Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
become
-
Content Count
38 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by become
-
-
Actually #1 is the logical consequence. Remember you do not trade in hindsight. So the placement of the medium B2B troughs at 10:25 in realtime is the right thing to do. But you move it after additional data arrives. Now you do not reverse at points 2 of the faster fractal traverses, do you? :)So you just hold..
That's the approach I use, but it means you are dealing with probability (of a B2B in this case) until later confirmation or disconfirmation.
Also, in this specific case it wouldn't cause a trading error if you are trading on a slower fractal. But since the same situation can occur on your trading fractal (fractals being identical), it can result in a error if/when it develops on the slower fractal.
-
cunparis,
I developed some things with the Zenfire API for a while when I was especially interested in the trade intensity stuff. In the end I decided it wasn't worth all the extra work (and I didn't get into charting etc). I found I could do everything needed via NT (gomi's work helped too).
(fwiw)
-
"... The volume reaches a trough at 2, the BO of the RTL. . The trough of volume coincides with the BO of the RTL."I assume that's Jack... Is this an indirect way of saying you disagree with Sypdertrader's comments above?
-
you are saying a lot of nothing.oops... more of nothing again.
- which makes your posts nothing to the power of two.
Really, all you're doing is stifling discussion. Right or wrong, davewolfs was making a contribution. Your metacomments aren't.
-
So far my observation is that the turning point is due more to exhaustion than it is traders fading the move. For a short, I see exhaustion by sellers and then price reverses. This seems to be more reliable than looking for an increase in intensity by longs. But I'm still investigating this.The bid is refreshed, absorbing the sellers without allowing price to move significantly lower.
Surges in buying intensity at the bottom of a move do occur, but are much rarer. They probably represent increased urgency, rather than just taking advantage of a 'normal' imbalance.
The indicator is more precise, but if you're looking for it you can basically read the same information from standard price-volume-velocity studies.
-
Just getting started here but wanted to say one thing - the volume bars are such a logical chart type. I'm working on cobbling out a Tradestation oscillator.The tradestation code already exists. You might try sending proflogic a pm.
-
One of the more interesting visulisations that I played with was using a time histogram under a constant volume chart. Similar to trade intensity except sampling the time with respect to a certain volume. I posted a couple of charts showing extremes being picked off in the trade intensity thread.The time histogram can be quite close, and certainly a good trader / reader of charts can use it to 'see' pretty much the same activity. The 'trade intensity' indicator is obviously more precise at identifying the activity AgeKay speaks of, though it certainly isn't the 'grail' - what that activity means for future direction still has to be interpreted in context. Perhaps this is different on other instruments; I mostly trade the ES.
I've been using the intensity indicator since last Fall, but only on a faster chart - on my slower volume bar charts I use a time histogram. I also use 2 different instances of the indicator, set at different 'speeds'.
HTH
-
Info I found out for you - TradeVec is Dot Net based and they will release the beta API this week. Also, their VWAP with deviation bands is already built for release in their next minor update.Seems a very interesting project, if we'll be able to code in .Net. Will they also have millisecond timestamps for those UrmaBlumish calculations? Better yet, could you provide contact information for someone who could answer questions directly?
-
Be careful what you infer, even with risk arbitrage (as opposed to mean reverting arbitrage). Ask yourself what is the fundamental characteristic of all arbitrage trades be they mean reverting or non stationary?The program that ran at that point may well have determined those instruments where undervalued in comparison to other correlated instruments but unless you can show similar opposite direction trade triggering at the same time in those other (relatively) overvalued instruments there is absolutely no reason to infer that the trade is not directional.
Good point. From the standpoint of a short-term trader making directional bets, does it actually make any difference whether the observed spikes are directional or arbitrage?
It seems to me what matters most is whether the spike represents resistance being taken out in a strong trend, or resistance stopping a trend.
-
The thick purple channel is most likely a traverse. Got tired of working with skinny line weights so bumped it all up a level. Re-worked this several times, it may still be wrong so buyer beware.fwiw, that's identical to my chart - we can't both be wrong, can we?
-
In my opinion the sequences weren't complete at that point in time. We still needed 2r2b on the tape fractal. See chart:Thanks for the response. I should have phrased the question more precisely.
