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speres
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Posts posted by speres
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I'll repeat. Apparently MT provide virtual dealer plug ins for their platform that regulates execution by up to 5 seconds. Are you connected with MT?
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You know that MT is the charting platform that many different FX brokers use and is not a broker by itself?Of course, but mt4 provides the plug ins for brokers to use as they see fit
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I have a system that is geared to the release of market moving news. After I just got crushed on today's employment report (thought I could get a least a 50 point drop in the euro), I realized something that maybe others have encountered. My data shows that my win percentage is the worst for the US news releases, actually so bad that I will now take a break on the US news. When I trade any other currency I simply trade it against the dollar. Works fine. When the US news is released, I now have a choice amongst all other currencies. Obviously not all the currencies react the same, so in this scenario may data has shown that some would win in my system and some would lose. It doesn't matter if the markets are open or closed. In fact, today I got crushed in the Euro but would have won in the Aussie. I was wondering if anyone else ever encountered this problem? I am going to hold off on trading the US news until further notice.good, stay away from news for now. Pro's will use a good news release to unload their position, this is just 1 example.
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Obviously london and us is a good time to trade but you do get to some decent levels during asia or any other time of day other than us or uk that is tradeable
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I'll give you my opinion of mt4 when I tried them out, which a lot of people seem to swear by.... I was getting requoted constantly, where entry within a few pips is very important for me..., my fills where no where near price quoted.... I remember thinking what a rip off...
Later I heard that mt4 have plug ins for delays in execution and slippage, but hey make your own mind up...
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This a great article, read and fully understand...
Documenting the data of your trading is essential to success. Also, it's of vital importance to track not only the "mechanical" data; i.e., the data of the actual trading execution (entry, targets, stops and exits); but you must track the "internal" data as well; i.e., what you are thinking, emotionally feeling, and the unconscious beliefs that are driving the T + E + B = R equation. In this equation that is involved in "all" of our outcomes, T = thought, E = emotions, B = behavior and R = results. So, you've got to attend to the data of this equation because it is involved with every trading decision that you make.
A Thought Journal is designed to reveal destructive and constructive thought patterns. A Trade Journal is designed to reveal your self-destructive behaviors and your positive behaviors. Human beings are impulsively driven by greed and the desire to dominate. They will take the easiest way to get and keep what they want. This often has negative and unintended consequences that are frequently destructive. And humans are not naturally prone to accountability or self-discipline, which is why we need laws, rules, boundaries, and limits in society.
Trading requires self-imposed limits and these limits must be created through personal accountability. You must know what you require in the way of protocols, strategies and rules in order to create effective self-limits or self-control. Documenting actual behavior provides the data to compare to your thinking and to identify strength and weakness - thinking precedes behavior and behavior reflects thinking. When you accurately record the thinking that was present during a trade, it exposes your actual state of mind, not the desired state or the one that we tell ourselves we have already. This confronts illusion about your true skill. Some of the things to look for are:
Was my stop/limit hit or did I take myself out?
How much time was I in the trade?
Then compare your recorded thoughts to your trade plan:
Where are the inconsistencies?
Where are the congruencies?
Is anything different than what I planned or expected?
It's very important to identify the weaknesses and the strengths of your execution. After that, new habits and supportive behaviors can be created.
It is critically important to identify the faulty patterns of thinking causing the errant behavior. After identifying the bad behavior, isolate it by creating rules to follow. When the rule has been created, use mental techniques and tools like the ones taught in the Extended Learning Track (XLT) - Mastering the Mental Game class to help support effective ways to modify the bad behavior one trade at a time. Thought and emotions are difficult to control. The difficulty stems from the deep-seated and unconscious nature of the programmed patterns that cause the unwanted behavior to begin with. The goal is to get into a mental place to see how the behavior reflected foggy thinking and how thoughts and emotions work together to create results - this knowledge helps to create rules designed to cut losses and position you to re-observe the order flow without the emotional noise.
