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Northern boy
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Posts posted by Northern boy
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...and this is a daily chart. me=idiot lol.
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i was saying in a thread i started that the size of fractal waves (or minute bars) relative to the legs up or down directly relate to how frequently a trader's risk gets taken out before he gets reward. that's probably not what you're pointing out though eh Atto? what should i be interpreting?
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apply to a prop shop in Canada, no credentials required. Trade remote.
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Yes, that's it. All else aside, I think if one traded blind they would be significantly more ahead in the latter market than the former.
the distances for price to travel aren't paired with their corresponding frequency as efficiently. The trader's r/r wouldn't break him even in the latter market, as it instinctively should. If one picks the appropriate r/r I think there's an advantage in these distance/frequency inefficiencies.
I wouldn't assume that the correlation is perfect between liquidity and elaboracy(not a word?), but at a certain point there's enough room for funds to run programs. Not only does the r/r break even, but the odds are worse because they watch the books and open orders.
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Actually, I'm going to make a list of markets in order of difficulty to trade. It will allow new and experienced traders to find just enough liquidity without being in a more elaborate market than necessary. If you weren't already familiar with this concept it will make you that much more money and it will save new traders boat loads.
if any of all this doesn't make sense let me know.
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eg, markets differ in degree of difficulty.
lol can i get a witness?
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wait until at LEAST 40,000 contracts trade on ES at a single price before you can expect a potential breakout. -Dogpilei've been looking to find a way to estimate trading range durations as well, only in the equities market. At first i was considering it based on time, from 30 to 60 minutes. On this premise, my wild idea was that there was an average lapse of time before an economic event took place to shift the market.
on the premise of volume... i was considering that the dominant trader of the equity (or future), would contain the market with the ol' bid/offer fake for a set amount of volume required to establish his position, before he flips his bid/ask and sends everyone screaming.
But on the futures, 40,000 contracts controlled with bid/ask pressure to establish a position would assume one hell of a boat load... too much for day trading for anyone. So maybe it's to set up a longer term position?
Anyway point is I like to know why, and I don't make a move until there's theory behind the practice... otherwise it's just data mining imo.
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sweet, i'll get this one. thanks James.
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i was actually thinking of doing that(bid/ask, volume) just to see how it could actually perform. Did you run it? if so, what's the accuracy of the signals you get?
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Hey all, havn't been here in a bit, thought i'd contribute.
In a straight-forward trade, your probability of winning is dependent on the risk/reward ratio(i'll call bet ratio) available to you. The bet ratio available is dependent on the number of participents in your market(who use up these ratios). The more participents, the more betting ratios, the more evenly price is distributed.
What i mean by price distribution can be easily seen by comparing QQQQ and EBAY. Because the Q's market is more elaborate, the probable outcomes of a bet are more accuratly realized by price in the given time-frame. For example: one plays a bet with a reward of 3 points and a risk of 1 point. In an elaborate market, he loses 3 times more than he wins and breaks even. Distances for price to travel are matched with a probable frequency (i.e.: price can move 4 points once, 2 points twice, 1 point four times)
In EBAY, it's not the case. The lack of participents creates a lack of bet ratios... and the distribution of price does not reflect an elaborate market. The reason the Q's price distribution appears more volatile in the short-term is because it is realising the probabilities of every bet more accuratly. Also, in EBAY, the ratio of day traders to long-term traders is less, pushing price trends.
So...the odds of a traders success is much more likely in an unelaborate market, where the chances of his bet ratio being matched by an opposing bet with the same ratio at any given point in time are less likely.
If liquidity is not an issue, there's no reason imo to be playing in a more elaborate market than the trader needs to. to find the bet ratios that aren't being used just make a judgement call with the chart or run enough data in excel and find distance/frequency pairs that are inefficient.
ps: I put the post in this section because although it's not MP, it's alot about observing the distribution of price and can be analyzed with MP.
