Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

GlassOnion

Why Do People Engage in Self Destructive Behaviors?

Recommended Posts

Thanks Cactus Mo for your first post! One of the challenges of a space like TL is that we dare not get personal. So most comments are addressed to "you" or comment on what "they" do or don't do. I agree that this is no help at all.

 

So, my risk is that first-person honesty will invite attack ("you beginners always... "), so to protect myself there is, of course, writing this under an alias, and my power to ignore.

 

My benefit: I might find my own solution as I write. Or someone might share an insight from just ahead of me on this road.

 

You said: "Here is a solution, Automated trading."

 

This is exactly where I stand, today. My trading is on "pause" after yet another needless drawdown. For me, the automatic part will be around closing a position.

 

What gets in the way of my being *consistent* with this? From the past round, when I way unexpectedly up in my balance, now, reflecting back, I see how drug-like my euphoria was. So, for me, given the long hard climb back from my personal depths of despair, grief, & depression, these bursts of euphoria are like water to someone nearly dead from thirst. I soak it in.

 

But market don't give a sh*t about me, so now my high gains have turned to deep losses.

 

So, stops and limits are the next game changers for me. And part of me wants nothing to do with it. Thus, I pause as I untangle this puzzle.

 

Success in trading everyone,

Feng

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While this insight is not professional, as in "psychologist", my paid for as well as amateur work in applying genetic and other optimization algorithms to trading strategies has offered an interesting insight. While it is quite anecdotal when applied to psychology (explain, predict, control of human behavior) it is similar.

 

The context is that we accept that humans have optimized themselves in certain ways using genetic algorithms as part of their methods of self-development, "learning", or evolution.

 

Another element of context is that it is commonly accepted that evolutionary optimizing algorithms should be constrained to be "robust", meaning that variance of parameter values should minimally cause "fitness" to drop precipitously.

 

I have made the observation that optimization of trading strategies, which software can be written to do, and traders of all stripes have done by playing the trading game since they first traded in love, war, commerce, politics or religion, etc. causes an observable effect.

 

That effect is that optimizing the aggregation of maximum profit in the shortest time, (instant gratification?) particularly with too complex a parameter set, not only invites a reversal of fortune in a very short time in the future, but in observing a map of profit versus location in parameter space we often observe that maximum profits are a very short "distance" from maximum losses. The implication is that "trying too hard" will bring one to a point of being closer to danger of making a small mistake. That closeness of the best and the worst may be the result of over optimizing by either a digital computer algorithm or a biological computer algorithm.

 

I have found (statistically, analytically) that applying constraints (moderation) to the digital computing case and using fitness goals balanced over many dimensions (a well defined comprehensive trading plan comes to mind) helps prevent trading strategies from self destructing. Those disciplines may also help prevent people from "self-destructing".

 

I certainly am not a thoroughly studied expert on this, but I think it is a doorway to much future study and enlightenment. My own observations are just a discovery of great (to me) interest which I do not see much written about as yet (concerning trading strategy design capability in retail trading software) compared to what I think might remain yet to be discovered when it is pursued further.

 

This may not apply to all kinds of optimizations, but I do believe it applies to adaptive chaotic competitive survival game scenarios like "real life" in many of its amazing varieties as well as in trading in the markets.

 

To excel in achievement can involve a cost of greater risk of (self) destruction. To excel moderately in many dimensions can be less costly risk-wise than being top alpha dog in primarily one way such as rapid gains of monetary wealth. When people grow older and more experienced, they often grow to understand this better. Additionally, as people grow in experience, their perception of the time dimension changes, and they have a longer term viewpoint (historical data in memory) about optimizing present and future gratification and quality of life in more ways than when they were younger.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This sight can help you identify, and acknowledge, a mood (State of Mind, Mindset, Model) that's not favorable to the trading environment.

 

Speak for only twenty seconds to get an evaluation.

 

Home page - Beyond Verbal

 

 

Take the test on a day that you've decided to paper trade, and then again on a day after you've decided to trade with real money.

 

 

Is your state of mind conducive to the results you're getting? Yes.

 

To change you need the willpower to reverse the inclination to follow your state. An emotional (negative) state of mind where thoughts, feelings, and action work to support that state.

 

Or, at least know what state you are in. If, or when, in the state that produces results you dislike know you have to reverse what you feel comfortable as the right action to take.

 

Core values and beliefs?

 

After a trader has been burned a few times by emotional hijackings like these, a new condition arises where the amygdala (fear based reactive thinking) does not trust the thinking brain to manage the situation, and boom -- the learned self destructive circuits trigger and take over again...again... and again.

