Sledge

Post # 68 Gaps are filled. Interesting early morning action in the Euro. Check out the chart below. First we see a dark WRB followed by a GAP in price. Note the first candle with a double arrow. Notice that the volume is ultra high and the bar closes lower than the previous bar and off of its low. VSA teaches that this is a bar that may have buying within it. Now the next bar is key. It turns out to be a WRB, but the fact that the bar is up means the prior bar MUST of had some buying contained within it. Now we move to the white WRB itself. Note that this bar creates a zone or range where we get a change in the supply/demand dynamic. We also know that the market does not like wide spread up bars on ultra high volume because of the possibility of hidden selling. In this case, however, the volume actually fell from the previous bar and is not ultra high. We move to the next candle with a double arrow below. This is a doji that closes equal to the previous bar and in the upper portion of its range. Volume on this bar is Ultra high. There is SUPPLY in the market at this stage. Price moves down from here. Next candle, closes in the upper portion of its range and higher than its open. Volume again is extreme. Here we have Demand showing itself. In other words, Demand is swamping Supply on this bar. SOMETHING HAS CHANGED. Notice that the next bar closes in its middle, has an equal close and volume drops off. The Last bar closes on its high on volume that is less than the previous two bars. Although it does not make a lower low, this is a 'test' bar. The Smart Money is testing for supply and finds none. Now price is poised to go up and fill that gap.

I'll start to re-post what I have to assist in any way I can with the original post #'s from VSA Thread #1 **All of the Posts AND Charts are PP's Work and not my own!** Post #5 That is simply not the case. The text may seem "outdated" in that there much talk of Market Makers, but this only goes to show how the principles have stood the test of time. How the markets are manipulated by Smart Money (the term Todd Krueger prefers to Market Makers) remains little changed since the days of Wyckoff. I find it hard to believe that you think there are not Professionals with things on their screen, like where the stops are, that the retail trader does not have. The playing field in simply not that level. I have attached a chart showing what is going on in the Euro. A market (retail Spot Forex) not even around at the time the book.

Someone hasd stated that they had taken all of PP charts and saved them- not sure who it was or when it was posted, but I was going through the 1st VSA thread from the start and reviewing all of PP's charts and posts that went with them. Maybe someone still has all of these charts and posts saved off somewhere? Whatever PP's reasoning- I am uncertain, but I am glad to have gotten to look and use his charts, that I was able to see and match up with his analysis. I only got to post #711 before they all went away. But if their is a chance others have saved charts and posts- maybe the knowledge can be re-created. I found his posts as enlightening- if not moreso than reading Master the Markets- very straightforward, and timely with multiple detail. It would be a shame if all that work was lost forever! Sledge

Ed and JJ- Thank you both. I REALLY wish I could afford the investment in Tradeguider. Or at the very least- to use a Demo for like 30 days just to get the feel. Sadly, right now I am trying to learn VSA the old fashioned way- no Tradeguider to help me- just learning to read the bars/volume/charts. 99% of the time I am doing well, but today PROVED to me that I have TONS to learn still- with both the information you gave me, it shows I have no where near the grasp on the VSA subject that I thought I did. Not to say I thought I was any expert by a longshot- but this was a huge wakeup call for me to keep reading and Re-reading "Master the Markets" It is a slow read as it is so packed with information- at least I wised up over the last 7 months and am only trying to learn it on one type of trade- you should have seen me trying theories on 7 different currencies (unaware that they each have their own "personality.") Much thanks to you both for pointing out the (now) obvious! Man I love this board! Sledge

Ed- Here is the chart, I see increasing Volume and BOOM- out it went! 5 Pips from my target!

OK All- Still in my infancy of learning VSA but I have a question about GBP/USD this AM for anyone who may have access to charts- the bars in question are easy as cake to see. This week the 1 HR Trendline was textbook upward moving. It touched the line over the last few days in an astonishing manner. All signs pointed towards my 1.9945 target would be hit this AM. Then the bottom fell out. My question to the VSA Pro's is Why? My theories are: 1. It is Friday and Extreme Profit Taking went on and the Non-Farm Payroll was the perfect news item to transfer to weak holders (get them into shorts for the move and the rest of the day.) 2. This is a Friday Markdown for a next week rally. My concern is that their appeared to be no weakness in the background- no abnormal movements- just nice accumulation/distribution over the week. Then all hell broke loose this morning. Am I reading this correctly in either of my above theories or did I just get the beatdown of a lifetime 5 pips short of my target?

