MichelGJulien

$CL_F Here are today's signals. Valid for overnight/tomorrow: SELL 94.16, stop 94.82, t/p open; BUY 92.84, stop 92.18, t/p open. $YM_F Here are today's signals. Valid for overnight/tomorrow: SELL 16101, stop 16137, t/p open; BUY 16029, stop 15993, t/p open. Happy and safe trading to all!

$CL_F Here are today's signals. Valid for overnight/tomorrow: SELL 94.80, stop 95.42, t/p open; BUY 93.56, stop 92.94, t/p open. $YM_F Here are today's signals. Valid for overnight/tomorrow: SELL 16097, stop 16138, t/p open; BUY 16015, stop 15974, t/p open. Happy and safe trading to all!

$CL_F Here are today's signals. Valid for overnight/tomorrow: SELL 94.78, stop 95.41, t/p open; BUY 93.52, stop 92.89, t/p open. $YM_F Here are today's signals. Valid for overnight/tomorrow: SELL 16082, stop 16132, t/p open; BUY 15982, stop 15932, t/p open.

I took a little break following the end of my trading room experiment and would like to bring a new contribution to the WTI crude oil and e-mini Dow Jones traders communities. This is something that will not distract me from my day to day trading but something that I think may be of interest to some of you who may not have the time to analyze the market from all possible angles like I do every day. In parallel to my short term/scalping trading, I've been calculating for quite a bit of time now the daily potential inflection points of both CL_F and YM_F (as well as extremes extensions) using mainly a customized version of Fibonacci extensions and projections numbers that I have developed over time (got to give credit also to some other knowledgeable traders on the net, thanks to all of them). So, I intend to publish here on a daily basis those numbers that represent potential buy/sell signals. As usual, be cautious with these signals as they are no holy grail. Nevertheless, I think you will like them as much as I do. Demo testing them for a while would be my best advice. - Valid for overnight/tomorrow on WTI: SELL 95.89, stop 96.29, t/p open; BUY 94.59, stop 94.19, t/p open. Extremes: high 96.94 - low 93.54 - Valid for overnight/tomorrow on YM: SELL 16028, stop 16061, t/p open; BUY 15922, stop 15889, t/p open. Extremes: high 16115 - low 15835 Happy and safe trading to all! :-0

Today we switched to the January contract just to witness the resumption of the now 9-week old downtrend. Lately, crude oil has just been unable to catch a bid that lasted longer than a few hours. According to my go-to guy energy consultant Anthony Rosado, WTI has had its largest open interest rolling from December to January and mostly February last Friday. Money managers reduced their net-long positions by 4.3% overall. So, in my opinion that explains in itself why rallies have been limited to a strict minimum and that every time crude oil catches a bid it is immediately clobbered towards lower and lower price levels. More downside is likely in the cards until we reach 91.54 according to Anthony. I've got to agree with him on that. Is that what we can call the "Niagara Falls" syndrome on crude? :-0 Technically speaking, the market opened at 94.10, i.e. below and outside Friday's range and value area. The only gap left unfilled was the one from Friday standing at 94.45. It got filled within the first 30 minutes of the pit session. The initial balance at 60 ticks was pretty much in line/equals with its 10-day moving average indicating that volatility is picking up a little bit compared to last week. As far as YM is concerned, it was a rather dull day as most of the action (i.e. a new all-time high) had been done overnight mostly during the Asian session. YM opened at 15972 well above and outside of Friday's range. Below we still had 2 unfilled gaps sitting at 15839 and 15914 respectively that, needless to say, never came close of being challenged. The big 16000 round number is only a stone throw away and that shouldn't constitute a problem for the market to reach it overnight or tomorrow imo. I took 3 trades today: 1. Long CL 94.53 at 9:16am, exit 94.43 at 9:51am for a -10 ticks loss. 2. Long CL 94.72 at 10:57am, exit 94.88 at 11:05am for a +16 ticks profit. 3. Long YM at 15985 at 11:03am, exit 15985 at 2:28pm for a breakeven trade. Results: +6 ticks profit today

Maybe you didn't know but I do not make any money out of this trading room dude. You are showing that you're a real loser to write a comment like that. A winner wouldn't bother. Too bad for u. Me I couldn't care less about what u think. Take care anyway.

