Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

TraderBG

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Content Count

    63

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by TraderBG

  3. Posted

    I'm wanting to learn about the bond market. Not to trade it but rather to gauge investor confidence mostly on an intraday basis but also on a longer swing-term basis. Which bonds should I be paying most attention to? How can I use them to measure inflation expectations? Fed rate change expectations? Or anything I'm missing.

     

    Bonds are only the beginning of a larger goal. My main intent is to learn market correlations not only with bonds but also with other classes such as gold, the dollar, foreign and US equities and how they interrelate and how captial flows from one to the other.

     

    Can someone refer me to some resources (preferably free and online but books work too) or just pour out your own knowledge if you'd like.

     

    Thanks for all the help thus far!

  5. Posted

    But to answer your question I found this article.

     

    Here's some extract:

    The dataset he used goes from 1970 only until 2004, so it might well miss out some of the more recent volatility in correlation. But even stopping at 2004, Coaker concludes that it's not enough to invest in uncorrelated assets; you have to invest in consistently uncorrelated assets. And if you want a consistently uncorrelated asset to offset your US equity exposure, the best thing he can find for you is natural resources.

     

    Natural resources have had a correlation of less than .20 to all 17 other assets in this study, with the highest being just .19, for both small growth and small value. Natural resources have had the lowest average correlations—and the most consistently low correlations—to every asset in this study, including every category of stocks, bonds, and alternatives. Hence, natural resources have provided more diversification benefits than every other asset in this study. Of special note, natural resources have had a negative correlation 83 percent of the time to U.S. bonds, due to their inverse relationship to inflation.

     

    Thanks Flojomojo. From these stats and the responses from others as well, I'm thinking natural resources is the way I'm gonna go. Much appreciation to you all.

  6. Posted

    Well, luckily my signals still worked very well today. I got 4 sell signals on the ES all of which were very profitable. I feel a little less worried now, but it's only one day so we'll see. Did anyone have problems with their signals today?

     

    Thanks for everyone's relies

  9. Posted

    I'm a bit worried about the ban on shorts in financials. Even though I trade the ES, I'm concerned it will effect the reliability of the patterns I've worked so hard to master over the past couple of years. Is anyone else worried about this? And do you guys think this ban will last indefinitely? Furthermore, without getting into a political debate, I'm also a bit concerned that if Obama gets in office that he will further interfere with the markets with more regulations and what not. Is anyone else concerned about any of these things?

  11. Posted

    I'm looking to learn to trade one more futures market that is as uncorrelated to the ES as possible, neither directly nor inversely. I know all markets are interrelated in some fashion but I'm looking for one that doesn't move in tandem like the YM does, nor inversely like the bonds do. The reason I ask is because there are certain types of days I don't like to trade the ES and if the ES is untradable the same usually goes for the markets mentioned above. It needs to be open during regular US hours and have nice volume. Any suggestions?

  12. Posted

    I thank you all for your advice and encouragement. I've read over each post and am considering each one carefully.

     

    smwinc brings up an interesting point which makes me wonder: Since I've done so much of my learning during an extremely volatile period, I wonder if this will this help me or hurt me in the long run?

     

    Thanks again to all of you.

  13. Posted

    OK, so I've been training and preparing for this moment for well over 3 years now. I've been consistently profitable on paper for many months. I feel I have firmly established my edge in the market based on my own observation and statistical analysis (not others) and am capitalized enough to meet my risk parameters for my style of trading. I will be going live sometime either next week or the week after. This isn't the first time I've traded live but it is the first time I will be trading with a clear edge.

     

    My question may seem kind of lame to some but I'm wondering what's the best way to mentally prepare for the transition? I'm known to operate like a machine in situations like this but for me there is no such thing as over preparation. I want to minimize the pain of transition the best I can so any advice from others will be greatly appreciated.

     

    FYI I'm 24 years old and I will be daytrading index futures if that matters.

     

    Thanks for any advice!

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.

  I accept