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bigbird
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bigbird started following Trading with Market Statistics. IV Standard Deviation, Ray Barros Method Introduction, Statistics and and 7 others

Hi Rob, Do you have a link to his webinar? Do you need to pay for it? Thanks.

Dear Rob, Thanks. Actually, I did not mention clearly enough that my question is really about how to label X, A, B to determine a "continuationspring". Okay, referring back to the post here, for 1.jpg, I would label 456 as XAB to determine whether a continuationspring has happened, rather than labeling 345 as XAB. Similarly, for 2.jpg, 456 as XAB would be used for continuationspring determination. On the other hand, for upthrust determination, we should label 345 in 1.jpg and 2.jpg as XAB. Is that correct:question: Thanks.

Dear Rob, Do you mean 10% of 34 and not 20%:question: Anyway, this is something new to me. I thought we should apply 10% 34 on the bottom boundary as well. In what situations would you label 456 as XAB:question: I attached one of Ray's charts. The blue line is the 5D while the red 18D. He labeled 456 as XAB in this situation, but I'm unable to figure out why this is so. Thanks!

Dear Rob, As you know, one of the uses of X, AB labeling that Ray taught is to allow us to compute the Maximum Extension (ME), which in turn allows us to decide whether a spring pattern has formed. Unfortunately, I met some problems labeling, I will use the figures attached to describe the problem. Though I have gone back to revise the X, AB labeling, I'm not able to ascertain the answer to my question. Referring to figure 1.jpg, I would have labeled X, A, B at 3, 4, 5. But Ray would sometimes label X, A, B at 4, 5, 6. This would give a different ME, which may give a different conclusion related to whether a continuation spring formed at 7. I'm not sure which one to use, 345, or 456:question: For 2.jpg and 3.jpg, how would you have labeled X, A, B:question:

Dear Rob, I'm referring to the chart attached in this post. Is BC a corrective? Thanks!

Dear Rob, Is there any reason why the type of BC in the second chart is not mentioned:question: I have edited the 3rd attachment to include more labels. Are BBC, CD and DE corrective:question: This question is related to Ray's description about R0 subnormal on page 19 of the NOT book. Ray said: For example, in a 5day upmove, the 18day impulse move will be below mean and the 5day impulse move will be less than average. (A 5day impulse move usually comprises more than one 5day impulse move.) In Figure 1.17, we have a 5day impulse move commencing October 10,2002 and ending on December 2,2002. After the 5day line turned down, we find that the impulse move is below average. Were there any moves that indicated this may be so before the 5day turned down? The first 5day move  from October 10, 2002 to October 28, 2002  is mean. However, the two succeeding 5day moves are below average, giving us a clue that the 5day impulse move will also be below average. There is repeated mentions of 5day which confuses me. Are the underlined words meant to be 18day instead:question: Thanks for your time.

Hi Rob, While I was reading Ray's blog @ What is a RePo and 313Outside? Blog for Trading Success: Ray Barros, I got confused over the reply Ray gave to Wee Meng. Wee Meng asked the question: "What context is used to view a congestion pattern at C, rather than an “active” upthrust pattern?" Ray replied: "So in an uptrend, the continuation patterns occur at the bottom and the CIT pattern occurs at the top." Do you have any insight? Thanks.

Dear Rob, Regarding the minidow (or similarly the miniS&P 500) being not so liquid outside of US trading hours, that's true. A quick confirmation, from your reply, for minidow, so I should configure my charting software to filter away data outside of regular trading hours since the 80m, 15m, etc, tf is derived from the regular trading hours:question: Currently, my daily chart is showing daily bars which are formed using the O, H, L, C of the entire 24 hours period (instead of the O, H, L, C of just the regular trading period). And currently, my 80min chart also displays bars throughout the 24 hours. If I just display bars only for the regular trading hours, the swings will look obviously different. Thanks! As you can see, I'm still at the setting up phase and have not come to the interesting stuff yet!

Hi Rob, If I use the following sequence of tf for minidow, SHTF: daily with 5p FHTF: 80m: 5p TTF: 15m: 5p for lagging patterns FLTF: 3m: 5p for forecasting patterns SLTF: 3m bars (or we can use 5p of 30s, but not necessary) Is it alright to use charts based on 24 hour data? Or I should restrict just to the data in regular US trading hours:question: I'm also trying to trade the EURUSD futures (6E), I suppose I can use the same tf as above, since the pitsession is also similar to minidow:question: Thanks!