The big story for today, besides Janet Yellen confirmation as Fed's big boss, was crude rapid and violent move upward right after registering a new 4-month low. Talk about a price rejection! Bears were completely caught off guard on that move amplifying the velocity of the price spike when they started to cover en masse. Other than that, there is not much to report maybe except that the other instrument we trade in the room (emini Dow Jones YM) recorded yet again another all-time high today. Test of resistances at 94.50 and 95.38 should come soon IMO The market in crude oil opened at 93.35, i.e. within yesterday's range but well outside of the value area. The only gap left unfilled in the neighbourhood was standing at 93.91 and got filled just before lunchtime. The initial balance came in at a minuscule 36 ticks or a big 35% below its 10-day average. As far as YM is concerned, there is no stopping of this bullish train as again today it established a new all-time high. After opening at 15783, it came down a bit towards 15755 for a few minutes then turned back up to never look back. For tomorrow, to be honest with you I'm completely clueless as to the likely direction in crude oil. It may continue its climb towards 95 or may as well be slammed down again towards new lows as it's been the case so many times lately. The emini Dow Jones situation is different. It will very likely again tomorrow hit a new high. Is 16000 possible for tomorrow? Why not? I only took 1 trade today: 1. Long YM 15810 at 10:44am, exit 15810 at 10:51am for a breakeven trade. Result: 0 tick today.

And they call you a market wizard in here? Makes me laugh if it wasn't so sad

Although I like very much the job of hosting a live trading room, I have to admit that it has changed my work methodology a bit. Maybe because of the fact that I feel a broad sense of responsibility towards the participants, it seems like I've become extra cautious because of this. I'm looking more than usual for the perfect set up, one which wouldn't be too risky or wouldn't go too much against my position before getting in the right direction. Knowing that people are following your trades to the tick causes a different feeling than when I only had myself to bother with. When I made mistakes in the past in terms of bad execution or anything else, nobody but me would know about it. Now, each and every facet of my trading is under the spotlight. It adds another dimension to trading and I guess it will take a little getting used to on my part before I feel completely at ease with this new aspect of my work. Crude hasn't been able to hold above its 55-EMA for more than a month That being said, the market opened at 93.33, i.e. within yesterday's range but outside of the value area. The closest gap left unfilled was sitting below at 93.12 and was never challenged really. Lately, every time you think that crude is down for the count, it comes roaring back up and slaps you in the face. we had a perfect example of that today. Nevertheless, the overall trend is definitely down and in my opinion crude will not escape its fate, which is to visit the $91 level sooner or later. Tomorrow the DOE inventories data will very likely show another increase of supplies. That could (please stress the verb could) knock crude down for the count this time - unless it has transformed into Rocky Balboa :-0 I took 1 trade today: 1. Short YM 15635 at 10:24am, exit 15651 at 10:28am for a -16 ticks loss. Result: -16 ticks today

I had my worst day in 2013 today exactly at a period in time (second week of my trading room) when I can least afford it. But the market doesn't care about my project, and you know what? I will still trade with the same methodology tomorrow because it has proven me over a few years that I could have confidence in it. One day doesn't make a week, and one week doesn't make a month. A trader's worst enemy is its own psyche. Trading systems are almost irrelevant because they are ALL vulnerable to the "perfect storm" that the market has in store for them sporadically. There is no way you can avoid that from time to time. Trying to outsmart the market is a fool's game and I have decided a long time ago to stop playing it. The market has decided that crude is still too expensive. Going for 91 now Technically speaking, we broke a few important supports today. First the $94 level, then a few hours later, $93. I was really expecting a rally to $96/97 before a resumption of the downtrend but the market has decided otherwise. Now, the door is wide opened for a test of the $91 level as I have forecasted numerous times in past articles as being the ultimate destination of this now 2-month old downside move. I took 6 trades today: 1. Short CL 94.47 at 9:31am, exit 95.13 at 10:19am for a -66 ticks loss. 2. Long CL 95.13 at 10:19am, exit 94.56 at 11:06am for a -57 ticks profit. 3. Short CL 94.56 at 11:06am, exit 94.36 at 11:57am for a +20 ticks profit. 4. Long YM 15722 at 9:36am, exit 15737 at 9:48am for a +15 ticks profit. 5. Short YM 15702 at 10:59am, exit 15679 at 11:49am for +23 ticks profit. 6. Long YM 15685 at 2:45pm, exit 15692 at 2:50pm for a +7 ticks profit. Result: -58 ticks today