Rande Howell

 

 

As Rande stated we get stuck in a cycle (destructive circuits) where we see what we want to see. We believe what we want to believe even when we say the opposite.

 

"Trade what you see not what you feel." This alone has no meaning.

 

Understand that what we see is what we believe. What we believe is what we see.

What we feel is what we believe, and what we believe is how we feel. (For most it's destructive in uncertain environments)

 

Our state can change in a heart beat when a stressor triggers a past state of mind. Using money is this trigger, and your past state is associated to using money.

 

What changes are needed? I believe that my values guide my state of mind. If you value security over risk, the circuits will support security. This balance between taking risk vs. leaving your comfort zone is what traders must find. Then push the boundaries bit by bit.

 

The odds that the price action I choose to trade is greater than 75 percent in favor of success. I am using the 75 percent number after reading a scientific study (I didn't save it) that found was needed for one to feel a sense of confidence in future outcomes, and leavings past experiences behind. It sounds like they found a number that works for most to be in the NOW, or present.

 

Paper trading is a start at this point, but then I think it would be best to actually post entries and exits in a chat room winning 75 percent of the time before moving onto using money. This may be bad advice because their is always negativity, and stuff you don't need to absorb in a chat room. Many think stuff does not affect them, but it does. For some, one message triggers a negative, or fight/flight, aggressive, or avoidance, state of mind. What state of mind must you stay cool in a calm assertive state.

 

Being my own psychologist was the only way to effectively unlearn my previous programming. People hate change, and the older you get (especially over 40) the harder it is to change. (Can't teach an old dog new tricks) I wish luck to those pursuing this challenge.

 

Jeffrey

Edited by jaysmith124

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This sight can help you identify, and acknowledge, a mood (State of Mind, Mindset, Model) that's not favorable to the trading environment.

 

Speak for only twenty seconds to get an evaluation.

 

Home page - Beyond Verbal

 

 

Take the test on a day that you've decided to paper trade, and then again on a day after you've decided to trade with real money.

 

 

Is your state of mind conducive to the results you're getting? Yes.

 

To change you need the willpower to reverse the inclination to follow your state. An emotional (negative) state of mind where thoughts, feelings, and action work to support that state.

 

Or, at least know what state you are in. If, or when, in the state that produces results you dislike know you have to reverse what you feel comfortable as the right action to take.

 

Core values and beliefs?

 

 

 

 

As Rande stated we get stuck in a cycle (destructive circuits) where we see what we want to see. We believe what we want to believe even when we say the opposite.

 

"Trade what you see not what you feel." This alone has no meaning.

 

Understand that what we see is what we believe. What we believe is what we see.

What we feel is what we believe, and what we believe is how we feel. (For most it's destructive in uncertain environments)

 

Our state can change in a heart beat when a stressor triggers a past state of mind. Using money is this trigger, and your past state is associated to using money.

 

What changes are needed? I believe that my values guide my state of mind. If you value security over risk, the circuits will support security. This balance between taking risk vs. leaving your comfort zone is what traders must find. Then push the boundaries bit by bit.

 

The odds that the price action I choose to trade is greater than 75 percent in favor of success. I am using the 75 percent number after reading a scientific study (I didn't save it) that found was needed for one to feel a sense of confidence in future outcomes, and leavings past experiences behind. It sounds like they found a number that works for most to be in the NOW, or present.

 

Paper trading is a start at this point, but then I think it would be best to actually post entries and exits in a chat room winning 75 percent of the time before moving onto using money. This may be bad advice because their is always negativity, and stuff you don't need to absorb in a chat room. Many think stuff does not affect them, but it does. For some, one message triggers a negative, or fight/flight, aggressive, or avoidance, state of mind. What state of mind must you stay cool in a calm assertive state.

 

Being my own psychologist was the only way to effectively unlearn my previous programming. People hate change, and the older you get (especially over 40) the harder it is to change. (Can't teach an old dog new tricks) I wish luck to those pursuing this challenge.

 

Jeffrey

 

Jeffrey

 

As John Keating noted: Open Mind: Open Heart. Once you get beyond all the urban legend of what it takes to develop the mind for trading, you come to understand that changing mind is really more about changing heart.

 

Rande

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jeffrey

 

As John Keating noted: Open Mind: Open Heart. Once you get beyond all the urban legend of what it takes to develop the mind for trading, you come to understand that changing mind is really more about changing heart.

 

Rande

 

Thanks.

