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johnw

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Posts posted by johnw

  1. Posted

    Hi Johnw

     

    I find that there is a shift in trader's perception around the 5 year of trading (sometimes longer). When they have experienced the ups and downs of trading this long, they come to realize that maintaining a Marlboro Man attitude towards the supremacy of Rationalism is simply killing them slowly by maintaining it. I believe this is your perpetual mediocrity. And trading will expose this tragic flaw in their thinking if only they would look at their trading account as the barometer of the effectiveness of their beliefs that they are projecting onto the markets. But they insist on not listening to the facticity of their trading account -- and will continue to believe in their self deception until the money runs dry.

     

    I get traders write all the time who have burned through their capital and time (staunchly maintaining their Marlboro Man position) and only then wake up to the folly of their logic. And, of course, they want me to help them out in the spirit of charity to a newly awakened soul who has seen the light.

     

    My work has been blessed by earnest traders recognizing that the belief system that they assess trading through is the missing piece to becoming a masterful trader. Meanwhile there is silence.

     

    Have a prosperous year

    Rande Howell

     

    Thanks Rande,

     

    There is a great deal of truth in the expression "all we have to work with is ourselves"

    The part that is missing is "but first we must learn how we work"

     

    2014 is going to be a most interesting year as we continue to borrow our way out of debt and throw rhetoric at the reasons why it is not working.

    We are in BA for a few months and last Thursday the City temperature hit a humid 47.8C (118F) on the very day that the Central Bank gave up their futile efforts to defend the Peso.

     

    The whole place is a shambles needless to say .... but as some Wit remarked "we know how to create a crisis and then how to survive it"

    How is that for 'perpetual mediocrity' ...

     

    Regards

  2. Posted

    The "Group-Think" of Traders that Blinds Them to What Really Matters

     

    Have you ever listened to groups of traders talking about trading? If you have, you’d think (particularly to yourself) that everybody was hitting homeruns and driving in runs. But that’s not the reality. ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

    And now it is time to embrace self-honesty as a tool and reconstruct the mind that trades. It is your choice – stay stuck in old self-limiting patterns or intentionally and consciously grow new ones, adapted for the world of uncertainty found in trading.

     

    I thought this was another of your very incisive pieces Rande. Thank you.

    You have added more bite to to this one which may well account for the deafening silence from the assembled crowd.

     

    perpetual mediocrity

     

    This is a very catchy little truism.

     

    Years ago (in another life) I had built up a staff of around 50-60 people and since I owned the Company, I took a particular interest in their well being and their incomes.

    Occasionally, when someone was under performing I would have a quiet chat with them (not necessarily only about their job performance) and it always wound up with " you have perpetual potential, just make certain that you don't take it with you to the grave"

     

    That little phrase could bat above it's weight and change attitudes overnight.

     

    Regards

  4. Posted

    Hi RH,

     

    Another very interesting piece from you

    I particularly appreciated ..

    To be released from the comfort zone that the brain has created, but that now has become a prison to your growth as a trader (and as a human being), you courageously embrace your history (simply accepting it as one possible organization of the self) and begin taking responsibility for the organization of the self that you can be.

     

    IMO it ranks right up there with an earlier piece from you ..

    If you have any weaknesses (realised or unrealised), Trading will reveal them.

    (the quote may not be exactly word for word)

     

    many thanks

  5. Posted

    The most important aspect of learning to trade is not to get ahead of Price.

    Just relax and watch, relax and watch and you will be to understand how Price moves in waves.

    Each wave can be separated by a battleground where longs and shorts fight for supremacy.

    Sometimes the waves just reverse as though every Trader agrees on a change of direction.

    But then again, every Trader cannot agree otherwise Price would stall because for every Bought Contract there must be a Sold Contract.

     

    These simple little things are the guts of trading.

     

    Try to place Indicators to one side until you establish a sense of confidence that you can follow Price ... at this point many things will become evident to you.

     

    Much of what is written about Indicators here on TL is written by People who have not reached this point of understanding ... in fact many have not even tried to understand Price and so they are doomed before they even start.

  6. Posted

    This ''strategy'' , you mean some sort of ''feeling'' that comes out of experience after the careful obsevation and abandon indicators in general even the concepts of res and supp ?

     

     

    Hi livernik,

     

    I would suggest that you only watch the price bars and concentrate on what bars you think best represent price (time, range, tic, vol) and what size bars you want.