Personality is an amalgam; that is, we have many parts to us that don't always get along. Your personality is formed through the learned achievements and learned limitations that are presented through your MAPs and personal mythology. The "parts," so to speak, are sub-personalities formed through patterning as a response to certain environmental conditions. For instance, you may act differently with your father than with your mother, especially if you didn't grow up with one or the other. It is also likely that you have a different persona at the office than at home. And you may act differently when stressed and under pressure than when you are relaxed and unthreatened.
Different parts of you reflect different program patterns. You are not always the same and how you are is based upon what part of you shows up. Also, the environment, biorhythms, discomfort vs. comfort, and recent events that may have shaken your confidence, all have an impact upon who shows up. So, sometimes you are confident and relaxed; sometimes you are agitated and anxious; sometimes you are depressed and fatalistic. Deep-seated MAPs or mental models create these emotions. They result in "who is coming to the trade today" and greatly affect how events are perceived. In other words, do you perceive the reality of the chart? The goal is to get on the right side of the order flow. The order flow is a natural and free flowing phenomena and it is an open-ended system that resonates with itself. The ideal as a trader is to approach the market system in an open and available state, and in balance with yourself and resonating with the organic aspects of the market system. You want to be focused on supporting your effectiveness, and a big part of that is accepting the market reality. It's about becoming one with the organic market forces. This means remaining in a constant state of observation, whether getting in or staying out, or staying in or getting out.
When you do something that you enjoy, like riding a bike, you can choose to ride or not ride, and you can ride as long as you want, riding easy or energetically. The laws of centrifugal force remain the same. As long as you pedal, you will continue to ride, and if you stop, the laws still continue. By embracing the market as perpetual motion of an organic system with never-ending unfolding events, in harmony with itself, you are better positioned to approach it with the internal harmony of your highest and best self. The question is, "How close to my A-game, my highest and best self, am I at this moment?" The market is constant (like centrifugal force). You don't need to be concerned with the market. You just need to be fully present, in that moment, and available for it. There is no right, wrong, good, bad, should, must, can't, hope, fear, pain, or other hyperbolic emotional moniker that can rightfully be attributed to the market system. "Things are as they are and I am the way I am. I am always participating. It is what it is and I am what I am."
Your Thought Journal and Trade Journal work together to confront weaknesses and consolidate strengths. You create new rules to modify your behavior until you sense you are in the feedback loop of the trade. As you consistently support your effectiveness by building your strengths and consistently minimizing your weaknesses, you become more and more aligned with what the market is - a natural system. Waiting and watching is a form of participation in the market. Becoming symbiotic with this natural system is to watch the price action breathe and move.
With experience, and by increasing your capacity for internal alignment between your parts through journal work, you and the market can become aligned. When this happens, you see the order flow as it is and not as you "wish" it would be. Then you may choose to get in. If you sense you are not aligned, you get out. But whether you are aligned or not, you are always getting in or getting out, depending on the needs you have at that moment.
The Feedback Loop of the Thought Journal and Trade Journal process provides a roadmap and blueprint of where you want to go and what you want to build in your trading so you can accurately see and participate in the order flow without being overly influenced by emotional interference. The objective of emotional interference is not to eliminate it. Emotions are an inextricable part of who we are as human beings.
The point is to learn how to understand more about them so they can be contained and managed and seen as an ally to boost the drive to stay on course so behavior and performance are not adversely affected. As you modify both cause and effect, you know where that modification is leading. By knowing your strengths and weaknesses as a trader, knowing the state you want to achieve, and knowing you are on the path to getting there, you close the gap between you and the market. Your natural ability to perform and the market's natural ability to perform, are better aligned, and the correct action to take next is self-evident. Get in, stay in or get out, stay out.