How do we know, in real time, that the b2b2r2b sequence from 12:40 to 13:50 occurs on a faster fractal?
- become
-
I have a question regarding Thursday's ES chart, for anyone.
How could we know that 13:50 wasn't the FTT ending the up channel?
- become
-
Friday, Feb 26, 2010Thanks for any feedback!
You are right about the r2r being a problem, but you don't see that you have a more consistent problem in the rest of the chart.
As you know, the sequences are:
r2r2b2r, and
b2b2r2b.
On the same fractal, they alternate. You have annotated an entire ES day with only one such correct sequence, and a partial sequence to end the day. What's going on in between?
ehorn's chart of the same day contains nothing but those sequences, on 3-4 levels.
I suggest you study his chart closely to see what he is seeing that you are not.
What are the orange and blue dots in the volume pane? They seem to obscure the actual levels....
- become
-
Romanus, I sympathize with your frustration (though I worry less about binary logic).
As it happens, I went long on bar 2. If it will help, here's why.
Bar 1 isn't peak volume, since the first bar of the day always has far more volume than the last 2 bars of the preceding day. (Your "P" is just marked by an algorithm, and I would drop it altogether, as it registers too many false positives, and misses some real Peaks.)
The ibgs is a subfractal retrace that fails: increasing volume that fails to break the prior bar's low, and retreats substantially from its low. As far as sequences go, I expected to see increasing black to complete the sequence begun the day before, and we hadn't got it yet. So my analysis confirmed my expectations.
I exited on the VE 2 bars later. I remain unconvinced about entering short because of a lower volume VE, just before an important news item - context tells us to expect a reduction in volume. If the news had been a substantial positive surprise, we would have had a big black bar, and would be seeing the preceding 2 bars as a lateral retrace.
HTH
- become
-
Thank-you for providing a perfect example.The following answer assumes Action only at Bar close. As such, one has no need to check the YM, STR-SQU, DOm or Tic Charts. However, at minimum one should see a warning flag on the STR-SQU (if not a completed cycle down on the YM). Since we don't have those tools at our disposal, we will simply look at the ES chart (Coarse Level Tool only) to locate our answer.
If one has determined the OB represented a signal for change, then one knows what must come next with respect to the order of events. On the very next bar, the market provided that which you did not anticipate (a pennant? WTF is this?).
Whoops! The annotations must contain a signifciant error. Once located, the answers is easy, the second 'A' (of M-A-D-A) indicated hold , but instead, the trader reversed.
Corrective action One (if unable to locate the source of the annotation error [why M-A-D-A resulted in a hold) - sideline.
Corrective Action Two (if by locating the annotation error the trader fully understands why M-A-D-A indicated hold - reverse back to the right side of the market (for your trading fractal).
As one gains additional experience, one will develop the confidence to reverse back to the right side, simply because "what must come next" - didn't, while still searching for the erroneous annotation.
Keep in mind (as the FBP continues to form) - and you have a full five minutes here - your brain is going to say, 'Wait a minute. If this bar finishes as a FBP on decreasing B, where the hell is my increasing R?" By then, you'll already be looking for that errant annotation.
HTH.
- Spydertrader
Spydertrader,
First, thanks for your renewed involvement in the thread.
In that particular case I wouldn't have reversed short, but in others I would, and have. Are you saying that WMCN, MCN on the very next bar? Isn't it possible that the next bar is subfractal, and therefore holding short is appropriate?
- become
-
But, what is even more important, it's quite possible that the picture you're looking at is different from mine due to some differences in data providers. Would you be so kind to post the blank, not-annotated charts containing the laterals you referred to in the Follow-up.
Thank you very much for taking the time to reply.
Good, I thought they were charts of the same day and the same lateral...
I believe the data differences are caused by your bars being formed on the local computer in real time, rather than being preprocessed on a server. If you occasionally "Reload All Historical Data" during the day the bars will be recreated according to the ticks' timestamps.
- become
-
As a follow up to our Las Vegas Meeting, I will (from time to time) post a drill (or a chart section) chosen specificaly for its ability to illuminate the current environment....
The above drill focuses only those Lateral Formations Highlighted in Blue. Done properly, this drill will point out a few items many have overlooked.
Good Trading to you all.
