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Everything posted by jfw215

  1. J' Trade Log

    While at the gym today, I remembered that I passed on 2 trades this morning that both turned out to be high runners. I literally had the thought "this one is no good" as if I would know the future. It's easy to overlook it but this is where the awareness and probabilistic mindset comes into play. I realize I have been trying to filter out losers instead of taking the setups. Next week, I will focus on taking all trades instead of filtering.
  2. J' Trade Log

    Hi folks, I will be posting my stock setups that I will be taking from 1:30p to 4p EST M-F. My trading is heavily influenced by Thalestrader, who has left a treasure trove of knowledge here at TL. My stock setups will target gapped stocks (S&P 500 constituents priced over $20) that consolidate and continue in the direction of the gap in the afternoon. Entries will include 123s and pullbacks to the 5 min 21 EMA. Please note I am currently on demo mode. I believe the keys to success in trading are really just a few simple things: Embracing the probabilistic mindset, which includes taking every valid setup regardless of how I feel about the outcome and not changing strategy based on recent results. Cutting losers quick and letting winners run. Unconditional self love and acceptance. This is probably the most important thing and the ONLY secret there is. By being ok with making mistakes, being wrong, taking losers, giving self money, one can finally learn to trade without fear. This is probably where most people take the most time to learn (10 years for me). Here we go. Blue line denotes entry, red line are my stops adjusted to as close to real time as possible. Today: -41c, +13c, +0 Best, J
  3. J' Trade Log

    I traded alot today. 9 trades, 8 losers and BEs, 1 runner that paid for them all. Gotta keep swinging! totaled 240 bps before commission. The first winner on W, I did not count - it was a mistake that led to profit. I felt like a machine, kept pulling the trigger, watch the 1min chart, see it doesn't go anywhere, take my small loss... over and over... then one takes off... Let it run... the whole time I was thinking I hope that the one winner will pay for all the losers. I was tempted to close out the winner early. I had no idea that the payoff distribution for this strategy would be so extreme - 8 tiny losses before hitting a big win. Pays to keep the losses tiny and keep swinging.
  4. J' Trade Log

    Today had 3 trades, + 73 bps. The 2nd red dot on ALB was an error, somehow 1 share got executed at the lower price. I started new batch of trades today. The tweak was the exit is now based on trailing exit instead of manually calling it. I found it to be extremely uncomfortable as I sat through each retracement on DPZ. To see profit retrace back to zero or negative is associated with much pain. It feels as if it's a permanent loss. My goal is to execute my trading plan and not trade based on my emotions. I am very proud of the 2nd exit on DPZ for 170bps. I will do my best to continue this work. I do notice I may be giving back a bit too much on my losers, I will not change anything until the next batch of trades.
  5. J' Trade Log

    I forgot to post yesterday. I was down 72 bps.
  6. J' Trade Log

    1 trade today. +137bps. I missed another big runner by 10 seconds. It's all good. posting both charts. I'm glad to be back. I do notice I made a mental error on my exit. I was focusing on how the last 2 trades I had were small losses, which made me want to tighten my stop on this trade just a tad too soon. I then said oh its been 30mins since open so I can tighten my stop now. That is me trying to make up a rule on the spot. Next time this comes to mind, I will actively disconnect the two. Overall, I am feeling pretty good about it. I'm excited that I'm near complete of collecting sample of 20 trades for the first batch.
  7. J' Trade Log

    First day back from Fiji. 2 small losses today. Nothing much I could have done differently. Good trades, good exits. There was a second trade on ANET (blue line). I skipped that trade by mistake. At the time of entry, I thought it would not work because the first one didn't work. That is a classic prediction error. I cannot know what will happen next. The goal is not to predict but to execute properly.
  8. J' Trade Log

    Currently in Fiji for a seminar. Can’t wait to get back to the strategy next week.
  9. Reading Charts in Real Time

    I’m currently in Fiji checking in on my positions. Looks like GBP would have hit T1 and almost T2. This trade is sure taking a really long time. I can see why with real money the trade would be quite challenging on psych to wait it out. The EUR kept going down and did not bounce at anticipated area.
  10. Reading Charts in Real Time

    Update on GU. Moved stop down. This is the 3rd day in this trade.
  11. J' Trade Log

    3 trades this morning. 2 BEs and 1 decent runner.
  12. J' Trade Log

    I woke up for the opening today and learned quite a bit. The strongest stocks at the open tend to get the most attention and therefore give you a nice pop. I didn't trade them but watched. I ended up taking 5 trades. 4 scratches and 1 went all the way up all day. I can see why this method is really tough on the normal psyche. You have more losses than gains on average and you gotta let the winners run. The result was actually fantastic.
  13. Reading Charts in Real Time