Hi Rob, Based on what you said above, therefore, for my example, SHTF: daily with 5p FHTF: 80m: 5p TTF: 15m: 5p for lagging patterns FLTF: 3m: 5p for forecasting patterns SLTF: 3m bars (or we can use 5p of 30s, but not necessary) Right? Thanks.

Hi Rob, Thanks for relaying! For 5p swings, I would use WPC = 3 like what you have advised, what about LCC, do we stick to LCC = 3:question: In your experience with Barros Swings, is it true that most of the time, when there is acceptance beyond the ME, a WPC or a LCC would have happened:question: Thanks.

Hi Rob, I think I'm getting it, I hope. We use only the 5p or 18p, and a 5p on a TF chart is equivalent to a 1p on the next higher TF chart, a 18p on a TF chart is equivalent to a 5p on the next higher TF chart. The 18p swings should be used as the trading time frame (since it will then be possible to determine WPC, LCC). To really confirm whether I have understood, suppose my trading TF is the 18p on the 15min, and following Ray's convention on page 60: 2nd higher TF: 18p on Daily 1st higher TF: 18p on 80min Trading TF : 18p on 15min (lagging change in trend patterns) 1st lower TF: 5p on 15min (forecasting patterns) 2nd lower TF: It is not necessary to draw this swing, but for completion sake, the swing would be 18p on 30s or 5p on 3min. It looks like using 18p on 30s is a better option, but I do not know why:question: Are the above okay:question: Rob, I hope I'm not too much of a trouble to you.

Hi Rob, I'm sorry, but I do not understand still. According to page 60 of the Nature of Trends book: 2nd higher TF = 12month swing (which I assume to be a 12period Barros swing on monthly chart) 1st higher TF = 13week swing (13period Barros swing on weekly chart) trader's TF = 18day swing (18period Barros swing on daily chart) 1st lower TF = 5day swing (5period Barros swing on daily chart) 2nd lower TF = 1day swing (1period Barros swing on daily chart) Therefore, I have thought that a TF is uniquely defined by a nperiod Barros swing on a mperiod chart, and each TF must be in a somewhat logical relationship from one another. 1st lower TF is 5 times of 2nd lower TF (as there are 5 days in a week) traders TF is 4 times of 1st lower TF (4 weeks in a month, about 18days) 1st higher TF is 3 times traders TF (as there are 3 weeks in a quarter) 2nd higher TF is 4 times end TF (as there are 4 quarters in 1 year) :question:Therefore, given the 80min, 15min, 3min and 30seconds charts, what period Barros Swings should be plotted on them so that the whole series from 2nd higher TF to 2nd lower TF can be seen:question: Thanks!

Hi Rob, Thanks. Based on your reply, is the below setup correct? 18D on Daily === 2nd higher 5D on Daily === 1st higher 18D on 15 min === trader's time frame 5D on 15 min === 1st lower 5D on 3 min === 2nd lower Thanks.

Hi Rob, Thanks for clarifying, and also relaying some of these questions to Ray! :hmmmm: Should the charts be in geometric relationships, i.e., 80min chart, 80/5=15min, 15/5=3min chart (instead of 5 or 1 min)? I thought also that the Barros Swings should be in a constant geometric relationship to one another. In other words, if we use 5 as the "geometric constant", the Barros Swings I should be using would be: 1st higher tf: 5P on 80 min (equivalent to 25P on 15min). Trading timeframe: 5P on 15min. This is equivalent to 1P on 80min,and 25P on 3min, which means that I can choose to use, besides 5P on 15min, the 1P on 80min and 25p on 3min. Using 1P on 80min is not recommended, however, as some swings will be missing. 1st lower tf: 5P on 3min (equivalent to 1P on 15min). Is this reasonable (i hope my description is not too messy to understand)? I'm not too sure how to apply the 5p, 18p swings on the 3 timeframes (80, 15, 3min) so that all 5 time frames from 2nd higher to 2nd lower are in a good geometric relations. Any suggestions?