 

This is the area where I mentioned how one must use willpower. This begs the question, "Where do I get the willpower?" "The discipline?"

What motivates us past the fear when you can't find anything more scary?

What pushes you out of a comfort zone when nobody is there prodding you with electric shocks? What makes us stop feeling like a victim, and blaming the circumstances?

 

I believe there is a balance where a certain level of fear/pain is pushing you toward your purpose, while a certain amount of pleasure/reward is pulling you toward your purpose.

 

I agree that from a spiritual sense the heart moves us to move past barriers and do what needs to be done, and more. Recall when we've heard about amazing accomplishments in sports? It is well known to coaches and athletes that a competition between two athletes equally fit, and skilled, the one with the biggest heart will win. It is the heart that carries an athlete through the agony of defeat to drive on. It is the heart that carries one to a another dimension to make it happen.

 

The same psychological factors limiting one from pulling the trigger can also be attributed a successful trader from seeing, and realizing possibilities, and potential, and then increasing their trade size.

 

Jeffrey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the following quote by Ed Seykota is extremely insightful:

 

Some traders like to lose. So they win by losing.

 

Anthony Robbins said that we are hard wired as humans to seek pleasure and avoid pain. So if you are doing something that is destructive, at some point it must have either brought you pleasure or relieved pain.

 

If someone overeats, it might because the consequences of overeating (the pain) are diminished by the emotional escape they get from doing it (the pleasure).

 

I used to smoke. I started doing it because my friends did it. The consequences of smoking were diminished by my need to fit in. Then it became a habit. Once something becomes a habit, and the pathways are forged, it becomes very difficult to change. (See The Power of Habit).

 

If I'm a trader and I'm constantly doing things that go against my plan or my better instincts, I have to go deep inside to find out what I am getting by being self-destructive. Am I secretly scared of being successful? Do I feel guilty about easy money? There is some positive thing I am getting and it is up to me to find it.

 

Trading in the Zone is a great book to read if you want to go deeper into the nature of self-destructive trading behaviors. But be warned, once you go down that road it may take you into some self-realizations you might not want to face.

 

But it's definitely worth it.

 

Good luck everyone!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO
Self destructive behavior in a particular domain, say trading, can be an initially positive behavior learned in another domain and time. This is called secondary gain. Avoidance of uncertainty (avoidance of threat) is a mandate for our brain's survival biases. Even attacking the "cause" of the uncertainty and threat is a deeply burned into DNA because of its success over countless generations. When the attach or avoid motivations of an emotion do create success (removal of threat) the behavior is considered a success to the prime directive of survival.

 

After many reps of avoiding or attacking perceived threats in one domain (saying believing a saber tooth tiger is behind the bush) and wiring that learning into a highly charged circuit in the brain, the trader takes that learning into trading where uncertainty has to be managed by higher order thinking. Without training, the brain is going to reactively perceive the uncertainty of outcomes found in trading as a threat to be avoided or attacked. Not being able to pull the trigger when all conditions are meet is a form of learned avoidance. Revenge trading, in particular, is a form of attack motivation the brain has learned where the brain is attempting to attack the perceived threat. And when in full impulse, it is highly self destructive.

 

After a trader has been burned a few times by emotional hijackings like these, a new condition arises where the amygdala (fear based reactive thinking) does not trust the thinking brain to manage the situation, and boom -- the learned self destructive circuits trigger and take over again...again... and again.

 

Some traders learn to desensitive themselves over time, other continue to engage in self destructive behaviors, other get out of trading, and other choose to retrain the brain for better performance. But the brain you bring to trading (and the mind that emerges from it) is rarely the brain/mind that can manage the uncertainty and probability for success trading.

 

Rande Howell

 

We as humans and animals as well are wired to either fight (and win) or flee.The FIGHT responses don't work in trading , as Mark Douglas pointed out in the disciplined Trader.These are stress responses of fight or flight.

 

What Is Stress?

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ePYet3Fbts]Why Zebras Don't Get Ulcers - YouTube[/ame]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO
We as humans and animals as well are wired to either fight (and win) or flee.The FIGHT responses don't work in trading , as Mark Douglas pointed out in the disciplined Trader.These are stress responses of fight or flight.

 

What Is Stress?

 

 

Traders engage in self destructive behavior , because we are wired to fight or flight responses.We take on a trade with mindset of FIGHT and profit , it is difficult to change that mindset to flight and accept loss.As a result of our mindset and non trading wired brain, we tend to fight the market with revenge trades , increased position sizes , no system/ method trades and all psychological baggage.Trading successfully requires a mindset of flowing with the price trends and swings , but the market deludes us and encourages us with our biases and fulfillment of cognitive expectations in adverse conditions.Our need to be right and our stress responses of FIGHT make us engage in self destructive behaviors.

