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robertm

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Posts posted by robertm

  2. Posted

    Still sounds like a cart and horse issue.

    WHEN you have a system with a positive expectation and you can get it to make sufficient trades, use some of your profits to establish a safe back office and let it run there. Until you get to this plateau, spend all of your knowledge capital on getting your system to that state.

     

    Dude, have you tried living and trading in Florida? By the time you spend all that money on UPS's, Geni's, security, fireproofing your (what, basement?), hosting is by far the cheaper option. Especially since you'll be moving around a lot spending your hard earned money.

     

    It's just not required by most people, those who need it know the costs pay for themselves.

  5. Posted

    You can host your own server in a brokers back office as another solution (most of them support Strategy Runner or have a solution for you). Only for speed execution freaks usually. You'd have to check with them about server access etc. If you are technical enough you could monitor the logs yourself and put a remote management card in it (it'll even do hard reboots for you). Ask around with brokers that you are using and they should have more info, finding the right person to talk to is sometimes an issue (they put you to the tech team, then they put you to the sales team, who tell you the don't do it, then you eventually find the guy who works in a dark room without a nametag and only a stapler that can do it for you).

     

    Just have a robust well tested system first before you bother burning through hardware/hosting cash, they aren't going to make an unprofitable system profitable.

  7. Posted

    I know nothing about coding. So it will all have to be me if I am ever to make it...

    :)

     

    It's actually far simpler than I imagined when I finally went down this path. There are plenty of people here to help out, just make it a side project. It'll make you think about how you trade also which may lead you to some new interesting ideas based on old themes.

  8. Posted

    I have had people who, I assume, (because they told me), are profitable traders, show me what they are doing and I can always point out a place on the chart and say, "why didn't you do it there?" and the answer will be something like, "I don't know, it just didn't look right so I didn't take it". That sort of says to me that, without the years of screen time, the system is not really a system, but just some parameters that someone has put on his entries and exits, but the system itself, is in the head...

     

    You really notice this when you try to hard code a system. You are right, there is a lot of discretion in my system. I ignore a lot of stuff. I have forced myself to create rules as to why I do this. Coding a system up for automation or experts requires you to look at the screen and say "Ok, I wouldn't take this signal because of X,Y and Z, now how do I code that..." A few things require so many lines of code to filter right, or are so complex, that I've just shelved the idea of the "perfectly coded" system for now. I continue to think it over and make notes though. I think in time I will answer all those questions as well. Part of it is simply cutting a lot of "fat" out of the system that I think is important, but probably isn't over the longer term.

  9. Posted

    What if I shared a great chart setup and strategy that became so well known, and used, that the markets had to change because so many people where taking so much money out of the system, that the system would collapse?

     

    This is an interesting area, and one where trading rooms have some odd views. Some have the view of trying to get enough people doing the same thing to be able to collectively move a market (although collectively moving it towards their stops is the only result I've ever seen). Surely if you are selling your strategy and telling people when to hit the buy/sell button a pile of money will come along and crush it eventually you would think, but I haven't seen it happen yet.

     

    The big hedge funds sort of suffered this problem as more of their traders and researchers broke away to start up in competition with their own version of the same theme. In many ways they point to this being the reason for the massive leverage that was employed when the CDO markets started to implode, resulting in magnified losses. The leverage was used to try and squeeze more out of a declining revenue source. The strategies they were using tend to be more complex than that of the standard trader though, so how much does this really effect your ability to pick a good stock on a good trend?

     

    I've watched my mentors give the same basic construct to people for 7 years now. Not many of those who received that information understood how to use it properly and survived over the longer term. Others turned it into tidy profits. At times we do all trip over each other when piling into the same stock at the same time with the same broker without any collaboration other than having the same basic idea, but we work around these things, and others getting onboard are creating this issue as well who may have different trading ideas. In a bull market everybody wants in. At the end of the day it's not a game changer though.

     

    Given the decades it took for the returns to start to slim down in the massive world of hedge funds, you will be making a tidy sum as a private trader before you get anywhere near those sorts of trading volumes (and in reality you just never would, you'd stop growing to start spending/enjoying at some stage).