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trust me, that's already too much.You've gotta be kidding, right? Like the broker has access to your screens, indicators, strategies and its triggers?All they see is where you get in, at how much, and when you get out. Period.
Your P&L tells the rest of the story.
P.S. If your strategy is really all that and the bees knees, why is it that you're not trading it on your own account with your own money (borrowed or otherwise, if need be) first again? This prop shop crutch of yours is a convenient escape hatch, it seems....
what? i answered this... what the hell's your problem anyway??
P.P.S. And when you get there - the prop shop - one word should suffice. Obfuscate.
that's been suggested.
anyway i've reached a decision, as i said.
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How do I know a broker wouldn't do the same thing? If they see my account growing roses how can I be so sure that every Chuck Larry and Moe isn't going to get a little bit curious when I call with a problem???
Darth: I said about 5 times, what I was originally looking for was legalities that could protect me at a prop shop. I assumed there weren't, but I was still hoping and had to ask.
OAC: delete it if you want
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interesting, thanks Jperl.
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alot of you guys keep telling me not to go prop... Unless you want to send me cash, a lawyer and a contract (that's an open invitation) to incorporate me.inc, I'm starting with this firm. the numbers are real. Other than that, I have to take my chances and put trust in this manager.
thanks for the opinions, lol the very few of them did help.
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Art Krantz: If you join these chat sites for that reason then you're certainly in for a long, hard, painful slog.You stroll into joints like this to shoot the breeze & poke s*** sticks at the vultures (vendors) son, not improve your trading.
You can do that all on your lonesome with a price action for dummies manual, a couple straight talking daily sheets to keep you abreast, a decent squawk facility & a good dollop of common sense.
A reasonable grasp of psychology wouldn’t go amiss neither, beings that’s what pitches the smart cats amongst the dumb pigeons most every day.
If you really want to improve your trading, or even obtain some (early & cost effective) feedback on whether you possess the muscle to cut it in this snake pit, you'll find yourself a fella who walks the walk & save yourself a whole sackful of misery & dough.
You can cram most of the useless crud out there into a nice neat package & stamp it ‘return to sender’ for all the good it’ll do you.
Lol... this one knows
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Why can't day traders not have a 'directional bias'?because they also have to cover their positions by the last bell, so the same influence they had opening the position is made neutral by closing it. plus they care more for a positional loss on that day than longer term traders do. so that's why i'm saying VAH and VAL are defined by non-daytraders. Perhaps those extended limits are set by those with less incremental views.
i think this should go into "crash course into MP", i thought this thread was suitable but now i'm noticing it's not. If someone is able to move it that'd be cool.
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Is the auction process directed by those that are not daytraders? As day traders we have no directional bias so in a sense we cancel eachother out... Then the only ones left to really put a bias on the auction are non-day traders, Si?
When I think of the concept I imagine kids(daytraders= set A) playing in a sandbox. But If they go outside it, the parents and teachers('set A) push them back in. So 'A define the VAH and VAL, right?
I think SoulTrader had said something along those lines... but that it was definded by the first hour of trading or something.. I'm not sure I remember.. but why would it be restricted only to the beginning of the day? That doesn't seem properly founded and I don't remember that it was.
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If there are any hard working smart fella’s out there in this game I’ve yet to meet one.I’ve rubbed shoulders with real ‘work hard’ junkies who burn their candles from dawn till dusk. I currently chase a dollar with one or two (savvy) individuals who book less than 25 hrs a week on the ledger, & usually less if they can engineer it :o
The latter generally far outpace the former regards consistent profit returns too I can tell you, & in my experience always have.
A smart fella don’t got to work hard. That’s why he’s a smart fella in the first place! He leaves all the hard work to those who assume that’s what they got to do to get ahead in this game.
i lost the reins on this topic awhile ago and don't know where it went but i think i'm being called lazy by some now. my clocks ticking and some have matters that press more than others.