     

    If for example you chose 3 minute bars, at least you will understand what is unfolding before your eyes because you have weighed up the options and then made a choice.

    This is quite different from using 3 minute bars because someone else mentioned them.

     

    Supply/ demand will open up to you from watching price.

  7. Posted

    I was discussing this guy with some friends about a year ago - none of his companies ever really made any money, nor produced anything as far as we could tell. It was all 'big talk; raise lots of money spend it and grow your wealth using a share price. Plenty do it, and he did it very well....however picking the top in these things is fraught with danger.

    When there is no substance behind it it crumbles quickly.

    Occasionally they get the timing right, they hit oil, mining riches etc and get on a commodity boom etc and are able to maintain that wealth to a degree.

     

    In this case I think the miss fortune is for those who invested in his companies!

     

     

    Welcome to South America .. the continent of perpetual potential.

     

    On a brighter note, I am sure that the Latino attitude will give way to a more Nordic approach to business and SA will have it's day in the sun.

     

    Just make certain that you stay alive long enough to join in the celebrations.

  8. Posted

    I expect Harvey 1 to continue explaining chaos theory as I never had the chance to go through it in depth.

    Maybe zdo is right or not , I would like to know more about his view.

     

    Hi livernik,

     

    The markets have changed a great deal in the last few years as Quants have replaced Traders and now rule the markets.

     

    If you watch the Price very carefully and monitor the ask-bid volume you will come to understand The Quants perspective.

     

    From this knowledge you can devise a strategy to put you into the market and then pull you out again.

    IMO this is time better spent than following TA history.

     

    good luck

  9. Posted · Edited by johnw

    I think there's two ways in which the importance of psychology manifests itself. In the first instance, right at the start of the journey it's psychology that differentiates those prepared to put in the work, from those looking for easy answers. It's the same in sport, people need tenacity and determination to put in the training to differentiate themselves above those with similar levels of natural talent. That's the barrier that stops the significant majority from succeeding

     

    If we take sports, then its beyond doubt that psychology can have a major impact on performance, and that's applicable across all levels of skill, from school children to Olympic athletes

     

    In my limited experience, I've always found that traders who took the time to develop their own edges, struggled less with psychological issues than those who don't. Having said that I'm concluding this from a very small sample size.

     

    It's a bit of a catch 22 situation. ZDO's comment is getting somewhere closer to the truth. However its the" failing in order to learn" bit that causes the practical difficulties

     

    To succeed you must improve

    To improve you must practice

    To practice you must first learn

    To learn you must first fail

     

    I don't want to get too off topic but most traders of my acquaintance wouldn't know if they where failing or not. They equate failure with a reduction in their account balance, which given the complexity of the task we are undertaking, isn't necessarily the right dependent variable that should be observed.

     

    In addition, the RANDOM distribution of gains and losses make the evaluation of failure or success more difficult to gauge

     

    A series of trades which looks like WWWWWWW may possibly be just as much of a failure as a series of trades which looks like LLLLLLLLL

     

    Nice piece of work Zupcon ..very nice indeed.

     

    If People come into trading with no prior experience of what it takes to struggle and persevere in an individual effort such as Arts, Sport, Disability/Injury then they will naturally take the course of trying to match their academic firepower against the Market.

    I don't think that it is arrogance that causes this, but rather it is the result of a complete and utter lack of understanding of how we function as Humans and what our potential really is.

     

    I thought your posts were very clear and refreshing .... "most people fail"

  10. Posted

    No .There is more to trading than just discipline.It is the test of character . phsyche and resilience of the individual.Traders have to use their brains on multiple tasks simultaenously .

    ............................................................................................................

    Most traders brains are overloaded , Many traders freeze in real time , and suffer uncertainty and past history , and are unable to trade effectively.

     

    gm OILFXPRO,

     

    You have just written the ROAD TO FAILURE ..

     

    Now how about balancing this well written piece by writing THE ROAD TO SUCCESS.

  11. Posted

    Speaking of S/R. I've long long being a serious advocate of S/R zones. However, in an attempt to learn something new I read a book that challenged the usefulness of S/R. I was gobsmacked at the suggestion! But I persevered with his exercise, and that is; open a chart and hide your price bars, draw some lines at random on the chart and now make your price bars visible. My world just fell apart. I often saw the same interactions on these random lines as I did on my S/R lines. Do the exercise a few dozen times, change the symbols, change the timeframe - same result from my study.