     

    I think it comes down to your other point more - we don't want to hand over our years of blood sweat and tears to some slob to exploit without paying their dues to the market. Typically they don't understand the message anyway. Interpretation is in our experience. "trade with the trend", "but I am, my one minute chart has been trending for nearly an hour now....." :crap:

  10. Posted

    Why do we have these discussion forums? What am I expecting to get from this? What have I ever got from a discussion forum? Is there some voice out there that I will stumble upon that will give me the ultimate secret to trading? Do I even know if there is anyone here who actually can trade successfully? Can trading even be done successfully?

     

    A while back there was a survey posted here. One of the questions, of course, was something Like, “what more would you like to see in this forum, (or website or whatever, I can't remember the wording)”. My answer was simple. I want someone to tell me how to trade successfully.

    That's not asking for too much is it?

     

    HA! ...so we have discussions on entry’s and exits and candlesticks and Wycoff, and trend lines and psychology and price action and blah blah blah.... on and on...

     

    A few thoughts:

     

    I'm pretty sure I could get my “traders IQ” level to 100 here without actually ever making a successful trade if that is something I wanted to do... if I wanted to sell myself as a coach or something. I know enough about trading, I have been looking at charts long enough, that I know exactly what to do and when... and yet I still am not a successful trader.

     

    Trader Vic said something like, he had taken over the years before his first book, at least 30 people into his office, showed them everything he does, let them in on all his secrets, worked with them independently and as attentively as possible and something like 6 of them went on to become anything near successful.

     

    The desire to teach is strong, but for a successful trader to hang out at a forum like this? Most of the folks that appear successful eventually fade away. They get tired of the same old questions and nobody really appearing to “get it”. They have better things to do, (I would sure hope so, if they were successful).

     

    I do believe trading can be done successfully, but I don't know for sure. I have NEVER actually sat next to someone and watched them make real trades successfully one after another over any length of time, so I DO NOT KNOW FOR SURE... but it seems plausible...

     

    I wonder if there is anybody at this forum that was here as an unsuccessful trader and progressed to the point of being a successful trader? It's just a thought... Seems like there are a lot of people that appear to be successful, (I say “appear' because one never can tell for sure), but they are always just there. Like they just know how to trade. I've never seen anyone actually going through the steps of becoming a successful trader from being an unsuccessful one....

     

    So, where do we go from here. I see the newbies come in and I say to myself, “I'm glad I'm way past that stage”, but what does that mean? I still am not successful, so how am I past that at all?

     

    In the end, you just keep your nose to the grindstone and plod along. Hoping for some sort of enlightenment. An “ah-ha” moment. Or maybe hoping that someone, if we ask the right questions, will feel sorry for us and take us under their wing and give us the true wisdom that they are withholding from everyone else... or... I don't know what we are hoping for.

     

    We read these posts, we sometimes say something that we think is important or ask an important question...but...Really?? WTF??

     

    ...so let's talk about that... yeah, all of it.... just for feces and giggles...

     

    I guess I'm sort of replying to all of that.

     

    I reached a point where I shut off all forums, seminars, expos etc a while back. I'm involved in some exclusive forums where ideas are discussed bluntly by experienced traders, and have access to pick some very experienced brains. Most participants I hang out with are successful in at least one market/instrument. Around the same time I was invited to participate in trading rooms etc, and again turned all that down to simply shut out new inputs and deal with the knowledge I had. I'd been to seminars all over the world by that stage. Upon pointing out how sad the state of an expo I'd just attended was, my Mentor suggested I probably didn't need to bother attending them anymore (which I take as his cryptic way of saying "you already know enough, just sort it all out").

     

    At that point I sat down and started collecting up and sorting through all the information I had on trading. If you don't already have it get a piece of software called Mindjet Mind Manager, it is a brilliant way to start sifting through all your knowledge and storing ideas - mindjet.com . I also asked myself some big questions that I thought had simple answers. Stuff like "What is Trend?". You'd be surprised how many red flags that thew up. Solving those questions was what nailed it all down for me (I was already making money in several markets for many years at this point, but a few had eluded my attempts to tame them).

     

    One of the big realizations was the below video at TED.com (do spend time on TED while waiting for trades to setup, it's brilliant, and it's free). Make of this what you will. For me it solved the riddle. I had all the information I needed. I just had to sort out the answers.