As it is often the case after two consecutive days of definite trend direction, today was very choppy and directionless. Needless to say that the downtrend that's been prevailing for the last 2 months is far from over. In my book the ultimate destination is still the $91 level. Bulls have had absolutely no resilience lately and it shows clearly that they have thrown in the towel in my opinion. On our 4th day in the trading room, we were presented with only one valid opportunity to enter long. It came just before lunch and turned out to be only a small winner. It would have been a more profitable trade if I wouldn't have screwed up my entry. Instead of getting in long at 94.23 as my signal dictated, I entered a bit late at 94.25, a small 2 ticks difference. Nothing to be concerned about, right? Well, not so fast. In fact it made a big difference in the trade management later on. Here's why. When I'm up in profit by a certain number of ticks, I first move my stop loss to break-even. A little more profit and I move my stop loss into profit territory. And that's exactly when that 2 ticks difference is important. This can be the difference between being stopped out of your trade prematurely or reaching your profit target. Well, you guessed right. In our case today, those little 2 ticks transformed a +19 ticks "sure" profit into a +4 ticks gain only. In reality we are talking about a +15 ticks difference. Not so insignificant after all. Two things are crucial when you are day trading: 1) your entry timing and 2) your trade management afterwards. Mistakes on one or the other are not forgiven by the market. I still haven't changed my mind: $96 is in the cards Talking about the market, it opened at 94.26, i.e. within yesterday's range but outside of the value area. The 2 unfilled gaps in the vicinity (one above and one below) were never seriously challenged. The Initial balance at 49 ticks was a good 20% below its 10-day average that, incidentally, was down for a 12th consecutive day. Volume as well as volatility is slowly vanishing it seems. Tomorrow, it is NFP day and a Friday. This could be another day full of challenge. We'll find out soon enough. We took 1 trade today: 1. Long 94.25 at 11:36am, exit 94.29 at 12:03pm for a +4 ticks profit. Result: +4 ticks today

The crude oil market was really unidirectional today, providing very little opportunities to enter short if you weren't already before the open of the pit. In the trading room, we missed one of the only interesting set ups to go short during the session by 2 miserable ticks. I needed those 2 ticks to get what I call my 2nd confirmation criteria but, unfortunately, I didn't get them. The rules are the rules and as a trader you live and die by them. Too bad because it would have been a very profitable trade because the market tanked right after that. Needless to say that we weren't given a second chance to enter short in a safe way for the rest of the pit session otherwise i would have jumped on it. Therefore, no trade to report today. The market opened at 94.17, i.e. barely within yesterday's range but outside of the value area. The closest gap still unfilled (FYI, we are now up to 6 gaps unfilled to the upside) was standing above at 94.69 and was not approached at all today. The initial balance 10-day average was lower for a 10th consecutive day today reflecting a steadily diminishing volatility as well as volume for that period. Even if I think that the downtrend is probably not over yet, for tomorrow I expect a bounce up towards 95 and possibly as high as 96. The DOE numbers (at 10:30 am) are expected to be a bit more positive for crude than they were lately, so that could help. Nevertheless, bulls have a couple of big obstacles to overcome if they wish to accomplish a rally before the end of the week (see chart).

Today was the official launch of my crude oil trading room. It was really great to see that many people interested to "watch" me trade live and hear my comments. The market was not very cooperative though today for my first day in the room as it was mainly choppy and going sideways all day long. To add a little bit of suspense to my inauguration, my first trade in front of everybody present in the room was a losing trade (gulp..) . Thank God, I was able to come back from behind and score a couple of goals later in the game :-0 Looks like we are going to get a 5th consecutive red daily bar today Technically today, like I said, market was choppy and trendless. It opened at 94.44, i.e. below and outside Friday's range and value area. The initial balance registered at 60 ticks, or a good 15% below its 10-day average. Often, when the IB average is in that range, volatility increases later on in the session. But it was obviously not the case today. All in all a quiet Monday that gave bears and bulls a rest from the frantic activity of last week. For tomorrow, my feeling is we get a little bit more of the same consolidation but with a slight bullish bias. But don't get me wrong here, the bears are still in total control and are probably just hiding around the corner ready to give bulls another blow, this time possibly down to 92. Wait and see as usual. We took 3 trades today: 1. Long 94.84 at 10:32am, exit 94.75 at 10:52am for a -9 ticks loss. 2. Short 94.66 at 11:18am, exit 94.45 at 11:34am for a +21 ticks profit. 3. Long 94.68 at 1:01pm, exit 94.77 at 1:06pm for a +9 ticks profit. Result: +21 ticks today

You are showing your lack of trading skills by what you are saying. Trading is not theoretical, it is practical. If you are "taking a long term position' and not trading than your point could be considered relevant. But if you are trading and you don't know what a support is then good luck to you.

