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davewolfs

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Everything posted by davewolfs

  1. One thing that I have noticed in my own analysis is that much of the trade on a swing low will be responsive and will therefore occur at the bid while swing highs will also be responsive and therefore occur at the ask. In both cases this institutional buying/selling is acting as a built in break to stop the market in it's tracks and reverse its direction. Regardless of the spike - how does this explain what constitutes as commercial vs non commercial trade? Based on your definitions would trade ever be considered commercial that happens outside of a spike?
  2. So based on this post, the method of tracking commercial trade is by viewing the volume that takes place during an intensity spike? The direction of price movement that follows will give you an indication if the trades are buys or sells regardless if the trades are happening at the bid or offer. Is this along the longs of detecting this commercial trade?
  3. How are you determining what net new trade is commercial or not when you no longer have access to as many large blocks of trade given the new changes brought forth by the CME?
  4. Funny how the market always gives us surprises.
  5. Another data feed? I don't believe anyone other then you has mentioned the use of multiple feeds to do this.
  6. Good question - I was wondering the same thing now since ticks show less volume how is the trade intensity indicator standing up.
  7. Thank you for the response UrmaBlume. Just to touch on the point that no time or no tick bars are used. May I ask why Time is displayed in the HUD you have developed. Is the purpose of this simply to gauge the markets in direction in terms of how well trade is being facilitated? Regardless, wouldn't all of this information be detectable through the use of the other methods we have discussed i.e. price volume time continuum and if so, then why not just use that?
  8. UrmaBlume, I understand that you look at balance on multiple time frames, i.e. 2,4,8 minutes etc... May I ask if you ever look at balance of trade on volume bars, for example I have seen that you have posted charts using 8000 bars, but have you ever used say 16000, or 32000 bars? I'm finding that the results here can be equally useful unless my calculations are wrong. The idea for looking at balance on these larger volumes frames is based on the same principals of MP and balance areas. When the market comes into Balance on these large volume levels the same idea holds where price is easier to be moved out of balance. As Dalton puts it "Imagine a large stone balanced on a mountain peak...the stone might come loose and tumble down the mountainside". The key is understanding where that mountain peak exists and looking for clues on smaller levels to determine how hard other time frames are attempting to move that stone or what is the path of least resistance to move that stone. I would assume that your preference is time since this is probably what most of the world looks at before placing a trade but I am curious to know if the same principals can also be applied using another unit of measurement. I appreciate any input and thank you again.
  9. You've been sharing quite the hints lately UrmaBlume.
  10. I wouldn't knock Market Delta yet, there are a lot of things that can be rapidly prototyped within it. I will agree with you that you cannot properly calculate trade intensity, but that might all change in a future release
  11. Last night I got the smoothing worked out. I'd be curious to know what type of smoothing you are using UrmaBlume. As you said, this does lead price.
  12. Thank you for the clue. I just need to work on the subtleties now.
  13. Named Pipes and WCF NT 7 will support .NET 3.5.
  14. My plan is as follow in the coming weeks. I want to create an application that will connect to the Zen-Fire API and record the data to a database, allowing for precise millisecond precision. I already have the client connecting, I just need to record the data and patch it through to NT. Version 7 might make this vision easier. Also, Zen-Fire is in the works of updating their API to support historical intraday replay for every tick, so the plan is that as long as the app is connected by EOD, you can capture all tick data for the session. I'm hoping that I can then patch the data through to NT, similar to what gom from paris has done. The advantages of having this in a DB will be the ability to perform other statistical analysis so we can all have our own custom dashboard with relative ease I'm hoping to have some free time in the coming weeks, so hopefully I can crank this out over a few brews.
  15. There was definitely blood in the streets today For those who follow PA (see the Brooks thread), UrmaBlume's chart was confirmed by a perfect final flag on the 5 minute bar chart. The pulses that occurred at 14:50 - 14:55 were small but sells and there were significant spikes as the market dropped to the 20 bar EMA. My personal favorite occurred when pulses start firing again between 14:56 and 14:58 causing a pullback. The 15:08 pulse was the final nail in the coffin and confirmed the L1 entry where the market tumbled there after.
  16. UrmaBlume, I have your indicator working now. The way you plot your line is interesting, from what I can see the line you draw on your intensity has a min value of the total intensity and then is scaled upwards from that based on the rate of change between each blue bar - which based on my observations are trades that are happening at the ask. One question for you. Is there a way to determine an ideal periodicity to use for a market. I've also noticed that this works much better in the ES then in other markets. A side note for prospective users, my observations find that this indicator works best if you simply use it as a guide to determine possible changes in market direction. I do not enter based on this indicator, but I do trade using price action so once my existing strategies indicate that an opportunity exists I will go with the trade. Today there were buy spikes at: 9:59, 10:38-10:42, 12:00, 12:21 Sell at: 10:17, 12:00 Of these spikes, 3 were followed by decent entries and those entries occurred on the biggest of the spikes.. Thank you UrmaBlume.
  17. The Force is what gives a Trader his power. It's an energy field created by all living things. It surrounds us and penetrates us. It binds the Markets together...
  18. UrmaBlume, could you please describe how long term trader commitment is computed to some degree. I unfortunately am still confused by this.
  19. What does the average time of day volume represent?
  20. Just some other thoughts, you have mentioned that volume and size don't help in classifying the type of trader - how do you determine if a trader is long term or not? Are LDB reports part of the decision process?
  21. Although subtle, your last point explains a lot and I appreciate your "commitment"
  22. Perhaps I might have misread some of your previous posts then. So is trader commitment usually discovered during these intensity spikes and if it is, are you looking for orders or groups of orders that appear to be of a large size? What would help constitute that a trade is considered long term vs non long term? Based on what you have said your roots started with MP, so does some of this tie into initiative and responsive traders who are making their movies inside our outside specific value areas? I would have to assume, that the portion of the right of the HUD would represent some sort of buying/selling pressure for a given time period (i.e. overnight) based on the cumulative pressure that occurred during these different time frames.
  23. I've read in your previous posts that you commitment can sometimes can be defined as ticks that happen on the upside vs ticks that happen on the downside. How are you defining whether or not a trader is considered long term? Are these traders who are involved in the initial movement that occurs around an intensity spike?
  24. Table of Content Zen-Fire: Zen-Fire API
  25. I hear yah, I've started working on it. No ETA on delivery though.
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