     

    :doh: WOWSERS! :doh: :doh: :doh: :crap:

     

    With kind regards,

    MK

     

    PS: The book is: The Art & Science of Technical Analysis by Adam Grimes

     

    Hello MK,

     

    There are many instances of these mental experiments and they do make us think ... as indeed they should.... in many human endeavours, especially those that require one Learned Soul passing un(semi) quantifiable to a hungry Student, it works.

     

    However Trading is as quantifiable as it gets ... just look at your daily Brokerage Statement.

    It is even more exact than being the World's fastest man... even if you run the 100M in the fastest recorded time, there is always the suspicion of drugs hanging over the Runners head.

     

    Trading is brutally honest.

     

    And so when People tell us things like 'S&R doesn't really work" they are demonstrating the limits of their range of their thoughts or assumptions on the subject.

     

    When I say to Handle 'the supply/demand zones exist intraday CL' ... I say this because I can see them.

    I do not say to Handle that if he doesn't use them then he must be nuts, because that would be a presumption on my part... Handle is a Trader and answers only to himself.

    S&D zones are the result of Longs and Shorts doing battle and the Winner controls the next Price Wave ... to me this is the very essence of market structure and it is the guts of trading.

    The Zones will be as long as your bars are small ... it is your choice entirely how you choose to exhibit your price information.

    Once we accept these concepts, then we can decide how we are going to build a mathematical edge that is applied consistently.

    Without this edge we are dog tucker.

    Without this edge, Retail Traders who are well funded will take longer to go broke than Traders with smaller balances.

    However the Trader who grasps the structure of the market and who builds a mathematical edge will grow their account.

     

    In short ...

    It doesn't matter what you do, so long as you grow your account.

    This means that any/all experiences, opinions, thoughts and assumptions should be embraced openly and put to the test mathematically before any decision is taken.

     

    This is a brutally honest game ... and I mean that we have to be brutally honest with ourselves in every respect.

  12. Posted

    For example, look at CL today. Yesterday's high (resistance?) :confused: was 108.09. Market shot right through it 3:19 AM (PST) went to 108.58.

    ..........................................................

    So I'm not sure that there is an edge in support and resistance. Of course it's only one day, but you get the point. No edge. IMHO. But if you have a method that works for S/R, then you are the man!! :cool:

     

    Hi Handle

     

    Try looking inside your 5 minute charts, rather just focusing on the daily lines

     

    They are there

  13. Posted

    Thanks handle. Would you say it has good entries for someone who has a good understanding of intraday support and resistance but who has trouble finding the right place and time to enter?

     

    i am very good at finding intraday levels but when the price reaches them, i have no idea how to confirm that the level is holding or when to enter(without being too late)

     

    For example: today when the ES pulled back to 1683.50 around 12noon EST, my analysis said that as long as 1683 holds, the trade should be good for a long. I was thinking it might pullback to 1683 but it didn't so I didn't know how to handle that situation.

     

    Thanks again

     

    Hello Rick,

     

    Your analysis was good, the pullback to 83.50 was in an uptrend that showed no signs of weakness and so the pullback was a BUY.

    However, you were hoping/assuming that the price would fall to your level of 83.00, but it didn't... this is not a clever thing to do, since you are giving away control of the trigger.

    Remember that price controls direction, but you control the trigger ...this is important.

     

    What you are lacking is a Traders Mind ...ie what am I going to do when price reaches a supply/demand zone

    I say 'zone' rather than 'level' because when price reaches a supply/demand area things can get messy as it shakes out the weak Players and tries to trap other Players on the wrong side.

     

    This is the essence of Trading.

    What you need to contemplate, is entering after a return to upward momentum (in this example) or a retest of the low of the zone.( offering a better entry and a tighter stop)

    Your stop size is critical.

    Also, if you have any thoughts of win/loss ratios, I would place them gently to one side and retrain yourself to think in terms of hold/scratch ... in other words, once you are in the market your options then become ... will I continue (hold this trade) or will I scratch this entry and look for better one.

    The next entry might be in a minute into the same price wave, in which case it may well yield an extra tic or three to cover your scratch trade, or you may miss this price wave and wait for the next one.

     

    Add up your scratch trades each day and when the total is close to zero, or better still, it is positive, it means that your trading style of entry is exactly on the money.

     

    Focusing on staying in a winning trade without being prematurely 'shaken out' is another subject.

  14. Posted · Edited by johnw

    tradingwizzard,

     

    I place the order at the start of the new candle / bar.