     

    Steven Johnson: Where good ideas come from | Video on TED.com

     

    FYI forums are great for finding things or prompting you to think about something in more detail. In writing down a question to expose to the world, you will find it may lead you to the answers even if nobody replies to it (and ignore any replies from sub 5yr experience traders anyway, it's not long enough to experience enough market conditions). Trading is also very boring so forums are good entertainment. A theme that goes well beyond trading is "teach others in order to master your skill" or some such thing. Open powerpoint and start laying out a slide show on how you would teach yourself how to trade. Maybe try it out on somebody you know who wants to learn. See how far you get before you start making a list of holes you need to fill. Finding answers to your own problems by doing this will earn you far more than becoming the next internet trading guru selling your ebook for $195 with a free set of steak knives.

     

    Trader Vic was right, the failure rate is high. Didn't he blow up his own account at some point? Then again so did Livermore on three occasions.

  11. Posted

    If you are trading YM, ES, or NQ - you may consider another market that isn't already flooded. You may have better luck finding an edge.

     

    Good luck.

     

     

    Seems like you need time off and some fresh perspective.:)

     

    Two great points. I gave the Emini's a good crack a few times, it just wasn't the market for how I like to trade. I took that experience and applied it to something else, and found it worked very well with a few minor adjustments for the different market. If nothing else short term trading will give you a massive pile of data to sift through to look for answers, rather than waiting for events to occur one day at a time.

     

    If you aren't getting anywhere, just sit back and watch the market for a while. Strip all the indicators off your charts and watch price. If you have a favorite indicator just observe how that interacts with price on several markets/time frames. Maybe there is a sweet spot out there waiting just for your trading style.

  13. Posted

    so trading is analogous to rocket science? and "mentors" are relatively simple to access? I think you've inverted things. are you a mentor?

     

    There are plenty of good accessible mentors that don't overcharge. Finding them is the hard part. Finding one that suits you is harder again (one persons mentor is another persons waste of money).

     

    Rocket science is actually pretty straight forward also ironically. Anybody can build a backyard rocket, many people try, but how many people really master it?

     

    If you persist long enough eventually you overcome all obstacles no matter what you do.

  14. Posted

    free to 12K...that's a slippery slope.

     

    kiyosaki pushed r/e courses, books, a boardgame, in the 90's & 00's. that game has imploded & he has apparently moved into trading 'education materials'.

     

    best advice: avoid all "pay me to learn to trade" types. all of them.

     

    read, blog, and watch live charts. besides the interesting approaches that come up in your studies & that you'll want to fool around with, think about what you want, particularly what you want the process/results to look like - because the markets accommodate all of them & it is important that you own yours. don't be afraid of using metaphors, either, to describe "what it looks like" (except I think it wise to not use metaphors having to do with war, violence, etc..."surfing", or "I'm taking my little bucket down to the big river", etc.....

     

    lots of screen time, lots of thinking about it, synthesizing........

     

    Sure. How about we both build a rocket tomorrow. I'll hire a rocket scientist to pick his brain on how to do it. You can go start working on the discovery of the atom.

     

    What we need is a set of rules and framework to work within. From this framework we can build our system, like using lego, rather than inventing the chemical compound for plastics. (that's two metaphors now).

     

    Avoid - somebody teaching you "their system" as you won't have ownership and belief in it.

     

    Do - seek out the building blocks you need to build a system. If somebody can give you those, all the better, why reinvent the wheel when you know working wheels exist (the issue is knowing if the wheel you buy works, or is just a replica of one that worked for somebody else).

     

    I'll steal a quote to finish from John Carlton's blog :

     

    "And a little mentoring can trigger massive leaps in figuring sh*t out."

     

    Having somebody to ask when you hit the wall is all it takes. At times the process of writing the question alone, and not sending it, provides the answer. Accountability is key.

  15. Posted

    It depends how you view the world. If I put up daily and weekly equities charts, and FX charts of any liquid timeframe, only the gaps between the week/day would give you any idea which was which.

     

    Same patterns, same price moves, but each has it's own approach to how we manage the trade.

     

    If I tried to compare intraday equities to FX, then no, the considerations of where the "real" market open is (where we as traders can engage it) on any given session means the range of the day probably isn't fully tradable.