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Not trying to jump on the bandwagon here.......... but you can understand everyones concerns.If you go prop and tell the firm your method and it produces figures like you said..... I can GUARANTEE that one or more people within that firm will leave and trade YOUR system via their own accounts......... and then they might tell there closest pals....... who then tell their closest pals.............. and before you know it.......... they'll be a $5000 webinar via TradetheMarkets.com
If I were you, I would tell no-one... call it selfish or whatever, but I would call it LOOKING AFTER YOURSELF, because no one else will !
Hope this helps
Blu-Ray
Yeah you're right.. I'm going to try and work something out with the manager... he sounds like a good guy maybe he'll keep it on the low for me.
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It's one thing to have a successful strategy, the important part is being able to trade it. Learn to trade it well and only then will you have to worry about others stealing your idea.One of the easiest ways to protect your method would be to disguise what you are doing. Using extra indicators, external data, etc. which you don't use all adds to the mystique for someone trying to follow your success.
If they ask, just give 'em pages full of charts and tell them to figure it out for themselves, just like you had to :rofl:
Good luck with your strategy.
Lol I'll pin-up papers on game theory all around my desk.
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i've been in the market for 4 years now, i've gotten my lights knocked out before. i know how things work... but your concern is appreciated, Blowfish.
the firm i'm joining (I've decided to do this prop, not on an individual account...execution speed, commish costs, BP the pros beat my cons there) sounds great, i like the manager, they offered me a really good deal, and they sound ethical. I don't want to be a jerk and not let them in on it if they so want, I just don't want it to get outside the firm and become null.
but but but.... I'd still like to know if there are ways to create terms in a contract to protect a traders' methode/strategy. Does anyone have any ideas about this? Thank you.
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try taking 10 diversified stocks with good price volatility, exit any position that goes against you immediatly, and hold the ones that stay positive. some chart reading and earnings anticipation may help your odds but this is all i can think of doing in 3 months. good luck man.
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Yeah, run off now that you've got a dose of reality.Do you really need the stress of managing other peoples money (OPM)?
And yes, the figures matter. Isn't that the reason we all trade? To make money?
Some more than others, to be sure - but we really wouldn't want anyone stealing our edge away from us.
Assuming you can trade this method with size - that is, it scales up nicely - you should have no problem compounding your returns as shown in another post.
Heck, if I were you, I'd save up or even get a line of credit for $5K and start trading that methodology right away.
Prove to yourself that you can make a living and sustain yourself first, then take it to the next level. Until you do so consistently with real money, though, it's all just a pipe dream.
-fs
k we'll see
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"with basically no draw-down other than commiss and slippage." Sounds too good to be true so it probably is (too good to be true).i've been looking for "it" for awhile now. the people in this forum are intelligent and are helping me tighten the last bolts, which is appreciated. I asked this question to find if there were any terms in contract agreements, anything of the sort, that could be created to protect a trader's method. frankly, i don't care about your nay-saying.
Price Distribution and Probability of a Winning Bet
in Market Profile
Posted
I don't have intra-day futures or currency charts but I'd be surprised if they weren't elaborate. By elaborate I don't just mean volatile.. volatile doesn't specify anything. I mean the presence and frequency of each price swing.
I don't think the Nasdaq has short-term volatility because it's difficult to price forward, who's re-evaluating it on a minute-to-minute basis? Its not just the Indexes... all the large cap stocks move like this. They're being traded by programs. The risk ratio is getting taken out 10 times before the stock climbs to touch a reward ratio, so where are the chances for a retail trader?
I think this is one of THE most important factors to a retail trader's success. It doesn't matter if you use a 3 to 1 R/R, If the market you trade hits your risk 5 times before reward it's not going to work. Traders must select their markets carefully, or ignore this obvious factor at their own loss.
ts
ebay
aos
air
compare these to what you trade now, apply your R/R and see. I don't trade a straight-forward strategy and I wouldn't even ignore this.