I'm a short-term trader often holding positions for less than 30 minutes. So, although I look at the big picture, I base my decisions on short timeframes. 96 was (and still is) important because of the number of times price stopped on it from below as well as from above. In my trading room you essentially get to copy my trades, so you get the same results than me if you follow correctly. Results are here

I didn't have time to tweet or trade today because I was sooooo busy with all the settings one has to take care of in order to setup a decent trading room. There are many bells and whistles to get acquainted with it and I must admit it will take some getting used to on my part before I feel 100% comfortable using all the options offered by my software provider Cisco/WebEx. Today, I had to make some decisions about what charts to share with my attendees (can't use all 8 monitors for sure). Also had to make sure my charts were in a format that looks good in a webinar environment, that the sound was good, video, etc... There is a chat area, a poll function, a whiteboard and lots of other things too long (and too boring) to mention here. Needless to say I am very excited at the idea of ​​having to host my first trading room session ever on Monday and I'm also a little bit nervous about it. I guess it's natural to feel that way as roughly 100 participants will log in Monday morning. I'm a perfectionist and I want everything to be... well, perfect. I just hope that the crude oil market will give us some nice and clean signals like it did today. That would help to start that new venture on the right foot. But the market is the market and we'll have to cope with whatever it throws at us Monday at the sound of the bell. Bulls have started to run for the exit as the important $96 level was broken Talking about the market, let's say it broke today a very important level that now opens the door to significantly lower price levels in the days/weeks to come. See you all on Monday guys. Have a nice weekend!

My pleasure dude :-)

Yesterday on StockTwits I mentioned that: "Remember tomorrow we have the DOE inventories at 10:30 and the Fed at 2:00. Could be rocky or dull but not "normal" conditions for sure". Well, we had pretty much a state of paralysis all session long except for the time periods surrounding these 2 events where the market got more active, jumping up and down like the psycho it has become thanks to algos trading and stuff. The general downtrend on crude has resumed for the time being and a retest of last week low at 95.95 seems to be in the cards. Of course, that test cannot be taken for granted because of all I just mentioned concerning algos and stuff. Under normal conditions we should retest last week's low is what I just have written really. Although very oversold on the 4hr chart, a retest of 95.95 is a given Technically now, the market opened at 97.33, i.e. way below and outside yesterday's range and value area. The gap from yesterday's close was standing above at 98.25 and was never challenged. One thing worth of mention is the fact that Initial balance came in at a microscopic 28 ticks (smallest ever in my stats going back a year). Thus I concluded that volatility would be back for sure later during the session but, again today, it didn't because of all that garbage surrounding the Fed's decision. For tomorrow I expect a continuation of the downtrend and a probable retest of last week's low as i said earlier. Resistance above is in the 97.10/30 area, so that could be a nice spot to sell should we get there overnight. I took 3 trades today: 1. Long 97.40 at 9:51am, exit 97.15 at 10:19am for a -25 ticks loss. 2. Short 97.15 at 10:19am, exit 97.20 at 10:30am for a -5 ticks loss. 3. Long 97.20 at 10:30am, exit 97.40 at 10:34am for a +20 ticks profit. Result: -10 ticks today.

Already hit 98 overnight, so like you said who knows?

The selling pressure was on again early today as bears had regained a bit of their mojo of the last few days. But when the market opened at 97.38, above and outside yesterday's range and value area, crude immediately started to sell off trying to break the $97 floor below. It prompted to tweet: "Hey, this is an important area here. If bulls do not react now, they are bound to suffer a retest of yesterday's low around 96.00". It is as if they had heard me really because the market started stabilizing immediately first, then was on its way up for the rest of the day closing a few ticks short of $98. Guess what? I think we could go back up and retest $100 next week Other than that it was a relatively quiet day and there is not much more to comment. The initial balance came in at 74 ticks again today, i.e. more or less equal to its 10-day average. As I mentioned yesterday, according to my stats, when the initial balance is equal to its average I can't read too much into it as pretty much anything can happen in terms of volatility later during the session. For next week, I believe bulls are going to continue to regain some lost ground but we are not talking about changing the main trend here which remain obviously down until bulls can break and hold above 102.50. That's assuming they can even get pass 100 first. I took 3 trades today: 1. Short 97.21 at 9:11am, exit 97.08 at 9:18am for a +13 ticks profit. 2. Long 97.80 at 10:00am, exit 97.80 at 10:06am for a breakeven trade. 3. Long 97.48 at 10:25am, exit 97.48 at 10:33am for a breakeven trade. Results: +13 ticks today, +107 ticks this week.