:D - Spydertrader
They don't look at all 'the same' to me. But to clarify, do you mean only the differences visible in this snippet as posted (that is, differentiation based only on price action, without reference to either volume or time of day)?
- become
-
Jack has addressed this here:....
I must admit that it makes no sense to me to ignore the price volume sequences outside rth that go into forming a gap. The whole world doesn't care if the Hamptons and Greenwich smart money isn't up yet. Stuff happens outside rth.
Hit me!
Finally back from the Vegas trip and catching up on this thread.
| also think that just pretending the trading outside RTH doesn't exist makes little sense, given that the purpose of the MA part of MADA is to gather and organize market information. Why toss so much out? The market also shows different dynamics due to volume levels after FOMC announcements and during periods of extreme dry-up.
The only theoretical justification for gap removal I can see would be thinking of the after-hours trading as involving subfractal sequences, however much price may move. Pragmatically, gap removal often 'obviously' works (Friday would be a good example), and I remove it when that's the case.
On the other hand, after hours trading displays the same sequences,sometimes with significant volume, and those sequences, plus the highs and lows created, can also provide obvious indications of what's to come. Thursday provided an example of that - the premarket not only made it clear that price needed to continue up to complete a sequence, but also about how far it would continue. ( CV charts have obvious advantages over time charts for 24 hour monitoring.)
In sum, I don't see why one needs to make an absolute choice. A trader can track all the available information and use what's appropriate to inform decisions.
- become
-
Hi folks,Jack Hershey is teaching how to differentiate Retrace from Reversal.
Good trading to everyone!
Where is he doing this?
-
An R2R cannot immediately follow a B2B on the same fractal. Likewise, a B2B cannot immediately follow an R2R on the same fractal. The mandatory sequence is B2B2R2B or R2R2B2R on every fractal - no shortcuts, no incomplete sequences, on any fractal.Is a fractal allowed to VE into a 'higher' fractal? i.e., a tape becoming a traverse, a traverse becoming a channel (on p2- p3 move)
-
Of course, just about everything ive added to atrader has been at the request of a user. Thats how a hobby becomes a business.As regards, the other stuff. But the backfill is not part of the open api.
The open API is what developers can use. That gives real time data only. What ninja do with their datawarehouse is another part of the system and not part of zenfire.
Maybe im wrong but when i added the zen api there was no historical api. Maybe someone knows where the access to the historical api is?
Anyway, Zen is not a primary API for me. Its a simplistic API and was something i could add quickly.
Most users Zen users use NT and dont need anything else and the cost of zero helps...
Thanks again.
I believe NT actually uses the Rithmic API, which offers more features including historical backfill. The Zenfire API is a wrapper of the Rithmic. You can get the Rithmic one for the asking as well, afik. And on another thread there was a post about ZenFire adding historical backfill soon.
-
Okay here it is... in a standard indicator in the Market Delta Software. Results directly mimic those of the one I was duplicating, with less noise. Although I have a feeling it will be attacked by the original creator (Which I can understand, after having attracted so much forum attention with it)
I'm not familiar with Market Delta, but isn't that just Total transactions / time elapsed on a per-bar basis?
-
That's pretty much what I'm working on - wish I'd started maintaining my own database ages ago.
I am wondering about the utility of feeding it back into NT, though, as opposed to just using NT for time charts, and hard-coding the volume charts I'd want from the API data.
-
A side note for prospective users, my observations find that this indicator works best if you simply use it as a guide to determine possible changes in market direction. I do not enter based on this indicator, but I do trade using price action so once my existing strategies indicate that an opportunity exists I will go with the trade.
I've found this too, and use it similarly, but I think that's also because my version isn't there yet - still working on scaling and noise.
I wanted to thank you for your insistence on the ZenFire API being readily available - the response I got from them was very different from what Mirus had told me, so I'm setting myself up with 'correct' data now - which should make further development easier.
And congrats on your work!
The Price / Volume Relationship
in Technical Analysis
Posted
1. I wasn't talking about prediction. If you annotate a B2B but then discover it wasn't, then your annotation was either of a probability, or a mistake.
2. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough. I wasn't talking about trading on a faster fractal. Since fractals are identical, the same situation can occur on the slower trading fractal.