So, always have your journals at the ready. Remember, you can't change what you can't face, and you can't face what you don't know. Document, record, measure and track your market participation. Learn to bring your A-game to your platform and keep your A-game while in the trade. This is just one of the concepts that are taught in the Mastering the Mental Game course and the coaching XLT. Ask your Education Counselor for more information
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I find a good entry will keep your losses down to a few pips. If you concentrate on the value areas with a good entry, even in the forex markets, and a good understanding of price action you quickly know when your wrong and then you have an excellent rr.... Once you've mastered your entrys and reasons for entry then exits should follow naturally as price usually has a target, then your not likely to be shaken out and miss out on all those pips, that are extremely important in making it as a trader..
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I think in more detail Stoping Volume should have narrow spread therfore this volume stop the price move down coz SmarMoney buying all and this cause narrow spread.and Selling Climax have wide spread and close in the middle or on top. and it causes by bad news and possibly also margin calls.
I think your getting confused too, stopping volume is stopping volume. the down trend stops, what kind of bar you have does'nt matter.
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Your not missing anything. Stopping volume is in fact that, if its high vol and price reverses then its stopping vol. So, the volume is called stopping vol and the reversal bar or the price action is a selling climax.
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This is pretty strange. I possibly will have to wait to see what this does, but in the meantime is this positive volume spike without a spread important? How can there be 300% (amking up a number) more buyers than the previous 3 bars combined, and the price does not change?I know we shouldn't pay attention who is responsible, but if it was professional money, there would've been a price spread?
there doesnt have to be a big spread to mean professional moneys involved,
you can have plenty of weak buyers coming in trying to pick a bottom and the pro's will happily sell to them....
.think of an auction, if buyers come in and theres less sellers price increases, the spread just shows the balance of buyers and sellers,high vol, low vol doesnt matter
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What is it like being an oil trader?Article by BBC located here.
A programmer I know is currently working for an oil company developing trading software that tracks the oil tankers across the globe.
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G'day Geoff and welcome... I dont know who the best is as I dont programme but I do trade forex. wealth lab, meta trader or vt trading seem popular....
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Just curious if anyone had actual trade results for using straight VSA trading ES mini on an irntraday basis using a 3 min time frame? Not that im not a fan I love the concepts and many are spot on. The only issue Im adressing is the way price is pushed around on low volume by the pros to shake you out of good trade locations. During the day after the initial drive away from the opening range, when the "smart money" has left the market who is it making your life miserable ? Is it just the eb and flow of normal trade or something a little more sinister? Probably a little of both . And do you stay in the trades your in when the shift has occured or do you let the runners go? Could be an interesting side bar if there is any input . Hope a few posts could get something going.I think you just answered your own question....... also, you need to keep an eye on the higher tf's, you see theres all different players, on all the different tf's...
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No prob, VJ. A+ for effort at least.So, what were you upset about, this hijacking thing? I never saw the posts that Soultrader deleted so I don't know the dirt. Just glad we're back on track.
And speaking of back on track, dontcha think it's time we checked out some monthly charts? Heck, we've got the whole weekend (OK, it's not like I have a life or anything).
I'll start off with a monthly chart of the $SPX. Comments typed on chart.
I should have added that price tested the lows of 2002 two months ago with what looks like a potential shakeout (that would be November's candle). Then we got a test on volume lower than the previous 2 bars (3, actually) which looked bullish. Then we got January's "No Buying Pressure" (if I'm reading it right), which throws into doubt the highly tentative bullishness of that test candle.
So, I guess the jury's still out, but the bullish case sure don't look too damn convincing, at least not to me.
No doubt I'm missing obvious stuff (I do that). so any comments/corrections/additions welcome.
Tasuki
Great chart. What jumps out to me is the 'degree of trend'......
No real bounce off that support with the high volume, which is what you would expect, if demand came to town... The volume could then be profit taking.... the big boys making quite a killing... An increase in vol would also be expected with it being a supp area with a few buyers coming in... and so the fun and games continue...
How many times have you seen high volume on wide spread down bars only for price to carry on south?? heaps for me...
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I've been trading full time for 3 years and I'm still losing money. I'm at the end of my rope! Looking for some help, words of encouragement, or even some harsh words from those who know.I'm in my late 40's, broker is IB, day-trading NQ.