    Update on GU and EU. GU now move to BE. No trades on EU yet.
  14. Reading Charts in Real Time

    Here's current view and projection on EU
  15. Reading Charts in Real Time

    Entry triggered on the short. This area here could also become support. If a counter 123 forms at this support area, will look to reverse long.
  16. J' Trade Log

    Just 1 entry today, Saw the previous day's R flip to S, with room from the gap to run up. Waited 3 mins, price was stalling few pennies below entry. Took me myself out of the market. Good trade.
  17. Reading Charts in Real Time

    I've been reading up all the old Thales posts. So much gems here. I'll post FX setups as I see them. Is anyone from the old days still around and trading? Thales, Kiwi, MK, DB, Atto, Forrest... who am I missing...
  18. J' Trade Log

    I was not well prepared today. I felt like I was too distracted with looking at longer term swing strategy at the same time as trading intraday. Ended up having 1 entry on AMZN. There were about 3 other trades that netted in small losses but were not taken.
  19. J' Trade Log

    Today was the first day on the revised mechanical strategy. At one point I had 7 orders in the books ready to go and market ended up triggering zero trades. I was very calm for most of the part of the session and did not stray from my trading plan. I'm extremely proud of my execution of my trading plan today even though no trades executed. Happy Trading!
  20. J' Trade Log

    Today was the first full day I started with this method. I learned quite a bit. First, I realized that the criteria I had set for this batch of mechanical trades were too loose and is too subjective to emotional bias. After reviewing the charts, I realized it is much easier to mechanically test by buying intermediate consolidations above the MA followed by new highs. If I miss the initial entry, I can take a secondary entry if at least a box of 4 bars have formed (thank you Darvas). I will then use a volatility stop indicator for exits. Up to two trades per instrument per day. No trade if price is right below R for longs and S for shorts. I'm in the first stage of becoming a consistently profitable trader (as described in Mark Douglas' books). In this stage, I will focus on taking mechanical entries and exits to strengthen awareness in probabilistic mindset. Second, I'm surprised looking at the charts that buying new highs actually work on average. Every new high break of the intermediate consolidation gave a nice running start. yet during the actual breakout, my mind was filled with doubt. Fascinating mind. By using volatility stop, I can make this exercise easier for me. The goal is not to focus on making money but focus on mastering the skills of execution without hindrance of memory based mental bias, also known as hope and fear. Third, I'm surprised that no shorts triggered today. Looking at the NQ, I can see it was all day up. It's also fascinating how NQ danced around the S/R lines I had drew in from the previous days. I already miss watching NQ but I'm going to stay focused on my stock strategy. Fourth, in the afternoon, when NQ rocketed, all of my Nasdaq stock trades made large moves at the same time. Amazon, Apple, ADP. Going forward I'll make sure not to have more than 2 units of risk exposure on at the same time. So only take a new trade after stop have moved up for protection. Fifth, my discretionary stop movement can really be improved. I'm going to use volatility based stops for now because I'm going to focus on taking entries for now. The actual trading results (in units of risk based on stop size) today would be -.2, -1, -.5, -.5, +1.1, 0, 0, 0 for a total net of -1.1R. Tomorrow is going to be great day. I'm looking forward to testing this system and develop consistency in being a successful trader. Best, J
  21. Reading Charts in Real Time

    Hi all, I have read Thales since the beginning of this thread. I feel a bit down right now that after all these years i'm still not consistently trading. I am up slightly this year (first year ever) due to a nice swing trade. I am curious if anyone here have reached consistency using the 123 trading method. Midknight? Cory? Niko? Your sincere comments will be appreciated. Best, J
  22. Reading Charts in Real Time

    Cory you are doing fine man. the market is just choppy today. I thought about going long there too but range is tight and no 123. if u change ur strat and tomorrow it runs 100+pip u will be banging your head again.. i'm on the same boat... needa work on better exit. enjoy your drink man. J
  23. Reading Charts in Real Time

    nice short.. i closed my long on that 123 trigger.. didnt short though.. looking good
  24. Reading Charts in Real Time

    hi thales.. i am a bit surprised you'd advice on getting in early. when u mean anticipate the break of 2 do u mean getting in somwhere in the blue shaded area or before even that
  25. Reading Charts in Real Time

    Hi Cory, You are one committed mofo... good stuff on the posts... i've been doing 123 (15m) also on the eu for almost 9months now... my pnl since live has been about BE for the last 2 months and finally took a up swing (doesn't mean it'll continue lol.. who knows) i gotta say this stuff is damn frustrating and only when i trade with ZERO expectation do i do well. not sure how your BE stops are doing.. i found that its best not to do it until a swing is completed. this is harder said then done due to the psych needs but at this point i am more infuriated with a BE tag out then with a full stop... good luck.. and keep fucking that chicken... J

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