     

    Thank you.

     

    Tony

     

    Good for you handle for applying Joe's methods on the odd occasion when you get a signal.

    There is nothing wrong watching the price all day as you learn.

    If you are not doing so already, pay careful attention to the LH and HL ... how they are formed and where they are formed and where the next bar starts in relation to the previous HL and LH.

    After awhile you will begin to see where the market is being pushed.

  15. Posted

    Well there you have it.

    Two well written posts .......Mr Patuca , on scalping/ short term trading

    And Mr Horseshoes on longer term/ end of day trading.

    Maybe this should be moved to a new thread to allow others to comment

    regards

    bobc

     

    If you are determined to intraday trade the ES, you will find over time that most (if not all) of your thoughts towards trading will melt away as they are replaced by thoughts that are particular towards your new found interest

     

    Words like 'noise' will cease to exist ... win/loss ratio will fade away as you focus on entry continuance or scratch.

    You lose interest in R/R but you might be heavily attracted to moving averages of High/Low and whether they are traveling in near straight lines from time to time and whether your bar entry lies inside/outside the last bar mov av. of High/Low.

    RTH Open will be a fat line across your chart together with Yesterday's Close ...2,3 day high/low plus other lines dragged forward from significant recent and not so recent turning points.

     

    Trend and momentum merge (who cares what to call the next few minutes) ..either you have bought in or sold in to the developing price wave... you are either long or short on an OCO trade and your management requires you to drag the stops around the DOM, or hit the Flatten button when you want out.

    Trailing Stops are for other People.

     

    This style of trading is not everyone's cup of tea quite frankly .... it is best treated as a game IMO and as such we train for it ... and train hard.

     

    We all need a realistic understanding of our appetite to stress and our ability to react immediately.

    The rewards are good, because you are doing the same thing several times each day, (although your no. of lots keeps increasing) ... and over time you will come to understand that the price is repeating patterns but not always in the same order.

     

    That is why People hold the believe that the market is random.

     

    Remember that 'No. of Lots"' does the heavy lifting ... you just need to provide stability.

     

    Lastly, it is a simple game and you must keep it that way ... there is no time for complexity

  16. Posted · Edited by johnw

    Good morning from St. Martin (French Side)

     

    As always a very interesting thread.

    If you wiki "List of cognitive biases" you may be as suprised as I am to see a seemingly never ending list ..how on earth is an Individual expected to work through this list I wonder.

     

    My favourite cb is The Dunning-Kruger Effect ....we are surrounded by it and it is in play at a very serious level right now.

    I wouldn't be at all suprised to wake up tomorrow morning (Sunday) to the news that the World has yet again lurched into another blunder.... blunder upon blunder

     

    I do agree with you Rande that trading is very effective at bringing People to the point where they accept that they must re-organise themselves or retreat back into their world of make believe.

    Short of putting your own life on the line, trading provides a brutal mirror into which we can gaze... what happens next is up to us.

     

    And so this thread has brought together two keystones of trading.

    Steve46 writes about having a proven mathematical edge ... this is essential and it must be complete and seamless (no gaps) ... and it must be doable in Real Time .... the mathematical edge will most probably be layered.... to take account of context, triggers and exits.... in other words it is probability upon probability upon probability etc

    Each of these situations have a probability and when they are layered one on top of the other you have a trade. ... anything less than this and you do not have a trade... the market controls the game, but you control the trigger.

     

    Rande, your simultaneous firing of left/right brain (what I call 'lining up all the troops')

    maximises our potential ...and makes Simple Tasks (trading) that are very hard to do, become Simple.

     

    As for the seemingly endless list cognitive biases .... the more you combine Rande's seamless combination of left/right brain and apply it to the mathematical edge that Steve46 talks about, then the more you will relax.

    The more you relax, then the more the cog biases will melt away ... after all, we are trying to reclaim the life that is ours to live, just as other People are trying desperately to wrench away from us. sounds a lot like the Markets doesn't it.

     

    Nice to hear Buddha andCarl Jung mentioned together, Rande.

    Carl and I shared a birthday last month .... with one major difference ...and it was the same day that Mick Jagger turned 70 as it turned out.... he has a three year head start on me.

     

    Good luck next week

     

    PS. Rhythm... I forgot to mention rhythm.

    I find it most important to put my self into the same rhythm for each trading day and the day starts on the previous evening.