JJ- Thank you. I just could not for the life of me figure out why it was in Freefall mode (you figure the supply would have to dry up sooner than later) After watching the Cable exclusively for the last 5 months it just fell harder and faster than its usual pace. You seem to get a gut feel in a sense of the range of which it will go after a while when you deal in only one currency/stock etc. I think I got my answer today- the rocket north was a thing of beauty to see for any trader- in the trade, on the sidelines or otherwise. Seb: If you still would comment on your earlier post about the lack of support by the professional smart money- I am still very interested in understanding more about this! Sledge

JJ- Glad to be posting and learning from my mistakes. Luckily on 2 of my three trades I am out with some beautiful results today- but last night- seeing my negative current position I thought "This is it, I'm going to blow my account" I was so sure I had seen the bottom and I was dead wrong. I have no problem being the example- this is a GREAT group of folks who really are a community and HELP- Nobody here saw my mistake and went- "Hey Moron you are in some serious ****" So for that I am grateful. I study VSA daily and learn daily- I hope to be as confident as many here are within 6 months- I know I am right on the verge- but still always have things to learn! Thank you for your insight- I will look carefully at my chart and the information you posted to assure this does not happen again! Sledge

Seb- No offense taken. Please- pick this apart and let me have it! I need to know why I haven't had a losing trade in 8 weeks- and called this one so very wrong! Thanks in advance! Sledge

JJ- Well I actually just watched the Tradeguider webcast today- my positions were already in long before I viewed it. My reasoning was if this is what the people who write and sell this software are saying (they saw what I saw) That is why I'm scratching my head. I have posted the Daily chart below. In it you see a push down to 1.9484 on 1/11/08. On 1/19/08 you see another test down that only makes it as far as 1.9510. As you can see when the market opened Sunday night you saw a nice gap up. Appears at least a nice bull run would begin. Apparently not. I make no claim I am an expert on VSA- I am still learning daily. So please feel free to tell me exactly what I missed on this- I am open to learning my mistakes so they can not be repeated. I have no fear the market is going to turn- I just would like to be Better at entry points. Thanks to all. Sledge

Question is with the GBP/USD: All indications seem to point at a market reversal to bull. Last week was stellar in taking longs- I honestly thought the bear run was over until the retrace came below the 1.9482 1/11/08 Low last night. I'm using VSA as well as using the COT Index as a background confirmation. I just watched the webcast on Tradeguider.com from the 17th and even the hosts were calling GBP Long--as long as the test was not on Ultra High Volume- My frustration lies in the fact that this damn thing keeps falling. Last night (This Morning) Monday AM London session seemed perfectly placed to be the turn and I fully expected a nice upward turn last evening (London)- But to no avail. Anyone have any light to shed on this- just doesn't seem it could possibly fall any lower than it is. My only caveat is that the COT Commercial is at 96.19 (Down from 100 two weeks ago) and Specs are at 4.36 (Up from 0.00 two weeks ago) I'm unsure if anyone here uses the COT Index in tandem with their VSA or not- but my hunch is that the "Smart Money" would like to see the Specs get BACK to or as near to 0.00 as they can before the turn (Thus they would have to dupe the herd into a rash of shorts) Any insight here? I'd also like to talk with people who do use COT Index in tandem with their VSA as well. Most appreciated. Sledge

Tasuki- Incredible. Thank you so very much for the chart and the info, that helps quite a bit! Regards, Percy, Sledge

Hello All- Just wanted to compliment this forum and thread in particular. I have been trading for about a year and recently stumbled upon the VSA method- sadly not a lot of info out there regarding it on the net so to see 100+ pages of discussion on the subject is like stumbling onto an information goldmine. I still have quite a bit to learn on VSA but the one NAGGING question that keeps my mind working is this: Is it possible to spot the "anvil" as I call it. Or "The floor falling out" I am working to determine- where is that move that makes the move turn. I'm sure you all know what I mean. I could get into a trade seeing that the upward move is nearly over, I see the "professional money" has offloaded the vast majority of their hold into the move and are letting "the herd" get hooked. You then see the some downward pressure and some upward move. I like to call it that "the fish is on the hook and fighting the inevidable" This could go on for hours- sometimes 2 sometimes 8 or 9. Then all of a sudden- the anvil drops, the floor falls out. And the Downward move crashed down like a tidal wave- 180, 200 pip drop- targets hit and money is pouring in if you have your sell order in. So how do we determine when this "drop" happens? I have been positioned correctly- but it kills me to watch a "fish on a hook" for 9 hours- any advice on how to determine when to wait a bit longer- but not miss out on the move? Great forum! Glad to be aboard. Sledge