Price Action Patterns Do Not Mean the Market Isn't Random

[Price Action Patterns Do Not Mean the Market Isn't Random]

1a2b3cppp.....there are plenty of "setups" that deliver a positive expectancy and they are not hard to find on forums. One in particular I just ran on 300 stocks going back to 1995 and 54% of the time it hit a 5% target before hitting a 5% stop (43,000 times). Bias in the data...sure - survivorship for one...Random? I don't think so...

 

Start with something like that (a very slight expectancy) then you have to apply your own knowledge, skill and discipline to make it really profitable. Either you have an innate talent to add the context to the setup to make money or you need to learn it. I did not have the innate talent....and had to learn it - through thousands of hours of work, pain and suffering.

[Don't Be Fooled By Randomness]

well not all of us were fortunate enough to be... "taught how to trade by a couple of professional traders." and had to find our own way.

 

If you know of resources and teachers for retail traders to become professional traders that you recommend, then please provide them for those that could benefit from them

 

I would have added one more to your "characteristics of retail traders":

spend endless hours on forums bragging about their success and disparaging other methods

 

and another to the "characteristics of professional traders":

avoid wasting time on forums bragging about their success - rather they recognize there are many different ways to interact with the markets all with varying levels of success

 

 

Yep so true.

 

 

 

HAHAHAHHAHAHA!!!!!!!! LOLOLOLOL Silly retail. Hey just because some one sells you something and tells you that is what the pros use doesn't make it so. Oh yea and the books created by the "pros." HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA What books? Psychology books? Those are books about trading written by psychologists.

 

Who is out there teaching the underlying basics of supply/demand/inflection points correctly? The Predictor? Folks on this forum? Who really uses correlated markets? Forex guys are the only ones I guess. Don't try to post anything on the ES thread about the bonds or notes because that thread is only for ES. There are only a few MP books out there and lets be honest if you read them you would still be at a loss for executable information. Sorry full time MP guys. What is left from your list? Oh yea "pro techniques." Like floor pivots. More laughable crap.

 

I know folks call this crap pro all day long. Hey if you have some sort of system that uses some sort of Fib, MA, Stoch, MACD, algo, with some abandon baby with 3 crows flying and to execute it you flip a coin then good for you. I know a guy that uses MACD and MAs and I watched him add on to a loser for 3 days in the ES. Does he makes money with that? Maybe. I literally get email everyday trying to sell me stuff that some so called pro uses. Pro room moderator/program seller. Pro trader ??? pfffff not a chance.

 

This goes to anyone. If you are taking money out of the market and you can pay your bills with it then good. Short sell, long sell, throw a spaghetti noodle up there if you can trade off of it and if you have to get one of those little monkeys that smokes and rides a unicycle with the little Shriner/turban hat thingies to trade with to make money then do it. I personally don't have a monkey because my wife wont allow smoking in the house.

 

For me I was taught how to trade by a couple of professional traders. Both traded in Chicago on the floor the whole 9. They taught me to trade a certain way. That way works for me. Seems to work for others too.

 

So yea so much garbage out there. I do disagree however on you should just go your own way. There is no way with out help I would of been able to figure out how to do what I am doing with out help. I think its better to learn how to do something that others are using that works and is already working instead of inventing something from scratch.

[Don't Be Fooled By Randomness]

very well put. kicking myself for getting sucked into this thread

 

[quote

 

> I sincerely love threads like this.

And I always appreciate the ‘pros don’t use _______’ etc posts …………

Until I recall how many instances I would have been better off just relying on my methods with “charts” and (random) “TA” instead of “the underlying basics of supply/demand/inflection points”, "correlations", MP, books, etc. and other 'pro' techniques... (find your own way) :missy:

[Don't Be Fooled By Randomness]

what makes an economist's book any more correct than the various other books out there on trading?

 

He may have been fooled by randomness and settled on index funds but i am not. Is it a coincidence that he both peddles index funds and is an index fund manager? I can assure you there is nothing "random" in that correlation.

 

I successfully day trade and swing trade using charts alone and no tape.

 

That said, finding a consistently profitable edge in the charts was not easy and took a long time.

 

The first and most important step on my road to success was to stop listening to gurus, talking heads, economists and most importantly - journalists.

[FirstStrike Trading System]

try searching for "stops flexible" and easylanguage for a great trailing stop strategy you could layer into it. I did that on some other things i played around with and it was a great addition.

[Buy My Trading Strategy - It's Brilliant!!]

Sorry - but there are good educators out there someone can learn from and significantly shortcut the learning curve. They are not hard to find either and I wont name them to avoid getting flamed (and wont even do it in PM).

 

What turned me around was comparing my current career to my trading. In my career I am quite successful. To get to that level i needed a degree and 10 + years working in my field with coworkers and managers that TAUGHT me the trade. In addition to that, once i began mentoring others, i got even better.

 

Same thing for trading - lots of education (paid or otherwise) and lots of practice working with colleagues and mentors to significantly shorten the learning curve and learn the right way to do it.

 

Without mentors in my current career, I sincerely doubt I would have achieved the success i have. I concluded that the same was likely true in my trading education. I have paid for education i found to be worthless and have paid for education that was not. Once I realized i needed a mentor and committed myself to that group i went from struggling to consistently profitable very quickly.

 

Now it wasnt the educator that was solely responsible for that, I was doing a lot of things correctly already - but that educator significantly accelerated my learning curve.

 

I also believe that instantly assuming an educator cant trade or is unprofitable is flawed logic. First, many people teach, mentor and educate because they enjoy the helping others succeed. Not every person is solely driven by financial reward (in fact most people are not).

 

Second, just like in any other career there are varying levels of success (traders that are profitable every month vs. every week vs. every day, etc.) and even the best traders can have very erratic earnings. It is perfectly reasonable (and justifiable) for a trader to seek additional compensation through mentoring/teaching to smooth out their personal earnings.

 

All of that said, unless you are willing to work hard (12+hours /day) and remain determined despite very bad days - you will likely not succeed - educator/mentor or not (note the same is true of many careers with high financial rewards).

[Manual or Automated Trading?]

for whatever its worth, i coded an "automated" strategy for my non-automated strategy. then i used the code to help me optimize my manual trading. For example, I suspected certain times of the day or days of the week were more profitable than others and coding it helped me confirm that fact.

 

I also found that I needed to work on my exit strategies to improve returns. I was also able to assess the trade off of tighter stops vs looser stops etc.

 

I wish i could get it to work on auto pilot but i am not just that good at coding.