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Posts posted by uriyanko

  1. Hi, I put a lot of effort into the JPERL method - I developed software according to his method similar to yours - but I did not find this method profitable - for example I did not find that using SKEW most likely ensures that the market will go in the right direction. I also did not find that this type of SKEW is sufficient and I also tried other methods for calculating the SKEW without much success. I found myself doing hundreds of trading operations to get a few dozen points in total on the Mini-SP500. In general I came to the conclusion that this type of statistic is of "large numbers" of trading - perhaps to Algotrade without restrictions on the amount of daily operations - so I had a problem.

  2. Actually I have a PhD in maths, specifically in probability, lol. So funny you are.


    When you're in a hole, stop digging. You stated


    "mathematically here is something to think about I'm going to assume a 50% chance of winning a trade right? Which is extremely high and doesn't exist... if you traded 5 times in a row thats 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = approx. 3% chance of winning for an UNBIAS SYSTEM, so imagine taking 100 trades. "


    This is plainly wrong. There is a 3% chance of winning all 5 trades, but a much higher % of winning over the 5 trades. And you also claim 50% chance is extremely high and doesn't exist. That again is silly. I'm not the only one who recognised that your calculation and statement didn't make sense.


    Like I said, stop digging.


    Your post has demonstrated a clear lack of understanding in both maths and trading. JP Morgan recently announced they made a profit on 63 out of the last 63 days trading. Perhaps they fudge the figures, who knows, but according to you they should leverage to 1000, lol, because if they have anything better than 50% why not leverage all the way? Don't be absurd.


    Your question is, is winning a trade higher than 50% or less? There is no way to even remotely answer that without stating stop and target and spread. Altering stop and target, I could make it 70%, 30% etc. win rate.


    What are you trying to say? That it's impossible to make money trading?




    Market can be as random or behavior of the investor can be random - two different things. Realistically market consists of the total behavior of investors who try to behave as a certain logic - usually in relation to others and so the market could not be random. If any investor would enter a position at random and randomly out of it - then the whole market was random.

  3. Hello forexpipcatcher, welcome to TL :)


    with this statement i assume you think the market is random, and hence I would like to ask - why trade?

    If its random you cannot outperform the passive returns a market will give you over the long term.....


    As for the linked thread, this just shows that some people will outperform a market even if their trades are random, while there is still a fair percentage that will actually make money, but the trade off boils down to passive v active trading/management.

    I got the impression from your answer that for you the answer is about consistency despite the fact/evidence/probability that there will be some people who make money regardless of who they do it.




    I think the topic is interesting even at the theoretical level - Is it possible to earn in market as such seems random or certain people think so. There are physical systems that can benefit from random fluctuations - automatic spring stretching system in mechanical clock, battery charging system using diode and so on.

  4. I fully admit price may not be random, it's just in years of studying it, I have not been able to predict it.


    I agree you can see S/R points in the past, and sometimes price in the future respects them. As you said, I have seen price bounce off the exact same level as it did in the past. But that doesn't mean you can predict it. The chart I posted that was randomly generated also shows price bouncing off previous S/R points.


    And there are many times price completely ignores a previous S or R point.


    Until I can find a way to reliably predict when it's going to bounce off S or R vs. going through it, I won't be able to trade based off of them.


    I'm still working on it, though.


    I really appreciate the courage to present a deviation - the subject itself is interesting - even at the theoretical level - Is it possible to earn from random situations - perhaps even Roulette. Irrespective of whether it really Random - I understand your position that says that for you it is random. Still, even mathematically random principle says that over time can earn half the time and half the time you can lose - regardless of any strategy.

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