Three years ago I was laid off and took it as an opportunity to go full time into trading. Had enough money to make a good go of it. Prior to this, I'd read all Larry Williams material, plus all the classics as well as many other books. I traded with a broker for several years. Net result was to lose my $20K trading capital.
When I was laid off, I figured I could spend a few months paper-trading and then go live and start making money. Seemed logical, as everything else I'd done in my life worked that way! Most things I've tried ended successfully.
Not trading.
Began with a mix of live and paper trading. Took me two years to paper trade successfully, all the while losing controlled amounts live At this point I can usually make my target of $100 net profit trading NQ in less than half an hour, on paper. Logically, this should translate into some success trading live, if not the same success.
But no, not at all! I'm still losing my loss limit every day, after three years of this. When I reach my loss limit, and go back to simulated trading, boom, target in 10 minutes, or 15 minutes. Next day, same thing.
When I close on a small loss, it turns around. When I hold the loss waiting for it to turn around, it doesn't, but keeps growing--hold, hold, hold, loss keeps growing--close the trade and boom! it turns around. When I hold waiting for a move, the market inevitably moves against me. When I close after waiting for it to move, it goes in my favor, without me. When I'm profitable with a minuscule couple of ticks, hold, hold, hold waiting for the big move I can see coming, and give up after waiting too long, then Boom! it shoots to the moon, as expected. Again without me.
Net result is my losses grow at an astounding pace, my profits are like try to build a tower by stacking sheets of kleenex.
Is this game rigged? Seems like my broker is trading against me, feeding me whatever market data they need to clean me out. Is this just paranoia, or am I wasting my time and money here?
Is it worth persisting? Can one really be successful trading from home?
You can but it takes Education And Discipline
If you wish, pm me and I will help.
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My view is that any 'system' requires an experienced trader to use a certain amount of discretion.This is why teaching a system to a new trader is merely a step in the right direction (hopefully) on a journey that has many steps.Another problem is that so many of the trading 'truths' - trend is your friend etc, are right but also often wrong.Personally, i think the most vital thing to know at any given point is,are the smart money buying or selling? and to trade in the same direction as them.Not an easy question to answer a lot of the time,so another question you could ask at any given point is,who stands to get hurt the most,bulls or bears? The market is designed to take out your stop and then reverse- wider stops and a lot more patience before entering a trade would serve most struggling traders well (imo)As to the rule of 10 i am new to this but was reading about it on a journal on another forum and decided to apply it mostly on ohlc rather than attempting to decipher every wiggle.A check on recent ohlc historical data (sp500 cash) looked promising for an add on to my usual strategies.Ohlc are mostly fib ratios so the 2 systems can fit well together (except when they dont!)
Good point, It all sounds quite easy really... whats the smart money doing are they buying or selling? accumulating or distributing, who's fueling the rally? know this and you;ve cracked it.. We all know it is'nt easy tho..
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Gosh...although I trade demo I regret to have stood on the sidelines today. Attached is a 15 and 5 min EUR/USD chart.I was a bit scared to enter during the morning drive up seen to the left. (oh these damn emotions!) I then made a meager 5 pip trade in the sideway movement...and honestly...got bored...thats when I missed the US GDP news release and the critical downthrust bar just before the release! There would have been a 100-200 pip trade in the move and its reversal.
In hindsight the chart screams to me what it wanted to tell me at the time.
I'm absorbing VSA knowledge only since a week, so, are my chart comments correct? Anything else there that should have cought my attention? How do you people deal with the information overflow while analyzing bars in real time?...I tend to search a meaning in every bar...I guess I need to be a bit more laid back and be on the hunt rather than running around like a chicken... :crap:
Good trading,
Flojomojo
Stay away from those news releases while ur learning bro, you've a long way to go yet.
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Quite a few years ago I used to trade the ES using a simple breakout strategy that did rather well. Once a week I would get a 'home run' or 10 points, this is when I would close the position. Had a look at fading the run but I recall not really seeing much into it and it seemed like trying to catch a top or bottom which is a mugs game in my opinion.