     

    The fact people would pay more for an equity if they have a certain view of that company is a good thing. Currencies range, Equities can head for the moon (and sometimes back :rofl:)

  16. Posted

    Hello,

     

    I want to learn about trading and went to Rich Dad's free seminar. I ended up paying $12k to view their online courses. They are calling me now to offer the coaching and trading lab for another $7k. I start to feel more and more uneasy when they try to push and sell me more of their services.

     

    Has anyone taken courses before from Rich Dad or if you know other better resources to take such classes and coaching? Is coaching an important step? Can anyone share what classes you take to learning trading?

     

    I really appreciate your feedback and advice.

     

    They are big on pushing this course in Asia & Aus as well as his name carries well everywhere. But when I guy puts in print "If I need a little extra cash I just go into the market and take it out when I want to", then I'd say they are full of sh*t. He makes some goods points, but I don't see trading the markets being a "specialty" area for them.

     

    There are far better mentors for less money who are true professionals with real track records. Beware of those who "specialize" - Options, FX, Futures, daytrading etc. While there are differences between markets and instruments, these are addressed AFTER you understand how to trade. Price first, instruments and markets later.

  17. Posted

    ISE (being an exchange) seems to be providing this service to a range of brokers, thus giving accurate info would be important to them (or they would have no clients). I'm doing some comparisons to other sources of FX options and so far they are in the ball park.

  18. Posted

    It depends on what your interpretation of "day trading" is. This is different for everybody.

     

    I think you'd be nutz to ignore something like AUD/USD when it's in the mother of all trends and at all time highs, just because of a pip or two (well, unless you are trying to pick tops & failures in trends, good luck with that).

     

    Some brokers are worse than others though. I accidentally clicked on the wrong area of my Forex Factory calendar today and they have some "Market" tab that lets you pull up the spreads from various brokers to compare them (see lower RHS table). The ones with the WORST spreads on a given pair seem to have N/A next to them. Some brokers play you low on the majors, then hit you on the crosses. My broker gives me a great all around balance. Thanks to competition most of the ones worth using are pretty tight now.

     

    More than one good FX educator has stated that if your spreads are what you are worried about, then your system probably isn't all that good. At one point I was so close to price with an arb scalp system (long since abandoned) that getting an extra half pip was going to be a big deal. Then I grew up :rofl:

  20. Posted

    Hi Guys,

     

    I'm testing options as a strategy solution for certain FX trades. Can anybody suggest platforms they are trading these on or Options solutoins for FX in general??

     

    More importantly where can I find the greeks listed?

     

    IG have FX options (of sorts) ranging from daily to 2 weeks, but they are pretty raw (no greeks, basic order types). My time horizon is short, probably 48hrs max hold, so how big an influence are they going to be anyway?

     

    I guess options on futures is one solution, I'm not sure how the spot options compare??

  21. Posted

    Having said that those gems are there and an astute reader would learn who to pay attention to quite quickly.

     

    I have observed from my own journey that our astuteness at decoding trader talk increases exponentially according to our experience over time though :)

  22. Posted

    No need to go that far. There are three VSA threads here running into many thousand posts on the topic. The threads are dormant now but amongst the mire there are some pearls.

     

    Stear clear of tradeguider and all there over priced product and it costs nothing though investing the $50 odd bucks in the original book won't break the bank.

     

    I've often wondered if some of those massively long threads on certain topics mean that whatever they are trying to do is far too complex, and so "open for interpretation", that by the time it works for them, they are actually doing something else anyway which is the real reason they are making money. "You know that indicator only ever works if you do X & Y first, then it's brilliant" :rofl:

  25. Posted

    Couldn't disagree with you more strongly. I'm not suggesting pay for a thing.

     

    Go and search Malcolmb (unfortunately at another website) to see how you can get great vsa info for free. Go argue with him whether VSA is any good or not I won't waste my time.

     

    In stocks as the markets are centralised vsa gives great info and will help you analyse candles much better.

     

    Bottom line to the person asking the original question, volume gives you hints to what the pros are doing and theres loads of info for free.

     

    Nice try ??????????? Not trying a thing.

     

    Volume has it's place, and I agree it is probably most useful in Equities trading, but it's well down the check list of what makes a system a winner.

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