December IS the current futures contract dude :-0

The highlight of the day was that bulls were completely massacred today. Normally, when there's a bloodbath like that it starts with London and then it goes on with New York, but often times to a lesser degree. Today was different in the sense that the massacre didn't start with London but with New York instead. Other than that, it was bears heaven all day long. Every time bulls tried to raise their head a little bit they were knocked out of the park all together. Price eventually went as low as 98.05 after the close of the pit, representing a $4 drop in 2 days. Today, the bears were in heaven. Will it be the bulls turn tomorrow? The market opened at 99.68, i.e. within yesterday's range, but outside of the value area. We still had the same unfilled gap at 101.12 that we had yesterday but this level now looks in the stratosphere compared to where the price is at the moment. Initial balance was 65 ticks or 19% below its 10-day average. According to my stats the volatility was set to increase sometimes during the remainder of the session. And boy did it increase! My fear of a bull trap above 100 was founded finally but I really wasn't expecting that MUCH of a rejection after price briefly broke above it. From that moment on, price never stopped falling. To a point where I tweeted: "Next step below is 97.85 (don't think we get there today though)". We came within 20 ticks of that level. When crude oil is in liquidation mode, it really means business. I took 3 trades today: 1. Long 100.00 at 9:55am, exit 100.00 at 9:58am for a breakeven trade. 1. Short 100.00 at 10:25am, exit 99.85 at 10:43am for a +15 ticks profit. 1. Long 98.96 at 11:47am, exit 99.21 at 12:01pm for a +25 ticks profit. Result: +40 ticks today

When I started trading today, I was still using the November contract. This morning, I was so concentrated on my charts that someone on StockTwits had to remind me that December had already more volume than November and maybe, just maybe, it would be in my interest to switch now. Too bad I was already in a trade when that reminder came but anyway it wouldn't have changed the outcome of what was to become my first losing day in a while. We had what I consider broken markets again today. Stocks were up pre-open as well as bonds. This shouldn't be like that. I know some traders may not agree with me here but normally bonds & stocks move in opposite directions. When they don't, markets are not correlated and when they're like that I find that price behavior is often jiggery and trading more uncertain. Momentum may be in the basement but the direction is crystal clear Technically speaking, the market opened at 101.49, i.e. outside and above yesterday's range and value area. The 2 unfilled gaps in the area were above at 102.29 and below at 100.63. Only the one at 100.63 got filled around lunchtime. Initial balance at 102 ticks was pretty wide today registering at 31% above its 10-day average. The 1st hour of the pit was very volatile so, FWIW according to my stats, the rest of the session was expected to be quieter, and indeed it was. Going back to my trade, I set a fixed stoploss at some point in the trade which I don't do very often. Problem with fixed stops is that sometimes they take you out of a trade (by 1 or 2 ticks) that finally goes your way afterward. Other times they save you from monster losses. This morning I wasn't able to make up my mind as to what price was going to do next. Uncertainty about your own decisions is also a part of trading. A trader has to learn how to live with that. I took 1 trade today: 1. Short 100.89 at 9:53am, exit 101.09 at 10:39am for a -20 ticks loss. Results: -20 ticks today, +66 ticks this week. Have a good weekend!

Really hard to crack 101. Again today it tried but didn't make it.

After 5 bounces of the $101 support level since mid-July, we can confirm without a doubt that it represents THE support level to break for bears if they want to have any chance to see eventually a sub $100 crude oil price. In fact, it seems as if every time WTI's price approaches this level, something like an invisible hand stops it from breaking lower. Today it was the news that Congressional leaders were willing to accept a short-term increase in the country’s $16.7 trillion debt ceiling - therefore taking a step toward averting a default - that did the trick. Whatever the reason may be, it seems to me that some people definitely do not want to see price drop below this 3 digits number. Can this solid-as-a-rock support propels crude to new highs now? I would normally say yes, but nothing has been rally "normal" lately. Meet the "invisible hand" sitting at the $101 price level Technically speaking, the bigger picture hasn't changed that much. Resistance lies above at the 20-dma (103.87) and below the support is still at the magical 101.05 floor. Should we finally break this support, 98.70 would immediately come into play in my opinion. Higher up, we would meet resistance around the 105.50/106 area. In the meantime, volatility is simply incredible on the oil market. It takes courage just to trade this monster. The joy of living dangerously (title of a book by India philosophe Osho) applies perfectly to the actual market conditions. Tomorrow, Friday, I would tend to believe that anything can happen really. Frankly, I'm not even going to try to guess which way this thing will go. I took 1 new trade and completed 2 previous trades today: 1. Long 102.93 at 9:06am on Wednesday, exit 102.18 at 2:59am Thursday for a -75 ticks loss. 2. Long 101.44 at 10:33am on Wednesday, exit 102.18 at 2:59am Thursday for a +74 ticks profit. 3. Short 102.18 at 2:59am, exit 101.38 at 9:13am for a +80 ticks profit. Result: +79 ticks today