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mikew
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Posts posted by mikew
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*I think special attention to developing long-term edge,
*Develop some basis for entering a trade.
How do you develop some basis for entry, that you can reliably determine has an edge? Certainly theres plenty of traders who have developed a basis for entry when two moving averages cross one another. But how can you be sure of what you're choosing actually DOES have a long-term edge?
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The alternative is deflation and another Great Depression. Who wants that on their hands? Policy makers will continue to push the problem into the future
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This is Beethoven's Pathetique (2nd Movement of Sonata). Can you hear the difference?Freddy kempf - Pathetique Mov 2 -
much prefer Rubinstein's interpretation
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No, but I was looking into them
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A good book on market micro structure. I rather like Larry Harris 'Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners'. From what others have said to me you might find it heavy going, I really enjoyed it. Perhaps check it out in a library before shelling out or there used to be a couple of free chapters from an early draught on the interwebz too.Yeah thanks, already started reading this. Really good
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Good discussion, I'm definitely on the same page as you guys
Similarly in trading, you need to trade against people who you know you can get money from. If you enter a trade, say, short, who do you expect to pay you in order for you to make money? Are they present? Can you take money from other short term highly capitalized traders if you are trading against them? Do you want to take a trade against a long term trader who sees the S&P as units of 100 points? Do you want to be on the same side as a long term trader if other traders who attempt to prey on long term traders are present?
Yes, and these questions are very very difficult to answer for me. Are there people that can answer these? Is it even possible? Or is everyone in the markets just gambling?
Playing the players seems infinitely harder in trading because you can never know who is on the other side of your trade. Instead of playing against one person, you are playing against the collective.
The major difference is - in trading, the rules of the game are not clear. In poker you have clearly defined rules how the game worksTrading in contrast is far more complex. There are no rules defined.
exactly.. So how does one go about figuring out "how trading works" ?
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Velocity Futures is a popular one
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I'm not sure what exactly you're trying to say with your post.. but I have an idea because I
can relate.
Having been a successful poker player, I can pretty easily weed out the good advice from the bad. And let me tell you, 90% of poker advice is bad. 90% of poker instructional books are crap written by losing players who wouldn't stand a chance in a game with real professionals. And the people with the firmest opinions are usually in those 90%. I think trading is probably similar.
So as I attempt to learn trading, I am constantly filtering through books, posts, and other material trying to find some solid ground to base a foundation on. So far, I've yet to find anything that I feel is really useful. Now, as you're saying, maybe I'm not 'ready' to understand some books and missing the point, but I don't think so. Ultimately I need to follow the path that I think and feel is appropriate. I haven't found that path yet in the markets. I just don't think many people have a clue (just as with poker). The closest thing that has grabbed my attn is dbphoenix's price/volume stuff spread across this site, t2w, and et. But even that doesn't fully satisfy me. I reckon most people are just gambling in the markets with no real edge. I don't want to waste my time doing that. I've spoken with one prop trader through email who I believe actually knows what he's doing, but the communication is sparse, i think because he doesn't want to give anything away.
So despite my being a newbie in the markets, I feel fairly confident with my answers below.
Do some people have an innate ability to understand which path they need to tread?
Some might, most probably don't. Like I mentioned above I think that I do, but its not because I'm special, but rather just because of my background in similar fields.
Do some people just strike lucky?Yes, but its unlikely the luck will last as things change. That is of course, unless they hit and run and get out before reality strikes.
Or does a trader need to come full circle before deeply understanding the benefits which they might personally glean from a certain text?
Usually this will be the case.
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Hrm, ok so basically its one reported trade that goes through on the T&S. So a 500 tick chart would mean 500 trades per bar. Got it
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I understand what a 5minute chart is and I understand what a constant volume bar chart is. I assume a tick chart is when each bar changes after the price ticks up or down a certain amount of times?
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Thanks, I signed up for iqfeed demo and will also try Sierra Chart. I like that I can have MarketDelta functionality for 1/4 the price
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I included a screen shot of my Sierra Chart with Iqfeed on a point and figure 6 tick swing. Keep in mind that Sierra Chart number bars are NOT 100% accurate, but it is close enough for me.If you want accurate bid/ask data you are going to have to pay up for it: Iqfeed, Esignal, CQG…
So is DTN IQ Feed accurate or not? Seems like you contradict yourself..
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Sounds great. What did those prop guys tell you? How did they open your eyes? What did they teach you that was different? I'm very interested in your reponse!
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Forgive me, I'm new and just reading through Mind Over Markets now.
I don't understand why you would want to construct a market profile graphic by using time (half hour periods) as the unit to determine where to place the letters. How does time hold any value? It seems that the bell curve is determined by the DURATION of time spent at a certain price. But why is that even relevant? It could have spent the most time at a certain price, but maybe not many contracts had traded there. It seems like its much more useful to use volume of price to construct the graphic instead of time.
Sort of like what dbphoenix was showing here:
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dbphoenix/537-getting-down-cases.html
Can someone clarify for me?