    I do not vary my routine of sleeping, waking time, exercise, breakfast etc ... the only thing that I want to see bouncing around is The Price .... this I believe is the third pillar.

  17. Posted

    I can think of 85B reasons every month why this current bull market will continue.

     

    Take any of these away and the world will change.

     

    S&P has grown 12% this year and GDP is supposedly up 1.7%

     

    At 85B per month, this life support package is just over 1T per year.

    Place this over a 15T economy and it simply means that life support of 6.7%

    yields growth of 1.7%

  18. Posted · Edited by johnw

    who says it is growing?......I would be curious how would it fare without the QE program

     

     

    Politicians say it is growing ..however with QE running at 85B per month on a say 15T economy (and who is to say that is not overstated) QE = 6.8%

    Try pulling (tapering) that out of the economy and see what happens.

     

    As always, life is a race and the race in Bernie's case is to retire before the whole ball of wax blows up in his face

  20. Posted

    You guys are walking yourselves into the classic failure trap.

    Yes, I read that you are talking about 95% failure rate in the 3rd person, but in reality you are talking in the 1st person.

     

    You need to restart this thread and change the focus ...."5% of Retail Traders are successful ..what habits do they develop that makes them consistently successful"

     

    If you keep analyzing failing habits ... guess what will happen to you.(if it hasn't already)

     

    If you want to join the 5% Winners, you need to create a seamless you

    Give up all the nitpicking self analysis and build yourself into a seamless person.

    If you don't know how to do it, then you had better find out quickly or give up trading.

     

    You need to understand how the market works and let go any childish notions of whether indicators, fibs etc work or they do not work.

    There will come a time when you will know how to bait the trap into which price will move ...this knowledge comes from watching price with an open mind.

     

    In other words, price is going to teach you how it can be trapped ... so just forget the friggin leopard and it's spots.... it is trying to catch a bunny that does not want to be caught ... price is not a bunny...quite the opposite in fact.

     

    Can you not see that all you need to bring to the party is a seamless open mind coupled with a burning desire to win.

    Price will show you the rest of the game and how to play it.

     

    Siuya and Steve46 have good insights into trading IMO.

     

    None of us can afford the luxury of delving into the minds of the 95% or more who fail.

    This is a very dangerous place into which to wander and the sooner we position ourselves with the 5% Winners and their habits, the sooner we are properly functioning people.

  21. Posted

    Zupcon-some good points made.

     

    Johnw- "If a Trader thinks that they understand this process, then they are doomed"

     

    Why? ............................................

    Edit: jw knows i'm only kidding around.He can testify that he has had a good look under my hood a long while back on one of Randes' threads and will confirm there is nothing malicious there.

    ;)

     

    gm Mitzy,

     

    If a Trader thinks that they understand this process, then they are doomed.

    Only when they know that they know how price moves then can they move on to making money consistently.

     

    Now here I am thinking just how far you have come since our wee chat on Rande's thread and now you go and spit the dummy on me....

     

    disappointing Mitzy ..very very disappointing indeed.

  22. Posted · Edited by johnw

    Trading is one of those things that is simple and yet hard to do

    ... it is made hard to do because it is simple

    ... and the more complicated it is made then the more impossible it is to do.

     

    IMO the 'simplicity' of trading lies in getting to the bottom of understanding

    what makes prices move .... everything is based upon the auction process,

    because without it there would be no market .... it is pure and that is where

    it's simplicity lies....

    when there are no more counter parties at a price level, then price moves to the next level.

     

    If a Trader thinks that they understand this process, then they are doomed.

    Only when they know that they know how price moves then can they move on to making money consistently.

     

    Now let us move on to Fibs ... firstly the midpoint (50%) of the last price wave is important.

    This does not mean that price will always hesitate at this point ... but it often does.

    ... too often to ignore in fact.

    We all seem to understand that 50% is not a fibbo, but it seems to crop up in every fibbo thread ... I find this curious and disturbing.

     

    We all seem to understand that price waves are not a precise science ... so imagine what happens when price approaches 50% and shudders under the impact of the Asks and the Bids as Traders fight out the next move ..... will price continue .. or will it turn thus ending this price wave.

     

    Traders give this battle the title of 'consolidation' and define it by an upper and a lower point (the points turn into lines if the battle continues for a few bars or more.)

     

    The upper and lower lines/points will be a few tics either side of the 50% line

    and can easily be around the 40% and 60% mark of the previous price wave ...

    in fact you could call them 62 and 38% ... or why not call them 61.8 and 38.2%

    after all this is not a precise science.