 

 

This thread should be in the psychology forum.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/16729-trading-mindsets-80-success.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Traders engage in self destructive behavior , because we are wired to fight or flight responses.We take on a trade with mindset of FIGHT and profit , it is difficult to change that mindset to flight and accept loss.As a result of our mindset and non trading wired brain, we tend to fight the market with revenge trades , increased position sizes , no system/ method trades and all psychological baggage.Trading successfully requires a mindset of flowing with the price trends and swings , but the market deludes us and encourages us with our biases and fulfillment of cognitive expectations in adverse conditions.Our need to be right and our stress responses of FIGHT make us engage in self destructive behaviors.

 

 

This thread should be in the psychology forum.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/16729-trading-mindsets-80-success.html

 

Fight or flight are two of the 3 emotional motivations that are wired to trigger when an emotion erupts. The other is Approach. It is the Approach Motivation that is the desired one for effective traders mind. We still have to learn and retrain engrained biases that trigger to habituated emotional responses. Some people are born with a proclivity for traders mind. I worked with a few, but I find they are rare, other wise traders would learn the Left Brain rules of trading and step into success.

 

Rande Howell

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the problems human beings face is overcoming the natural impulse to move away from discomfort (pain) be it physical or emotional.....our physical systems are setup to respond automatically (as when a person touches a hot stove)....by withdrawing from that stimulus...

 

In the trading environment, it is especially true of new or struggling traders....that they will take a loss, and then spend a significant amount of time thinking about that loss, and while they are doing so, miss the next perfectly valid opportunity to obtain favorable entry.

 

One of the things that I try to teach students is how to manage, structure, and direct their attention 1.) prior to, 2.) during and 3.) right after.....each & every trade.....inevitably students balk at this type of training, insisting that it isn't needed....and what I do to show them just how important it is....is simply to model that kind of structured successful behavior

 

The reason I mention it at all is that I NEVER read posts where people talk about this, and yet it is a behavior that is natural to us but is self destructive in the trading environment....hopefully this is something that Rande provides his clients...if so all the more reason to take a closer look.

 

Best Regards

Steve

Edited by steve46

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
One of the problems human beings face is overcoming the natural impulse to move away from discomfort (pain) be it physical or emotional.....our physical systems are setup to respond automatically (as when a person touches a hot stove)....by withdrawing from that stimulus...

 

In the trading environment, it is especially true of new or struggling traders....that they will take a loss, and then spend a significant amount of time thinking about that loss, and while they are doing so, miss the next perfectly valid opportunity to obtain favorable entry.

 

One of the things that I try to teach students is how to manage, structure, and direct their attention 1.) prior to, 2.) during and 3.) right after.....each & every trade.....inevitably students balk at this type of training, insisting that it isn't needed....and what I do to show them just how important it is....is simply to model that kind of structured successful behavior

 

The reason I mention it at all is that I NEVER read posts where people talk about this, and yet it is a behavior that is natural to us but is self destructive in the trading environment....hopefully this is something that Rande provides his clients...if so all the more reason to take a closer look.

 

Best Regards

Steve

 

It's true an untrained brain/mind is going to avoid situations that have caused pain in the past, particularly significant pain. That biological bias has to be deconstructed and rebuilt into higher functioning to move from struggling to profit. I also brain traders to be aware of their attention at moments in the trading process. I actually define 8 different moments that the mindset has to be reset during the trading cycle. Once they see that emotional hijacking are associated with these moments, traders become more willing to micro manage the mindset they bring into any given moment in trading.

 

But not only is it a natural reaction to avoid pain, it is also the meaning of that act that gets encoded into the pattern avoidance that is the most important to address for long term improvement. A trader's sense of adequacy, mattering, worth, and power get integrated into the emotional pattern generation also. This is their inner game or the inner struggle that has to be mastered whether its trading, golf, chess, or tennis to move from adequate performance to peak performance.