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When you place an order with a retail spot forex broker then your broker does not execute on the market (by calling a bank or whatever), but just takes the other side of your trade. The prices he quotes you are not even real and there is no way to verify them because there is no centralized market. And because there is no centralized market, there is no record of how much traded when and where. Even if you found an ethical retail spot forex broker that did execute your trade on the market, you wouldn't be able to day trade, because depth he quotes you does not show you the entire market depth.Hrmm, so in these cases, the broker is really nothing more than a sports betting bookie. But with bookies, at least you can compare the line you are getting with other outlets online or in vegas. When I open up yahoo and see EURUSD at 1.333, where are they getting this number if there is no central exchange? Could I look at two retail brokers at the same time and see different prices quoted? This does seem strange and I probably will stay away from forex..
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Does not apply to Spot Forex, but Forex Futures. I highly recommend staying away from (Retail) Spot Forex in general, because they don't allow you trade the market, instead you trade directly against them.Could you elaborate on this? I don't really understand what you're saying..
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I've received a few PMs asking me for that book/video. I am not going to tell you, so please don't send me anymore asking me. And you don't even need a confirmation that it's the one I mean. You will know it when you find it. There is only one as far as I know that is not all but bullshit.Ironically I did find one that seems similar. Is the last word/sentence in your above post a hint?
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but that doesn't change the fact that this is how the futures markets workDoes what you say apply only to futures markets? What about stocks or forex?
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Is it my imagination or is there a bit of heavy handed moderation going on here? Oh well no big deal. Having said that there is a real danger of alienating and ultimately loosing users, most people do not like to be censored particularly if it is just a bit of idle banter.
I hope not. I'm of the opinion that its absolutely ridiculous to ever delete any posts unless something very offensive and disruptive is going on, and even then its not a sure thing. Trying to go through some of dbphoenix's posts on t2w is an absolute nightmare when post #s are referenced and no longer match up because of deleted posts.
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This is an old quote but maybe someone can answer
I see that you're confusing the futures and cash market here. Remember, the price changes in the S&P 500 futures market is 98% governed by changes in the S&P 500 Index price.So, when trading the ES for example, should someone be looking at the S&P index chart instead of the ES chart when analyzing price and volume?
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Ok, back at it again.
I'm having trouble because I read something from the course, and I try to understand it. But when I try to see the flaws in the contrasting, devil's advocate position, I can't find them. Usually, both what Wyckoff says and the opposite of what he says both make sense.
From chapter 14M, page 7
A small volume, that is, little activity in a stock, indicates that it is being neglected by traders and the public. When this small volume occurs at the bottom of a consider-able decline, or at the bottom of a reaction or small dip, it usually indicates a lack of pressure; a drying up of the selling (illustrated by Times Average, Sect. 7M, Pg. 33, Jan. 16th to 19th).
(corresponding chart from 7M Jan 16-19th is attached to this post)
Now what I want to discuss is the quote above. Wyckoff is saying that at the end of the attached chart, the small volume on the pullback indicates that selling pressure has dried up. I would then conclude that such a lack of selling pressure is a bullish sign, perhaps a time to take a long position.
However, when I play devil's advocate, it seems just as logical (to me) to say that the low volume on the pullback indicates that there is a lack of BUYING pressure. The fact that the price can drop on low volume means that there is no buyers preventing the drop. If there were buying pressure, then the price would not pull back, but rather it would be supported. So since the price can drop like that with no support stopping it, that would indicate a bearish future.
Does that make any sense? Where am I going wrong?
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But then the FED comes out and essentially says that the dollar will continue to be crushed, so so much for that
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Here ya go Mike with the hard right edge...........Thanks, I'm interpreting that chart as a breakdown of a trading range on higher volume, meaning that we can expect to go lower, as opposed to the selling climax previously discussed. This doesn't look like a selling climax to me, because, well, there hasn't really been an established downtrend to reach a 'climax'
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Hi, its been a while, I've kinda put this off, but just started reading again.
This is from Section 14M, page 8:
Suppose a stock were traded in at the rate of 2,000 shares a day for many days, within a range of 2 points. This would be merely a trader's market in that stock. But if it should break down through its former supporting line, and the volume should increase to 3,000 or 4,000 shares a day, this would be a relatively large change, indicating an increase in the supply sufficient to overcome the proportionately smaller demand. The volume of stock wanted by buyers may not have shrunk, but the increase in the quantity coming to market would be more than these buyers were able to absorb. So the price would decline, and the effect of its declining under these conditions would be to induce more people to sell, thereby adding to the supply.
Why wouldn't the price drop induce people to buy, when they see the lower prices as a bargain? How does this increase in volume differ from that of a selling climax? In both cases the price drops lower on large volume. But in a selling climax the recommendation is to go long. Where as in the paragraph above, it seems that Wyckoff is suggesting that prices will continue lower..
Quit Job to Watch DOM.
in Futures
Posted
Yeah I suppose so, simulating for several months should be enough to give you a good idea.
But is statistical samples the only way to determine if you have an edge? Suppose you simulate for 6 months and win consistently, and then you go live and the market changes and you no longer win. It seems to me the WHY behind the trades is where the true edge must be, but I'm having a hard time figuring it out..