     

     

    If your understanding of price movement is more or less as I have just described

    then I ask you ... what have fibs got to do with the trading auction process?

  23. Posted

    I read price action in relation to key reference levels and taking into account aggressive buyers or sellers. I don't need volume bars or any other type of advanced bar type to do this. (I gave up on them and became profitable because I am concentrating on what matters (I am not saying they don't work - just not for me)

    Not able to do this successfully. Don't get me wrong - I tried to do this for many years and got out of good winners and of course stayed with the losers. Now that I have a tight stop - I don't mind if it gets hit occasionally. I accept the risk.

    I will scratch a trade when sometimes but usually based on my target getting hit but not filled. I keep track of everything - including scratched trades.

    Thanks for your suggestions.

     

    Good for you ... seems as though you have this game all sorted ...

  24. Posted

    Thanks for your article but you missed the method I use for stop placement. It is the method which traders are told NOT to use. A PRICE STOP.

     

    The reason I use this method is that I have a setup which count son momentum and after recording and analyzing well over 2000 trade setups in realtime, it is quite clear that some trades work immediately with very little MAE (adverse excursion - aka heat) and others don't. They chop around and may or MAY NOT eventually go in your favour. I have found that I want to stay in the working trades and GET OUT OF the chop em up and go nowhere trades. So as an example - even if structure would suggest say a 10 or 12 tick stop is needed in the ES, I enter and exit if 6 ticks of adverse excursion is experienced. NQ is 12 ticks (max 15), EC is 8-10 - (max 14), TY (ten year) is 4). (The range varies according to the setup being used, ie. the reason for getting into the trade).

     

    Now the BIG ADVANTAGE to this is I can increase (literally DOUBLE) my size and the winners are much larger - the losers controlled.

     

    You might say - well, you will be STOPPED OUT of trades which end up being winners by doing this. Yes, that does happen but my experience is that it happens less than 10% of the time and I am much better off by missing out on some - but staying in on the ones that work right away.

     

    Certainly, the above applies for day time frame trade entries which I expect to exit between 5 - 30 minutes. I would not do this for position trades, overnight or longer timeframe opportunities.

     

    Good for you, you have unraveled the puzzle to momo intraday trading the ES.

    Once you have established consistency then you steadily increase size.

     

    I see you refer to time bars 5-30 minutes.

    Why not try constant volume bars ... they will add a smoother flow to your game.

    Why not try thinking in terms of win/scratch rather than win/loss... by all means maintain a 4-5 tic stop loss but think about scratching the trade for a tic or two either way rather than allowing your stop to be hit.

    Keep track of these scratch trades each day and as you improve your skills their running total will steadily approach zero .. just imagine that, all your 'bad' trades incur a zero sum loss.

     

    Give some thought to OCO trading and simply drag your two stops across the DOM ... never open up the stop loss.

    Try a second screen 3x the size of your trading screen to offer direction and profit taking opportunity .... when this becomes second nature, try adding a 3rd screen 3x larger than the 2nd screen.

    Be aware of the rth open at all times plus the usual range of previous high/lows ... the distance that price is from these horizontal lines is always critical as they have a magnetic effect.

    The accumulated bid/ask delta is a two edged sword .... if you learn how and when to use it then it is useful ... if you are kidding yourself then it will work against you... my suggestion is to leave the delta alone until you know that you know what it means to you.

     

    Once you begin to master this method, no amount of morphing, bots, news etc can ruin your day... some days will be good and some days will be even better, but these are the only two outcomes there can be ...unless of course you lose the plot.

    good luck

  25. Posted

    Trading is math and statistics and a share of good luck. Any other approach is doomed to fail and 95% of traders will fail because they don't understand math and statistics.

     

    Hi equtrader,

     

    Yes, that is the attitude that most people bring into trading, only to experience disappointment, followed by more disappointment as they continue to ram math and stats at the infinite world of trading.

     

    Steve46 and some others view the trading world from a realistic point of view.

     

    The question then arises as to whether a risk adverse Person can change into a Risk Manager.

    It all depends on how badly they want it ... assuming they can accept that the problem is them in the first place.

    Most people never get past this acceptance stage ... and the very few who do, then face the commitment to change.

    By this stage, the Survivors of this self selection process are reaching a place of acceptance and are finally beginning to see and enjoy the real world of trading.

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