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I'd have to disagree. The Close of the bar is very important in doing analysis of any kind.hey sledge
I agree and disagree, I would'nt say 'any kind' for example when reading the flow, bar close is'nt important...
all the best
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Hi Speres;I assume that you are referring to my status quote, I just don't think there is anything else I can learn, I think I have reached the end of the road, and I have to say I am disappointed because life is most interesting when you are trying to overcome a hurdle, Tom Williams cannot teach me anything, he cannot find any faults in my analysis, can any of you out there teach me something about VSA technique I cannot see in a chart for myself?
So now what? do I just turn that knowledge into a fortune? I don't need anyones else's money, I have more than enough for my needs and wants, so will I be miserable for the rest of my life? Gavin wants me to run the educational side of TradeGuider, I have agreed to work for them on a part time basis.
Everyone in this room is talking about success, or trying to find it, but how many of you are thinking about the consequences of that success, and what will you find in yourself if you then arrive at that success? will you become bored of trading? will success make you slack in your discipline?
For me there is no challenge in reading the market anymore, no struggle to make me feel excited, I have thought of finding someone who has decimated their account and replenishing it for them, but what would that achieve?, be warned that if you reach the top of your tree, what expectations will you have then? That is the reason for my status quote under my name.
I am currently writing a book similar to Tom's, but explaining all the principles that Wyckoff wanted the public to understand, going into great detail, better than any book I have read, giving hundreds of charts in greater detail than my PDF postings last November, I am hoping that I can help someone with no experience to become someone who can support themselves financially on their own two feet, through the book and training videos, then I might not have a reason to exist after that. And Tom has been asking me to write a book for the last four years, so I caved in.
Best wishes to you all.
Sebastian
Hey Seb
Yes I was and thanks for your honesty.Unfortunately I don't think I could currently teach you anything I'm afraid..... Reaching the enlightened level is still the goal for me, but I have often thought what would happen once this has been achieved...... I'm sure if you made someone a heap of money they would blow it in no time with little thanks.... I've been lucky enough to have had some mentoring over the last year or so from a price guru and a real nice bloke too, hes around but stays in the shadows so to speak.
i'm sure the book will be a great read and I hope you find your solace Seb
all the best
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Dear all experts,In looking for a no demand bar or no supply bar, beside volume do we need to consider the close of the bar . Do we need the close of the bar be lower than the middle point of the bar to confirm a no demand bar ?
Thanks for all your kind help
The close does'nt really matter to be honest Winnie, a low vol pullback is the same...
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Hi Guy'sLate buying on the close today ES contract, should mean higher open Thursday.
Regards Sebastian
Hey Seb
whats your next step after VSA or are you happy with where your at? on a personnel level I won't rest until a full understanding of all the games that are played is achieved...... might take a while tho..:crap:
all the best
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Also was there any follow through after the increased volume? You see the increased volume, what was the effect?
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How to know whether an up bar is a no demand bar or just take rest of a downtrend and then resume the downtrend ? For example, if we see a downtrend( or last bar is strong down bar with wide spread and big volume) and then an up bar with a lower volume than previous two bar, can we say that the bar is a no demand bar ?Thanks
Thats what a no demand bar is Winnie, I think you answered your own question...
What is a no demand bar for instance? Price moves up on low volume. Pro money has withdrawn and has no interest in higher prices at this time. Hence low volume.
To your second question (strong down bar with wide spread and big volume) the volume would have to be very big for a trend reversal for starters.Is the volume huge is the first question you ask yourself. Then you get a move up on low vol. Is this no demand?, well it might be, smart money might not have finished distribution yet for example and so have withdrawn, but after a possible sign of strength would you short the no demand, of course not.
Debate: Hard stops or mental stops?
in Technical Analysis
Posted
Always a mental stop, I let price action dictate whether I'll be closing or not,your stop needs to be away from those areas with clusters of orders, they will be hit and obvioulsy you need a hard stop in the background