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  1. Hey Johnny,


    Been reading some of your posts and I love your friggin' honesty. It's a breath of fresh air.... I'm a software engineer and have been doing automated trading now since the beginning of 2008. I trade exclusively US stocks and have managed +50% return each year since (2008, 2009 and 2010). This year, I'm currently only up $31K on a $260K account, so I'm not doing nearly as well. The market's volume/range have dropped off substantially and as such, my momentum type of strat is not working as well. But, that's the way the old ball bounces.


    Anyway, if you don't mind, I'd like to be able to add you as a friend, just so that I can see your posts.




    Jason Sapp

  2. All true. But I'd like to also point out that a $2,500 account can go to $0 in 10 minutes. Johnny
  3. I see your point. You make sense. My objective is to help people avoid the BS and scamers. I'm not saying that someone can't be successful trading. But, lets keep it realistic. I believe you are saying the same thing. Also, if you traded in the pits then you know that many guys make their money from commissions. And when they do trade it is often a hedge against their business. Johnny
  4. Real math, not spreadsheet geometry. The MLM con men can give me that. Johnny
  5. Yes, a spreadsheet! It will show you how to turn $1 into $1,000,000,000,000,000,000 Then you can do an infomercial!
  6. Siuya, as an options trader I agree with you 100% about some of those option tradesI . In any business those well above average profits (in any business) are called windfalls. I agree with you about speculating for superior returns in certain situations. In a previous post I discussed my ford purchase. I agree that speculation is good on a smaller percentage of assets. My argument is that it is a foolish move when it is the sole trading plan. Johnny
  7. Thalestrader, your post illuminates your BS. IF you are the "great trader" why do you still have a business? Second, businesses do achieve a rate of return. How do you think people value them when they are bought and sold. Look at penny stocks, they are not lying when they say something like a company has grown by 324% in one year. They probably did, they same way a guy with a $10k account can make $1500 one week. Not a realistic return with a big account. Just like the penny stock company with 324% annual growth. That company cannot be sold (other than by penny stock scammers) because they don't provide a return on investment to the buyer. If you don't look at rate of return for your business then something is wrong. You don't look at your HR spending or marketing budget, advertising campaigns, equipment, etc. and look at the rate of return to see how they are working? Its called accounting and they reason for it is to see how much money you make relative to how much you spend. There is a term for that but I forgot.....Oh wait, I remember, its called rate of return. By the way.....Did Loeb make more money from trading or writing is book? Johnny
  8. Most people lose - that is an undisputed truth. So are the stats showing that trading ER & ES with extreme daytrading margins is not going to work. The casino knows the "Truth" that the odds are people will lose at the tables. Yet, there are still people that go there seeking infinite yield! Johnny
  9. Any monkey can run the numbers but the numbers have to have a basis in fact. A target yield affects those items because you need to know your break even point. Business 101 There is never a limit, but of course there are realistic expectations. Trading, speculating, investing, whatever you want to call it is based upon probability. The idea being to have a positive expectancy. Positive expectancy time frequency of opportunity is the yield. You need to realistic about PE and frequency of opportunity. Johnny
  10. Trading is difficult even IF done with an intelligent plan because most people don't have the personality to execute properly. Your theory of trading for an infinite yield is a great way to take math out of the equation. How can you manage slippage, commission, etc when you have no target yield to speak of? I'm not saying that a target yield is a limit, but you need realistic goals and expectations. Johnny
  11. I apologize for my vulgarity. I would like to point out a few things about my trading beliefs that may clarify anything I said. 1. I trade options. I don't trade contracts. Its my style and it works. If anyone is to be successful they need to find their own style - even if others make more doing something different. 2. I know that there are other successful traders - futures, stocks, etc. 3. 10% per week is not realistic on a CONSISTANT basis. Sure you can make big scores here and there but that kind of return is pie in the sky. My anger started when people started speaking with qualitative certainty about quantitative fantasy. 4. Most people cannot make money trading. We all know the 95% stat and its not going to change. And, they don't always lose because they don't have the right knowledge or tools, they lose because they are not cut out for it. You need a certain attitude and mindset. 5. The idea of trading is to make a rate of return. Again, a realistic one. If you want to trade full time, for your sole source of income, you need to have an account large enough for the return to equal a comfortable wage. 6. Scalping the ES or ER is extremely difficult and you chance of success is slim to none and slim has a plane ticket in his hand. 7. Commissions are a real cost and need to be considered along with slippage, bad fills, etc. (another reason for #6.) Johnny
  12. It must be disapointing when someone points out verbal bullshit that is not backed up by real math. And, where not talking advanced calc or trig but basic +-x/. 95% are losers that is a hard fact. Many of those have ALL the tools but can't do it. The one that do are not making the kind of returns you mention. It tantamount to the BS real estate systems on tv at 2 am. I make money trading. Its what I do and have done for 20+ years so I know from experience not some jerkoff's book. I also know that the pipe dreams of trading ES and ER with stupid only- make-your-broker-money margins is a suckers play. Keep searching for the grail! Johnny
  13. The irony is that you are dismissing what me an MM say and nonsense. 10% per week is not possible on a consistent basis. You are trying to dismiss simple math. And again, your entire post is qualitative without any figures to back it up. 60% per year is a phenominal return realized by some top traders that I know. That is where reality lies not 10,000% in a year. During the financial meltdown, I bought ford with a cost basis of around 2.20 per share and sold 1/2 the position north of $11. I still have the other half. That was an outstanding "investment" some would say great trade. You're philosophy would say great speculation. Indeed I speculated. That is not my normal play. I'm not really an active stock guy. The economy provided an easy opportunity an I took it. The reason I don't play the stock market often is because those opportunities are rare. My general trading program yields me better than 20% in most years. Can you really call that merely generating a return in excess of inflation ? Now, the irony is that even if you are correct and off-the-chart returns are possible, 95% of people can't do it. So, don't you think its better if those 95% could make a fair return on their investment than lose their money?
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