 

Rande Howell

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 12th December 2019. Lagarde prepares ECB debut – 12th December 2019.   Policy unchanged Projections unlikely to change much Clues about review sought Style in focus Presiding over her first presser of the European Central Bank today, Lagarde is expected to confirm once again the current policy setting, giving time to ECB to focus on the planned review of its overall policy framework.Final Eurozone GDP and PMI readings broadly supported this neutral picture, while the confidence that a deep recession can be avoided is strengthening (Figure 1) despite the fact that German manufacturing and production numbers still look weak. The exports and the overall trade are actually holding up much better than expected, which together with still strong labour markets is underpinning hopes the net exports and consumption will continue to support growth not just in Germany.Figure 1 : December German ZEW investor confidence outcome, end the year firmly in positive territory at the highest level since February 2018.As there is nothing in the data really to challenge the ECB’s overall policy stance, the focus firstly turns into the tone and presentation style that President Lagarde will have. The “risk” is that the presser will be equally uneventful as her testimony before the European Parliament. Lagarde’s team building exercise seems to have worked and at least in public there has been a pretty consistent message since she took over, which is very likely to be confirmed today. Additionally it will be interesting to see whether she will back fully Draghi’s package.Citi Bank: All key interest rates will likely be left unchanged, and the forward guidance reaffirmed. The main interest at this meeting will be the new Eurosystem staff projections, extended to 2022, to gauge whether the September package will be sufficient to bring inflation back into line with the ECB’s target over the forecast horizon. If not, investors’ attention will quickly turn to the ECB’s toolbox and what instruments the Governing Council would be willing to use and when, in order to defend its credibility in the absence of large fiscal support. The upcoming strategic review of monetary policy will also likely be the focus of many questions.Hence as reported by Citi, other than Lagarde’s style, ECB projections could also monopolize the attention. Even though, the ECB remains ready to act again and tweak all its measures if necessary, it has already done a lot and now needs to keep an eye on the side effects of the very expansionary monetary policy, while politicians need to do their bit to support the economy.The central bank won’t be reducing the degree of stimulus any time soon with many analysts supporting that this will continue until mid-2020 unless there is a major change in circumstance.Central bankers will be conducting a comprehensive review of the policy framework, however, with a special focus on the inflation target. A more symmetric definition, which stresses that the ECB can see through lengthy inflation overshoots as well as periods of too low headline rates is likely to come in the first quarter of next year. The inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs into the HICP number also remains a challenge especially as house prices are rising rapidly in some centres, also thanks to the low interest rate environment.Bund yields have nudged higher over the past week, but the German 10-year so far failed to move lastingly above -0.3%. Uncertainty on trade and Brexit are keeping a lid on yields, although there is the risk that if things go the way markets want and a phase one trade deal is confirmed and in the UK PM Johnson gets his majority, there could be a sharp rise in yields, if markets price out further easing and start to look ahead to central banks removing some of the stimulus.However this is far away for now, while central bankers are not looking eager to add further easing.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Remains Biased To The Downside   USDJPY faces further price weakness despite its price hesitation on Tuesday. On the upside, resistance comes in at 109.00 level. Above this level will turn attention to the 109.50 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 110.00 level on a break of that area, A cut through here will open the door for more gain towards the 110.50. On the downside, support lies at the 108.00 level where a break will target the 107.50 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 107.00 level and then lower towards the 106.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further downside threats.        
    • Sterling Advances Barely Hours To UK Elections As Latest Poll Predicts Conservatives Win In just two days from now, a major event that will set the trend for the currency market for the year 2020, the UK elections will be held. In the face of a Brexit extension, UK prime minister had pushed for an earlier election in the hopes of having a majority conservatives win in the parliament which will make the Brexit deal pass through easily. As the clock ticks, with barely less than 48 hours to this epochal event, the newest poll by Survation conducted for ITV’s good morning Britain show predicts a Boris Johnson win by 14 pts. ahead of Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour party. The Brexit deal seemed to give the conservatives an edge as it accounted for 32% of the vote decision while NHS gave Labour party a slight edge. On the overall, a majority vote of 42% was predicted for the conservatives while Labour had 28%. Market Reaction as the Clock Ticks Optimism looms in the market as the prediction of a conservatives win will ease Britain’s exit from Europe by January 31 deadline. The EUR/GBP pair continued to fall till the early hours of today breaking the 0.8411 trend line targeting the 0.8149 resistance level. GBP/USD pair rebounded to consolidate briefly targeting 1.3381 resistance levels. Technical analysis