. So far, so good.
2. Bar closes are not important to any significant number of people (variable time frame distortion, etc, muddles the picture, ...) I'm not so sure that this is a true statement. A more accurate statement might be "no single time frame's close (or range bar, or tick bar, etc) is more significant than any other time frame's close."
3. The close of a bar is a snapshot of price traded in the flow of market activity. So very true.
And at some point, since we are taking measurements of the flow of market activity, we are going to have to choose a price somewhere in the price bar to make our trading decision. If we are going to "measure" price action, we are going to have to pick some point and call it personally significant, or we'd never enter the market!
And if we are using price bars, what are we going to call "significant" if not the open, or the close, or the high, or the low, or all of the above? The only wrong answer is "none of the above."
So JD's title is relative. One man's meaningless is another man's bread and butter...
Luv,
Phantom
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These rules bode well for POSITION traders, but some are not necessary for day traders.
(Did you get this list from a book?)
Sometimes it is quite alright to put the entire position on at once because we are trading from consolidation zone to consolidation zone and one may not get a second shot at entry as a market starts to move.
Furthermore, I don't look at ANY fundamentals to day trade, I look at price levels, S/R and volatility, as well as breakout zones and test areas.
I also don't know, or care for that matter what the "crowd" outlook is. In my mind, "its all in the charts."
My trading is directly linked to my desire for profits; this is why I am patient and disciplined.
I trade every day pretty much, no trading breaks to speak of...
etc...
In other words, the title of your article is a bit misleading. Sorry for being so frank, but very little in trading is absolute.
Luv,
Phantom
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Not really. Divergence must always be between two things, ie one is 'diverging' from the other. If you were just looking at price but no metric, then what could the price be divergin from. The prices of two seperate markets can, of course, diverge from each other, although 'divergence' probably isn't the term that would be used in that instance.Having said that, it may be possible to estimate what the reading of an indicator would be, and to identify where divergence is most likely occuring that way. I can't see why you'd want to do this though - surely it would always be easier and more reliable just to use the indicator?
BTW, BlueHorseShoe loves Anacott Steel.
Week Two- Spookywill and the E-mini
in E-mini Futures
Posted
Totally out of context, as most of your comments are... As we speak, just a couple of hours after your chart posting, the market is breaching 1372 and still rising...there's 1373...
"My understanding is after all, very limited" -- You said it, not me!!!