within a 4-hour MACD shows that both pairs may likely touch down. CAD edged slightly higher advanced by USMCA news but yet to consolidate gains. The USD against a basket of five major currencies held steady awaiting FOMC’s minutes due out tomorrow. Against a basket of currencies, NZD’s dominance is the highest. Sterling also gained momentum firmed up by approaching UK elections. The safe-haven, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc remain pressured as major events that will shape the market for 2020 are been anticipated. On the Asia side, significant market activity wasn’t recorded as most currency pairs held steady within a day’s range. In the Asian stock market, not so much activity was recorded being weakened by recently released Chinese PMI numbers. Most of the indexes closed a little lower while US stocks rose swiftly after Friday’s release of US non-farm payroll reports. The outcome of the December 15 deadline set by the US for the signing of a preliminary trade pact will determine the week’s direction and even further into the year 2020. Also due out later in the week is UK GDP figures and ZEW released out of Germany.
    • Date : 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview – 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview No policy changes or surprises are expected with today’s announcement (19:00 GMT) and Chair Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. It will be interesting to see if, as expected, the voting is unanimous this time round. The FOMC members have expressed significant differences of opinion during 2019 as three rate cuts were implemented.  The apparent paradox of low unemployment and low inflation, the new “norm”. The two-digit unemployment rate (U-3) in November edged down to 3.53% from 3.56% in October, and a 3.52% cycle-low in September, all below the 3.58% prior cycle-low in April and a 4.00% rate at the beginning of the year. Current readings remain much lower than the 4.2% long-run unemployment rate projection noted in the September SEP, it is expected that this estimate will be trimmed today. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October while the core index rose by 0.2%, for respective y/y gains of 1.8% and 2.3%, versus September figures of 1.7% and 2.4%. Today the November headline is expected to fall again to 0.2% and the core remains flat at 0.2% too. The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, the PCE chain price measure, rose 1.3% y/y in October and expectations are for an uptick to 1.4% in November. The core PCE chain price measure rose 1.6% y/y in November, versus 1.7% in September, and expectations are for the pace to hold at 1.6% in November. The FOMC’s latest median estimates for 2019 inflation are 1.5% for the headline and 1.8% for the core. Hence, the focus will be on the Fed’s new quarterly forecasts, with expectations raised and likely to be mostly bullish results with a bump up in the median growth projection and a drop in the median dot to reflect a steady stance through 2020. However, the individual dots are likely to show both, forecasts for cuts and hikes. Chair Powell is expected to reiterate the US economy and policy are in a “good place,” (a phrase he has used a number of times lately) and could sound a little more upbeat after the strong jobs report. But, he will continue to warn of downside risks. The FOMC isn’t likely to announce any new measures on reserve management operations (QE?) or a repo facility. All steady into 2020 and beyond. USDIndex remains biased to the down side but has support around 97.40 and the 200-day moving average. A breach of this key support zone brings in 97.00 and the October low of 96.85. A break over 97.80 (the confluence of the 20 and 50-day moving averages) and 98.00 would be required before a re-test of the recent high at 98.50 could be considered. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Holds At The Bottom, Is The Consolidation Ongoing?   Key Resistance Levels: $275, $300, $325 Key Support Levels: $200, $160, $120 BCH/USD Price Long-term Trend: Ranging Bitcoin Cash had been trading in the large price range between the levels of $200 and $240. Presently, the coin is now fluctuating at the bottom of the chart. In retrospect, the bulls break the $240 resistance line and reached a high of $310. The coin was resisted as BSH drops back to a range-bound zone. The bears tested the low at $200 but there was a pulled back. The pullback was a correction as the upward move was stopped at $227. BCH is trading between the low at $200 and $227. The bulls are now having difficulty to move upward because of the resistance at $227. Conversely, the bears have failed to break the low of $200. Daily Chart Indicators Reading: The Fibonacci tool indicates that the coin reverses at the 1.272 extension level. BCH will resume the downtrend if the downtrend line or the support line is broken below. The RSI period 14 level 35 is indicating that the price is falling. BCH/USD Medium-term bias: Ranging On the 4-hour chart, the coin is fluctuating between the levels of $200 and $220. The bulls tested and broke the $220 price level but fell back to the range-bound zone. The price is trading below the $227 resistance level; a break is being expected shortly. 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading The market is trading above the 20% range of the daily stochastic. This signifies that BCH is in a bullish momentum. The blue and red lines are trending horizontally indicating that price is fluctuating. General Outlook for Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Bitcoin Cash is still confined within the price range of $200 and $240. Presently, BCH is in a tight range; a break above $227 will move price to the high of $240. Nevertheless, a break below $200 may weaken the coin to a low of $160. Bitcoin Cash Trade Signal Instrument: BCHUSD Order: buy Entry price: $203 Stop: $175 Target: $241 Source: https://learn2.trade 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.